Miguel Cabrera drove in three more runs Thursday night, bringing his season total to 55 in just 45 games (Miguel played in every Tigers game this year). That helped the Tigers squeak by the Twins 7-6. Simulating the rest of the season based on the frequency of base situations and RBI in those situations that Miguel saw since 2011, 10,000 simulations produce an average of 158 RBI, a minimum of 118 RBI, and maximum of 206 RBI, and 95% of the observations fall between 136 and 182 RBI. Lou Gehrig set the American League record for RBI in a season with 184 in 1931. Cabrera’s 95% confidence interval is starting to creep into that territory. His current pace (162*RBI/Team Games) is 198, which would break Hack Wilson‘s MLB record of 191 RBI set in 1930.
Cabrera’s season is becoming historical in more than just RBI. In fact, his high RBI total is due to his ability to put the ball in play for hits. He’s batting .391, on a pace for 259 hits. That would be just three short of Ichiro Suzuki‘s record of 262. So right now, Cabrera is positioning himself for a second triple crown, a shot at an RBI record, a shot at the hit record, and a shot at hitting .400. Why? Look at the following graph (click the image for a larger view):
Cabrera and Strikeouts
Miguel pulled off a mean feat, drastically cutting his strikeout rate during a period of a rapid increase for the majors. Fewer strikeouts means more balls in play. Combine that with an extremely high number of runners on base, and you have an RBI monster. Combine few strikeouts with a very high BABIP and a ton of home runs, and you have a plate capable of hitting .400.
Cabrera may change the paradigm of a power hitter, one that doesn’t strike out much. Maybe that’s the way the K trend gets reversed.
Wow, if he pulls this off…
I can’t tell, did you take into account how well he has been hitting in certain situations? Here are his AVG and SLG in some situations
Bases Empty 0.329 0.553
Runners On 0.444 0.828
RISP 0.525 0.932
He is hitting much better in ROB and RISP cases than other wise. He has not done this for his career. Here are the career numbers. Just a bit bitter than with Bases Empty
Bases Empty 0.31 0.562
Runners On 0.331 0.57
RISP 0.337 0.559
Since you are using his RBI rates since 2011, here are his splits for 2011 & 2012
2012
Bases Empty 0.32 0.622
Runners On 0.34 0.588
RISP 0.356 0.58
2011
Bases Empty 0.312 0.532
Runners On 0.379 0.643
RISP 0.388 0.673
So in his career, his AVG with RISP is .027 higher than with bases empty. Here are the differences each of the last 3 years, 2011-13
.066
.036
.196
Can anyone consistently hit that much better with RSIP?
Cabrera is at 30%. His highest ever was 26%, last year it was 21% and for his career it is 22%.
I meant to say that his his line drive %
Cyril Morong » That’s the real question. Joey Votto manages to maintain a very high career BABIP, around .360. His career line drive rate is 25%, but well over that the last three seasons. It was over 30% last year and 30% this year, but both years are short (due to injury in 2012, and the start of the season in 2013).
Thanks. Do you know what the highest LD% is ever for a qualifier?
Cyril Morong » I do not. You may want to direct that question to someone at FanGraphs.