Can the Orioles help Chris Davis watch an extra ball leave the yard in 2013? Photo: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

One of the interesting aspects of the AL RBI race is that Chris Davis keeps up with Miguel Cabrera despite fewer times at the plate. Davis came to the pate 393 times this season, Cabrera 428 times. Both played all but one team game in 2013, and the Orioles played two more games than the Tigers. So Davis averages 4.1 PA per game played while Cabrera averages 4.6.

Two factors combine to contribute to this difference, lineup slot and team OBP. Cabrera bats third and the Tigers OBP stands at .348. Davis bats fifth, and the Orioles team OBP stands at .316. For Cabrera to come to bat five times in a game, the previous 38 batters need to reach base 12 (26 outs, 12 on base). For purposes of this calculation, we’ll ignore base runners removed. The probability of at least 12 of the first 38 batters reaching base with a team OBP of .348 is 0.72, or 72%. So Cabrera has a pretty good chance of batting five times in a game.

For Davis, batting fifth, to come up five times in a game, the first 40 batters need to reach base 14 times. The probability of that happening for a team with a .316 OBP is 0.38, or 38%. That’s pretty close to half as often as Cabrera gets to bat five times, and 0.5 PA/Game is the difference we see between the two. If Davis would move up to fourth, his probability of batting five times would go up to 0.47, and moving him up to third would put him at 0.56.

The Orioles splits show their #3 hitters performing poorly. It strikes me that both Davis and the Orioles would benefit from moving him to the third slot. Their one-two hitters get on base okay. The four-five hitters slug well, moving base runners around. The third slot is a black hole between the two right now.

Buck Showalter, however, may have built his lineup around what he believes are the intrinsic talent level of his players, and half a season of stats isn’t enough to change his mind. I would buy that argument. He may also feel that Davis is comfortable in his role, and that lineup order does not make that much difference in scoring. That would be reasonable. With 66 games left, however, a move from fifth to third would give Davis about 12 more plate appearances. With him hitting a home run every 10 PA this season, it might mean one more home run on the year. That could be the difference between tying and breaking a record.