July 19, 2013

NL West Review

The NL West ranks as the weakest division in the majors this season, which actually makes for an exciting race for first place. Teams have little chance at the wild card, so they win the division or they are out.

Arizona Diamondbacks, 50-45, 1st place. The Diamondbacks have the fifth best record in the National League.

Strengths: The Diamondbacks boast the best defense in the NL according to UZR. They do well in both range and in fielding the ball cleanly. The offense hits a ton of doubles, and draws a high number of walks (which is actually not a bad combination for scoring runs, since doubles often move runners from first to home.

Weaknesses: The offense does not generate a lot of home run power given their home park. The DBacks opponents have out-homered Arizona 100-80.

The pitching staff has no obvious strengths or weaknesses overall, but they do have some extreme pitchers, e.g. Patrick Corbin and Ian Kennedy.

Outlook: This is a decent team, which should finish the season over .500. That might be enough to win the division.

Los Angeles Dodgers, 47-47, 2nd place.

Strengths: Getting on base. The Dodgers do a good job for an NL team of collecting hits and drawing walks. They are tied for third in the NL in OBP at .324. (League average is .314.) Dodgers pitchers do a fine job of striking out batters, needed as opponents have a high BABIP against the team.

Weaknesses: Despite the good OBP, the Dodgers rank low in runs scored. They have hit poorly with men on base, although I’m not sure that a weakness or just bad luck. The Dodgers composite lineup has two much of the OBP in the middle of the lineup, setting up the weak bottom of the lineup that can’t deliver. I suppose that makes it a managerial weakness.

Outlook: The Dodgers are a moving target. They’ve had so many injuries and new people contributing that on any given day it’s tough to know what the lineup looks like going forward. If Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp get healthy at the same time, does Yasiel Puig sit? There’s more than enough talent potential there for the Dodgers to win the division, now we need to see if they can execute.

Colorado Rockies, 46-50, 3rd place.

Strengths: Power. The Rockies pitcher do an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, having allowed just 74 home runs this season. That’s the third lowest total in the National League. The hitters own the highest slugging percentage in the NL, but that’s partly a park effect. Interestingly, the Rockies hit about the same number of doubles and homers at home and on the road, but they hit 19 triples in the big park in Denver, just two on the road. The offense also hits into few double plays

Weaknesses: The pitching staff strikes out few batters, so they allow a fairly high BA (.270, both at home and on the road). The pitchers deal with a lot of men on base, as they give up a decent number of walks, too.

Outlook: The pitching shows no difference home and road, so if the offense could do the same the Rockies would walk away with the division. Otherwise, they’re a potential .500 team. If they get lucky and play a few games beyond that, they could win the division.

San Francisco Giants, 43-51, 4th place.

Strengths: The defense is pretty good, the pitchers are very good at striking out batters, and the offense collects lots of hits.

Weaknesses: The pitchers walk a high number of batters, and the Giants staff as a whole gets hammered once men are on base.

Outlook: The Giants pitchers should be better than this. It almost seems that mistakes lead to a cascade of bad results for them. Tim Lincecum has shown improvement lately, and San Francisco needs Matt Cain to do the same if they are going to compete for the division title.

San Diego Padres, 42-54, 5th place.

Strengths: Tough to find anything the Padres do really well. They do steal well, with an 81% SB%, second in the NL. They don’t hit into many double plays, but they don’t put many men on base, either.

Weaknesses: The pitchers are poor in all aspects of the three-true outcomes, with a low K rate, and an worse than average walk and home run rates.

Outlook: Like most of the teams in this division, there’s nothing really great or terrible about the Padres. Starting from scratch, they would have as good a chance as any other of the western teams at winning the division. At this point, they need to climb out of a deep hole, with much less than half a season left.

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