The Indians beat the Twins 5-1 Saturday afternoon and control the AL Wild Card race. The win gives Cleveland sole possession of the top spot, so the worst that could happen to them is they fall into a tie with one or two of the remaining contenders, the Rays and the Rangers. A Cleveland win tomorrow means they host the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday.
The chance still exists for a three-way tie, however. Given the above .500 winning percentages of the teams, the probability of the three-way tie is .136, or about 1 in 7.4. That’s a little better than if you consider the teams 50/50 to win each game. There is only one way in eight that the massive tie happens. Cleveland has to lose, and the Rangers and Rays have to win.
With Texas and Tampa Bay tied, we may also get a playoff game for the second wild card slot. Here’s a handy guide:
| Indians | Rangers | Rays | Playoff? |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | W | W | One game between Rays and Rangers |
| W | W | L | None |
| W | L | W | None |
| L | W | W | Massive Tie! |
| W | L | L | One game between Rays and Rangers |
| L | W | L | None |
| L | L | W | None |
| L | L | L | One game between Rays and Rangers |
So there is a 50% chance of a playoff game on Monday.
Tampa Bay plays at 1 PM EDT, Cleveland plays at 2 PM EDT, and Texas plays at 3 PM EDT. We should have a good idea of what’s happening by four PM EDT. With luck, the Rangers game will matter for a three-way.