Jackie Bradley, Jr. hopes his MLB numbers in 2014 better reflect his minor league history. Photo: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
The series on team offense begins with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished first in the majors in 2013 with 5.27 runs scored per game.
The CBSSports.com projected lineup that John Farrell may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.24
- Probable lineup: 5.17
- Worst lineup: 4.92
- Regressed lineup: 4.71
Farrell once again does a good job getting the right players grouped together in the lineup. The LAT likes the sequence of Daniel Nava, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, and Mike Napoli. The LAT would prefer this group ordered 9-1-2-3-4, while Farrell puts them 2-3-4-5-6, flipping Bogaerts and Napoli.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. could be the wild card that makes this lineup beat their projections. He seemed over-matched in the majors last season, but his minor league numbers indicate he should do a good job of getting on base. If that happens, he’s serve well as a secondary lead-off man batting ninth.
I would also be remiss if I didn’t bring up the yearly potential fall of David Ortiz. He’s play 2014 as a 38-year-old. At his age, a huge fall-off in production would not be unusual. Ortiz does seem to beat the odds every year, working hard to stay in shape. Then again, Bradley playing better and Ortiz playing worse could balance out. This should be a very good team on offense.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in the series: