The division continues with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Boston Red Sox

• Position Player WAR: 22.4
• Starters and Closer: 19.2
• Core Total: 41.6

The Red Sox come into the season with the highest core WAR in the division. What makes them stand out, however, is their group of pitchers. Note that none of them come bring a Cy Young type total to the season, but no one brings a poor total either. Jon Lester owns the high at 4.3, while Jake Peavy takes the low at a very respectable 2.4. That total would be outstanding for any fifth starter. They are also in the range where a bad year by one could be balanced by a good year for another.

The offense offers plenty of upside as we’re not yet sure what Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, Jr. will do over a full season. Both posted outstanding OBPs in the minors, and neither has reached his prime. The sky should be the limit for Bogaerts as he goes into his age 21 season. Someone who becomes a regular starter at that age has a good chance of becoming a great players. Improvements by those two could easily account for any fall off from the older veterans on the team.

The Red Sox start the season in a very good position to repeat as division champions.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position Player WAR: 28.1
• Starters and Closer: 11.8
• Core Total: 39.9

I’m impressed that the Rays score the best position player core in the division. The team tends to be a great pitching and defensive squad with enough offense to support that. Granted, defense helps the WARs of the position players, but Evan Longoria, James Loney, and the annually unappreciated Ben Zobrist give the offense a solid core. Wil Myers, with a 2.4 WAR at age 22, gives the Rays some upside as well.

While the pitching at first glance does not measure up to the Red Sox, it is a young maturing staff with plenty of potential Chris Acher, Alex Cobb, and Matt Moore are all in their early primes, each with at least two strong categories in the three true outcomes. This is a rotation ready to blossom, and if they do the team may very well surpass the Red Sox.

Baltimore Orioles

• Position Player WAR: 23.6
• Starters and Closer: 12.3
• Core Total: 35.9

Can the Orioles compete once again with a patch work of players? No gets more out of duct tape and bailing wire than Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. The come into the season a bit in a hole with Manny Machado starting the season on the disabled list. He, along with Chris Davis, were the two players to post WARs over 6.0. They’ll need something close to that again, as there are some holes in the outfield where the Orioles may just keep their heads above replacement level.

The rotation is solid, but not spectacular. If Ubaldo Jimenez can continue his good pitching from the latter part of the 2014 season, the Orioles will make a very strong bid for the wild card.

New York Yankees

• Position Player WAR: 17.9
• Starters and Closer: 13.6
• Core Total: 31.5

The good news about the Yankees is that there is little downside to this team. Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira all return from poor or injury riddled seasons, seasons out of context for their careers. If Jeter and Teixeira stay healthy, they won’t post 0 WAR, and they may even get up to three or four WAR each. If Sabathia can adjust to his diminished velocity by painting the corners better, he could rebound a couple of WAR. Masahiro Tanaka is a wild card, but if the turns out to be more Yu Darvish than Kei Igawa, he could do much better than the two I wrote in for his WAR. All in all, those four players could provide the Yankees with 10 to 12 WAR above the core value here, and that puts the team right into contention for the AL East title.

Of course, the other scenario is that the Jeter and Teixeira injuries continue to haunt them, Sabathia continues to give up home runs, and Tanaka can’t perform as well in the majors as he does in spring training. Neither of the position players hit well in the spring, but both pitchers were outstanding. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I would not put too much stock into all four of them having very good seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position Player WAR: 19.6
• Starters and Closer: 7.3
• Core Total: 26.9

The Blue Jays were picked by many to win the division in 2013, but most of their big moves did not work out. Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, and Josh Johnson could not recapture their former superstar status. Jose Bautista played well when healthy, but could not last the entire season. A clean Melky Cabrera posted a negative WAR.

There is still talent on this team. Reyes and Dickey are still here, and big bounce backs would make the Jays a much better team. Bautista might stay injury free and give the team a big power boost over a full season. Ryan Goins could develop into a fine offensive player, Brandon Morrow could return to his former form. That’s a lot that has to go right, however.

Probability of winning the division

• Red Sox 40%
• Rays 35%
• Orioles 15%
• Yankees 8%
• Blue Jays 2%

Last year, I thought any of the five teams could easily win the AL East. This year seems to come down to the Red Sox and Rays, and the Orioles having an outside chance. We’ll see if the Yankees can surprise again.