March 28, 2024

Best Batter Today

The 2024 season begins with Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees, Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, and Bryce Harper of the Phillies at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The scores went down by 0.25 points a day during the off season. That helps eliminate players out of the game, but it also helps give a boost to early good games in the season.

The formula takes 97% of the previous score, and adds in 30% of the park adjusted game score. So the higher the score, the less a great game helps raise up a player. Because Betts started the season with a lower score, excellent series in South Korea allowed him to quickly rise into the top five.

March 28, 2024

Happy Opening Day II!

After a preview of the 2024 last week in South Korea, the 2024 MLB season begins in earnest Thursday afternoon. Rain already postponed two east coast games, but the thirteen other games get underway between 3 PM and 10 PM EDT. The Angels and Orioles get things started at 3 PM. Enjoy the day!

March 27, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL East

The division previews finish with the AL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

New York Yankees

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.61
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.18
  • Core Winning Percentage: .643

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both project to over eight RC/G. Two players generating that much offense covers a lot of ills. That’s especially true when the team owns core set of pitchers who are the best in the division. Note that despite a poor season in 2023, Carlos Rodon still projects to be very good, as his 2023 makes up a small part of the projection. Nestor Cortes also comes in below four RC/G, and Gerrit Cole is waiting in the wings. The Yankees right now have the depth to sustain the Cole injury.

That wasn’t true of the offense in 2023, and may not be true this season. I suspect there is upside with Anthony Rizzo regaining his brain health. Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both hit well in spring training. If those two sluggers are back to their 80% of their old selves, the Yankees have the depth to survive a stubbed toe. This could be a very good season in The Bronx.

Baltimore Orioles

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.39
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
  • Core Winning Percentage: .615

The Orioles lineup consists of seven players in their prime years. The front office brought along their talent to mature at the same time, and now they have a chance to build on a division championship. With catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson each over 6.0 RC per game, the Orioles project to be the strongest team in the division up the middle. Offensively, the biggest weakness appears to be at first base; that position, however, tends to be easy to fix.

The rotation should benefit from the addition of Corbin Burnes. That takes pressure off the young Grayson Rodriguez to be the ace. The pair offer a pretty good 1-2 punch for an excellent offense. Bringing in a good veteran like Burnes is what young teams do when they are ready to go to the next level.

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.30
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
  • Core Winning Percentage: .608

I have my doubts about the Rays this season. They are weak offensively up the middle in a division where everyone else is pretty good. As far as the bat is concerned, Jose Caballero is no Wander Franco. Losing both Franco and McClanahan for a full season is a very tough blow.

I do suspect the Rays put a very good defensive team on the field, however, something that is not measured here. If a good defense can drive down the pitcher core RC/G by a quarter of a run, that might give them enough to compete for the division.

This is a good team, I just don’t think they compare as well to recent seasons.

Boston Red Sox

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.44
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
  • Core Winning Percentage: .591

The Red Sox project to own the second best offense in the division in 2024. We know that Rafael Devers shines at the plate, but Triston Casas looks ready to join him. He showed signs of getting on base at a high rate and hitting for power. As he moves into his age 24 season, it’s the right year to take that to the next level.

In addition, there is an upside to a healthy Trevor Story. He ranked in spring training. If can produce a run over his 4.62 projection, the Red Sox core winning percentage should move over .600.

The pitching is the weak spot for the team. Giving Bryan Bello a long-term contract indicates the team believes he will improve his 5.09 RC/G projection, and we’ll see if he can assume the mantle of ace this year. It’s not a bad rotation, and the offense and a decent bullpen could keep them in a division race. It’s a year to be bullish on the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.39
  • Core Winning Percentage: .590

The Blue Jays rank last in the division in Core Winning Percentage, but just a hair behind the Red Sox. In fact this is not a bad team, they just play in a very good, balanced division. I can’t help but think the Blue Jays should be at the top, not the bottom.

Five years ago this was a team on the rise. They brought a long a large group of young players, almost all of them related to other major leaguers. Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette turned into stars, and Guerrero peaked in 2021 at seasonal age 22.

The veterans the Blue Jays brought in to complement that group are now old, and not producing as much. The group projects to be the lowest scoring team in the division. Guerrero is still young enough to find his 2021 form again, but the window is closing on this group to produce a championship.

The pitching side is okay. Alek Manoah‘s fall from the rotation hurt, but maybe the shoulder issue that showed up this spring actually started last year? When a player gets that bad that fast, it’s a good bet there is an injury. If he comes back at full strength in a month or two, that will be a positive for the rest of the season. Right now, however, it looks like the Jays could finish over .500 and last in the division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • New York Yankees 30%
  • Baltimore Orioles 25%
  • Tampa Bay Rays 20%
  • Boston Red Sox 13%
  • Toronto Blue Jays 12%

Any of these teams might get hot, might make the right trade, or find a prospect is ready to contribute and pull away from the rest. In an odd way, despite this being a good division, I can imagine the AL East not sending a wild card to the playoffs. The five teams might beat up on each other enough that none of them have an outstanding record. The upside is that every AL East intra division series should be a good one.

March 27, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL East

The division previews continue with the NL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Atlanta Braves

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.14
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.96
  • Core Winning Percentage: .706

The Braves win super-team status going into the 2024 season. They hold the best RC/G average in the division for core offenses. There are only one of a handful of teams in the majors with a projected core pitching RC/G under 4.0. That combination results in the highest projected core winning percentage in the majors.

In looking at offenses, most team struggle to find one hitter projecting to over 6.0 RC/Game. The Braves boast four of them. Three hitters, Matt Olson, Austin Riley*, and Ronald Acuna Jr. all stand over 7.0 RC/G. It’s not a perfect lineup. Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelanic are a bit weak in power, but at least are not out machines.

*Riley is the George Harrison of the Braves. Really great, but overshadowed by two even greater hitters.

Note that this is a young lineup as well. Olson is the oldest player of the nine, and he turns 30 on Friday. Youth bring high proficiency at a reasonable cost, the Braves trade mark.

The rotation boasts a great young starter in Spencer Strider, three solid veterans, and reclamation project Chris Sale. Sale walked five and struck out 23 in 14 2/3 spring innings, so that might turn out to be four solid veterans.

They are easily the team to beat in the division, and maybe in the majors.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.76
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.85
  • Core Winning Percentage: .691

The Phillies projection puts them in spitting distance of the Braves. Philadelphia owns the best core pitching projection in division with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the way. The three-four starters, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez project to allow RC/G in the low fours, about half a run better per game than the veterans occupying the Braves 3-4 slots.

This means the Phillies offense doesn’t need to be as good as the Braves offense to win, but they are still really good. They also start three hitters who project to over 6.00 RC/G. There probably is upside to Trea Turner‘s 6.06 projection, as he hit poorly through most of 2023.

A big difference with the Braves lineup comes from age. The Phillies star hitters are mostly past prime, and players in their 30s can fall off quickly. Still the Phillies look like one of the best teams in the NL. We could see the top two winning percentages in the league in this division, another example of a great team having to settle for a wild card.

New York Mets

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.15
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.75
  • Core Winning Percentage: .540

I suspect the Mets will improve this season. They came in at -5 wins compared to their Pythagorean projection, and regression to the mean tends to balance that out year to year.

The offense looks a bit weak at this point, but hope exists. Brett Baty hit extremely well in the minors, and with some MLB experience under his belt, there is likely quite a bit of upside to his projection. Pete Alonso produced an off year in 2023, but is still in his prime. Getting J.D. Martinez into the lineup eventually will help.

On the other hand, it’s a rather old lineup, and that could balance the gains from the youngsters doing better.

The starting staff fails to impress. These are older veterans who project to be okay, but the great Mets franchises had great starting pitching.

The main problem with the Mets right now is the lack of a plan. The Braves find great young talent and sign them to long-term contracts. The let free agents go, and manage to replace them with younger, more cost-effective talent. The Phillies do a great job of evaluating free agents and improving the team through that route. It may not be as long-term effective as the Braves strategy, but the Phillies, for the third year in a row, are perfectly capable of winning a World Series.

The Mets have not given any plan a chance to work. With a new front office, they appear to have pulled back from the “Win it all now!” mentality. The Mets have the money to be the Dodgers or the Braves or the Astros. That doesn’t mean winning now, but it could lead to a dominant team for many years.

Miami Marlins

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

I don’t see where the Marlins obviously improved over 2023. Losing Sandy Alcantara hurts a great deal, although he will help out as much as possible. The Tim Anderson signing is a high risk, high reward move, but does not represent an obvious increase in the team’s offense. Luis Arraez probably regresses to his career averages, which is still great, but I don’t expect him to hit .350 again. The offense is not young; one would hope there are prospects coming up through the system.

On the other hand, the rotation is very young, so there is potential for upside there. If the core can get their RC/G down half a run, the Marlins are looking at a third place instead of a fourth place finish. Max Meyer is the key here, as his minor league numbers are much better than Ryan Weathers.

Like the Mets, the Marlins went through some front office upheaval over the last few seasons, so a good plan may not be in place yet.

Washington Nationals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.71
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.58
  • Core Winning Percentage: .416

Why did the Nationals stand pat after a better than expected season? The projections for this core are just terrible. One would think that eating the last year of Patrick Corbin‘s contract and replacing him with their best AAA pitcher might improve the team, but no, the Nationals would rather pay Corbin to pitch badly.

On offense, only three hitters project to be better than 5.0 RC/Game. That should be the floor for most core hitters. Joey Meneses ranks highest at 5.21 runs per game. They did add Jesse Winker at 5.16 RC/G, but that’s hardly a difference maker.

I suspect the National believe that Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore will make strides this season. Here’s an article that talks about their makeup. That’s all fine, but Gray and Gore are not young any more. They are in their early primes and neither delivered an outstanding season in their careers.

There may be prospects knocking on the door. The last CBA was designed to clear the way for those youngsters coming to the majors sooner than later. We’ll see how many come up in time to give the Nationals seven years of control, and how many miss on super two status. The opening day core looks like a team tanking to me.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Atlanta Braves 45%
  • Philadelphia Phillies 35%
  • New York Mets 11%
  • Miami Marlins 8%
  • Washington Nationals 1%

There should be a tight race for first and second, and a tight race for third and fourth. Note that the Nationals have the chance to be historically bad, which will help the Mets and Marlins compete for a wild card, much like the A’s last season helped the AL West put three teams into playoff contention last year.

March 26, 2024

Montgomery Finds a Home

The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to a deal with pitcher Jordan Montgomery:

Left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a free agent deal, pending a physical, a source told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Tuesday night.

Montgomery, 31, started 32 games this past season while compiling a combined 10-11 record with a 3.20 ERA in 188.2 innings for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers.

ESPN.com

I suspect we’ll know more about the deal tomorrow morning. We’ll see how long it takes Montgomery to join the team. He should slide in nicely to the second or third rotation slot.

March 26, 2024

Bad Optics

My post last night took a bit of a shot at Shohei Ohtani‘s use of the word “shocked” in his press conference. If you read the original article, Ohtani (or his new interpreter) used the word three times.

The scene in Casablanca is iconic. I, in fact, don’t believe that I’ve used the word “shocked” to express actual shock. I always use it sarcastically, like, “I’m shocked that a politician would take a bribe!”

So Ohtani uses this word of multiple connotations, and actually uses in the original context of gambling! He suggests a famous movie line in a city all about film.

Where were his PR people? Ohtani didn’t take questions, so this talk should have been written and rehearsed. (Again, he’s in the movie capital of the world.) Someone, during the rehersal, should have said, “Don’t use the word ‘shocked’.”

This was sloppy. Ohtani usually handles the press well. This winter We saw him manipulate the coverage of his free agency, generate publicity for himself by withholding the name of his dog, and build interest with a marriage that is teased before being revealed in full.

As the LA Times notes, the image Ohtani tries to project is someone consumed by baseball, so consumed that nothing else matters:

Believing Ohtani’s story about Mizuhara requires one to believe that Ohtani is who he portrays himself to be, an overgrown yakyu shonen — a boy who lives, eats and breathes baseball — with almost no other interests. His rumored apathy for money could explain how he failed to notice that Mizuhara had stolen millions of dollars from him.

On the other hand, Ohtani is almost 30 years old. He was one of the top students in his high school class, according to Sasaki, and his intelligence is apparent in his quick wit and strong diction. Can someone with his mental capacity live a life of just baseball, baseball, baseball? His recent marriage already showed there was more to him than his profession.

MSN.com

The big question comes down to why would someone so meticulous is everything we do see about him be less meticulous in other important aspects of life?

As a side question, Ohtani flashes a quick wit with strong diction? In English? It must be English, right? If it were translated wit, why mention the diction?

I suspect Ohtani understands English a bit better than we are led to believe. Part of this story is that the translator mislead Ohtani during the Dodgers team meeting. My question would be, “What did you think you heard, and how different was that from what the translator told you?” I do understand that hearing a language is very different from reading or speaking it. I’m just wondering if the translations in this seemed more misunderstood from Ohtani’s point of view, if Ohtani thought he was making more recognition errors than usual. That might have been a red flag to the player.

I am taking a wait and see attitude about this scandal. The news media, MLB, and law enforcement are all looking into this. We’ll get many different opinions, and with luck a clearer picture of what went on.

March 25, 2024

Shohei Renault

It seems Theo Epstein’s grandfather scripted Shohei Ohtani‘s news conference today, in which he addressed the gambling scandal:

Ohtani gave his version of events during a news conference at Dodger Stadium, five days after Mizuhara was fired by the Dodgers in the wake of media inquiries surrounding at least $4.5 million in wire transfers sent from Ohtani’s bank account to a Southern California bookmaking operation that is under federal investigation.

“I am very saddened and shocked someone whom I trusted has done this,” the Japanese star said while sitting next to Will Ireton, the team’s manager of performance operations, who translated.

“Ippei has been stealing money from my account and has been telling lies,” Ohtani said. “I never bet on sports or have willfully sent money to the bookmaker.”

ESPN.com

The IRS is investigating the translator and the bookmaker, while MLB conducts an investigation of its own. We’ll wait to see how this pans out.

March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL West

The division previews continue with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Houston Astros

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.04
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.33
  • Core Winning Percentage: .660

The Astros enter the eighth season of their AL dynasty in extremely good shape to win another title. They managed to replace the stars of past so that six of the nine core batters sit in their prime years, most in their early primes. The one older veteran they kept long term, Jose Altuve, projects to be the second best hitter in the lineup. The Braves were extremely adept at this in the 1990s (and today as well). It’s a very impressive job by the front office. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the two leading prime players on the team, and both are offensive stars, they are a big reason Houston’s 6.04 Position Player RC/G is the best in the division.

The core pitchers look very good as well, although three of them are rather inexperienced. There projections should be take with a great deal of uncertainty in both directions. One thing to watch with the pitchers will be how they do with Yainer Diaz taking over the front line catching duties. Diaz adds a ton to the offense over Martin Maldonado. I suspect his offense will make up for any defense lost from Maldonado’s departure.

The pitching core as a whole should be good enough for the offense, and good enough for another division title.

Seattle Mariners

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
  • Core Winning Percentage: .636

The Mariners did surprisingly well in this analysis, with an impressive core winning percentage. Seattle put together a pitching core that ranks first in the division. Four of the five starters project to RC/G of around four. If you look through all the team evaluated so far, that grouping is rather unusual. George Kirby looks to be the ace, but Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are right with him.

While I’ve seen complaints about the construction of the offense this winter, the team is actually good up the middle. As I love to say, it’s easier to fix problems on the corners than in the middle of the field. Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, and Cal Raleigh give them room to maneuver.

Seattle won’t be the favorite for the division, but there’s no reason they can’t give the Astros a run for their money.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.68
  • Core Winning Percentage: .574

I have come not to trust the Angels projections over the years. Someone gets hurt. Some young player doesn’t live up to expectations. The team can’t pull itself out of a downward spiral.

This team, however, projects to be the best team in the division up the middle, and that is an important marker. A lot of that is Mike Trout projecting to 7.44 RC/G, but catcher Logan O’Hoppe, should be good. He projected well last season as well, but was almost immediately injured.

Of course one tends to believe that their is lots of upside to the Anthony Rendon projection. The Angles need to hope that he pulls a Cody Bellinger, stays healthy, and has a super year.

The pitching staff looks meh. There’s no one great, but no one terrible either.

The Angles have a shot at finishing over .500, and with the expanded playoff system, a team doesn’t need to be that far over .500 to reach the post season. I will not get my hopes up, but the Angels could be a pleasant surprise.

Texas Rangers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.41
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.77
  • Core Winning Percentage: .562

I am as surprised by the Rangers projection as I am by the Angels projection. This is a good young offense, which should be even better with a full season of Evan Carter and rookie Wyatt Langford. I normally put in rookies at 4.5 RC/G, but Wyatt’s minor league numbers look so good I upped him to a 5.0, which might still be an understatement.

The problem comes from the two great starting pitchers on the team, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer each missing at least have the season on the illjured list. The current rotation is not good. While more and more teams are dependent on their bullpens, this group will give the relievers very few days of rest. Bruce Bochy is good at managing his staff, but the offense can’t afford to take a break in 2024. It’s a tough division with four good teams, and right now it looks like a World Series repeat would be difficult.

Oakland Athletics

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.75
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.76
  • Core Winning Percentage: .498

This is a slightly worse Core Winning Percentage than the Athletics projected to last season.

I want to find upside in the offensive lineup. Five of the core hitters are in their early prime years, which should be good. They have little major league experience, however, indicating they may really be career minor leaguers. None of them sport projections that indicate players on the rise, although Musings Marcels likes Zack Gelof much more than the FanGraphs projection.

On the pitching side, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling were good once, but both are past their primes and have not done well lately. Again, it is really difficult to find upside here.

It’s tough to believe the A’s might be worse than last season, but there is no evidence the team tried to get better. Maybe they are taking falling below the 1962 Mets more seriously in 2024.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Houston Astros 35%
  • Seattle Mariners 30%
  • Texas Rangers 19%
  • LAA Angels 17%
  • Oakland Athletics 1%

The Rangers and Angels ranking goes against the projected WL Pct. The Rangers have upside. I am just so jaded by the Angels failing to meet expectations that I just factored into my estimate. I think Seattle fans should be excited for this season. It’s a strong division, with all four contender strong up the middle.

March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL Central

The division previews continue with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.47
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.45
  • Core Winning Percentage: .601

The Reds positioned themselves to take control of the NL Central in 2024. On offense, opponents face no glaring holes; the batting order is consistent top to bottom. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Stephenson sit in the middle of their primes. Elly De La Cruz* and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are young and offer quite a bit of upside. This team should generate runs at a high rate.

*Cruz reminds me of Bo Jackson. I felt Jackson was somewhat overrated offensively, but he was one of the few players I would pay to see perform. Jackson was an exciting, dynamic player. Cruz may fit that model.

The Reds are the strongest team offensively up the middle.

The rotation doesn’t really hold an ace, but none of the starters rank as terrible. The starters and closer are more than good enough for the offense, plus it’s tough to generate a good projection in that ballpark.

If the Reds acquired a superstar hitter in the off season, they might run away with the division. Instead, they’ve developed a cost effective winning team.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.52
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.64
  • Core Winning Percentage: .587

The Cardinals mirror the Dodgers this season, in that they leave me unimpressed with their pitching staff. Both of those teams over the years seemed to maintain a constant flow of minor league talent to the mound, despite winning records that limited draftable talent. This rotation is old, with only Zach Thompson, in his early prime, offering any chance at an upside.

Ryan Helsley ranks as the division’s best closer, but none of the closers are very strong.

The Cardinals offense, however, projects to be the best in the division. They start three batters who project to better than six RC/G, the only team in the division with more than one. They do have a couple of potential holes in Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson, but Winn is young enough to have some upside and prove that projection wrong.

I would be very surprised if the Cardinals repeated their last place finish is 2023. They did a good job rebuilding the offense, and we’ll see who they have in the pitching pipeline of the veteran starters falter.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.44
  • Core Winning Percentage: .568

The Cubs bring the best core pitching in the division to the table, although they are only 0.01 runs better than the Reds. Chicago may very well be better than that number, as Kyle Hendricks‘ poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 drive up his RC/G. We will see if he can continue to compensate for a lower K rate by limiting walks and home runs. A lot will also depend on how well Shota Imanaga adjusts to the majors after pitching in Japan. He may well be the ace.

Offensively, the Cubs are in the same position with Cody Bellinger as with Kyle Hendricks. Two poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 moderate the expectations for Bellinger repeating his outstanding 2023. There is plenty of prime talent in the rest of the order, so if those two veterans can keep things turned around, the Cubs will compete for the division title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

The Brewers took a step back this season, especially in the core pitching. While Freddy Peralta projects to be the best starter in the division, the rest of the rotation and the closer offer unimpressive results. You can see why Craig Counsell, wanted to leave. He doesn’t want to rebuild, and the Cubs offer a much better chance of winning soon.

The team looks less impressive on offense as well, although that was not their strength in 2023. They project to be the lowest scoring team in the division in 2024. The silver lining her is that the offense is decently strong up the middle. If by chance they find themselves in contention, it’s easier to improve offensively on the corners than at the skill positions.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.91
  • Core Winning Percentage: .519

The Pirates did not seem to do much to build on their fourth place finish in 2023. Mostly, they once again failed to put decent talent around their one great hitter, Bryan Reynolds. Maybe they finally get a good season out of Oneil Cruz. Maybe Ke’Bryan Hayes does more than play great defense. The young hitters aren’t that young anymore, and if they don’t hit their strides soon, this will go down as a failed development cycle.

The offense needs to be good to compensate for the poor core pitching, projected to be the worst in the division. Maybe rookie Jared Jones turns out to be good, but there’s nothing in his minor league numbers that scream ace.

Maybe there is talent waiting in the minors, but this looks like another disappointing season for the Pirates.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Cincinnati Reds 45%
  • St. Louis Cardinals 25%
  • Chicago Cubs 20%
  • Milwaukee Brewers 7%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates 3%

If you like catchers who can hit, this is a great division. Given the overall lack of pitching talent, I expect rather high scoring games when these teams meet head to head.

The Reds should take the title, but I don’t think they will run away. The big question for me is will the Cardinals or the Cubs give them the most trouble?

March 23, 2024

Angelos Passes

Orioles owner Peter Angelos died today, Saturday, at the age of 94:

Angelos had been ill for several years. His family announced his death in a statement thanking the caregivers “who brought comfort to him in his final years.”

Angelos’ death comes as his son John is in the process of selling the Orioles to a group headed by Carlyle Group Inc. co-founder David Rubenstein. Peter Angelos’ public role diminished significantly in his final years. According to a lawsuit involving his sons in 2022, he had surgery after his aortic valve failed in 2017.

“I offer my deepest condolences to the Angelos family on the passing of Peter Angelos,” Rubenstein said in a statement. “Peter made an indelible mark first in business and then in baseball. The city of Baltimore owes him a debt of gratitude for his stewardship of the Orioles across three decades and for positioning the team for great success.” 

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends, and to all those in the Orioles organization.

Angelos bought the Orioles at the end of the 1993 season. In the 30 years he owned the team they accumulated a 2191-2497 record, fifth worst in the majors, and by far the worst in the AL East. It is sad he was not able to restore the glory of one of the great teams of the second half of the twentieth century.

March 23, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL Central

The division previews continue with the AL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.46
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.43
  • Core Winning Percentage: .603

The Twins come in with the best core offense in the division. Second baseman Edouard Julien and third baseman Royce Lewis lead the way, both coming in at well over six runs created per game. Both are entering their primes this year, meaning they are still likely to improve. Five of the nine batters expected to get most of the starts are in their early primes, a good age for an offense.

The Twins also get Byron Buxton back in centerfield for as long as he can stay healthy. His projection may have some upside, also.

The pitching is fine. There is no one great and no one terrible. They are all in the middle of their primes. So Minnesota has a team of good talent at a good age. That can win in this weak division.

Cleveland Guardians

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.31
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.31
  • Core Winning Percentage: .603

The Guardians tie the Twins for the best core winning percentage in the division, but do so by projecting to the best core pitching in the AL Central. Cleveland employs three outstanding starters in Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Triston McKenzie. Carlos Carrasco returns to Cleveland, this time as a Guardian. He won the fifth spot in the rotation as he posted a good ERA in spring training. His ability to strike out batters did not improve, however, over his disastrous 2023. We’ll see if he really found a way to survive without Ks.

Emmanuel Clase gives the Guardians the on shutdown closer in the division.

On offense, they are just a tick behind the Twins, but with Jose Ramirez their only star. Bo Naylor looks to provide a good bit of punch at catcher. Ramirez is the only projected offensive starter over 30, and so the Guardians could easily improve on their projection.

The Twins-Guardians games this year should be a lot of fun as these two good young teams vie for the division championship.

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.99
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.55
  • Core Winning Percentage: .546

The Tigers appear to be moving in the right direction. Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson project to be a good 1-2 punch in the front of the rotation. It’s seems like Jack Flaherty has been around forever, but he’s only in his seasonal age 28 year and a rebound by him could five the Tigers three solid starters.

The Tigers have some youth on offense, and bat the best ones at the top of the order. The veterans on the offensive side are there to fill holes until more prospect can come along. True rookie Colt Keith makes the team after hitting well at AA and AAA in 2023. There is a lot of upside to his 4.5 RC/G projection.

The Tigers are on their way up. They need to have everything go right, or more prospects emerge as the season progresses. They are close enough for a shot at a division title.

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.01
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.81
  • Core Winning Percentage: .525

The Royals, too, are moving in the right direction, just not as fast as the Tigers. There is some youth there, but KC still features more veterans and more players in the middle of their primes than the Tigers.

On offense, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are the rising stars. Pasquantino, at seasonal age 25, is past prospect status at this point. Both will need to up their game to get the Royals offense moving.

On the pitching side, Cole Ragans looks like a decent ace, but there is not all that much behind him.

The Royals age indicates this team should be maturing into their best. It doesn’t look like their best won’t be enough to compete for the division title.

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.76
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.98
  • Core Winning Percentage: .478

The White Sox are treading water. There is talent on offense with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. Garrett Crochet may turn out to be a good starter. There is not much complementing talent, however. There are no very young players on offense to watch develop, and while starting pitcher Nick Nastrini is a true rookie, he is 24 and didn’t exactly light up the minor leagues.

We’ll have to see if the White Sox start bringing other youngsters as the season progresses, but right now they appear to be playing for a good draft pick.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Minnesota Twins 35%
  • Cleveland Guardians 35%
  • Detroit Tigers 20%
  • Kansas City Royals 9%
  • Chicago White Sox 1%

The division has no superstar talent. There are no batters who project to over 7 runs create per game, and no starting pitchers who project to under 3 runs created per game. These are the everyman teams. It’s possible that the division is decided by one of the youngsters blossoming into that superstar and carrying the team to title.

March 23, 2024

Martinez to the Mets

J.D. Martinez agrees to terms with the Mets:

J.D. Martinez, the top remaining offensive player on the market, reached agreement with the Mets on a one-year contract worth $12 million, pending a physical, according to an industry source. The Post’s Jon Heyman first reported the deal.

The source confirmed that under terms of the contract Martinez will receive $4.5 million this season with the rest deferred, allowing the Mets to reduce their luxury-tax hit from the signing.

Martinez will receive $1.5 million in deferrals each year from 2034-38.

NYPost.com

So it’s not really a $12 million deal. Like the Dodgers deal with Shohei Ohtani, the money used for the luxury tax calculation will be somewhat less. Unless there are performance bonuses, the Mets are getting a two WAR hitter for the price of a one WAR hitter. This is not free agency’s finest hour.

March 23, 2024

Days of Intrigue

Damage control not performance dominates the start of the 2024 MLB season. ESPN reports on the dissension in the Major League Baseball Players Association:

Earlier in the afternoon, a coordinated effort by players had unfolded to replace Bruce Meyer, the union’s deputy executive director and lead labor negotiator, with Harry Marino, the lawyer who had organized minor league players who eventually would become members of the MLBPA. Near the end of the call, the matter had been put to an informal poll, and a significant majority of the dozens of players in attendance raised their hands in favor of change. Faced with his hand-picked No. 2 receiving a no-confidence vote from a large portion of the union’s executive board, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told the group that it was his decision whether Meyer would be removed from his job.

He was not wrong. Union rules grant Clark, not the players, the right to hire and fire. But the sentiment espoused by Clark in that moment roiled players throughout the game Tuesday and Wednesday, enveloping the union with the sort of palace intrigue typically reserved for a Sunday night HBO series. The veteran was among a large swath of players troubled by Clark’s comment after hearing him say consistently, over more than a decade running the MLBPA, that players run the union. The fallout cast questions across the rank and file not just about Meyer’s murky future but Clark’s long-term viability as executive director.

ESPN.com

One thing I learned from the article is that arbitration contracts are not guaranteed.

Clark failed to fight the collapse of the original union model that limited free agency would drive up prices for all players. Two things killed that. First, the powerful long-time owners who fought the the demise of the reserve clause died out. At that point, the opposition to free agency disappeared. The people running baseball only knew free agency, so they worked to mold it to their advantage, not end it.

Second, front offices became more professional. They became better at valuing players. They also became better at gaming the system through service time manipulation and long-term contracts to young players. They found the cost effective strategy was:

  • Bring up a 22 year old a month into the season, giving them seven years of control
  • Offer the player a contract through age 30, the first seven years the salary being set by what the players might expect through renewals and arbitration.
  • Let the player go at age 30-31 into free agency, where the market no longer favored past prime players.

This pattern was clear by the time Clark took over as head of the MLBPA, but instead of fighting this he gave MLB the power to limit the money given in amateur signings, thinking that money would flow to major league players. That didn’t happen. Is it any wonder younger players are disillusioned? The fight waged in 2022 should have happened ten years earlier.

Then their is the Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal. Nate Silver wrote an excellent evaluation of the situation yesterday, and updated it now that MLB opened a formal investigation into the affair. His big question, did Ohtani make the bets?

I’m not so skeptical. I don’t know Ohtani, obviously. But as a world-famous professional athlete, he’s almost by definition an extremely competitive, wealthy young man in an industry known for being tolerant of gambling (again, MLB players are allowed to place legal bets in sports other than baseball). That profile checks a lot of boxes for someone with a high propensity to gamble. And $4.5 million is money that he can more than afford to lose. His ability to hit a 99-mph fastball, or to throw one, doesn’t particularly provide testament to his character or judgment — and for that matter, Ohtani has shown some considerable lack of judgment no matter which story is true, even if it’s just by trusting Mizuhara too much.

Then there is the fact that a huge percentage of Ohtani’s compensation in his new contract is deferred — all but $2 million of the $70 million. But I’m not so sure that reads well for him either. It’s actually pretty irresponsible financially, since you are giving up a lot of expected value by not investing in e.g. index funds. It may be suggestive of someone who is trying to impose constraints on himself — a gambler self-limiting — because he has had problems in the past.

NateSilver.net

On that last note, Ohtani makes plenty of money from other sources, so I’m not sure how deferring his salary would really help him limit a gambling problem.

Here is the timeline of how the information came to ESPN. Note the last item:

4:13 p.m. ET Wednesday (5:13 a.m. Thursday in Seoul): The Ohtani spokesman tells ESPN that what has actually happened in recent days is that Mizuhara has been able to control information to Ohtani in his position as the interpreter, and that Ohtani hadn’t realized what was happening until the postgame clubhouse meeting, when a new interpreter was brought in.

“He didn’t know any of it, didn’t know there was some inquiry,” the spokesman says. “After the game, that’s when he found out. … He didn’t know what the f— was going on.”

ESPN.com

I suspect New Balance is a bit perturbed.

March 22, 2024

Royals Community Commitment

Sam McDpwell at the Kansas City Star suddenly learns everything he can about Community Benefit Agreements (CBA) to analyze the releases by the Royals and Chiefs ahead of the April second vote. He finds them lacking:

The announcements came with summaries of “historic” future agreements, but oddly not the historic agreements themselves. And when it comes to CBAs, the experts’ first instruction is to comb through the details. Here, they ask: Where are they?

“This letter is more like a press release than anything approaching a CBA,” said Julian Gross, a lawyer in California who has taken part in more than two dozen CBA negotiations over the last quarter-century. “The whole idea is the public can access the full community benefits guarantees of a project. “So fundamentally, out of the gate, this isn’t what it purports to be — at least until they show us an agreement.”

KansasCity.com

It’s a very good primer on CBAs in general, and what works and what doesn’t.

I also wonder, with all the money the teams are committing to the community, wouldn’t it be cheaper to build the stadiums themselves? The owners often get accused of greed, but there is plenty of greed on the political side as well.

March 21, 2024

Best Batter Today

Mookie Betts posted the two best game scores of the last two days, a 60 on Wednesday and an 86 today to vault to four in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge occupy the top three slots respectively, while Bryce Harper drops to fifth place. Betts’ old teammate Xander Bogaerts moves up to eight, with Manny Machado taking the tenth slot.

Betts is six for nine on the season with a double, home run, and two walks. He has yet to strike out.

March 21, 2024

Ban Ohtani?

This article raises the question of suspending Shohei Ohtani over his alleged payments to an illegal bookmaker to help his interpreter. Note that the interpreter said, Ohtani paid the debt, but Ohtani’s people said the pitcher was robbed of the money.

Ohtani, however, might have broken the law if he paid Mizuhara’s gambling debt, according to I. Nelson Rose, a gambling law scholar and professor emeritus at Whittier College.

“If he paid the debt knowing it was for illegal gambling, there is the potential for fairly serious federal penalties,” Rose said. “There is a federal statute that says, in effect, that if you help an illegal gambling operator collect debts, you are in the business of gambling. Even if he was only doing this to help a friend, he certainly knew he was helping the bookmaker collect the debt.”

LATimes.com

Why could that lead to a ban? Here’s section three of the gambling rule (emphasis added):

(3) Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee who places bets with illegal book makers, or agents for illegal book makers, shall be subject to such penalty as the Commissioner deems appropriate in light of the facts and circumstances of the conduct. Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee who operates or works for an illegal bookmaking business shall be subject to a minimum of a one-year suspension by the Commissioner. For purposes of this provision, an illegal bookmaker is an individual who accepts, places or handles wagers on sporting events from members of the public as part of a gaming operation that is unlawful in the jurisdiction in which the bets are accepted.

So was Ohtani robbed, or did he help a friend?

March 21, 2024

March 21, 2024

March 21, 2024

Singles Fest

The Padres lead the Dodgers 9-6 in the top of the fourth inning, both teams collecting nine hits so far, both teams with seven singles. The four extra-base hits in the game are the only ones in the series so far, and no one has homered. It seems this park plays a bit like Kaufman Stadium, where the extra-base hits tend to stay inside the park.

March 21, 2024

March 21, 2024

March 21, 2024

Triple Trouble

Xander Bogaerts singles and Fernando Tatis Jr.gets hit by a pitch as the Padres set the table for Jake Cronenworth in the top first inning. Cronenworth triples to drive in both runners, making the first extra-base hit of the 2024 season a three bagger. This may be the only point in the season when the total of triples is greater than either the total of doubles or home runs.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers has yet to record an out in his big league debut as he follows with a walk to Manny Machado.

Cronenworth came into the season with 21 career triples in four seasons.

Update: Luis Campusano, batting seventh, doubles down the leftfield line, and the lone reign of the triple is short. The Padres now lead the Dodgers 4-0.

Update: All nine Padres bat in the first as the team takes a 5-0 lead. Yamamoto does strike out two, but throws 42 pitches.

March 20, 2024

House Divided

There seems to be some disagreement in the MLBPA as to who should fill the role of chief negotiator.

During an online meeting Monday, players pushed for union executive director Tony Clark to remove deputy executive director Bruce Meyer, who led talks for the 2022 collective bargaining agreement.

Some in the group pushing for change want to replace Meyer with Harry Marino, who helped minor leaguers organize and join the players’ association in late 2022. Marino was hired for the union staff in September 2022, helped reach the first minor league labor contract with Major League Baseball, then left last July.

“The players who sought me out want a union that represents the will of the majority,” Marino said in a statement. “Scott Boras is rich because he makes — or used to make — the richest players in the game richer.”

Marino added that it was “alarming” for Boras to be defending Clark and Meyer.

Chron.com

This is going to be a fascinating battle. One reason the MLBPA was so successful is that they concentrated on the framework for salaries, not the salaries themselves. They concentrated on freeing players to make as much money as possible without destroying the meritocracy that makes some players fabulously wealthy, and others just a bit wealthy.

Marino might be a more traditional union organizer. Maybe he wants union control of salaries, distributing money more evenly over all the players in MLB. That might make the rank and file happy, and it might even make the owners happy, but I suspect it’s the wrong way to go.

My hope is that Marino wants free agency at a younger age or fewer years of service. If that’s true, he is the man for the job.

I was quite surprised when the minor league unionization went very easily and quickly. Whether you like Rob Manfred or not, he is a very good labor negotiator with a proven track record. Maybe he and his crew saw that the people leading the minor league charge were very different that those leading the MLBPA, and somehow that might lead to a situation like this, where the union becomes a bit weaker through dissension. We shall see.

March 20, 2024

Good Thing Ohtani Deferred the Money

The Dodgers fired Shohei Ohtani‘s translator. It is alleged he was a hive of scum and villainy.

Interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, 39, was let go from the team Wednesday following reports from The Los Angeles Times and ESPN about his alleged ties to an illegal bookmaker. The team is in South Korea this week as Ohtani makes his Dodgers debut.

“In the course of responding to recent media inquiries, we discovered that Shohei has been the victim of a massive theft and we are turning the matter over to the authorities,” law firm Berk Brettler LLP said in a statement Wednesday.

Chron.com

The story is not quite clear, but it seems Mizuhara ran up a lot of gambling debts and used Ohtani’s money to pay them off.

March 20, 2024

March 20, 2024

Dodgers Win

The Dodgers beat the Padres 5-2 to take the opening game of the 2024 MLB season. Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers managed to last five innings, while Yu Darvish of the Padres only went 3 2/3. Even though the Dodgers trailed 2-1 as both teams went into the bullpen, the Dodgers avoided using their lower ranked relievers. That made the difference as the Padres pen got roughed up for four runs in the eighth inning.

The Dodgers batting eye was in place as they drew nine walks and struck out seven times.

March 20, 2024

All You Need is Glove

The Dodgers load the bases in the top of the eighth inning, and tie the game on an Enrique Hernandez sacrifice fly. Gavin Lux then hits a ball to the right of first baseman Jake Cronenworth of the Padres. Cronenworth appears to snag the ball, but his webbing breaks and the ball goes through to the outfield to give Los Angeles a 3-2 lead. Two more singles, and suddenly the Dodgers are up 5-2 when the Padres could have been out of the inning with a tie.

March 20, 2024

March 20, 2024

March 20, 2024