February 7, 2026

Gore Gone

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Pinch runner extraordinaire Terrance Gore died at too young age of 34 from complications after surgery:

Gore had 85 plate appearances during his big-league career and batted .216. But in some Septembers and October, he led the majors in fear induced because of his speed. He was often added to rosters late in the regular season — first by the Royals and subsequently by the Chicago Cubs, Dodgers and New York Mets — to serve as a pinch runner, usually in the late innings of close games. He played in the big leagues in parts of eight seasons and in just 112 regular-season games and 11 more in the postseason, he stole 48 bases in 58 attempts.

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Gore played in eight MLB seasons but only broke 10 PA in one season, 2019, when he posted a .275/.362/.353 slash line in 58 PA for the Royals, easily his finest year. He was 13 for 18 in steals that year. He only came to the plate twice in eleven post-season games, but stole five bases in six attempts and scored three runs. He was an extreme specialist, but he used his skill well.

February 7, 2026

Expanding the Clase Case

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It would appear Emmanuel Clase threw more suspicious pitches than was originally thought:

Indicted Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase is accused of throwing suspicious pitches to benefit bettors in at least 48 games over two years, significantly more than was initially revealed by federal prosecutors, according to a court document filed Thursday.

ESPN.com

Along with Luis Ortiz:

According to prosecutors, the two accepted thousands of dollars in bribes to help two unnamed gamblers in the players’ native Dominican Republic win at least $460,000 on bets placed on the speed and outcome of their pitches.

Given the money they make, they could have given the gamblers $460,000 and still have their careers. I’m very interested in why they thought this was a good idea.

February 7, 2026

Gold Swing

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There is a report that Paul Goldschmidt will return to the Yankees on a one-year deal. As part of the analysis of his 2025 season, the article notes:

Goldschmidt also seemed to trade off some power for contact at the plate. He hit the ball with much less authority than at any point in the Statcast Era (since 2015), but also slashed his whiff and strikeout rates compared to where they had been over the previous few seasons. It all led to a drop from 173 to 100 strikeouts, but also a drop from 22 home runs to 10, including just two after June 19. Now, further adjustments could be ahead for Goldschmidt in 2026.

MLB.com

His K rate (K/PA) dropped to 18.7% in 2025, below his career average of 22.4%. In 2024 he set a career single season high of 26.5%. Recently, this post talked about the aging curve for bat speed and how older hitters might adjust:

It’s important to note that batters find success at both high and low swing speeds. The difference between the peaks in speed and production could very well be experience; batters trade a bit of speed to square up the ball better.

The problems come later. A hard swinger, I suspect, tends to remain a hard swinger. As bat speed falls, pitches get blown by batters. This data suggests that as swing speed slows, batters might want to become more Luis Arraez and less Giancarlo Stanton.

BaseballMusings.com

Goldschmidt appears to be trying this. One might also think of it as going from Babe Ruth to Ty Cobb. Ruth struck out a lot in his era, although today his totals would seem low. Cobb, with his split-hand grip, was not only about making contract, but also directing the ball. He looked for holes in the defense, and shot for those areas. We’ll see if a winter of working on further adjustments pays off for Goldschmidt.

February 5, 2026

The Skubal Win

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Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case, according to reports from ESPN. He won by using a little invoked rule:

Leaning on a seldom-used provision in arbitration that allows players with five-plus years of service and so-called “special accomplishment” — back-to-back Cy Youngs qualify — to compare their salaries not just to those in the arbitration system but all major league players, Skubal built his case around starting-pitching salaries that have exceeded $40 million.

Both parties recognized the potential implications of the case, with Skubal enlisting MLBPA deputy executive director Bruce Meyer to provide the rebuttal. The panel found the argument compelling enough to shake up the typically stable and linear arbitration system, even if few players can come close to matching Skubal’s excellence.

ESPN.com

Good for Skubal to get that kind of money. He’s a five to six WAR player in his prime, and might be worth $40 million on the open market.

I personally think the Tigers should spend the money and go for a World Championship. It’s been a very long time since they hoisted the trophy. If the team is not in contention in July, then by all means trade Skubal before he becomes a free agent. But now is the time to go for it, not stop and restock.

February 4, 2026

Frambest

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MLB reports that pitcher Framber Valdez agreed to a three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers:

At $38.3 million per year, it’s the highest AAV ever for a left-handed pitcher — surpassing Blake Snell‘s $36.4 million AAV — as well as the highest for a Latin American pitcher.

MLB.com

The contract reportedly has an opt out after the second season.

So rather than trade Tarik Skubal for prospects, the Tigers made their rotation even more ferocious. Valdez should be worth about eleven WAR if he stays with Detroit for three seasons, so the Tigers valued him at about $10.5 million per WAR, a reasonable price.

Detroit is not resting on their laurels. Tigers fans should be very excited about the 2026 season this evening.

February 4, 2026

Lolich Passes

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Former pitcher and World Series MVP Mickey Lolich died Wednesday:

The Tigers said Lolich’s wife told them he died after a brief stay in hospice care, though his cause of death wasn’t disclosed.

Lolich’s finest hour in baseball came during the 1968 World Series, when he tossed three complete-game victories, including a one-run gem in Game 7 against the Cardinals on just two days’ rest.

NYPost.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

The 1968 season was not his best however, as he posted a 25-14 record in 1971 with a 2.92 ERA in 376 innings. Baseball Reference valued that season at 8.5 WAR. Lolich followed it up with a 22-14 record and a 2.50 ERA in 1972 in just 327 1/3 innings, good for a 7.4 rWAR. He only came in second in innings over those two seasons as Wilbur Wood combined for 710 2/3 innings.

Lolich posted a good K rate for his era, 7.0 per nine IP, and did a great job controlling walks and home runs. He peaked late, but his career ended early after a disagreement with the Met caused him to retire after the 1975 season. He came back with the Padres, but was not the same.

February 3, 2026

The Service Time Magic Number

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In this article on the low percentage rise in MLB salaries in 2025, there is a paragraph indicates salary by service time:

Players with less than one year of major league service averaged $822,589, according to the union, and those with one to two years averaged $1,179,192.

Among players with two to three years who were eligible for salary arbitration, the average was $1,833,386 while those in that service class not eligible averaged $1,374,760. The top 22% of the class by service time is arbitration eligible.

Averages among others in the arbitration-eligible years were $3,273,039 for the three-years-plus group, $3,932,847 in the four-plus group and $8,019,748 in the five-plus group, a year of service time shy of free-agent eligibility.

The average rose to $9,649,380 for six-to-seven-year players and peaked at $22,034,231 for 11-to-12-year players before declining to $13,703,052 for the six players with 15 or more years of major league service.

ESPN.com

There is a huge jump between the penultimate and final year of arbitration. I suspect this is the make or break season for marginal talent. Rather than give these players a big raise, MLB teams will let them go to free agency and replace them with younger talent or a better free agents. In other words, players who get the sixth year contract are the ones who spent their first few years proving their value.

February 3, 2026

Toward a National MLB TV Package

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Six of the nine teams that used RSN Main Street Sports moved to MLB broadcasts. This may be the be move that brings all local broadcasts under the MLB umbrella:

MLB — which hopes to possess the local rights for all 30 of its teams by the end of 2028 and sell them as a national package, a process that would help to eliminate blackouts — also holds the rights to the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals.

Two years ago, MLB installed a local-media department to handle RSN turmoil in the wake of massive cord-cutting rates throughout the country. Under that scenario, MLB broadcasts games, negotiates cable and satellite distribution agreements, generates advertising revenue, and makes local streaming available through MLB.tv — owned by ESPN under a new media rights agreement — for teams that fall off their local media contracts.

ESPN.com

Instead of leveling the money spent by teams through taxes, MLB could split the local TV revenue move evenly by controlling these broadcasts, much like the NFL. I have long favored a split for visiting teams based on the ratings they generate which would encourage teams to put a better product on the field, rather than tanking.

The 2028 season seems optimistic to me. There will be plenty of pushback from the teams that benefit greatly from owning their RSN. I hope this works, it would be a major improvement for the game.

February 2, 2026

Donovan and Prospects

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The Mariners are on the cusp of acquiring Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals in a prospect rich swap that also includes the Rays:

Katie Woo and Chad Jennings of The Athletic reported that the Mariners are close to acquiring utility man Brendan Donovan as part of a three-team deal with the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported that switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfield prospect Tai Peete are heading to St. Louis. Infielder Ben Williamson is heading to the Rays, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that the Rays have traded a competitive balance B draft pick and outfield prospect Colton Ledbetter to the Cardinals.

Yardbarker.com

Cijntje may be the most interesting of the prospects. Born in the Netherlands, Jurrangelo appears to be a variant on his full name, listed in Baseball Reference as Jean Michael. In his one season in professional ball, he struck out 120 batters in 108 1/3 innings, but allowed 51 walks and 15 home runs. I wonder how much the switch pitching has to do with the wildness. His control in college ball was about the same.

Donovan got off to a hot start in 2025, hitting .323/.388/.451 through June 17th. On June 10th, however, he was removed from the game with a toe injury, and eventually this sapped his offense as he hit .241/.308/.384 from June 18th on. He underwent off season surgery as well. This trade is not official, and if it falls through, Donovan’s health might be the issue.

February 2, 2026

I Dream of Eugenio

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The Reds reportedly are ready to sign Eugenio Suarez to a one-year, $15 million contract:

Coming off a season in which he blasted 49 home runs, the 34-year-old Suárez lingered for months in free agency, with teams spooked by his subpar second half. Cincinnati pounced anyway, with limited downside on a one-year pact that includes a $16 million option with no buyout, which is highly unlikely to be picked up by both parties.

ESPN.com

Spooked is an understatement. Suarez posted fWARs of at least 3.5 in each of his last four season. That he would take a contract that pays him as a 1.3 WAR players is amazing.

Home field over the seasons impacted Suarez’s numbers greatly. In his former stint with the Reds he slugged .504 at home, .450 on the road. With the Diamondbacks, who played in another good park for hitters, he slugged .582 at home and .448 on the road. With the sea level Mariners, however, he slugged .406 at home, .442 on the road.

WAR does park adjust, so he did produce value. One thing knocking him down is that the Reds will likely use him as a DH, giving him no defensive value.

This looks like a can’t lose contract for the Reds.

February 1, 2026

All Arraez

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The Giants reportedly worked out a one-year deal with Luis Arraez. The see him as their second baseman:

The Giants have agreed to a one-year deal worth $12 million with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team has not confirmed the agreement, which is pending a physical.

…

Giants second basemen tied for 26th in the Majors with a .617 OPS in 2025, so Arraez should help deepen a lineup that is projected to include three other talented infielders in third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Willy Adames and first baseman Rafael Devers.

MLB.com

The amount of the contract indicates that San Francisco sees Arraez as a one-WAR player, and indeed he averaged one fWAR over the last two seasons. His peak appeared to come a bit early after accumulating 6.1 fWAR in is age 25-26 seasons. In 2025, he kept putting the ball in play found few holes, as his BABIP came in at .289 compared to .329 for his career. Arraez owns a slow swing, but his average exit velocity is down two miles per hour in the last two seasons.

Arraez posts negative defensive numbers every year, so putting him at second base is purely an offensive move.

There is upside. Maybe there is a long-term minor injury that finally healed. The 2025 season came in below his standards, so regression to the mean might make 2026 better. The main problem with Arraez is that he defends like a designated hitter but hits like a middle infielder of the 1970s. I like Arraez as someone who puts the ball in play, usually to great success. I’m not sure he makes the Giants all that much better.

January 31, 2026

Falvey Falls

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The Twins and Derek Falvey, president of baseball and business operations parted ways. It comes at an odd time in the build up to the new season:

Executive vice president and general manager Jeremy Zoll will remain in his role in oversight of the baseball department and report to executive chair Tom Pohlad, who will assume interim oversight of the business operations and immediately direct the search for a replacement.

“There is going to be a desire to find the story behind this story and I’ll say this: Sometimes things just run its course,” Pohlad said. “There doesn’t have to be anything wrong with that or salacious behind that…Its just time for both of us, both professionally and personally, and this organization, to move forward.”

ESPN.com

I suspect the Twins wanted Falvey out of the baseball operation side, but given his history, he likely wanted to stay with involved. Neither side burned any bridges.

January 30, 2026

Wilson for the Long Haul

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The Athletics continued to lock up their young talent by signing shortstop Jacob Wilson to a seven year, $70 million deal. He finished second to teammate Nick Kurtz in the Rookie of the Year voting:

In addition to Wilson and Kurtz, All-Star designated hitter Brent Rooker and outfielders Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler are under contract until at least 2030. Though Kurtz has not signed a contract extension, Wilson and Soderstrom are under team control through 2033, Butler through 2032 and Rooker through 2030.

ESPN.com

This reminds me of the early 1990s when the Indians signed most of their young players to long term contracts, and that core won two AL Pennants later in the decade. The have the chance to move into Las Vegas as a legitimate contender.

Wilson posted a 3.5 fWAR in 2025, and the projects at FanGraphs tend to be a little below that for 2026. If Wilson manages 25 WAR over this contract, it’s a great deal. Even at 15 WAR, the Athletics would get at about half the price of a free agent.

January 28, 2026

Swingers

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Tom Tango presents an aging curve for swing speed.

Swing speed peaks earlier than overall production. Ability peaks at age 27,when swing speed is already showing a decline. Swing speed also decline rapidly after age 28, which may be why teams became hesitant to offer long-term contracts to older free agents.

It’s important to note that batters find success at both high and low swing speeds. The difference between the peaks in speed and production could very well be experience; batters trade a bit of speed to square up the ball better.

The problems come later. A hard swinger, I suspect, tends to remain a hard swinger. As bat speed falls, pitches get blown by batters. This data suggests that as swing speed slows, batters might want to become more Luis Arraez and less Giancarlo Stanton.

That may be difficult. Many batters stymied by shifts could not adjust to a slower swing to meet the ball and drive it the other way. Data like this might help push them in that direction.

January 27, 2026

Decade of Starters

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Every so often Baseball Musings publishes a ten-year comparison of pitcher ranks for anyone who spent at least a day at the top of the list. Here is the 2016-2025 comparison. Nine pitchers made the list in the decade, from Clayton Kershaw at the beginning to Tarik Skubal at the end.

The chart shows a very stark paradigm shift in the use of starting pitchers before and after the pandemic of 2020. Up until 2019, the leader score was usually above 600 at some point in the season. Since then, only Zack Wheeler on in mid July of 2025 topped 600. Starters pitch less, making it tough to post high game scores. Leaders like Gerrit Cole, Wheeler, and now Tarik Skukbal do go deep in games, which allow them to reach the top. Even these excellent starters, however, are unlikely to pitch complete game often.

Paul Skenes, while not on the list, is moving up, and may be on the graph next season. While he is still limited in his innings, his game is so good that he still manages high game scores in his limited innings. The race between Skenes and Skubal should be fun to watch this season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto also deserves a mention. His deep starts in the playoff pushed him to third place. If the Dodgers decide he is a 7-8 inning pitcher, he could make a move on first place as well. Maybe the paradigm is shifting back a bit.

January 26, 2026

The Ramirez Deal

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I was waiting for the Guardians deal with Jose Ramirez to be finalized. It happened over the weekend but just showed up on my feed.

It’s a terrific deal for Cleveland. I estimate Ramirez will post about 30 WAR over the next seven years, so it looks like the Guardians will pay a little under $6 million per WAR. That’s about half price for what Ramirez might get on the free agent market.

So now it’s time to win a championship. There are no excuses. Cleveland employees a great player at a low cost, and they need to use the money saved to surround him with talent to bring a championship to town after waiting nearly 80 years. Let’s see what they do.

January 25, 2026

No Post Sports

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The Washington Post cancelled their Olympic coverage, and may close the sports department completely:

In the mid-1980s, you could walk through the sports department and find Shirley Povich still filing columns at 80 years old, Thomas Boswell writing baseball pieces that felt closer to literature than game recaps, and Tony Kornheiser turning the Redskins’ Super Bowl run into the Bandwagon phenomenon. A young Michael Wilbon was learning the trade. Christine Brennan became the first woman to cover the Redskins beat. John Feinstein was simultaneously filing for the paper and writing “A Season on the Brink.” Sally Jenkins arrived from the San Francisco Chronicle and would go on to become one of the most respected columnists in the country.

The Post‘s sports section once represented the standard for American sports journalism. That’s not where things are now.

AwfulAnnouncing.com

It keeps becoming tougher and tougher to follow local team coverage. Newspapers moved behind paywalls, or went under entirely. While there used to be daily baseball coverage over the off-season, it now appears that most baseball writers take the weekend offs. There just are not as many voices as their used to be.

January 23, 2026

Frog Blog

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Joe Posnanski introduces the FROG concept:

FROG stands for “Flagship Representative of Greatness.”

The idea is that FROGs are kind of like the Knights of the Round Table — they might not be King Arthur, but they are awesome in their own right. They expand the idea of what sports greatness is. Lawrence Taylor and Tom Brady were great in entirely different ways. Randy Johnson and Willie Mays were great in entirely different ways. Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky were great in entirely different ways.

They’re all FROGs.

How many FROGs are there in each sport? Great question, thank you for asking, imaginary reader. That’s what the poll really is all about. I want to see not only who received the most votes, but who else is in the conversation for greatest ever, who else captures the mind. There are a bunch of delightful surprises in here.

www.joeposnanski.com

Tom Tango hops in, starting to look at the round table of greatest living ballplayers over time.

The nice thing is you can do this for anything. All-time shortstop FROGS. FROGS of the PED era. Closer FROGS. The Johnson FROGS! Posnanski used polls and we’ll see the results, while Tango I suspect is using WAR. You can go wild. For example, here are my triples FROGS of the division era:

Jeremiah Estrada may be the bullfrog FROG.

Although some of you might think this is a silly concept.

January 22, 2026

Gore Changes Climates

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The Nationals land a number of Rangers prospects in exchange for pitcher MacKenzie Gore:

In exchange for Gore, who turns 27 in February, the Nationals received a handful of prospects from the Rangers, including 18-year-old third baseman Gavin Fien, who was the 12th overall pick in last year’s amateur draft.

ESPN.com

I Just want to say the Nationals win this trade by picking up some great names:

In addition to Fien, the Nationals will receive right-hander Alejandro Rosario, first baseman Abimelec Ortiz, shortstop Devin Fitz-Gerald and outfielder Yeremy Cabrera in the deal.

You have to love the hyphenated Fitz-Gerald and the sleeping pill for people with stomach discomfort, Abimelec.

It looks to me that Washington’s defense hurt Gore a bit. His career FIPs are lower than his ERA, and he owns a rather high .324 BABP. Maybe Texas can support his high K, low HR strengths better.

Fien currently holds 45 PA as a professional player, so the sky is the limit at this point.

As for the other prospects, Rosario owns a 2.24 minor league ERA in 88 1/3 innings, but missed all of the 2025 season due to an elbow injury, and according to this article, will miss 2026 as well. Ortiz showed decent power in his minor league career, especially in his short stint at AAA. Fitz-Gerald did a great job of getting on base in his seasonal age 19 season, and if he keeps that up may move up to the majors quickly. Cabrera is another very young player who gets on base. If Fien, Cabrera, and Fitz-Gerald can form a high OBP 2B-SS-CF in a couple of years, the Nationals might be strong up the middle for a long time.

January 22, 2026

Short Term Mets

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The Mets strategy for 2026 is now in clear focus as they trade for one year of Freddy Peralta:

The New York Mets’ winterlong pursuit of a front-line starting pitcher ended late Wednesday when they acquired All-Star Freddy Peralta, as well as fellow right-hander Tobias Myers, from the Milwaukee Brewers for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, two of their top prospects.

…

Adding to his value is his $8 million salary for the 2026 season — a bargain for a pitcher of his caliber — before he’s slated to reach free agency. The small-market Brewers, after determining they did not have a realistic shot at re-signing Peralta, found that trading him for the right package was preferable to letting him walk for just a compensatory draft pick.

ESPN.com

The Mets appear to be trying to thread the needle, rebuilding while still remaining playoff material. Most teams going through a rebuild would bring in less talented, less costly players to fill the gap until the next generation of talent comes along. New York is bring in top talent short term to see if they can get lucky with a playoff run.

The other thing rebuilding teams don’t do is trade prospects. I am less impressed with Sproat. He plays 2026 at seasonal age 25, the first of his prime years. He did not blow away AAA batters after an easy time in A and AA ball. He should be major league ready, but we’ll see. Williams is a much better prospect, young and already with high minors experience. He looks like a good top of the order hitters, as he owns a low K rate and a high walk rate. Williams may turn out to be the star of the trade for Milwaukee.

This strategy could easily work for New York. Teams need wins in the high 80s to make the playoffs, and once in, some good, late-season play can take any of the participants to the top. The Mets also have the resources to improve in July if they find themselves looking like a possible champion. They do run the risk, however, of getting on a treadmill of constant short term deals rather than solid talent development.

As for the Brewers, they keep trading away top talent and keep on winning. It’s better to trade too early than too late, and so far that strategy worked great for Milwaukee.

January 21, 2026

Bellinger Bargain

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The Yankees reportedly bring back Cody Bellinger on a five-year, $162.5 million contract:

The deal includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons, a $20 million signing bonus and a full no-trade clause, sources said.

Bellinger figures to slot back in as the Yankees’ primary left fielder — he started more games there (59) than anywhere else last season — and dislodge Jasson Dominguez from an every-day role.

ESPN.com

It’s a good contract for the Yankees. I estimate Bellinger to be worth about 15 1/2 WAR over the next five years, so this contract pays him about $10.4 million per WAR. The Yankees have the chance to get two 4+ WAR seasons out of Bellinger, then have him opt out and let some other team pay for his decline year.

January 21, 2026

Robert to the Mets

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The Mets completed a deal with the White Sox in which New York received outfielder Luis Robert for infielder Luisangel Acuna and pitcher Truman Pauley. Robert will earn $20 million this season that the Mets will pay:

Robert has shown flashes of playing at a level commensurate with that salary. In 2023, he was among the most dynamic players in baseball, hitting 38 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He struggled to hit the past two seasons, though, batting a combined .223/.288/.372 with 28 home runs, 88 RBIs and 56 stolen bases in 856 plate appearances.

Given his age, talent and position, Robert lined up as a strong fit for a Mets team starting to take shape.

ESPN.com

Robert peaked at seasonal age 23 in terms of averages with a .338/.378/.567 slash line in 296 PA. His OBP dropped to .319 the next season and came in below .300 the last two years. He did hit for power in 2023 at seasonal age 25, but that disappeared the last two seasons as well.

Thirty years ago I would have thought Roberts lied about his age. Since 9/11, that has become much more difficult. His career makes more sense if he’s three or four years older than his stated age. The more likely reason is that pitchers adjusted to Robert’s strengths, and then injuries sapped his power. Maybe the Mets can rebuild him.

The Mets give up Acuna, who at this point does not appear to be the second coming of his brother. He struggled getting on base above AA, but he is someone the White Sox can control for a long time and his defense is a positive. Pauley is a Harvard guy, so he must be good! In fact, he walks a ton of batters to go with a ton of strikeouts. In 4 1/3 innings of professional ball, he walked four and struck out three, but has yet to allow a hit.

January 21, 2026

Tampa Bound

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The Rays are looking at a site in Tampa for a new ballpark:

The Tampa Bay Rays’ quest for a new ballpark took a step forward when the Hillsborough College board of trustees voted Tuesday to unanimously approve a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the team for a redevelopment of the school’s Dale Mabry campus that would include a baseball stadium.

“We are encouraged to take this early but very important step forward,” Rays CEO Ken Babby said in a statement.

The proposed project would create a mixed-use district in an area of Tampa near Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training home that the Rays used last season, and Raymond James Stadium, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play.

ESPN.com

Stay tuned. This is a tiny first step

January 20, 2026

Island Hall

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Two Caribbean islanders reach the Hall of Fame:

Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones, who were born within one day of each other in 1977, moved even closer together Tuesday as the two center fielders were elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and tabulated by Ernst & Young.

Players are elected to the Hall provided they are named on at least 75 percent of ballots cast by eligible voting members of the BBWAA. With 425 ballots, including 11 blanks, cast in the 2026 election, candidates needed to receive 319 votes to be elected.

Beltrán, who was in his fourth year on the ballot, topped the lists of 27 candidates with 358 votes, which accounted for 84.2 percent of the electorate. Jones made the grade in his ninth year on the ballot with 333 votes (78.4). Jones was born April 23, 1977 in Willemstad, Curaçao, the day before Beltrán’s arrival in Manati, Puerto Rico.

BBWAA.com

Congratulations to two great centerfielders. The voters did not hold the Astros cheating scandal against Beltran, despite it costing him a job managing the Mets. Both produced about 67 fWAR. While a good hitter, Jones’ defense contributed a lot more to that total, while Beltran’s came mostly from his bat. (Beltran fielded well in his youth, but his defense did not carry into his later career.)

The overall ballot was a bit of a blood bath, as eleven of the twenty seven candidates fell off. Cole Hamels is the only first timer to survive, and three players, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, and Howie Kendrick received no votes. Maybe it’s bad luck to have played for the Nationals!

January 20, 2026

Hall of Fame Day

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Tonight we lean the results of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame balloting. From the public ballots, it looks like Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones stand the best chance of gaining 75% of the vote. It looks to me like both benefitted from this being a weak ballot. The 211 public voters averaged 6.4 players per ballot, so no one was crowding out these greats. I’m surprised that five players received no votes so far. Usually, a some writer will vote for some player because they had a good relationship. It seems that is disappearing.

January 19, 2026

Wood Passes

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Former pitcher Wilbur Wood died Saturday at age 84. He used a knuckle ball to amass a prodigious number of innings:

Wood, a knuckleballer who developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball with the White Sox in the 1970s, truly embodied the meaning of chewing up innings. At his peak from 1971-75 with Chicago, Wood threw a whopping 1,681 2/3 innings, nearly 100 more than any other pitcher during that time and an average of 336 2/3 per season.

Wood combined incredible durability with run prevention at the height of his career. In 1971, Wood broke out in a career-best season, posting a 1.91 ERA and 11.7 WAR (per Baseball Reference) in 334 innings. The left-hander finished third in American League Cy Young Award voting and ninth in MVP voting, and was selected to his first All-Star Game.

MLB.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Wood today would likely have won the 1971 Cy Young Award, but Vida Blue did win, with all the voting indicators favoring Blue.

Here is the list of innings leaders from 1971 to 1975, chock full of Hall of Famers. It was the last gasp of starting pitchers starting frequently and going deep in games. Pitchers were making starts in the high 30s, and a number of them came close to completing half those games.

Wood did not start off as knuckleball pitcher, although he did use the pitch occasionally. Hoyt Wilhelm mentored Wood and told he if he was going to use the pitch, he needed to throw it all the time. The along came Johnny Sain, who thought pitchers should throw all the time, and in 1971 got Wood to start a number of games on two days rest. The rest is history.

Control was Wood’s great strength as a knuckleball pitcher. He averaged just 2.4 walks per nine innings in his career, 2.14 per 9 IP during his five years of dominance. He did not strike out many batters, less than five per nine innings, but opponents could not put good wood on the ball.

My favorite Wood day came in a doubleheader against the Yankees. He started game one and faced six batters without recording an out, getting charged with six runs, five earned. He then started the night-cap, going 4 1/3 innings, allowing seven more runs, five earned, and taking the loss in both games. He is one of four pitchers to lose two starts on the same day since 1920, and the only one since 1930.

January 18, 2026

Deep Starters

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The USPBL, an independent league, plans to train starters to go deep in games:

Every general manager says he would love a rotation of five 200-inning starters, if only he could find them. They cannot offer on-the-job training in the majors, lest their team find itself at a competitive disadvantage.

In an independent league, Orenduff need not worry about that. Tough matchup with the bases loaded in the fourth inning? Third time through the order in the sixth inning? Pitch through it.

“It’s not going to be that quick pull,” he said.

LATimes.com

This is a good idea. If it works, the USPBL should be able to sell contracts to major league teams and make some money.

I also doubt it will work. The problem comes from the incentives being all wrong:

  • The third time through the order fall off is not new, and the fall off is not just the stamina of the pitchers. Batters function as pattern recognizers. The more they see a pitcher, the more they are able to recognize patterns on multiple levels. They combine release points, spin direction, velocity, and even pitch sequencing to get a split second idea of what is coming. Today’s technology makes that even easier, as machines can simulate facing a pitcher.
  • Stamina isn’t just about throwing a fastball, but being able to control off-speed pitches. I heard Joe Morgan (the manager) talk about Pedro Martinez facing Hideki Matsui in the eighth inning of game seven of the 2003 ALCS. Morgan noticed that Martinez lost command of his change up, which really was his out pitch. He was just throwing fastballs at that point, and gave up back-to-back doubles to Matsui and Jorge Posada which allowed the Yankees to tie the game. Off speed pitches require more finesse, and that can decay before velocity does. One of the strengths of Justin Verlander came from pitching “game backwards”, saving his velocity until the end of the game to blow away batters after maybe losing some finesse.
  • Batters and pitchers are in a constant cycle of adjustments. Batters get bigger and stronger. Pitchers throw harder, and develop more pitches, leading to higher strikeout rates. Batters respond by hitting for more power, as the hits they get need to do more damage. Rinse and repeat. The incentives of the game lead to more strikeouts and more home runs.

The real trick is to change the incentives to stop this before we’re averaging 50 K and seven HR per game. (Move the mound back to limit velocity and require heavier bats?)

On the other hand, MLB seems to have found the sweet spot of nine runs per game, with scoring being very consistent over the last two seasons. A limit beyond the three-batters in relief rule may lead to an explosion in scoring that isn’t good for the game either.

January 18, 2026

January 16, 2026

Short and Stacked

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The trend of large, short-term contracts continue as Bo Bichette signs with the Mets for three years, $126 million.

The deal, which is pending a physical, includes player opt-out clauses after the first and second seasons. It does not include any deferred money, giving the contract a straight average annual value of $42 million. With the expenditure, the Mets have surpassed the top competitive balance tax threshold of $304 million with a projected payroll of $345.7 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

ESPN.com

The Mets seem to be valuing him as a four WAR player, and most of the projections put him at the level. On the other hand, 2024 was a poor year, and Bichette really appears to have peaked early, posting his best seasons in his age 23 and 24 seasons. This season with give Bichette a chance to show that he can consistently put up four to five WAR again, and maybe getter a longer term deal while he is still in his prime next season

From the Mets side of things, I find it a bit odd. In some ways they appear to be rebuilding, but this signing might indicate that a trio of Bichette, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto might provide enough offense to carry New York to the playoffs. If they are in the race in July, they could acquire short term talent to take them over the top.

January 16, 2026

Tucked In

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The Dodgers reportedly land Kyle Tucker with a four-year, $240 million deal, although that number doesn’t tell the whole story:

The Dodgers and outfielder Kyle Tucker are in agreement on a four-year, $240 million contract, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Thursday night. The club has not confirmed the deal, which includes an opt-out after the second and third years, a $64 million signing bonus and $30 million deferred, according to multiple reports.

MLB.com

The deferred money brings down the value of the contract a bit, and I suspect it also lowers the actual money going toward the luxury tax. I estimate Tucker to be worth about 16.8 WAR over the four seasons, so given the top line number, the Dodgers are paying about $14.8 million per WAR, which is at the high end of the WAR value.

I suspect it has more to do with the approaching Collective Bargaining Agreement than an actual shift in negotiations, but players are doing well with short-term contracts. Teams are willing to pay more per year, because they are more likely to reap the expected output from players. Tucker, if he opts out after two seasons, probably has $120 million in the bank, and would still be young enough to get another good contract. If players really want to get more money out of the owners, this is the way to go.

The Dodgers are now the Yankees of the 1990-2000s, willing to spend whatever it takes to keep winning. That’s a good thing. Plenty of unneeded restrictions on signing amateurs were put in place over the years so teams could spend more money on MLB players, and it hasn’t worked out. Like the Yankees of that era, the Dodgers follow the rules and take advantage of their opportunities. It’s time other teams start trying to match them.