The Yankees must have set a record for allowing batters to reach on strikeouts.
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Eventful First Inning
In the first inning the Reds turned a 5-6 fielders choice double play, them hit a homer and a triple. The Reds lead the Cardinals 1-0.
Carving the Bird
Greg Bird will likely miss the rest of the 2017 season as he opted for ankle surgery to fix his injury.
Bird opted for surgery after several other rehabilitation efforts — a cortisone shot on June 20 and a Novocaine injection last Thursday, among others — didn’t relieve the pain nor help solve the lingering issue.
It’s not clear from the article what the surgeon will do. I would say, at this point, that Bird did not deserve the criticism he received.
Both Sides
ESPN looks at both sides of the rift between the Mets and Asdrubal Cabrera and finds both parties share some blame. The Mets greeted Cabrera on his return from the disabled list with a position shift, and Cabrera demanded to be traded.
Gone in a Plouffe
Oakland designated Trevor Plouffe for assignment Thursday, and the Rays took the third baseman in a yet to be determined trade:
Oakland will receive either a player to be named later or cash.
Plouffe batted just .214 with seven home runs in 58 games with the A’s. The eight-year veteran became expendable in Oakland once the Athletics recalled top third base prospect Matt Chapman from the minors Thursday.
Although third base has been his primary position, Plouffe also can play first base and figures to provide depth at the position for Tampa Bay.
I don’t really see Plouffe helping the Rays much. He’s always been a lackluster hitter, with a low BA and OBP. At the peak of his career he did hit for some power, mostly doubles, but that peak was short lived. He’s playing as a 31-year-old now, so I don’t expect his power to return. He has no history of success playing in Tampa Bay. The Rays got a warm body.
Night Out
At the Celtics game. Blogging will be light.?
Game 7 Wizards at Celtics
Tie Breaker
Miguel Cabrera hit the 450th home run of his career in his first game back from the disabled list. He broke a tie with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero. Those two alone were good company, and now Cabrera sets his sights on Carl Yastrzemski at 452.
I don’t think Cabrera will last long enough to reach 700 home runs, but I would not be surprised if he passed Willie Mays. He’ll need to stay a bit healthier, however, but I can see him matching the great finishes of both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron.
Detroit leads Cleveland 5-1 after five innings.
Thursday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Managers and Agents
I didn’t realize that player agents communicate with field managers. Here’s Jeff Banister on that relationship:
One thing I’ll tell you, being the manager of a team, that relationship with a player needs to stay one direction and that’s about playing the game of baseball. It is a relationship and a growing relationship. It’s not a contract relationship. That’s why you have a front office and a general manager and that’s why agents communicate with them. But there are a number of agents out there that I do talk to and there is an open line of communication with me about their players just because if there’s something going on that a player wants to talk to his agent about and they communicate that to me then I’m okay with that.”
That makes sense. An agent helps smooth out communications. A player might go an agent and rant and rave about a problem. The agent goes to the manager or the GM and explains the problem in a constructive way. Likewise, the manager or GM might rant and rave to the agent about the player, and the agent presents the problems to the player in a more positive light. This is why players and teams avoid arbitration hearings. The team talks the player down in front of the player, which is not pleasant for either side.
Beat the Streak Picks
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova
0.332 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova
0.325 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson
0.324 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson
0.321 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.318 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis
0.313 — Tim Anderson batting against Cody Anderson
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese
0.308 — Justin Morneau batting against Cody Anderson
I’m going to 11 on these lists as Daniel Murphy’s status is in doubt. Also, Ivan Nova pitched much better since joining the Pirates, so be careful picking against him.
The NN produces this list:
0.335, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.320, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.332, 0.750 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.318, 0.743 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.738 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.296, 0.736 — Devon Travis batting against CC Sabathia.
0.321, 0.730 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.325, 0.729 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson.
0.324, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson.
0.300, 0.724 — Starling Marte batting against Joe Ross.
0.300, 0.724 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Andriese.
It’s a very similar list. The NN with park factored in modifies it like this:
0.335, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.320, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.332, 0.756 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.318, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.740 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.296, 0.739 — Devon Travis batting against CC Sabathia.
0.321, 0.738 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.325, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson.
0.324, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson.
0.309, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley.
0.300, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Joe Ross.
Maybe it’s an Altuve and Seager day. As always, you best pick is going to fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!
View of Coors
Baby Bombers
Tyler Austin and Aaron Judge hit back to back home runs in their first at bats for the Yankees. Austin hit his down the line in right, while Judge hit his off the glass in center. Those trades look really good right now.
Beat the Streak Picks
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton
0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman
0.319 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton
0.312 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton
0.308 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton
0.303 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez
0.302 — David Ortiz batting against James Paxton
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley
0.289 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios
0.286 — Jackie Bradley, Jr. batting against James Paxton
It’s not a good day to be James Paxton.
The NN produces this list:
0.329, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.335, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton.
0.294, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton.
0.303, 0.719 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.308, 0.715 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton.
0.281, 0.708 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.260, 0.707 — Martin Prado batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.268, 0.706 — Paulo Orlando batting against Chris Archer.
0.289, 0.703 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios.
0.312, 0.703 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton.
Daniel Murphy moves up, but Altuve and Bogaerts remain at the top. Murphy hasn’t started the last two games due to an injury.
The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:
0.329, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.335, 0.754 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton.
0.294, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.734 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton.
0.303, 0.722 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.308, 0.719 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton.
0.281, 0.712 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.289, 0.710 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios.
0.312, 0.710 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton.
0.260, 0.708 — Martin Prado batting against Kyle Hendricks.
Not much of a difference. It’s an AB day, with Altuve and Bogaerts the top picks. As always, there is about a 25% chance that your best picks won’t get a hit.
Lucroy Says No
Jonathan Lucroy exercised his no-trade clause, killing the trade between the Brewers and the Indians.
Per @bnightengale, #Indians told Lucroy he would be backup C/1B/DH in 17, with Gomes regular C. Team says it simply made Lucroy no promises.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2016
Lucroy gave brief explanation of decision : wants long-term gain not short term gain.
— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 31, 2016
Maybe some other team will be willing to give Lucroy more of a long-term promise. He is seasonal age 30, so he is likely to decline in the next few years, as catchers tend to decline faster than other position players. He may have blown a chance to win a World Series.
Why Altuve?
You’re the manager. You have one of the best hitters in the league on your team. You’re giving him a partial day off by putting him at designated hitter. He comes up twice with a man on first, once with one out. What do you have him do? Sacrifice!
When I looked at the Houston box score recently, I saw Altuve was 0-1 with the team three time through the order. No walks. I looked down to see what he did in the other two PA, and saw the two sacrifice hits. What is going on?
I have batting by fielding position going back to 1974, most of the DH era. In that time, this is only the 11th time that a designated hitter sacrificed twice in the game. The last was by Brayan Pena on 8/22/2009. Amazingly, Don Baylor makes the list 5/30/1983, playing for the Yankees no less. If anyone watched the game, was Altuve bunting for hits and the official scorer decided to be generous? I can’t imagine a manager calling for a one-out sac with Altuve at the plate.
Oakland leads Houston 1-0 in the eighth inning.
Beat the Streak Picks
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.329 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.325 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.306 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.300 — Dae-Ho Lee batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.298 — Ketel Marte batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.295 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke
0.292 — David Ortiz batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.292 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jorge de la Rosa
Log5 doesn’t like Mike Pelfrey today. It may be time to take a good look at the Mariners lineup.
Here is the NN list:
0.296, 0.753 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.329, 0.747 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.325, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.295, 0.735 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke.
0.279, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.306, 0.730 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.728 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.253, 0.724 — Josh Harrison batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.304, 0.721 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.287, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
Cano and Cruz remain among the Seattle batters when the NN does its calculation. I’m also impressed that anyone makes the list against Madison Bumgarner. Madison doesn’t issue many walks, so batters do have a chance to get a hit against him. Mostly, however, Josh Harrison is really good at collecting hits.
Here is the NN taking parks into account:
0.296, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.325, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.329, 0.710 — Robinson Cano batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.295, 0.698 — Buster Posey batting against Jeff Locke.
0.306, 0.694 — Nelson Cruz batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.691 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.279, 0.690 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.253, 0.688 — Josh Harrison batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.287, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.260, 0.684 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Nate Karns.
0.267, 0.684 — Francisco Lindor batting against Drew Smyly.
Bogaerts and Cruz get bumped up a bit due to the park, and Miguel Cabrera and Francisco Lindor make the end of the list. Altuve, Bogaerts, and Cano appear to be the consensus choices. As always, the probabilities indicate that the best player on the list is going to fail to get a hit in 25% of the games.
Beat the Streak Picks
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.374 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan
0.342 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Moore
0.339 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Pat Dean
0.338 — Victor Martinez batting against Michael Pineda
0.334 — Martin Prado batting against Robbie Ray
0.334 — Ian Kinsler batting against Michael Pineda
0.333 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan
0.328 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Robbie Ray
0.320 — Jacob Realmuto batting against Robbie Ray
0.319 — Nick Castellanos batting against Michael Pineda
0.319 — Cameron Maybin batting against Michael Pineda
Choose your opponent pitcher well. Pineda, Ray, and Morgan give up hits, but the latter two have not pitched much in the majors.
Here is the NN list:
0.342, 0.772 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.374, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.339, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Pat Dean.
0.283, 0.743 — Ben Revere batting against Adam Morgan. Parameters:
0.299, 0.742 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Rick Porcello.
0.317, 0.742 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Michael Pineda.
0.310, 0.741 — Josh Harrison batting against Mike Leake.
0.334, 0.739 — Ian Kinsler batting against Michael Pineda.
0.295, 0.738 — Francisco Lindor batting against David Huff.
0.316, 0.736 — Danny Valencia batting against John Lamb.
0.334, 0.736 — Martin Prado batting against Robbie Ray.
The two systems agree on the top three picks, although in a slightly different order.
Ventura Suspended
MLB handed down a suspension to Yordano Ventura:
Kansas City pitcher Yordano Ventura was suspended nine games and Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado was penalized four games Thursday after their brawl earlier this week.
Major League Baseball also fined each player an undisclosed amount. USA Today, which first reported the Machado penalty, said the Orioles star must pay $2,500.
Each player has appealed, the league said. Machado was in the lineup for the Orioles on Thursday night against Toronto, batting third.
“It’s just kind of tough when you have to play short because of something that someone else kind of got going,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said before the game.
Nine games is way too short for Ventura’s attack on Machado. Players can be suspended 80 games for domestic violence, but attempt to injure an opponent with a baseball, and you miss one start.
:
No, no it is not enough. Nine games equals one missed start. That’s nothing. That’s a twinge and a precautionary sit-down. That’s a timeout for somebody whose tantrums are dangerous to the people he plays against. Given Ventura’s past history, MLB needed to make the strongest possible point of saying that it won’t tolerate anybody throwing high-90s heat with intent at people on the field.
I say that while acknowledging that I’ve been one of the more patient people with Ventura’s anger-management issues, writing about it after his run-in with Adam Eaton back in the big Royals-White Sox rumble of April 2015, and now this latest bit of mound mayhem. And I do still hope we get to see a Yordano Ventura who gets his act together, harnesses his league-beating heat, and gives the Royals — or somebody — the quality starting pitcher so many folks think he can be.
But remember, after the Eaton fracas Ventura received a seven-game suspension — and he didn’t even hit Eaton with a pitch. Dialing up the suspension-o-meter to nine isn’t just incremental, it lacks a sense of proportion. If you’re in the business of meting out punishments and you’re going to prosecute players for on-field violence, you dial it up way past nine games, because you’re operating from the belief that what Ventura did put another player’s health and career at risk.
It’s time to put an end to retaliation with pitches.
She BABIP
The Padres offensive woes continued Wednesday night as they failed once again to score a run. They recorded five hits in the game, all singles, as the Dodgers beat them 7-0. The latest debacle came against a 28-year-old Japanese pitcher, Kenta Maeda, making his major league debut. Maeda, just to rub it in, homered in the game as well.
If a team gets shutout in a Clayton Kershaw start, that’s just part of the risk of facing one of the all-time greats on the mound. If the same team also gets shutout in a Scott Kazmir start, it’s a tough break. Kazmir is good, but a team should be able to score a run or two against him. When that team gets to the third starter in the rotation, one who pitched in a different level of major league, the team should be able to outscore the pitcher!
The Dodgers and the Padres hitters now stand at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of offensive batting average on balls in play (BABIP). I’m using (Hits-HR)/(AB-(HR+k)). The Dodgers are the best in the majors at .400. The Padres batters are lowest in the NL at .172. Couple that with 28 strikeouts (1/3 of their outs), and there just isn’t much chance to generate offense.
Note that the Dodgers batters struck out 29 times already. Los Angeles is pounding the ball, however, with 15 extra base hits to the Padres one. Strikeouts are fine as long as they are coupled to power. Strikeouts without power are a recipe for disaster.
So even in the small sample size of three games, we learned something about the Padres and the Dodgers. The Padres appear to be a weak hitting team. Not only do they swing and miss, but they don’t hit the ball hard when they put it in play. The Dodgers strikeouts come from their power. They swing hard. They do miss balls, but the results when they connect are devastating. We’ll see if their seasons continue to play out this way.
(Note that if you substitute the Angels and Cubs into this analysis, you’ll get a similar result. Even though the Angels own a lower BABIP than the Padres, .146, they only struck out 13 times, so simply by putting the ball in play more, they’ll generate a bit more offense. They have scored one run.)
Hidden Personality
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny responds to critics of his demeanor:
“That’s a trap I could easily fall into, to where I’m trying to please the masses,” the 45-year-old Matheny said. “And then I think I put at risk what I have to do for these guys. And I think they see right through that stuff. Everybody else goes about it the way they want to go about it, and I think I’m the last guy to talk about who’s doing what — I have to figure it out for myself. And what I figured out is — I want these guys, without a doubt, to know what my agenda is, and my agenda is them. And us winning.
“I know you guys (in the media) don’t get to see it … but I spend time around people in the real world, and it’s different because I can be different there. Maybe someday I’ll get better at combining the two, but I feel like I’m always on point when I’m doing this job, which is guarded, which is maybe combative, I don’t know — you guys can throw the adjectives on there. I just feel like that’s what I’m supposed to do.”
The author also quotes Chris Jaffe on managerial talent:
“But I’ve found over the years that managers are more managers of men than managers of the game,” Jaffe said. “So while in-game strategies matters, the stuff behind closed doors is often more important. But the public has a tendency to evaluate them based on the part we see, even if it’s just the tip of the iceberg.”
The best example of that was Joe Torre. Torre lasted in New York while so many others came and went because of his ability to handle people. Most importantly, he served as the fire wall between the players, the media, and ownership, deflecting blows so the players could concentrate on the game.
On the other hand, the Cardinals had winning records in the four years Matheny held the tiller. If the talent has an off-year, we’ll see how Mike responds to that challenge.
Agreeing with Heyward
Mike Matheny disagrees with the reason Jason Heyward left the the Cardinals:
While recently departed Jason Heyward was high in his praise of the Cardinals’ organization as he forsook it to sign with the Chicago Cubs for eight years and $184 million, he made it clear that he was less comfortable with the Cardinals’ core in the long-term than he was with the Cubs. Chicago has a younger brand in position-player stars such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell.
The Cardinals’ well-over-30 core of Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright isn’t going to be around that much longer, Heyward said.
Matheny:
“I see where he’s coming from. I mean, look at what Chicago’s done. It’s very unique in this game — to have that many impact players at that young age. And he’s a young player. But I can’t say I’m in any kind of agreement with that (Chicago) core being better than any kind of core that we have.
“That veteran group (that the Cardinals have) also helps drive what the younger group turns into.”
I agree with Heyward. On the Cubs, Heyward is the veteran presence, and he’s in the middle of his prime years. As he ages, the Cubs are going to get better behind him. On the Cardinals, Heyward would need to depend on the St. Louis front office keeping the pipeline of talent flowing. They are excellent at that, between drafting great pitchers and bringing up position players in their primes to fill holes. Heyward is choosing between a solid young team that should develop into a great one, and the hope that an organization keep drafting well and developing players well. With the Cardinals history of winning, they don’t get high draft picks, so that job gets tougher. The Cubs right now, are the team of the near future.
The Appel of the Trade
It turned out the Phillies trade of Ken Giles to the Astros wasn’t quite what was reported:
A Phillies-Astros trade that sent closer Ken Giles to Houston now includes the top overall selection from the 2013 draft, Mark Appel.
It was initially reported that Giles was traded for Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Derek Fisher and Thomas Eshelman, but the teams announced Saturday that Appel, not Fisher, was dealt along with Harold Arauz.
Appel, of course, was a first pick draft choice. Obviously, the Astros soured on him, but he might still have some potential.
Pay O’Day
Darren O’Day agrees to stay with the Orioles:
A team source confirmed this morning that the Orioles reached agreement with reliever Darren O’Day on a four-year deal “pending a medical review.”
The decision came down to the Orioles and Nationals, who reportedly were hesitant to offer a fourth year.
CBSSports.com is reporting that O’Day will receive $31 million. FOXSports.com first reported the agreement.
Basically, the Orioles see O’Day as a 1.0 WAR pitcher who will continue to be consistent in his setup role. Note that he’s been outstanding in the role for the Orioles, doing a tremendous job of keeping opposing batters off base in the seventh and eighth inning, and even occasionally in the ninth.
Now for the interesting bit. Baseball Reference scores O’Day at 9.6 WAR with the Orioles, FanGraphs at 4.9. That’s a huge difference. As I’ve mentioned before, rWAR tends to be more results oriented, fWAR more ability oriented. In his four seasons for the Orioles, and for his career, O’Day’s FIP is much higher than his ERA. I’m not exactly sure why that is. O’Day strikes out tons of batters, walks very few, and gives up home runs at a reasonable rate. His ground ball rate is low however. The Orioles are paying him for his fWAR, despite his results being better than that. If I were his agent, I might have tried to squeeze out a bit more money.
On the other hand, it’s quite possible O’Day wanted to stay in Baltimore, and gave a discount there. He’s also not young, and will play 2016 as a 33-year-old, and his likely decline figured into the Orioles decision.
Of course, over $7 million a year is a pretty good haul for 68 days of work a season, one inning at a time.
Update: O’Day disputes the reports:
Contrary to the news, I have not reached an agreement with the O's yet. I am flattered by all the attention, but reports are premature.
— Darren O'Day (@DODay56) December 6, 2015
Stay tuned.
Greinke a Diamondback
Zack Greinke was supposed to stay with the Dodgers or sign with the Giants. He did neither:
Greinke reached agreement Friday night on a six-year contract with Arizona, shunning both the three-time defending division champion Dodgers and three-time recent World Series champion San Francisco Giants to sign with a club that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2007.
Wow. Arizona shows it wants to get back to the playoffs in a big way. I have not seen money yet, so we’ll see if he tops David Price. A $190 million contract would beat the yearly value of Price’s contract.
I suspect Greinke’s ERA will go up a bit. He has a career 3.34 ERA in Arizona. That’s mostly due to eight home runs in 62 innings. His record there is 6-2 in ten starts.
He’ll play 2016 as a 32-year-old, so Arizona is paying for the downside of his career. Greinke is a smart pitcher, however. He proved he knows how to adjust to keep himself healthy, and I would not be surprised if he adjusts quickly as his velocity diminishes. Mike Mussina waited until the end of his career to change into a slow-ball pitcher. Greinke is aware enough to make that adjustment while it will still do him some good.
Rizzo and Alonso
David Schoenfield reminds us that the Padres once chose to keep Yonder Alonso over Anthony Rizzo. That’s one reason there is a newer front office in San Diego.
Speaking of San Diego, it appears the Padres are once again trying to distract their fans from a poor season with new uniforms.
Rookie Day
Major League Baseball (MLB) announces the Jackie Robinson Awards for Rookie of the Year tonight, Monday, starting at 6 PM. The three finalists for the National League honor are Kris Bryant, Matt Duffy, and Jung Ho Kang. The American League award comes down to Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Miguel Sano.
Bryant posted an impressive year for any player, rookie or not. His batting line of .275/.369/.488 shows that at age 23 he mastered most of the skills needed to be an outstanding offensive player. He played both third base and the outfield well.
Duffy also plays third base, and came in with a .295/.334/.448 slash line. He garners a higher BA than Bryant, but is more of a singles hitter. He strikes out much less than Bryant, so he is an excellent player to bat when the team really needs a hit. Duffy and Bryant’s defense are on par. Duffy is also a year older than Bryant, so has less upside.
Kang finished the season with a serious injury, finishing with a 267/.355/.461 slash line. He did not play as much as Bryant or Duffy, which lowers his value. On top of that, despite being a middle infielder by trade, his defense was just a bit above average. Couple that with his being in the middle of his prime, I don’t believe his numbers compare that well with Bryant.
I would rank Bryant first, Duffy second, and Kang third. In many years, any one of the them could have won the award, but this was a particularly strong season for young, left-side infielders.
Correa is an extremely young, power-hitting shortstop. That should put him in a very good position in any awards competition. He hit .279/.345/.512 in 432 PA. FanGraphs shows his defense needs some work, but for now his bat more than makes up for a lack of range.
Lindor is nearly identical. One year older, but still quite young, Lindor posted a .313/.353/.482 slash line, slightly less power with fewer outs, also as a shortstop in 438 PA. Becuase FanGraphs rates his defense higher, Lindor turned in a higher WAR.
Sano, the oldest at seasonal age 22 in 2015, played the least of the three but hit the best, .269/.385/.530. He was a designated hitter, however, so there is no available boost for defense.
I would rank them Lindor, Correa, and Sano. Once again, they are three great candidates, and I look forward to many years arguing Correa and Lindor like we argued Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez in the late 1990s.
Pennington Pitches
Position player Cliff Pennington faced three batters as the Blue Jays ran out of relief pitchers they wanted to use in this game. Mark Lowe, like Ryan Tepera and LaTroy Hawkins, could not finish the game and save the rest of the bullpen. Just horrible pitching by the Blue Jays in game four. The walked five and struck out just five, giving up 15 hits, 12 of them singles. The Royals also converted four sacrifice flies. The Royals win 14-2.
Update: Pennington was the first position player ever to pitch in the post-season.
First Batter Troubles
Yoenis Cespedes leads off the second inning with a home run off Zack Greinke. Earlier today I noted Greinke’s success against leadoff hitters, but he gave up two leadoff hits in two innings tonight. That was also the first leadoff HR against Greinke this season.
Update: Michael Conforto goes deep in the second inning as well. It was a laser shot down the right field line.
Locking Up Lovullo
The Red Sox decided to keep Torey Lovullo, as their bench coach:
The players know they’ve performed better since interim manager Torey Lovullo took over for their ailing manager John Farrell, who recently completed chemotherapy to treat Stage 1 lymphoma. They enjoy playing for Lovullo, who talks to every player on a daily basis, gives young players freedom and has given roles to relief pitchers. And they didn’t want to see Lovullo go.
Yesterday it became official: Lovullo isn’t going anywhere. Extended to a two-year contract that doesn’t permit him to interview for managerial openings with other clubs, he’ll return next year, as bench coach.
Farrell will be back as well, to manage the team, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced.
And while it might seem counterintuitive on paper to bring back the manager who led the Sox to a losing record in back-to-back seasons, the players felt otherwise.
“I think first we’re worried about his health,” said second baseman Dustin Pedroia. “We’ll worry about that stuff when next year comes. He has to take care of himself and get him healthy. We can’t wait to have him back.”
After doing a great job replacing Farrell, Lovullo would be a prime candidate for one of the open managerial jobs. I suspect he wants to stay with the Red Sox, and was likely promised that he would be the next manager when Farrell was done.
Astros Tie
George Springer doubles in a run, and the Astros tie the Diamondbacks at one.