Category Archives: Uncategorized

October 1, 2015

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Rookie Sean Gilmartin makes his first major league start for the Mets as they face the Phillies and their rookie Jerad Eickhoff. Gilmartin pitching masterfully out of the bullpen, with one home run allowed, 17 walks, and 51 K in 52 1/3 innings. I also wonder how many people in his life thought his name was Gill Martin. Eickhoff owns a 3.07 ERA in seven starts, already averaging better than six innings a start. Don’t be too taken by him, however, as he’s already 24 years old.

Rich Hill tries to extend his amazing short-season performance as the Red Sox once again try to stop the Yankees from clinching a wild card. CC Sabathia takes the mound for New York. Hill walked 2 and struck out 30 in three starts, allowing just three runs. Sabathia owns a 2.25 ERA since employing a new knee brace.

Finally, the Angels send Andrew Heaney against the Rangers and Derek Holland, the Angels needing to sweep the Rangers to have a chance at an AL West championship. Heaney pitched well on the road this year, 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA. He allowed just two of his nine home runs away from Anaheim. Holland pitched well when he first returned from the disabled list, but his last four starts were poor. He walked 11 and struck out 10 in 22 innings, allowing five home runs. That’s about as bad as you can get in terms of three-true outcomes.

Enjoy!

September 11, 2015

Massive Tie Scenario

Leave a reply

Only two games were involved in the massive tie scenario Thursday night. The Rangers lost and the Indians won. That was a good result, as it made the five-way race for the second wild card tighter. It did lower the maximum number of wins for the three-way AL West lead and the five-way wild card to 88:

  • Astros 12-10
  • Rangers 15-8
  • Twins 16-7
  • Angels 18-5
  • Indians 19-4

The Indians and Twins play seven times, and this scenario has Cleveland taking six of seven in that series. The Twins sweep four games from the Angels, and the Angels sweep six from Houston and four from Texas. Then, the Astros take four of seven from the Rangers.

Here is the more likely 87 win scenario. There is still a lot of leeway. If this happens, it may take place closer to 84 wins:

  • Astros 11-11
  • Rangers 14-9
  • Twins 15-8
  • Angels 17-6
  • Indians 18-5

The other five way tie involves just five wild card teams. This works at 89 wins.

  • Rangers 16-7
  • Twins 17-6
  • Angels 19-4
  • Indians 20-3
  • Rays 21-2

This would require the Indians to take five of the seven games against the Twins, the Twins to sweep the four games against the Angels, and the Angels to sweep the four games against Texas. I also suspect that the Astros would get knocked out of the top spot in this scenario. More likely here is the 85 win scenario:

  • Rangers 12-11
  • Twins 13-10
  • Angels 15-8
  • Indians 16-7
  • Rays 19-6

For Friday, the best results would be:

  • The Indians beat Detroit.
  • The Rays defeat the Red Sox.
  • The Rangers fall to the Athletics.
  • The Twins defeat the White Sox.
  • The Angels beat the Astros.

The Astros play seven games in a row against the Angels and Rangers, so this could be a make or break week for the first massive tie scenario.

August 16, 2015

Jungmann Not Too Young

Leave a reply

Taylor Jungmann continues to be one of the bright spots for the Brewers this season. He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday to lower his ERA to 2.23 as the Brewers defeat the Phillies 6-1. Jungmann walked two and struck out nine, and for the season has good strikeout and walk rates and a great home run rate.

Jungmann plays his rookie season as a 25-year-old, as he was born late in 1989. That means he’s already in his prime. There advantages and disadvantages to becoming a rookie that late. For the Brewers, they get to control him for the prime of his career. They get his best season at below the cost of buying a free agent. For Jungmann, since he is a mature player, he can contribute at a high level right away without having inning limitations placed on him. The disadvantage is that Jungmann will be past his prime if and when he becomes a free agent, costing him money. He’s also less likely than someone who comes up young to make the Hall of Fame. He’ll never be able to accumulate the counting stats.

Also in the game, Ryan Braun tied Robin Yount for the Brewers record for home runs. The Brewers didn’t develop power hitters that they kept. Yount hit 250 home runs, but that was in an extremely long career. Braun reached that level in fewer than half the at bats.

August 15, 2015

Duffey No Hitter

1 Reply

I’m here at Target Field watching Tyler Duffey pitch a no-hitter through five innings. He is a bit wild with four walks, but he also struck out six.

Eddie Rosario just gave the Twins a 1-0 lead over the Indians with a solo homer in the fifth.

Update: Chris Herrmann also homers and the Twins lead 2-0 after five.

Update: Lindor breaks it up with a one-out double in the sixty.

August 15, 2015 August 15, 2015 July 11, 2015

Buchholz Disabled

1 Reply

Clay Buchholz goes to the disabled list with a sore elbow, but he doesn’t need surgery:

Clay Buchholz was somber in his tone and frustrated by his sore right elbow, but tried to stay optimistic on Saturday afternoon after learning that his ulnar collateral ligament has no structural damage. At this point, surgery seems unlikely.

Buchholz will go on the 15-day disabled list and rest his arm for at least a week before throwing again. The Red Sox called up left-handed starter Brian Johnson, one of the team’s top prospects who had been lights-out in Triple-A Pawtucket this season.

“The All-Star break coming, it gives us a few days to rest and from all the facts I’ve gathered, that’s what it’s going to be, it’s going to be rest,” Buchholz said. “Had an MRI last night and the UCL, as it was when I was told five years ago when I had an MRI, it looks like my UCL [is one] that’s never thrown a baseball before, so that’s good. What’s going on here is just something that’s going to take a week off of throwing or 10 days off of throwing and then get back into it.

So this injury puts a cramp in the Red Sox attempted comeback, and possibly takes Buchholz off the trade market. It doesn’t look like it will be season ending, however.

June 28, 2015

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Trevor Bauer faces Ubaldo Jimenez as Cleveland plays in Baltimore in game one of their double header.

Felix Hernandez and Hector Santiago square off in Anaheim the Angels veteran owning a better ERA than the Mariners ace.

Finally, the Cardinals go for a sweep of the Cubs as Jason Hammel takes on Carlos Martinez.

Enjoy!

June 26, 2015

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Max Scherzer allowed one hit, one walk, and one hit batter as he goes for his third low-hit, complete game in a row. If he stays with the progression, (one-hit, no-hit), this one should be perfect. 🙂 He faces the Phillies and Aaron Harang. The Phillies own the third worst batting average in the National League at .241. That makes ripe for another low hitter.

The Braves and Pirates are both reeling a bit after sweeps by the Nationals. Undefeated Williams Perez face Francisco Liriano.

The Cardinals are leaving the NL Central in the dust as the Cubs come to town. Jake Arrieta takes on John Lackey. The Cubs really need a sweep of the series to get back in the race for the top spot in the NL Central, although they still hold the second wild card slot.

Enjoy!

June 25, 2015 June 25, 2015 June 5, 2015

Switch-a-Roo

2 Replies

The Oakland Athletics called up switch pitcher Pat Venditte. I don’t know why the Yankees never gave him a shot at the majors, he always had a high K rate in the minors. At seasonal age 30, I don’t expect his career to be very long.

If you are wondering what the rules are for a switch pitcher (and the batter facing him) the Boston Globe gives the rundown. Basically, the pitcher has to indicate what side he will throw from and the batter then makes the decision what side to hit from. Both can changes sides once during the plate appearance after the first pitch.

May 25, 2015

Games of the Day

2 Replies

The improved Royals travel to New York to play the reeling Yankees as Jeremy Guthrie faces Nathan Eovaldi. It’s not the greatest pitching match-up, but keep your eyes on Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Kendrys Morales. All three are off to terrific starts, and the three have combined for 156 hits, 57 for extra bases. This is the kind of production that has been expected of the younger two for years, and Morales finally seems to be back to his pre walk-off injury self.

The Astros tour continues as their ace, Dallas Keuchel tries to remain undefeated against Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. Keuchel is slightly behind Sonny Gray in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points, so a decent game will put the Astros starter back in the lead. Chen stands 1-3 despite a 2.90 ERA, and owns that ERA despite allowing seven home runs in 49 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting just .118 against him with runners in scoring position. The Astros are a power team, however, so they should match up well in the game.

The Nationals travel to Chicago to take on the improved Cubs. Tanner Roark faces Tsuyoshi Wada. Roark makes his first start of the season as Doug Fister lands on the disabled list. He posted one of the best ERAs in the Washington rotation in 2014, but his three-true outcomes were the weakest of the group. He walked five and struck out seven in 20 1/3 bullpen innings this year. Wada struck out nine and walked one in 4 2/3 innings in his first start this year.

Finally, the Mariners take on the Rays as Roenis Elias battles Jake Odorizzi. Elias allowed three of his four home runs on the road, but he’s also struck out 17 in 20 2/3 innings away. Odorizzi allowed just two home runs this season in 59 1/3 innings, and owns a 1.73 ERA at home.

Enjoy!

May 18, 2015

Panning the Manager

2 Replies

The Marlins moving Dan Jennings to the dugout is meeting with univeral derision. Here’s Jerry Crasnick:

In reality, the biggest drawback is that managing is really difficult. And Jennings is about to discover some hard truths on the fly, with only a coaching stint at Davidson High School in Alabama on a résumé that extends back more than 30 years. Maybe a trip to Dairy Queen took the edge off tough losses in the Mobile County Public School system, but that’s not an option now.

Scott Ridge:

Stil, the unorthodox move raised eyebrows around baseball, and even in Jennings’ own family.

“Even my mom, who I love, she asked me, am I crazy? ‘Have you lost your mind?’” Jennings said.

Craig Calcaterra follows up on the mother quote:

And crazy or sane, he’s team superstar Giancarlo Stanton‘s seventh manager in six seasons, which is pretty cool unless you’re invested in Stanton being happy and content and stuff.

It strikes me that there is a conceit here that is likely to come back and bite Jennings. It’s easy to sit at home and watch a game and say, “I could manage better than that.” I used to think I could probably broadcast a game better than some announcers until I was involved in television production and saw that it was in fact a very tough job.

I think the right comparison is Trey Hillman.

And I will never forget coming back to the States and talking to one of my best friends in the game, telling him that Hillman was smart, impressive, engaging and all those good things.

He listened. Then he said this: “Yeah. He’s never been in the big leagues.”

If there’s a tombstone for Hillman’s career as Royals manager, those are the words that should be carved on it.

I suspect things may end even worse for Jennings.

May 13, 2015

Taylor Made

Leave a reply

Michael Taylor comes up for Washington in the top of the ninth with the bases loaded and one out, the Nationals trailing the Diamondbacks 6-5. He was batting in Bryce Harper‘s slot because Harper was ejected for arguing on a check swing. Taylor gets ahead in the count and delivers a grand slam to straight away center. It was Taylor’s first time up in the majors with the bases loaded.

The Nationals will defend the 9-6 lead in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: Washington wins 9-6.

May 10, 2015

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Given the number of pitchers with high ERAs schedule to start on Sunday, the pink bats may get a good workout.

Texas sends Wandy Rodriguez against Tampa Bay and Jake Odorizzi. Rodriguez is off to a good start, his 16 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings helping to cover up his high walk and home run rates. Odorizzi, however, has yet to allow a home run in 40 2/3 innings, the most innings this season without allowing a long ball. What makes that interesting is that Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher. He’s allowing a lower percentage than usual, but he still lets batters put the ball in the air. Throughout his career, however, batters have been more likely to pop one up than pop one out.

Jesse Chavez tries to right the ship for Oakland against Felix Hernandez and the Mariners. A four-game losing streak puts the Athletics at 12-20, the second worst record in the American League. Chavez owns a 1.80 ERA thanks to strength in all three-true outcomes. In addition, he holds batters to a .139 BA with runners on base this season. King Felix seldom pitches a season where his win total reflects his great ERA. That may be changing this season as he is off to a 5-0 start, with just one no-decision. At age 29 he may be at the height of his endurance. Note how his batting average allowed doesn’t fall off in the late innings.

Finally, the Royals and Tigers play the rubber game of their series, the winner claiming first place in the AL Central. Chris Young takes on Shane Greene. Young worked six games out of the bullpen this year, but his one start came against the Tigers. He held them scoreless for five innings, striking out nine. Greene gave up just two runs in his first three starts, then teams figured him out. He allowed 20 runs in his last three starts. His walk and home run rates are excellent, he simply does not strike out enough batters to prevent hits.

Enjoy!

April 14, 2015 April 14, 2015 April 14, 2015 April 13, 2015

Harper on Betts

2 Replies

Mookie Betts prevented a Bryce Harper home run with a leaping catch, and Harper appreciated the play, and Mookie in general:

“That bat speed that he has, that running ability that he has, being able to play center field like he does. He’d be in the lineup every day for me if he was mine,” Harper said. “He’s an unbelievable ballplayer, a lot of fun to watch. I wish he wouldn’t have robbed that homer, but great players make great plays. It’s tough.”

I’m taking my family to the game tomorrow. Yesterday, my daughter asked me if there were any Red Sox players she should know about. I said Mookie Betts. My daughter never heard the name Mookie before, so I explained about Mookie Wilson and the 1986 World Series. Betts’s name is a bit more interesting. His full name is Markus Lynn Betts:

Betts’ parents chose his name in part to form the initials MLB, matching those of Major League Baseball.[13] He has attributed his nickname Mookie to his parents watching former NBA guard Mookie Blaylock play basketball shortly after Betts was born. Betts has stated he has never met Blaylock.[44]

I guess he was destined to be a baseball player.

April 9, 2015

Going, Going Gonzalez

2 Replies

Adrian Gonzalez is off to a hot start as he hit three home runs Wednesday night:

Gonzalez homered three times in a game for the first time in his 12-year career, powering the Dodgers to a 7-4 victory Wednesday night over the Kemp-led Padres at Dodger Stadium.

In doing so, the four-time All-Star became the first player in major league history to hit five home runs in his team’s first three games of a season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

For the Dodgers, that translated to two victories in the three-game series.

All three homers came off Padres starter Andrew Cashner, and took place in the first five innings. Cashner faced Gonzalez more than any other batter, Adrian is the only player to hit more than two home runs off Andrew. Gonzalez is slugging .880 against Cashner.

Gonzalez’s career high in home runs was 40 back in 2009, and he hasn’t hit 30 in a season since 2010. With a hot start, he’s given himself a good chance to reach the latter. He’s also slugging 2.077 at the moment. That means his average at bat ends in a double!

April 3, 2015

Yes, Yes, Yes, You Can Drink It Some More

4 Replies

An arbitrator determined that Major League Baseball cannot discipline Josh Hamilton for falling off the wagon:

MLB said it took “the position that Hamilton violated his treatment program and is subject to discipline by the commissioner.”

A four-person treatment board created by baseball’s joint drug program, which includes one lawyer and one medical representative each appointed by management and the players’ association, deadlocked 2-2 on whether Hamilton should be disciplined. That caused the need for an arbitrator to break the tie.

The arbitrator said only that Hamilton was not subject to discipline and did not give reasons for the decision, the person familiar with the case told The Associated Press.

I’m quite frankly shocked by this. I think the MLBPA is a bit surprised as well:

The Major League Baseball Players Association said in a statement that it will “respect the integrity of the negotiated joint drug agreement process and protocols, as well as any decisions that are the result of that process.”

Note that this is a pretty neutral statement, the MLBPA is not celebrating this as a victory.

Anyway, it seems Josh can abuse substances all he wants now, as long as he turns himself in? He needs to take some advice from Ringo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZN_8M4OpMo

March 24, 2015

Team Offense, Miami Marlins

Leave a reply

The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished sixteenth in the majors and seventh in the the National League in 2014 with 3.98 runs scored per game.

I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. In this case, I’m going with the USA Today lineup, as it seems to match more of what the Marlins are using in spring training. That Mike Redmond lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used their actual averages from 2014. That information produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.38 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.13
Worst lineup: 3.70
Regressed lineup: 3.90

I don’t like the projected batting order very much. It puts two players with low OBPs, Dee Gordon and Michael Morse in the one and four slots, and those are two slots where OBP is important. The LAT does like the Gordon, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton sequence, but 9-1-2, not 1-2-3. Stanton and Yelich are going to have to carry the offense. Only Adeiny Hechavarria projects to be really poor at the plate, but the rest of the order while not terrible, isn’t terribly good. I’m not sure the moves they made this winter actually improved the offense.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:

January 14, 2015

Diamondbacks and the Numbers

Leave a reply

A number of people are picking up on this quote by Dave Stewart on why James Shields might be a good fit on the Diamondbacks:

“I think James is a throwback guy by the way he goes about his business and the innings he pitches,” Stewart said. “I think the fact that Tony (La Russa) is here and that we have more baseball people – he probably sees us as a true baseball team vs. some of the other teams out here that are geared more toward analytics and those type of things.

“Sometimes, there are concessions the player will make to be here. It’s the case that he likes what we’re doing with our organization from our end, all we can hope is that there will be concessions enough that he can be here.”

It’s nice being a true baseball team, but a lot of those less true teams won a lot of games in 2014.

What’s interesting to me is that back in November, Tony la Russa made a big deal about hiring Dr. Ed Lewis:

“Ed gave me my first introduction to advanced analytics when he worked with our offensive preparation in St. Louis and I’ve always been impressed with his intelligence and integrity,” said La Russa. “It was clear that Stew and Derrick were also very impressed by his wealth of knowledge. He is a scientist who is mathematically inclined and he knows the game. Most importantly, he understands our approach to it.”

Let’s hope that Dr. Lewis is simply good at getting Stewart to use numbers without Stewart realizing he’s using numbers, or that Stewart is saying what he thinks Shields wants to hear to sign him.

January 10, 2015

Z to A’s

Leave a reply

Oakland and Tampa Bay executed a trade as the Rays continue to stockpile for the future:

The Oakland Athletics have acquired infielder Ben Zobrist and shortstop Yunel Escobar from the Tampa Bay Rays for catcher John Jaso and a pair of minor league players.

The Rays also received top shortstop prospect Daniel Robertson, minor league outfielder Boog Powell and cash considerations.

Zobrist may be the definition of a Moneyball player. He posted fWARs over five during his last four seasons, and in five of the last six. He hits and fields, and can play a large number of positions. The Athletics will pay just $14.5 million for two years of that type of service.

While Boog Powell is not related to the famous Orioles first baseman, I look forward to broadcasters announcing, “They’re not saying boo.” Powell hasn’t produced power in the minors, but does a great job of getting on base. Robertson is similar.

The Athletics get someone who can help them compete this year, while the Rays stock their minors and get a catcher with some offensive value (and an old friend).

January 6, 2015

Internet Voting

1 Reply

The Internet Baseball Writers of America, of which I’m a member, announced the result of their Hall of Fame Voting.

Los Angeles– In its 2015 Hall of Fame election the IBWAA selected Randy Johnson (with 98.24% of the vote), Pedro Martinez (95.15%), John Smoltz (82.82%), Jeff Bagwell (81.94%) and Tim Raines (79.30%). A 75% threshold is required for election.

Curt Schilling finished in sixth place, with 65.64%. Roger Clemens garnered 64.76% (after receiving 56.64% in 2014) and Barry Bonds received 63.44% (57.52% last year).

There are 338 members in the IBWAA, of which 227 voted in this election, both essentially doubling last year’s totals.

Per a group decision in January, 2014, the IBWAA allows members to vote for 15 players, instead of the previous 10, beginning with this election. With their first opportunity to do so, 136 members voted for more than 10 candidates. Fifty-two members voted for 15 players. The average vote per member was 11.084.

Note that Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza were elected previously, and Barry Larkin has not been elected by this group.

November 17, 2014

Transaction Monday

Leave a reply

Two major deals were completed today, and thanks to BleacherNation for the pointers.

First, Russell Martin returns to the AL East.

Sixteen million dollars a year is pretty good for a catcher whose career offensive strength is drawing walks. If someone has a career year at 31, I don’t think he’s likely to repeat, especially if he is a catcher. That said, the Blue Jays probably want him for his defense more than his offense, and given how good Martin is behind the plate, it’s not a bad deal. Toronto overpaid, but not by much.

The Cardinals and Braves traded two young but veteran players:

Jason Heyward will play 2015 as a 25 year old, so the Cardinals get him just as he enters his prime. He can be a free agent at the end of 2015, so I suspect the Cardinals will try to sign him to a longer term deal. Shelby Miller is a year younger, and is coming off a down year. He’s young enough that it may just be the league adjusting to him, and he needs to adjust back. Walden is a good reliever, while Tyrell Jenkins has shown a degradation in his K rate as he moves up the minor league system. It looks to me like the Braves didn’t want to sign Heyward long term, so they got something for him while they could. Off-hand, the Cardinals appear to have gotten the better of the deal.

October 28, 2014

Home Field Advantage

Leave a reply

For some reason, the Royals strike out less at home than on the road in the post season.

In the post season, Royals strike out 16.7% of the time at home, 21.1% of the time on the road.

In the World Series, they strike out 16.7% of the time at home, 21.2% of the time on the road.

Kansas City’s offense works by putting the ball in play and hoping good things happen. They’ve done a better job of that in Kauffman stadium this autumn.

October 26, 2014

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

Game five of the World Series offers a rematch of game one as James Shields and the Royals challenge Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. The best of seven series is tied at two games apiece.

Shields has now made ten starts in the post-season for his career, and the results are disappointing. His regular season ERA stands at 3.72, his post-season ERA two runs higher at 5.74. His three-true outcomes in the post-season are a little worse, but not terribly worse. The big change is that he allows 8.8 hits per nine during the regular season, 11.5 during the post-season.

Hits allowed tend to be a combination of pitching and defense. Shields always played for good defensive teams. It’s possible that Shields is the type of pitcher who can dominate weak opponents, but teams of strong hitters, like you might see in the post-season, can square up his pitches.

Bumgarner, on the other hand, excels in the post-season. His 3.06 regular season ERA drops to 2.54 in 12 post-season appearances, 11 of them starts. He has not been consistent, pitching great in 2010 and 2014, but poorly in 2012. Overall, however, he’s a great post-season pitcher.

Bumgarner’s three true outcomes are close to his regular season numbers. He allows home runs at the same low rate, gives up fewer walks, which is balanced by fewer strikeouts as well. His hits per nine, however, drops from 8.0 hits per nine innings in the regular season to 6.9 per nine innings in the post-season.

I expect to see the Royals bullpen early in this game.

Enjoy!

October 11, 2014