Denard Span played a good series in Canada, his two for four with a walk and a homer helping the Twins to a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays. The solo home run came in the ninth inning and proved to be the difference in the game. Span reached base at least twice in each game so far, doing his job of setting the table for the big hitters in the middle of the lineup. His OBP stands at .538 after three games.
The Giants decided to keep Brandon Belt on the team. That should be very good news for Giants fans, although I wonder why they didn’t keep him down until May to save a year of free agency. Might they have plans to sign him long term, like the Rays did with Evan Longoria?
I think this is great news. Shocking, actually. But I love it. I love that the Giants are going all-in. This is for the title defense, man! The organization must think Belt can deliver the goods. I love their willingness to take a chance with this kid–he must really be that impressive. I’m sure a lot of it is demeanor, maturity, and work ethic, all the stuff you can’t see on TV. His spring batting line (.282/.338/.479) isn’t as interesting as the fact that he played in the most games (28), had the second-most at bats (71), and saw the most pitches (172). They were clearly fast-tracking him and he responded.
The Giants are suddenly becoming a younger team. That’s also good news.
Video of the end of the half, Harvard leads Princeton 32-25.
With the new baseball season approaching, the latest baseball books are starting to appear on the doorstep. Satch, Dizzy, and Rapid Robert: The Wild Saga of Interracial Baseball Before Jackie Robinson
John Thorn, the new official baseball historian, brings us Baseball in the Garden of Eden: The Secret History of the Early Game
Campy: The Two Lives of Roy Campanella
Finally, The Extra 2%
All four books are available for the Kindle Wireless Reading Device
Earlier today I noticed that Josh Beckett was hit in the head by a batted ball, but the reports at the time indicated he was okay. Now it seems he has a headache and a chance of a concussion.
Ozzie Guillen tried to decide if he should bat Adam Dunn or Alex Rios third, and yesterday he decided on Dunn. The Lineup Analysis Tool took yesterday’s lineup (substituting Mark Teahen at third) and used Marcel projections to see how it would do. Ozzie came out on the high side, with his lineup projected to score 4.8 runs per game. The best scores 4.9 runs per game, the worst 4.6. There is a group of good players (Beckham, Dunn, Korerko and Quentin) that are fairly even, and a group of poor hitters (everyone else), who are also pretty even. So as long as Ozzie gets the better players at the top and the poorer ones at the bottom, he’ll use something close to the optimum order.
Phoebe the schnoodle.
At Baseball Analytics, I look at Nick Markakis’s diminishing fly ball distance.
Chris Jaffe presents his annual Hall of Fame voting predictions. He sees Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven receiving over 75% of the vote. His take on Jeff Bagwell is worth the read:
Bagwell’s the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It’s just hard to go in the first year period. It’s the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the “average” great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.
Bagwell lacks that hook. He’s the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell’s numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he’ll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.
I wonder if that was the problem with Blyleven’s candidacy all these years? He had a great hook on the mound, but not in the stat sheets.
There’s still a chance that the trade of Adrian Gonzalez to Boston takes place.
But no one knows for sure if the failure of the Red Sox and Gonzalez to reach a contract agreement scuttles the deal that would have netted the Padres four prospects.
Will the Red Sox seek a negotiating extension?
Will they go-ahead with the trade, hoping to work out an agreement with Gonzalez during the season or next winter after the three-time All-Star becomes a free agent?
Or Will Gonzalez be returning to the Padres?
It would be very risky for the Red Sox to go ahead with the trade without signing Gonzalez to an extension. With nothing in writing, Adrian could easily walk after the 2011 season, leaving Boston with nothing and three good prospects in San Diego. I would not be surprised if they asked for an extension, but it seems to me Gonzalez is in the drivers seat here. The team and player want each other, but Adrian doesn’t need to go right now. He’ll make plenty of money in 2011 and even more after that when multiple teams are allowed to bid on him.
Derek Jeter will make a minimum of $51 million and a maximum of $65 million depending on how he plays over the next four years. His base salary for the first three seasons comes in at $16 million. In that regard, the Yankees only budged a little bit. If Jeter doesn’t play a fourth season, there is a $3 million buyout, however. So he’s going to make $51 million over the next three years. If the option is taken, he’ll get $8 million for the fourth years, bringing the average value under $15 million, but incentives can bring that up another $9 million. I’m sure the Yankees would be please to have Derek reach those incentives.
This is an unusual contract for New York, as they normally don’t include incentives in contracts. They’re overpaying, but, the Yankees now know where they stand going into the winter meetings.
At Baseball Analytics, I examine why Cliff Lee is worth more than Jorge de la Rosa. It has to do with this video:
Game three gets underway just a little before 7 PM EDT Saturday night with the Giants trying to go up 3-0 over Texas in the World Series. A 3-0 lead is almost certain victory for the leading team. Jonathan Sanchez takes on Colby Lewis in the first World Series game in the Rangers’ home park.
Sanchez improved his ERA substantially for the third year in a row. Through the 2008 season, Sanchez owned a 5.18 ERA, striking out 9.1 batters per nine, walking 4.5 per 9 and allowing 0.86 HR per 9. Since then, Jonathan increased hits rates to 9.6/4.6/1.01, but the higher Ks (and likely a better Giants defense) helped keep his hits down and lowered his ERA to 3.61.
Sanchez stand 0-1 in his three playoff starts. He’s shown decent control for him with six walks in 15 1/3 innings but hasn’t allowed a home run while striking out 19. He only lasted two innings against the Phillies in his last start, walking two and hitting a batter, and Bochy got him out of the game before his wildness could cause a real problem. Sanchez also struck out 19 in the post season.
Do to his high K rate this year, neither lefties nor righties hit him well. Left handers hit .181, righties .210. Both sides, however, did a good job drawing walks, bringing their on-base percentage over .300. If Sanchez is wild, Texas can generate enough power in their home park to score enough runs to win this game.
Lewis is also pitching well in the post-season. In three starts he allowed just three runs, and pitched brilliantly in game six of the ALCS against the Yankees, holding them on one run and three hits over eight innings.
Lewis owns a high strikeout rate, although not as high as Sanchez. Unlike Jonathan, however, Colby shows much better control. Lewis is extremely careful with left-handed batters, trying to keep everything away from them.
Colby Lewis pitch frequency 2010 against left-handed batters.
He’s willing to walk lefties rather than give them something to hit, and he walks them almost twice as much as right-handed batters. Colby went 3-1 against National League teams this season, posting a 2.57 ERA (Houston, Milwaukee and the Cubs). They weren’t the strongest teams to face, but the Giants offense, despite the first two games of this series, isn’t that strong either. This should be a very good matchup, and one the Rangers can win if they let Sanchez be wild.
Enjoy!
Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the graph.
Mariano Rivera retires the Rangers in the eighth, and that bring on Neftali Feliz to get three outs and preserve the Rangers 6-1 lead. That will send them to the World Series for the first time in the 50 year franchise history. Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez are schedule to bat.
Update: Granderson gets ahead 2-1. Curtis strikes out swinging for the first out, however.
Update: Cano gets ahead 2-1. He grounds out 3-1 for the second out. One more for the pennant!
Update: A-Rod falls behind 1-2 as Feliz is throwing 99 MPH. Alex strikes out looking, and the Rangers win the AL Pennant!
Some Python Code:
def reverseTheString(sText):
sPrint = ''
if len(sText) > 0:
sChar = sText[0]
sPrint = reverseTheString(sText[1:]) + sChar
return sPrint
print reverseTheString(‘Cody Ross’)
>>>’ssoR Ydoc’
Not as sorry as Doc is.
This week Spitball Army uses the FM Playlist to compare the solo careers of John Lennon and Paul McCartney.
Of course, the two were pretty good singing together.
Many years ago, I was listening to Terry Gross interviewing a musician, and asked him to name a song he thought was cool that wasn’t considered cool. He named “Dancing Queen.” When asked why, he basically said that he loved songs about 17 year old women. Obviously, so did the Beatles.
Was Evan Longoria rusty? Due to his leg injury, Evan did not play in the regular season after Sept. 23rd. He went 1 for 12 with a walk and three strikeouts in the ALDS before busting out Sunday afternoon with two doubles and a home run. I could believe that he needed a few games to get his batting eye and swing back. With Carlos Pena getting his stroke back as well, the Rays look much more potent than the team that lost the first two games in Tampa Bay.
I have to believe Josh Hamilton‘s ribs are hurting his swing. He’s just 2 for 14 with two walks. The Rangers have to hope he gets the rust off as well on Tueday.
No give-game LDS series has ever seen every game won on the road. This could be a first.
The Rangers get their second chance to clinch at home today as they send Tommy Hunter against the Rays and Wade Davis. Davis played 2010 as a 24-year-old rookie, improving as the season progressed. Looking at his all-star game splits, he cut down on his walks, from 4.02 per 9 IP before the break to 2.43 after. He also kept the ball in the park much better with a HR rate of 38.3 per 200 innings before, 16.2 per 200 after. That helped him to a 6-1 record with a 3.23 ERA post break.
Davis pitched against Texas in the first half of the season, and suffered his worst start of the year, allowing two home runs and eight runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. That game was also in Arlington.
Hunter is a year younger than Davis with more major league experience. His 2010 was no better than his 2009 performance, (and given the increase in home runs allowed a little worse), but he delivered an ERA about a quarter of a run lower. He held opponents to a .196 BA with runners in scoring position, and 15 of the 21 homers he allowed were solo shots. Although not a high strikeout pitcher, Hunter allows neither hits nor walks in great quantities, allowing him to survive the high home run rate. He is undefeated in Arlington this season, 7-0 with a 3.06 ERA. His walk and strikeout rates both move in a much more positive direction at his home ballpark.
The Giants and Braves follow with that series tied at one. Jonathan Sanchez squares off against Tim Hudson. With Atlanta going down to the wire to win a playoff spot, they needed to use their ace last Sunday to pitch them into the playoffs, holding him back until game three. That may actually give the Braves an advantage, as the matchup of a one and a three starter might give them a lead in the series.
Sanchez is not your typical number three starter, however. His 3.07 ERA ranked 13th in the National League, meaning he could be a number one starter on many teams. His strength lies in his ability to strikeout batters, his 9.54 K per 9 IP ranked third in the NL among ERA qualifiers. He does tend to get wild, however, something that a high walk team like the Braves could use to their advantage. Jonathan pitched great down the stretch, allowing a 1.01 ERA over his last six games.
Hudson pitched remarkably well, having returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2009. He pitched about a run an a quarter better than his FIP, due mostly to his high ground ball rate, 64.1%. Batter had an extremely tough time squaring the ball up, as his line drives came in at just 13.6%. Batters did catch up with him a bit from September first on, as he allowed nine of his 20 home runs in that span. It may have been fatigue from throwing 200 innings for the first time since 2007, so we’ll see how the week off helps.
Finally, the Phillies go for the sweep in Cincinnati as Cole Hamels, the 2 in H2O, takes the mound against Johnny Cueto. Hamels was dogged by home runs early in the season, giving up 19 in 112 innings before the All-Star break. Since then, he only allowed 7 in 96 2/3 innings, part of a surge by Cole that saw his overall hits fall greatly as well. He didn’t strike out that many more batters, but I suspect they were seeing fewer mistakes as he ERA came in at 2.23 post break. His transformation happened a little before the break, as he shutout the Reds for 7 2/3 innings on July 11th.
Cueto pitched tough at home this season, with a higher K rate, lower walk rate, and despite the configuration of the park, a much lower home run rate. Only six of his 19 home runs allowed came at Great American Ballpark. Cuteo cut down on his fly balls allowed this season, and those that were hit had a much better chance of staying in the yard. He made two starts against the Phillies this season. He walked four and struck out just three in 15 innings of work, but successfully pitched to contact as Philadelphia batters managed just ten hits against him. He came away with a 1-0 record and a 1.20 ERA.
Enjoy!
Roy Halladay gets two fly balls and a ground out as he retires the Reds in order in the sixth inning. That was his fifth 1-2-3 inning of the game, a walk in the fifth the only blemish on his no-hitter. He’s thrown 69 pitches, 52 for strikes, 75.3%. Time to tune in and see if Roy can make history.
The Phillies continue to lead 4-0 as they go to the bottom of the sixth inning.
The Rockies loss to San Francisco Sunday pretty much wiped out any chance of a four-way tie between the Braves, Giants, Padres and Rockies. There are only two chances left for this tie, at 89 and 90 wins. Here’s the 90 win scenario:
The probability of a three-way tie between the best three teams in that list went up, however. There are four win totals that bring the teams into parity, from 89 to 92. The odds of this are a little better than one in 21. This is the 92 win scenario.
Here’s the daily chart of probabilities (click for a larger version):
The next few days are critical, as San Diego and San Francisco need to be separated by one or three games to make this happen. So for tonight:
By San Diego losing, the open that one game gap needed between the Padres and the Giants.
One bright spot for the Pirates this season is the relief pitching of Evan Meek. He retired the two batters he faced tonight in the ninth, earning the win when Pittsburgh broke a 3-3 tie in the bottom of the inning for a 4-3 win over Arizona. Meek lowered his ERA to 1.97 and his BA allowed to .191. He’s struck out 61 in 73 innings with just 27 walks. Most impressively, he’s given up just four home runs.
The Pirates now have won 49 games while losing 98. We’ll see if they get to 50 wins before they lose 100.
The Cardinals could not take advantage of Jeff Samardzija‘s wildness Monday night. Despite drawing four walks against him in 5 1/3 innings, and collecting six hits, St. Louis could not score against the Cubs starter and go down 5-1. That puts them seven games back with a Reds magic number of 13 with twenty to play (18 for the Reds). The Cards need to beat up on teams like the Cubs down the stretch, and they’re just not getting it done.
After blowing a big lead and falling behind the Phillies 12-7, the Rockies score three runs in the eighth and put the winning run on base in the ninth. They only score one run off Brad Lidge in the final frame as he records an edge of your seat save for the 12-11 Phillies victory.
Antonio “You Magnificent” Bastardo gets his first win despite giving up four hits and allowing a run in his inning of work. This is an example of a game where the win should go to the offense. The Rockies drop to 6 1/2 games back in the wild card race, 7 1/2 back in the NL West.
Kosuke Fukudome goes three for three with a walk against the Pirates in a 5-3 Cubs win. Fukudome batted almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers, 272 against righties, only 28 against lefties. He’s hitting very well with the platoon advantage, but selective use against lefties gives him very good averages in that situation as well. One of his doubles came off Wil Ledezma, a lefty, today. Proper use of Kosuke is getting the Cubs better production from their outfielder.
Shaun Marcum just completed five innings against the Athletics without allowing a hit. He’s walked one batter as Toronto holds a 3-0 going to the top of the sixth.
I just upgraded to WordPress 3.0.1. Please let me know if something doesn’t work.
I’m at the Durham Bulls game against Buffalo. The Bulls lead 3-0 in the fourth.
This is excellent news for the Mets as Carlos Beltran played an extended spring training game today. For the first time this season, there is a positive vibe that Beltran will be back soon.
This post about Brian Bannister and his use of PITCH f/x started making me rethink the reasons for the recently decline in offense. As a frame of reference, the following table shows major league runs per game over the last 25 years.
| Season | Runs Per Game |
|---|---|
| 1986 | 8.8 |
| 1987 | 9.4 |
| 1988 | 8.3 |
| 1989 | 8.3 |
| 1990 | 8.5 |
| 1991 | 8.6 |
| 1992 | 8.2 |
| 1993 | 9.2 |
| 1994 | 9.8 |
| 1995 | 9.7 |
| 1996 | 10.1 |
| 1997 | 9.5 |
| 1998 | 9.6 |
| 1999 | 10.2 |
| 2000 | 10.3 |
| 2001 | 9.5 |
| 2002 | 9.2 |
| 2003 | 9.5 |
| 2004 | 9.6 |
| 2005 | 9.2 |
| 2006 | 9.7 |
| 2007 | 9.6 |
| 2008 | 9.3 |
| 2009 | 9.2 |
| 2010 | 8.9 |
During the shift from scoring in the low to mid eights to the high nines, most of the changes in the game favored the batter. New ballparks tended to favor home runs. Expansion of both leagues and team pitching staffs meant more replacement pitchers were getting innings in the big leagues. (Two expansion teams added 22 pitchers. Going from 10 to 11 man pitching staffs added another 26.) Ball manufacturing became more consistent (and at the high end of tightness, I believe). The advantage of weight training became apparent, aided in many cases by PEDs. The strike zone became smaller, first by convention, then by rule. All of these changes helped batters.
Since the introduction of PITCH f/x in 2007, runs per game went down every year. Notice that testing for PEDs didn’t do that much, scoring bouncing around in a 0.5 run range from 2001 through 2007 (testing starting in 2004). PITCH f/x provides much more information to the pitcher than the batter:
Before PITCH f/x, hurlers needed to rely on the eyes of their coach or catcher to pick up flaws in their release point. Now they can study data, comparing good outings to bad ones to see precisely where their release point was. When scouting batters, the pitcher not only knows where in the strike zone this batter is weak, but the combination of pitches and location.
I’m not sure how much this technology helps batters. As long as the pitcher mixes up his patterns, it’s tough for the batter to know what’s coming. The iPod video probably helps more in this regard, since hitting is more pattern recognition. If pitchers use specific release points for different types of pitches, then it could help the batter recognize what’s coming.
Better information is following to the pitcher right now, information that can be used to fix flaws and attack batter weak points. We’ll see if the trend continues, but it may be that information technology does more to curb offense than limiting drug use.