The Phillies beat the Marlins 7-1 in another Wild Card series where the losing team gets shutdown. Aaron Nola pitched seven shutout innings. He walked one and struck out three, but only allowed three hits as the Phillies defense turned balls in play into outs. The Marlins scored just two runs in the series, their pitching not enough to stop the Phillies bats to let their low scoring offense win.
The Phillies face the Braves in the all NL East League division series in two days.
The Brewers generated chances to tie the game in both the eighth and ninth innings, but they could not push runs across the plate and the Arizona Diamondbacks win 5-2. The advance to the NLDS against the Dodgers in an all Pacific time zone series.
The Diamondbacks out-homered the Brewers 4-1 in the series, and that made the difference. Milwaukee out hit Arizona 21-15, but the extra power by the DBacks made the difference.
Bryson Stott may have landed his marlin as his grand slam in the sixth inning puts the Phillies up 7-0 over Miami. That’s the first grand slam of his career, and in general he hasn’t hit will with the bases loaded.
It appears the Diamondbacks cornered the market on pitchers with double As in their last name. Andrew Saalfrank comes in to pitch against the Brewers with the bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the eighth inning, Arizona leading 5-3. Saalfrank gets two ground balls to end the inning and the threat. The rookie allowed just two runs, both unearned, in his 10 1/3 innings during his cup of coffee.
Alek Thomas of the Diamondbacks breaks up a Freddy Peralta no-hitter with a home run pulled to rightfield. That cuts the Brewers lead to 2-1.
Thomas is in his second year, playing at seasonal age 23. His poor BA and OBP did not improve this season, but his power did. He went from 26 extra-base hits in 381 at bats to 31 extra-base hits in 374 at bats. The triple is not dead, as he increased his total from one to five.
The Twins beat the Blue Jays 2-0 to win a low scoring Wild Card series two games to none. Sonny Gray pitched five shutout innings for the win, throwing 85 pitches. The bullpen struck out five and walked none in their four innings of work. It possible that Gray could start game two of the division series on three-days rest.
There was no offensive start in the game. All sixteen hits were singles, and the teams combined to go 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position.
These two teams came into the series with the best pitching staffs on the AL side, and they lived up to that billing. As in the regular season the Twins were just a bit better.
Minnesota faces Houston in the ALDS. They’ll need their pitchers at their best to beat that offense.
The Rangers sweep the Rays with a 7-1 win on Wednesday afternoon. The team that ranked ninth in runs allowed per game held Tampa Bay to one run, one walk and no home runs in two games.
The Rangers offense is healthy again, and their great youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter shined in the series as well. They move on to face the Orioles.
I am shocked, shocked I say to get out of work and see the Rangers up 7-1 on the Rays. Every member of the Rangers lineup owns at least one hit. The eight-nine hitters, Josh Jung and Evan Cater, are a combined four for six with a walk, a hit by pitch, two doubles and a triple. Nathan Eovaldi pitched 6 2/3 innings, walking none and striking out eight. The Rays, who were middle of the pack in walks in 2023, have drawn one walk in the two games.
It looks like they are going to get swept at home, and as an added indignity, they drew very small crowds, around 20,000 fans each game.
Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers tries to clinch a trip to the ALDS as he faces the Rays and Zach Eflin. Eovaldi posted a 12-5 record for the Rangers, his 3.63 ERA more that good enough for the high scoring team. He did have a poor September, however, allowing seven home runs and 13 walks in 20 1/3 innings for a 9.30 ERA. Eflin set a career single season high in wins with 16 with a 3.50 ERA. He walked just 24 batters in 177 2/3 innings, the second best rate in the majors. The game kicks off just after 3 PM EDT.
At 4:30 EDT, the Twins try for a post-season winning streak as the Blue Jays send Jose Berrios against Sonny Gray. Berrios pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against Minnesota in his one start this season, despite allowing four hits and five walks. Gray’s ERA came in at third lowest in the majors, while no one came close to his ability to prevent home runs.
The Diamondbacks win on Tuesday allows them to send their ace, Zac Gallen to the mound in a clinching game against the Brewers and Freddy Peralta. Gallen made 34 starts and pitched 210 innings with great three-true outcomes, helping him earn 17 wins. Peralta pitches much better at home, with a 3.44 ERA in Milwaukee versus 4.34 on the road. His strikeout rate goes way up at home, reducing the number of hits allowed. The game gets underway at 7 PM EDT.
At 8 PM, the Marlins take on the Phillies once more. Braxton Garrett battles Aaron Nola. Garrett showed greatly improved control this season as his workload increased. He struck out 156 and walked 29 in 159 2/3 innings. The Fish gave Nola problems this season, 0-2 in three starts with a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings. While Nola did not issue a walk in those games, Miami hit five home runs off him.
Enjoy!
The Marlins and Phillies combined for 18 hits in their first game of the Wild Card round, but only five runs and Philadelphia takes the contest 4-1. They combined to go just 5 for 21 with runners in scoring position, with plenty of opportunities but little delivery. Part of it came from ten strikeouts on each side, doing little to advance runners. Part of it was only one walk, so the hits would be less effective.
Zack Wheeler get the star of the game honors, as he goes 6 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts and only one run allowed. He was able to exploit the weak Marlins offense to get the win.
In a rather slow game, 3:36, the Diamondbacks beat the Brewers 6-3. There were lots of in-inning pitching changes as each side used seven pitches a number of challenges, and a lot of batters reaching base. In the end, the Diamondbacks collected four extra-base hits to the Brewers two, and that made the difference in the game.
Evan Longoria made a number of excellent plays at third base. He didn’t always get the runner, but he turned two potential doubles into a double play and a single. He also caught a runner going too far on an infield single.
Both teams could use a very long outing from their starters tomorrow.
Evan Longoria of the Diamondbacks channels his inner Brooks Robinson as he snags a line drive off the bat of Tyrone Taylor of the Brewers with the bases loaded and one out. Off the bat, I thought it was a sure hit to leftfield, but Longoria dove to his left to snag the ball and threw to second to get the runner wo was too far off the bag to end the inning. The Diamondbacks continue to lead 4-3 as the game goes to the top of the sixth inning.
Corbin Burnes of the Brewers leaves the game in the top of the fifth inning with the Diamondbacks leading 4-3, and two men on base with none out. Burnes allowed three home runs, the third time he allowed at least that many in a start this season. In 2019, he also allowed at least three home runs in a game three times, the only other time he allowed that many. He made 80 starts in between without allowed three in a game.
Corbin Burnes of the Brewers gives up three straight hits to start the third inning, the last two home runs by Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Burnes gave up 22 home runs in 193 2/3 innings, so his rate was fine. The DBacks are seeing the ball well and hitting it hard in this inning, and tied the Brewers at three. Tyrone Taylor hit a two run blast for Milwaukee in the second inning.
The Twins beat the Blue Jays in the Twins way. Their batters struck out eleven times, walked six times, and hit two home runs, so 19 of their 35 PA ended in a three-true outcome. That was enough for three runs. A good outing from Pablo Lopez and a stellar 3 1/3 innings from the bullpen gives Minnesota a 3-1 win. That breaks their 18-game post-season losing streak. Royce Lewis hit both home runs.
The Blue Jays did put the ball in play, with just seven strikeouts, but the Twins defense allowed just six hits.
Jordan Montgomery of the Rangers makes his acquisition by Texas pay off with seven shutout innings against the Rays. Texas takes game one of their AL Wild Card series 4-0. The Rangers pitchers walked a lot of batters this season, but Montgomery did not issue a free pass, the Rays only drawing one walk to go with their five singles and a double in the game.
On the other side, the Rays were changed with four errors. This is a team that uses defense as a cost saving measure. Only one of the Rangers runs were unearned, however.
Rookie Evan Carter hit two doubles, continuing the power display he showed in his cup of coffee.
The Rays still have home field advantage, but they’ll have to find a way to drive the ball out of the park, or string more hits together.
The Rangers and Rays kick-off the 2023 post season in St. Petersburg as Jordan Montgomery faces Tyler Glasnow. Texas won the season series between the teams 4-2. Montgomery pitched decently for the Cardinals over the first two thirds of the season, owning a 3.42 ERA. When he joined the Rangers, he dialed down the walks to go 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA in eleven starts, averaging over six innings per start. Glasnow made 21 starts with excellent three-true outcomes. He struck out 162 batters in 120 innings with just 37 walks 13 home runs allowed. In his one start against the Rangers he allowed one hit and one run in six innings.
Toronto saved Kevin Gausman for the post-season as he gets the start in Minneapolis against the Twins and Pablo Lopez. Gausman blow batters away with 237 strikeouts in 185 innings. His home run rate is okay for someone in the strike zone with nineteen dingers allowed. The Twins do swing from the fences, so expect a lot of whiffs in the bottom halves of innings.
Lopez came over in the Luis Arraez deal, a trade that helped both teams make the playoffs. He tries to end Minnesota’s 18-game post-season losing streak. Twins starters own a 5.22 ERA over that streak, although there were a number of good starts. Nine of the losses went to the bullpen. Lopez pitched better after the All-Star Break, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA. He cut down on walks, issuing eleven in 83 innings.
Arizona travels to Milwaukee to start the NL Wild Card round with Brandon Pfaadt against Corbin Burnes. With the Diamondbacks going down to the wire to make the playoffs, neither of their outstanding starers is able to go in game one. The rookie Pfaadt fought hard during the season, but ended with a 5.72 ERA as he allowed 22 home runs in 96 innings. Fifteen of those 22 homers came on the road, although his ERA away came in lower. Burnes gets the game one start due to an injury to Brandon Woodruff. Burnes, with high strikeout rate and a great defense behind him allowed just 141 hits in 193 2/3 innings this season. Burnes owns a 1.20 post-season ERA, although that came mostly in relief.
Finally, the Marlins visit the Phillies with Jesus Luzardo taking on Zack Wheeler. Luzardo won both is starts against the Phillies, striking out 14 and walking two in 12 1/3 innings. Wheeler made three starts against the Marlins averaging six innings each with a 3.00 ERA, but did not get a decision. The Phillies went 1-2 in those three games. It looks like Arraez will start for the Marlins.
I would not be surprised if the start came at designated hitter, however.
Enjoy!
The only series with two east coast teams gets the latest start time as the Marlins and Phillies, the two and one NL Wild Card teams respectively, start their series at 8 PM EDT on Tuesday October third.
Here is the offensive comparison:
| 2023 Batting (NL Ranks) | Marlins | Phillies |
| Runs per Game | 4.12 (15th) | 4.91 (4th) |
| Batting Average | .259 (2nd) | .256 (4th) |
| On-Base Average | .317 (9th) | .327 (5th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .405 (10th) | .438 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 166 (10th) | 220 (3rd) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 80.4 (10th) | 84.4 (3rd) |
| BABIP | .309 (2nd) | .308 (3rd) |
It’s jarring to see a playoff team finish last in runs scored. The Marlins scored 668 runs and allowed 723 runs. They were a plus nine over their Pythagorean projection. As you night imagine, the Marlins went 33-13 in one-run games, and 7-3 in extra inning games. The hit very well in close and late situations, .271/.343/.419.
The Phillies, however, do almost everything offensively much better. They get on base and slug at a much higher clip, they drive the ball out of the park more, they are even better at stealing bases on a percentage basis. Both teams own very high BABIPs Miami’s thanks in large part to Luis Arraez, who contributed a .362 mark in 2023.
Here is the comparison on the defensive side:
| 2023 Pitching and Defense (NL Ranks) | Marlins | Phillies |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.46 (7th) | 4.41 (4th) |
| Earned Run Average | 4.22 (8th) | 4.02 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.3 (2nd) | 9.1 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.2 (6th) | 2.9 (3rd) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 26.6 (8th) | 25.7 (6th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .683 (11th) | .695 (4th) |
The teams are much closer in this regard, but the Phillies lead the Marlins in every category except strikeouts, and the Phillies are just a smidgen behind. Note that the NL teams ranked four through nine in RA/G are very tightly packed, with 0.1 run per game separating the lot. You can call these two teams even, with a slight advantage to the Phillies.
The most glaring difference here is the defense. The Phillies allow fewer walks, fewer home runs, and the defense is better at stopping batted balls from becoming hits. It all adds up.
Playing at home, the Phillies should win this series easily. The Marlins kept surprising down the stretch, so we will see. I see this as the most lopsided match, with Philadelphia having a 57% change of advancing to the Division Series.
The Blue Jays, holder of the third wild card slot visit the AL Central Champion Twins for their best of three Wild Card series. Game one kicks off Tuesday October third at 4:30 PM EDT. Here is a comparison of the team offenses.
| 2023 Batting (AL Ranks) | Blue Jays | Twins |
| Runs per Game | 4.60 (8th) | 4.80 (5th) |
| Batting Average | .256 (5th) | .243 (10th) |
| On-Base Average | .329 (4th) | .326 (5th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .417 (8th) | .427 (4th) |
| Home Runs | 188 (8th) | 233 (1st) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 74.4 (14th) | 81.9 (3rd) |
| BABIP | .301 (6th) | .303 (5th) |
My first thought in looking at batting averages and BABIPs is that the Twins batters must strike out a lot. Indeed, their 1654 batter Ks topped the AL. The Twins also walk a lot, second in the AL, which is why the difference in OBP between the teams is much lower than the difference in batting average. Minnesota tied with the Rangers for the most home runs in the league, so the Twins batters bring the three-true outcomes. They hit the ball hard, or miss it entirely.
The Blue Jays batters, with 1303 Ks, came in third from the bottom. They put the ball in play with authority, as seen in their good BABIP. They did finish fourth in walks, so they are not free swingers. With lower home run power, however, they need to sequence hits to score runs.
Here is a comparison on the defensive side:
| 2023 Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks) | Blue Jays | Twins |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.14 (4th) | 4.07 (1st) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.79 (2nd) | 3.87 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.5 (2nd) | 9.7 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.0 (6th) | 2.7 (2nd) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 27.3 (8th) | 26.7(6th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .693 (10th) | .697 (6th) |
The Twins pitchers strike out a ton of batters, which helps cover for a defense that is middle of the pack in turning batted balls into outs. So if the Blue Jays can put the ball in play against this defense, their BABIP might go up a bit. This may even out, as the Blue Jays play poor defense. The gap in rank between the runs per game and ERA indicates quite a few runs scoring after errors.
The Blue Jays are about average at stopping home runs, so the Twins batters should be able to hit for their normal power against Toronto. Since Toronto pitchers also strikeout a lot of batters, so it could be the Twins get very few hits other than home runs. These are two good pitching staffs that do a good job covering mid-level defenses.
With two good pitching staffs, runs should be at a premium, and I like power hitting teams in those situations. With that and home field advantage, I give the Twins a 53% chance of advancing to the division series.
The Rangers and Rays kick off the Wild Card Round on Tuesday at 3 PM EDT. The series features the top two offenses in the American League.
| 2023 Batting (AL Ranks) | Rangers | Rays |
| Runs per Game | 5.44 (1st) | 5.31 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .263 (1st) | .260 (2nd) |
| On-Base Average | .337 (1st) | .331 (2nd) |
| Slugging Percentage | .452 (1st) | .445 (2nd) |
| Home Runs | 233 (1st) | 230 (4th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 80.6 (6th) | 79.6 (9th) |
| BABIP | .310 (1st) | .308 (3rd) |
The Rangers are just a bit better in every category. Both teams are really smack the ball out of the park. While I don’t expect slugfests per se, I suspect that a high number of runs will be driven in by homers.
The pitching and defense does favor the Rays.
| 2023 Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks) | Rangers | Rays |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.42 (9th) | 4.10 (3rd) |
| Earned Run Average | 4.28 (11th) | 3.88 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.5 (12th) | 9.4 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (7th) | 2.7 (2nd) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 27.6 (9th) | 24.5 (3rd) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .702 (3rd) | .703 (2nd) |
Note that the Rangers overall runs allowed per game ranks better than their ERA. This is due to the high defensive efficiency by their fielders. The team can afford a low strikeout rate, as the fielder gobble up batted balls. Note that both these teams put strength against strength here as two high BABIP teams face two efficient defenses.
The Rays also have an advantage in the bullpen. Tampa Bay relievers posted a .224/.301/.375 opposition slash line, the Rangers pen came in at .242/.312/.408. More hits and more power. If the Rays can chase Rangers starters early, they’ll gain a nice advantage.
On a side note, the two teams played a significant number of games without their star shortstop, for very different reasons. Injuries limited Corey Seager to 119 Rangers games. Texas went 67-52 when Seager played, .563, 23-20 without him, .525. The Rays had Wander Franco for 112 games in which they went 66-46, .589. Without him, however, they went 33-17, .660. Even before his sex scandal, Franco appeared to be causing clubhouse problems. The Rays did better despite the offensive drop-off at the position.
In the end the Rays are more likely to draw a walk and hit a home run, given their better pitching. I give Tampa Bay a 55% chance of advancing to the ALDS.
The Padres beat the Mets 6-0 to advance to the NLDS against the Dodgers. Joe Musgrove pitched seven innings, allowing just one hit and one walk. The bullpen retired all six batters they faced, and this was the lowest number of hits allowed in a winner-take-all game in post-season history.
The bottom of the Padres batting order got the job done. The 7-8-9 hitters combined to go four for six with four walks, four runs, and four RBI. The Padres defense played well, especially running down hard hit balls in the outfield. In every aspect of the game tonight, the Padres dominated the Mets.
Three of the four visiting teams advance without a game at home. The built in home field advantage for the first round did not pay off. We’ll see if the Mariners, Phillies, and Padres can keep the magic going in the LDS.
As for the Mets, the ton of money spent last winter failed to pay off. The team blew a big the division lead, culminating in a final week sweep by the Braves. Then they lose two of three in a round set up for great second place teams to win. The best Buck Showalter could do in the game was try to get in head of the opposing pitcher by having him checked for a foreign substance. There will not be a subway series.
The Padres extend their lead over the Mets to 3-0 as Ha-Seong Kim draws his second walk of the game, steals second, then scores as Trent Grisham drives in his third run in three games with a single up the middle. The lower third of the Padres order score two and drove in all three runs as the game goes to the bottom of the fourth inning.
Update: Joe Musgrove, pitching for the Padres, is perfect through four innings.
Update: A single, sacrifice bunt, and a single give the Padres a 4-0 lead in the top of the fifth. Juan Soto executed the sacrifice bunt. The bunt/don’t bunt line should point to “DON’T BUNT” for Soto, but it worked.
Update: Pete Alonso of the Mets leads off the bottom of the fifth with a single, breaking up the perfect game.
Austin Nola of the Padres, brother of Phillies hero Aaron Nola, gives San Diego a 2-0 lead over the Mets in the top of the second inning. Mets starter Chris Bassitt pitched carefully around two batters to reach Nola. With two out and two strikes, Nola managed to pull the ball through the shortstop hole for a two run single.
Bassitt was having problems hearing the PitchCom due to the noise of the crowd. No telling if that contributed to the walks and hits, but this will need to be solved if the pitch clock is going to work next season.
Citi Field hosts the only winner takes all game of the 2022 Wild Card round as the Padres send Joe Musgrove against the Mets and Chris Bassitt. Bassit posted the best ERA of his career, a 2.93 mark. That was down a quarter run from his 2021 3.18 ERA. He pitched 1/3 of an inning less than last season, giving up the same number of home runs, but lowering his walks. His strikeouts were down and his hits were up, however, so it’s not clear why his ERA was that much better. One needs to look at the timing of the hits allowed, as he dropped his BA allowed with men in scoring position from .244 in 2021 to .189 in 2022.
Bassitt pitched well, posting a 15-9 record on a 3.42 ERA. While it was his best season in terms of win, it was not in terms of three true outcomes or ERA. Bassitt finished fifth in the NL in run support per 9 IP. So the game comes down to Musgrove’s ERA luck versus Bassitt wins luck.
Enjoy!
The Mets beat the Padres 7-3 Saturday night in a game that took 4:13 minutes but seemed much longer. There were 353 pitches thrown in the game, which is a bit high but I doubt it’s all that unusual. The game featured fifteen walks and twenty strikeouts, so there were lots of individual plate appearances where the pitch count was high. Thirty batters reached base, and all but four of those were singles and walks. The bases were constantly occupied, and the defense took their time thinking about the next move. This also led to a number of in-inning pitching changes.
While I really wanted a pitch clock last night. The discussion of the strategy revolving around using Mets closer Edwin Diaz in the seventh inning was enlightening, but it should take more than two pitches to get in the full argument. It appeared, due to the crowd noise, pitch com didn’t work that well. That could slow down the game as well.
The silver lining is one game today. The home field advantage has not worked well so far, except for the Guardians.
The Phillies beat the Cardinals 2-0 in game two of their Wild Card series and advance to take on the Braves in the NLDS. Bryce Harper homered in the second inning, and that would be all the team needed on the night. Aaron Nola pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings, walking one and striking out six.
The two big guns for the Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, were a combined 1 for 7 with a walk. In the bottom of the eighth inning they each came up with two men on. Both struck out.
It will be an all NL East match-up in the next round starting Tuesday.
The Mariners score on two doubles in the top of the ninth inning and beat the Blue Jays 10-9 to advance to the ALDS against the Astros. The American League is set for the second round.
The Blue Jays led the game 8-1 after scoring four runs in the bottom of the fifth inning. They immediately gave those four back in the top of the sixth, as Carlos Santana hit a three-run homer. Toronto did add a run in then seventh to lead 9-5 but the first four batters in that inning collected hits to score a run and load the bases. That led to the bloop and the bump that caused three runs to score and tie the contest at nine.
So we saw one of the longest, closest game in post-season history, and one of the biggest comebacks in post-season history. What’s next?
With the Blue Jays leading the Mariners 9-6 in the eighth inning, Seattle loads the bases with none out. Jordan Romano comes on to strike out Carlos Santana, who homered earlier in the game, and Dylan Moore. That brings up J.P. Crawford, who hits a pop up into shallow centerfield. Bo Bichette races back for it, George Spring races in for it, the ball drops, the two collide, and all three runners score to tie the game. Bichette seems to be okay, but Springer is being driven off the field, probably due to a concussion. The game is tied at nine.
Oscar Gonzalez of the Guardians homers leading off the bottom of the fifteenth inning, and the Indians sweep the Rays two games to none. Cleveland moves on to face the Yankees in the ALDS.
The game set a post-game record with 39 strikeouts and the two games produced just four runs.
Congrats to the Guardians on their first post-season series win with that name.
It took Toronto eleven innings, but they finally score as Alejandro Kirk doubles and Teoscar Hernandez homers to give the Blue Jays a 2-0 lead over the Mariners in game two of their Wild Card series.