Category Archives: Wild Card Round

October 8, 2022

Second Game

I just got back from an afternoon out, and didn’t miss much in the game between the Rays and the Guardians. Through the middle of the 10th, the teams accumulated five singles, five walks, and no runs. This is reminiscent of game seven of the 1991 World Series between the Braves and the Twins, won by Minnesota 1-0 in the bottom of the tenth. We’ll see if the Guardians can clinch here without the aid of the placed runner.

Update: The teams are in the fourth inning of the second game, and Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor of the Guardians combined to end the Rays inning in both the 12th and 13th. In both, Ramirez had to go to his right to field the ball and make a long throw to first. On both, Naylor had to stretch far and hold the bag to get the runner, and he did so perfectly. The game is still scoreless.

October 8, 2022

Playoffs Today

Once again, the Rays and Guardians kick off the day with a noon EDT start. Tyler Glasnow takes on Triston McKenzie. Glasnow spend most of the season on the disabled list recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made two starts at the end of the season totaling 6 2/3 innings. In that time he allowed four hits, one home run, and two walks while striking out ten. This may turn out to be mostly a bullpen game for the Rays, but bullpen games are their forte. McKenzie showed much better control in 2022, walking 14 fewer batters in 71 1/3 more innings. That helped him to a 2.96 ERA.

The Rays were the only road team to lose on Friday.

The 4 PM EDT game once again pits the Mariner against the Blue Jays, with Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman on the mound. Ray won the Cy Young Award for the Blue Jays in 2022, but his move to the Mariners did not hurt the Blue Jays playoff push. Ray saw his ERA rise 0.9 runs compared to 2021 as his walk rate rose and his strikeout rate declined. Gausman did not pitch well in Toronto this season, with 10 of the 15 home runs he allowed coming at the park formerly known as Skydome.

The Padres try to finish off the Mets at 7:30 PM EDT with Blake Snell taking on Jacob deGrom. Snell owns a 2.83 post-season ERA despite allowing six home runs and fourteen walks in 35 innings. He struck out 44, leading to just 24 hits allowed. deGrom came back strong from his injury, going 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA in August, but failed to show stamina as he posted a 1-3 record with a 4.50 ERA in September. In that final month, he allowed six home runs in 28 innings.

At 8:30 EDT, the Phillies send Aaron Nola against Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals. Nola pitched better than his 11-13 record, posting a 3.25 ERA in 205 innings. He ranked second in IP in the majors, one of eight pitchers to reach the 200 inning milestone. Mikolas ranked third with 202 1/3 innings. They are both low walk and low home run rate pitchers. Despite Nola striking out three and a half more batters per nine innings, Mikolas allowed just two more hits all season, 170 to 168. That may be the difference in the defense between the two teams.

Enjoy!

October 7, 2022

Max Power

Max Scherzer allows four home runs in 4 2/3 innings, and the Padres lead the Mets 7-0 as Scherzer exits. Scherzer allowed 13 home runs during the regular season. Four different Padres took Scherzer deep. The most HR Scherzer allows in a post-season game previous to this was two.

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish allowed just two hits through four innings, striking out three.

October 7, 2022

Battery Power

The $108 million contract extension the Mariner negotiated with Luis Castillo already paid off as Seattle wins their first playoff game since 2001, a 4-0 shutout in Toronto. Castillo lasted 7 1/3 innings, walking none and striking out five. He allowed six hits, five of them singles. He has now allowed 26 runs, 23 earned in 72 2/3 innings since joining the Mariners.

Cal Raleigh, a low average, high power catcher batted fourth and delivered a two-run homer in the first to extend the lead to 3-0. Raleigh collected 78 hits in 2022, 48 for extra bases.

Even with the win, however, the Blue Jays still hold the home field advantage.

October 7, 2022

Phillies Phinish Strong

Mr. Ed’s favorite team found themselves down 2-0 in the ninth inning, but the Phillies score six runs in the top of the inning and wind up beating the Cardinals 6-3. St. Louis brought in Ryan Helsleyin the eighth inning for a five out save. He retired the first batter in the ninth, then the next four batter reached base on a single, two walks, and a hit batter. Andre Pallante came on to allow a big hit by Jean Segura to give the Phillies the lead. Segura came into the day as the active player with the most regular season games played without a playoff appearance.

I continue to be amazed by the inability of many closers to be successful over multiple innings.

October 7, 2022

En Guardian

The Guardians get one more run out of their home run than the Rays, and Cleveland takes game one of the wild card series 2-1. Jose Siri, who slugged .339 in 2022, gave the Rays a 1-0 lead in the sixth with his home run. Jose Ramirez pleased the home town fans in the bottom of the inning with a two-run shot, and that’s all the scoring there would be. Ramirez’s post-season career is somewhat disappointing, but his two for four today was a great start at turning this around.

Shane Bieber recorded his first post-season win as he lasted 7 2/3 inning with three hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts.

October 7, 2022

Playoffs Today

The Rays send Shane McClanahan to the mound in Cleveland against Shane Bieber and the Guardians to kick off the 2022 post-season. The game is scheduled for noon EDT. McClanahan followed up his rookie season with 43 more innings and an ERA of 2.54, 89 points lower than his 2021 mark. Despite the higher inning total, he walked just one more batter and allowed four fewer hits. Bieber posted his best full season, coming very close to cutting his walk rate in half from last year. Base runners may be scarce in this game.

At 2 PM EDT, the Phillies visit the Cardinals with Zack Wheeler facing Jose Quintana. Since joining Philadelphia in 2020, Wheeler owns the tenth best ERA in the majors (minimum 300 IP). It’s an impressive list with three other of today’s starters in the top ten, including the aforementioned Shane Bieber at six. Wheeler is extremely stingy with walks and home runs. Quintana came over from the Pirates at the trade deadline. In twelve starts with St. Louis he posted a 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 innings allowing just one home run. He does not go deep in games, so expect to see the bullpen in fairly early.

The 4 PM game pits the Mariners against the Blue Jays, the Mariners making their first post-season appearance since their 116 win season in 2001. Luis Castillo takes on Alek Manoah. Castillo came over from the Reds at the trade deadline and produced a 3.17 ERAin 65 1/3 innings. He struck out 77 batters, limiting the opposition to 55 hits. Manoah is at the top of the ERA leaderboard above, with a 2.60 ERA in his first two MLB seasons. His three true-outcomes are good, but none are outstanding. He is really good at limiting hits. Balls in play against him do not find holes.

Finally, the Padres visit the Mets with Yu Darvish squaring off against Max Scherzer. At seasonal age 35, Darvish posted his second highest single season inning total with an ERA of 3.10. He limited hits and walks, holding batters to a .207/.256/.331 slash line. The home runs don’t hurt as much when there is no one on base. Scherzer comes in second on the three-year ERA leaderboard at 2.62. Injuries limited the seasonal age 37 pitcher to 145 1/3 innings, so his 2.29 ERA was not among the league qualifiers. Like Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer doesn’t pitch as much as he used to, but he’s great when he does.

Enjoy!

October 6, 2022

Quick Wild Card Preview, San Diego Padres at New York Mets

It’s the match-up from heaven for the land of the three-named people:

The Padres made big moves at the trade deadline, but only went 31-27, .539 from August second on, the tenth best record in the majors. The Padres overall winning percentage was .549, so they actually played a bit worse after gathering all that talent.

Offensively, the Mets finished third in the NL in runs per game at 4.77, the Padres eighth at 4.35 runs per game, very close to the league average. The Mets produced more hits, more triples, and more home runs, while the Padres poste a handful more doubles and more walks. Both teams posted low strikeout totals, so expect them to put the ball in play.

On the other hand, both pitching staffs record high number of strikeouts, so we will see if the bats or the arms prevail in that regard. The Mets did much better on the pitching and defense side as well, with their 3.74 runs allowed per game second in the NL, while the Padres were fifth at 4.07. New York pitchers proved better in all three-true outcomes. The two teams were close in home runs and walks allowed, but the Mets struck out 0.8 more batters per nine innings.

The Mets played well at home, 54-27, but the Padres proved to be a good road team, at 45-36 versus 44-37 at home.

There’s nothing to make me think the Padres have any advantage over the Mets. Their strengths and weaknesses are similar, but the Mets are always a little stronger. I give the Mets a 60% chance of winning this series.

October 6, 2022

Quick Wild Card Preview, Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

The second AL Wild Card series gets underway in Toronto at 4 PM EDT Friday as the Mariners visit the Blue Jays. Offensively, Toronto simply sports the better lineup. The Blue Jays finished second in the AL in runs per game at 4.78, while the Mariners finished eighth at 4.26. Note, however, that the teams were nearly even in home runs, the Blue Jays hitting 200, the Mariners 197. The Blue Jays led the AL in hits and were second in doubles, both far above what the Mariners produced. Seattle was second in walks, and a walk and home run isn’t a bad way to generate offense.

On the pitching and defense side, the Mariners have the edge in runs allowed per game, beating Toronto 3.85 to 4.19. The Blue Jays ranked second in preventing walks in the AL, so that’s a strength against a strength there. If the Jays pitchers can reduce the Mariners batters to an OBP closer to their .230 BA, the Blue Jays should win easily. Seattle pitching and defense is very good at reducing hits, however. That’s another strength on strength, so the Mariners might be able to pull Toronto’s batting average down closer to Seattle’s level, evening things out.

This is where the toss up comes in. When pitching staffs are good at keeping batters off base, the home runs matter a lot more. We might see 3-2, 2-1 scores in this series, where the team with two homers in the game wins.

My guess is that Seattle pitching can’t knock down Toronto enough, so I’ll give the Blue Jays a 53% chance of winning the series.

October 6, 2022

Quick Wild Card Preview, Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

The Phillies and the Cardinals get underway Friday at 2 PM EDT in St. Louis with the first NL Wild Card series. The two teams boast similar offenses. The Cardinals tied for third place in the NL with 4.77 runs per game, the Phillies finished fifth at 4.61 runs per game. The Cardinals did a better job of getting on base, the Phillies hit for more power. The Cardinals produced many more doubles than the Phillies, but Philadelphia accumulated more triples and home runs to slug two points higher than St. Louis. Both teams steal bases at a good clip. The teams are even except the Cardinals do a better job of getting on base.

On the pitching side, the Phillies allow 0.3 runs per game more than the Cardinals, 4.23 runs per game versus 3.93 runs per game. Cardinals pitchers struck out the fewest batters in the NL in 2022 and were also at the low end in walks allowed. It was easy to put the ball in play against St. Louis, but that did not result in an inordinate number of hits. St. Louis pitchers were about league average in that category. The defense helped out a great deal, as FanGraphs ranks them as the second best defense in the NL. The Phillies came in third worst. In terms of three-true outcomes, the Phillies are probably the better team, but the defense mitigated that advantage.

It’s tough for me to find an advantage for the Phillies. The Cardinals batter produced poorly since the start of September, but the team still managed to go 17-14. The Phillies did not exactly come on as gangbusters, 14-17 in the same period. My gut is that the teams are somewhat closer in ability than the numbers show, and it could be that a very short series can hide the Phillies deficits. I have to go with the Cardinals, however, and a 52% chance of winning the series.

October 6, 2022

Quick Wild Card Preview, Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

The Rays and Guardians open the Wild Card Round of the playoffs at noon on Friday, the Indians hosting all three potential games in the new post-season format.*

*The new format could be a windfall for team like Cleveland. They have the potential to play thirteen home game during the post-season if they keep winning and keep facing wild card teams in the later rounds.

The Guardians offer a more balanced team, ranking sixth in runs score in the AL at 4.31 per game and fifth in runs allowed per game at 3.91. The Rays pitching is great and defense is better, as they allowed 3.79 runs per game third in the AL. They only scored 4.11 runs per game, however, 11th in the league. When they go up against a team with strong pitching, like they are at a disadvantage. We saw this in the series against Houston. They Rays held them to 22 runs in six games, but only scored eleven runs for a 1-5 record. The Rays lack the power to pop the ball out of the park in low scoring games.

So do the Guardians, who hit a dozen fewer home runs than Tampa Bay. The young team did gel offensively down the stretch as they got on base at a .334 clip from the start of September on. Both teams have great bullpens, with opponents hitting .209/.284/.335 against Cleveland relievers and .228/.294/.376 against Tampa Bay relievers.

This should be a close, hard fought series. Cleveland won the regular season series 4-2, the Guardians out-scoring the Rays 22-18. I give the Guardians a 55% chance of winning the series, mostly due to home field advantage.

October 5, 2022

Rooting Interest

I like to see teams that have not won in a while win in the playoffs. So here is my rooting interest based on the last World Series win:

  1. Guardians/Indians, 1948
  2. San Diego Padres, Never won, first season 1969
  3. Seattle Mariners, Never won, first season 1977
  4. Tampa Bay Rays, Never won, first season 1998
  5. New York Mets, 1986
  6. Toronto Blue Jays, 1993
  7. Philadelphia Phillies, 2008
  8. New York Yankees, 2009
  9. St. Louis Cardinals, 2011
  10. Houston Astros, 2017 (but they cheated)
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers, 2020
  12. Atlanta Braves, 2021

The Rays at the Guardians is a tough one for me because I like both teams a great deal. They’re good organizations with lots of interesting players. The Padres against the Mets means another two team in big droughts face off, so many of the long time chamiponshipless teams could be gone early.

October 5, 2022 October 5, 2022

Playoffs Set

The NL teams are in place for the post season as the Padres beat the Giants 6-2 Tuesday night. Coupled with the Astros 10-0 win over Philadelphia, and the Braves 2-1 victory over Miami, the Mets take the top wild card slot and will host the Padres, while the Phillies head to St. Louis for a best of three against the NL Central Champion Cardinals.

MLB has the full bracket here. I assume there will be a contest. Three of the four series will be in the eastern time zone, one in the central. Times have not been announced, but I assume the New York games will get prime time. My guess it will be something like noon EDT in Toronto, 3 PM EDT in Cleveland, 7 PM EDT in New York, and 9 PM EDT in St. Louis.

October 7, 2021

ALDS Preview, Red Sox Versus Rays

The Red Sox visit the Rays Thursday to kick-off the outer seeds round of the ALDS. Here is a comparison of the offenses:

Offense (AL Ranks)Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Runs per Game5.12 (4th)5.29 (2nd)
Batting Average.261(3rd).242 (7th-T)
On Base Percentage.328 (4th).321 (6th)
Slugging Average.449 (2nd).428 (4th)
Home Runs219 (6th)222 (3rd-T)
Stolen Base Percentage66% (15th)68% (14th)
2021 ALDS Offense

Like the Brewers, the Rays runs per game rank is better than the combination of their average elements. Unlike the Brewers, the reason is clear. The Rays hit 113 of their 222 home runs with men on base, 49.1%. That was the highest percentage of home runs with men on base in the AL, and second in the majors to the Marlins. The Rays also averaged 1.7 runs per home run, also second in the majors to the Marlins. Boston hit 41.1% of their home runs with men on base, averaging 1.6 runs per home run. While the Red Sox offense is better on averages, the Rays make up the difference with great situational hitting.

Both teams proved that stealing bases well was not that important to generating a lot of runs.

Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.

Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks)Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Runs Allowed per Game4.62 (8th-T)4.02 (2nd)
Earned Run Average4.26 (7th)3.67 (1st)
Strikeouts per 9 IP9.7 (3rd)9.1 (6th-T)
Walks per 9 IP3.5 (11th)2.7 (1st)
Home Runs per 200 IP24.8 (1st) 25.3 (2nd)
Defensive Efficiency.659 (15th).706 (2nd)
2021 Pitching

Both teams show a strength that covering a weakness on the pitching side. The Rays are middle of the road in strikeouts and walk few batters. That means a lot of balls in play, and the Rays have a defense that turns those into outs. The Red Sox strikeout batters at a much better rate, which covers their inability to stop balls in play from turning into base runners. They also limit damage from their walks by keeping the ball in the park.

The Red Sox strikeouts should be an advantage in this series. The Rays batters led the AL in Ks, and they rank high in walks, so they don’t put the ball in play to take advantage of the Red Sox defense. Boston is pretty good at limiting home runs, so this could all work in Boston’s favor.

Still, the Rays score well and prevent runs well. I like them in this series with a 53% chance of winning.

Correction: The post originally had the Red Sox scoring 4.12 runs per game, when it should have been 5.12 runs per game. The rank was correct, however.

October 7, 2021

Taylor Made Win

Chris Taylor of the Dodgers comes to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with two out and Cody Bellinger on first. Bellinger steals second then Taylor launches a shot over the fence in leftfield, and the Dodgers break the 1-1 tie with a 3-1 win. The Dodgers are off to San Francisco to play in the NLDS in what is likely to be a classic series.

The game took well over four hours, maybe one of the lowest runs to minutes ratios ever.

October 6, 2021 October 6, 2021 October 6, 2021

So So Sosa

Cardinals shortstop Edmundo Sosa just made his third poor play of the game. In the first inning he let a hot shot from Mookie Betts go off his glove for a single. He then dropped a line drive by Trea Turner, but was able to get a force at second when he might have had a double play. Now in the third, he drops a soft but high line drive, again off the bat of Betts. It hasn’t cost the Cardinals yet as they still lead 1-0, but the Dodgers now have a big threat with two on and one out rather than one on with two out.

Update: Corey Seager walks to load the bases.

Update: Trea Turner breaks his bat and hits the ball over second base into Tommy Edman’s glove. Edman steps on second and turns the double play to end the threat. The Cardinals lead 1-0 at the end of three innings. The starters uncharacteristically have walked four and struck out just three.

October 6, 2021 October 6, 2021

NLDS Preview, Braves Versus Brewers

The Braves visit the Brewers Friday to kick-off the middle seeds round of the NLDS. Here is a comparison of the offenses:

Offense (NL Ranks)Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Runs per Game4.91 (3rd)4.56 (6th)
Batting Average.244 (5th-T).233 (14th-T)
On Base Percentage.319 (6th).317 (8th-T)
Slugging Average.435 (2nd).396 (11th)
Home Runs239 (2nd)194 (8th)
Stolen Base Percentage76% (8th)80% (2nd-T)
2021 NLDS Offense

How did the Brewers manage to finish sixth in runs scored per game when none of their major offensive indicators are above average? I don’t see any situational batting lines that might indicate why they exceeded their averages so much. They did hit better with runners in scoring position than overall, but not that much better. The Braves, in fact, led the majors with an .823 OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Brewers came in ninth in the NL at .759. They were good at taking an extra base, but the Braves were better. I have to believe that the Brewers run scoring rate is soft, and they are really not that good.

The Braves, on the other hand, finished third in the NL in scoring despite Ronald Acuna Jr playing just 82 games. Acuna was hitting .283/.394/.596 when he went down. The Braves were 41-41 when Acuna played, 47-32 without him. Jorge Soler did a nice job filling in, especially the power numbers.

Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.

Pitching and Defense (NL Ranks)Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Runs Allowed per Game4.07 (4th)3.85 (3rd)
Earned Run Average3.88 (4th)3.50 (3rd)
Strikeouts per 9 IP9.0 (7th)10.1 (1st)
Walks per 9 IP3.3 (6th)3.4 (7th-T)
Home Runs per 200 IP25.9 (6th) 23.4 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency.708 (3rd-T).708 (3rd-T)
2021 Pitching

These pitching staffs appear to be evenly matched, with the Brewers gaining their advantage due to their higher strikeout rate. With fewer balls in play, Brewers pitchers allowed the second lowest number of hits in the NL. That also helped them reduce home runs, a strength of the Braves. The defenses are even, so the Ks could be the factor if the Brewers win.

This is a tough one to call. Atlanta appears to be the better team, but not my much. The Brewers score runs much more often than they should. Is that an illusion or a talent? I am going with the Brewers at 51% to win the series, mostly on the home field advantage.

October 6, 2021

Playoffs Today

Two of the best pitchers in baseball square off in the NL Wild Card game as Adam Wainwright leads the Cardinals against the Dodgers and Max Scherzer. Wainwright first appeared in the post-season in 2006, and is one of ten pitchers to accumulate at least 100 innings in that time. Scherzer also belongs in that group, and is right behind Wainwright in ERA. Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw also make the list, but Kershaw won’t appear due to an injury.

In the post-season Scherzer is more effective than Wainwright at limiting hits, while Wainwright shows better control. Scherzer’s walk rate of 3.7 per 9 IP is well above his career regular season rate of 2.4 per 9 IP. It seems the better competition will wait him out. That difference leads to Scherzer’s post-season ERA being half a run higher than Wainwright’s. Scherzer was especially stingy with walks this season, his 1.81 BB per 9 IP leading the NL. The Cardinals were near the bottom of the NL in walks drawn, so don’t expect that weakness to show up tonight.

The two pitchers will need to deal with some of the best hitters currently in the game. The Baseball Musings Batter Rankings put Paul Goldschmidt, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Tyler O’Neill in the top six.

These are two of the hottest teams in baseball. From Sept. 3rd through Sept. 9th, the Dodgers played three games against the Giants followed by four against the Cardinals. Los Angels played them evenly, going 3-4. Since then, the Dodgers are 18-3, best in the majors, the Cardinals second at 19-4 (including a 17-game win streak), and the Giants, the next opponent for tonight’s winner, third at 17-5.

Enjoy!

October 5, 2021

Wild Red Sox

Giancarlo Stanton of the Yankees homers in the top of the ninth inning, but it’s too little too late as the Red Sox win the AL Wild Card 6-2. They will face the Tampa Bay Rays in Florida on Thursday.

The walks were the big difference in the game, Boston batters drawing seven and the Yankees batters drawing none. Credit goes to the Red Sox pitchers, as from what I saw, the Yankees batters were swinging at strikes. They didn’t do a lot of chasing outside the zone, they just couldn’t make too much solid contact as the Boston hurlers kept them off balance the entire game.

October 5, 2021

Oh Those Base on Balls

In the bottom of the seventh inning, the Red Sox draw three walks before Alex Verdugo singles with two out to drive in two of the those runners. Verdugo tries to take second, however, and is thrown out. The damage is done, and the Red Sox take a 6-1 lead over the Yankees into the eighth inning.

The Red Sox drew seven walks in the game, the Yankees zero.

October 5, 2021

Yankees on the Board

Anthony Rizzo of the Yankees homers with one out in the top of the sixth inning for the Yankees first run of the game. Boston leads in the Wild Card game 3-1. Aaron Judge then reaches on an infield hit, and Nathan Eovaldi leaves the game.

Update: Giancarlo Stanton doubles off the wall, but Aaron Judge gets thrown out at the plate. It wasn’t even close. I’ve seen this happen enough to start believing the Yankees have a poor third base coach.

Update: Joey Gallo pops out to end the inning, and a bad coaching call may have cost the Yankees a big inning. It makes one wonder how much of the Yankees poor base running this season was due to poor coaching.

Update: In the bottom of the inning, the Red Sox score a runner from first on a one-out double. Alex Verdugo doubles into the rightfield corner. There was indecision by the Red Sox third base coach, but Xander Bogaerts scores from first to make the lead 4-1 in favor of Boston.

October 5, 2021

Schwarber Connects

Kyle Schwarber of the Red Sox gets a hold of a pitch as he leads off the bottom of the third inning with a home run deep down the rightfield line. He hit a high pitch to give the Red Sox a 3-0 lead over the Yankees. That was the third hit of the game for the Red Sox off Gerrit Cole, all for extra bases.

Enrique Hernandez follows with an infield single.

Update: Cole walk Rafael Devers for the second time in the game, and Aaron Boone removes the pitcher. Once again, Cole does not have his good stuff.

October 5, 2021 October 5, 2021

Cubs at the Top

In the Tuesday night AL Wild Card game, two former Cubs are leading off. With DJ LeMahieu on the illjured list, the Yankees tap Anthony Rizzo as their first batter. It’s a lefty on lefty match-up. Rizzo always hit left-handers well, and especially well this season. Schwarber owns a .385 OBP from the lead-off slot this season, and he’ll be the designated hitter as J.D. Martinez is hurt.

Nice jobs by the managers to think outside the box on these choices.

Correction: Sorry, Eovaldi is a righty. I need to get more sleep.

October 5, 2021

Playoffs Today

Shades of 1978, the Yankees visit Boston for one game to determine which team continues their season. New York sends Gerrit Cole against Nathan Eovaldi. Cole finished sixth in the majors and second in the AL in pitching fWAR and is an excellent Cy Young Award Candidate. The pitcher who finished third the majors in fWAR and first in the AL is Nathan Eovaldi. I hear very little talk about Eovaldi winning the pitching award. Cole’s ERA is half a run lower, but Eovaldi did better at preventing walks and much better at preventing home runs. Note that Eovaldi does not finish in the top ten in the majors in rWAR. rWAR tends to be more results oriented (ERA > FIP).

Needless to say, this game is a match-up of two of the best pitchers in the league. The Red Sox hit Cole well the four times they faced him, posting a .279/.340/.512 slash line. Boston saved most of the on-base for the bases empty situations, and most of the power for when men were on base.

Eovaldi posted a 2-2 record against the Yankees, but in six starts. Seven of the 15 runs he allowed to New York came in his last contest against New York. Almost all the damage the Yankees did against him came with the bases empty.

The game is scheduled for an 8 PM EDT start on ESPN. Enjoy!

October 2, 2020

The Padres Nine

The Padres use nine pitchers to shutout the Cardinals 4-0 and advance to the NLDS against the Dodgers. In both leagues now, the brackets feature intradivision play, as division rivals face each other in each match-up.

Padres pitchers combine to walk three, strikeout eight, and allow just four hits. Everyone pitched well as Trevor Rosenthal caps the evening by striking out the side 1-2-3 on just 13 pitches to finish the game.

I really like the mix in the next series. Each one feature a team with a lot of recent success (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves) against a team with some struggles or little money (Rays, Athletics, Marlins, and Padres). Since I tend to root for the teams that have not won a World Championship in a very long time, the Padres will be at the top of my list.