The National League Wild Card Round gets underway on Wednesday. The Dodgers own the number one seed in the NL and host the Brewers. Los Angeles scored at the highest rate in the NL, 5.82 runs per game, and defended the best as well, allowing just 3.55 runs per game. That’s 0.40 runs lower than the nearest competitor. The Brewers offense generated just 4.12 runs per game, thirteenth in the NL. They pitched decently, allowing 4.40 runs per game, sixth lowest.
I don’t really see a path that the Brewers can take to defeat the Dodgers. Milwaukee batters led the NL in strikeouts, and lots of strikeouts means fewer hits. The Dodgers were excellent at limiting hits with relatively low K numbers. On top of that, Los Angeles is a great three-true outcome team. Their batters were top in the league in home runs, while their pitchers allowed the fewest. The Dodgers offense ranked high in drawing walks, and their pitchers allowed the fewest. Dodgers pitcher were middle of the league in strikeouts, but they struck out 46 more batters than their opponents.
The Brewers strength is their pitching, but that was hurt when their Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes suffered an injury. I will be very surprised if the Brewers win this series.
The Braves, with the number two seed, host the Reds. Atlanta scored 5.80 runs per game, second in the NL, and allowed 4.80 runs per game, seventh in the league. Cincinnati score 4.05 runs per game, fourteenth in the NL. They allowed 4.05 runs per game, fifth in the NL, so they played one game better than expected at 31-29.
The Braves scored one fewer run than the Dodgers. Atlanta posted a higher BA and OBP, but tied Los Angeles in slugging percentage. The Braves power comes from doubles rather than home runs. A big reason why they scored one fewer run might be that their batters struck out 102 times more than the Dodgers. That K rate might be something the Reds can exploit. On offense, the Reds strength lies in walks and home runs. The Braves staff can be wild, and the Reds will need to take advantage of every man they get on base, as hits other than homers have been scarce.
All that said, Atlanta’s offense can be overwhelming, and the Braves get the nod in this series.
The number three seed Cubs draw the Cinderella Marlins in a repeat of the 2003 NLCS. I am fairly sure no fans will be in the way of outfielders catching balls in this series.
The Cubs scored 4.42 runs per game, 10th in the NL and allowed 4.00 runs per game, third lowest in the NL. The Marlins scored 4.38 runs per game, 11th in the NL and allowed 5.07 runs per game 12th lowest in the NL. The Marlins beat their Pythagorean win percentage by five games. They lost big, going 6-13 in games decided by five runs or more.
Miami’s strength on offense actually comes on the base paths. They stole 51 bases and were caught just 14 times. Teams did not run against the Cubs, trying thirty three times and getting caught 11. The Cubs strength is drawing walks, and the Marlins pitcher readily issue them.
I would love to see the Marlins defy the odds and advance to the NLDS. I think the Cubs pitching is too good for this team, especially since Miami is not a home run threat.
The final series pits the number four seed Padres against the number five seed Cardinals. The Padres scored 5.42 runs per game, third in the NL. They allowed 4.02 runs per game, fourth in the NL. They Cardinals scored 4.14 runs per game, twelfth in the NL. They allowed 3.95 runs per game, second in the NL.
Note that the top three teams in runs per game made the playoffs, with the next best offense in the playoffs coming at 10. The top seven teams in runs allowed per game made the playoffs, with Miami the only team with pitching near the bottom.
The Padres are a nicely balanced team offensively, with few outstanding strengths nor weaknesses. Two things they do well are avoid strikeouts and double plays. The Cardinals, with a low strikeout rate and a middle of the road ground ball rate won’t raise those numbers much. The Cardinals offense is in some ways like the Padres offense, in that there is balance, but with fewer hits and a lot less power. The Padres pitchers do shutdown walks, so I suspect the Cardinals OBP in the series will be closer to their 2020 .234 BA than their .323 OBP. This looks like a good match-up for the Padres.
It strikes me that the AL series look a lot more competitive than the NL series.
