Category Archives: Strategy

October 16, 2024

Pulling Bibee

Bill James posted a poll on pulling Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee early in the 6-3 Yankees win:

I would say there is another reason here. Bibee didn’t have his good stuff. By removing him after 39 pitches, it’s likely that he can start game five in Cleveland. Alex Cobb will not pitch again due to injury, so the Guardians need a game five starter. The way things are going, that might be a very pivotal game, and now the Guardians can start Bibee. The pen has today off, and most relievers can pitch every other day. If the Guardians had delivered a bit more with men on base, it could have looked like a brilliant strategy.

September 24, 2024

Three Times Through

Over on X there a discussion of how the number of batters faced after two times through the order changed during the years.

Bill James would like to know if this really is a good strategy.

As this discussion was going on, Ryan Pepiot got him self in trouble in the fifth inning. A walk and a single put two men on base with one out, the Tigers batting order coming up for the third time in the game. The Tigers broadcast flashed a graphic that Pepiot’s OPS was in the 600s the first two times through the order, then in the 900s the third time though the order. Parker Meadows then battled him for a walk to load the bases, Kerry Carpenter popped out on the first pitch, then Wenceel Perez battled, fouling off a number of pitches before bouncing a line drive down the rightfield line into the stands for a two-run double.

On the other hand Tarik Skubal faced five batters the third time through the lineup, and put out all five. He left after seven innings due to his pitch count, 103 being the most he threw in a game this season.

The Tigers won the game 2-1, so the performance of the two pitchers in the third-time through situation was in fact the game.

The Tigers maintain a wild card slot for at least another day. The Rays chance of making the playoffs got a lot slimmer.

September 14, 2024

The Cole IBB

I have not seen Yankees Aaron Boone‘s explanation of the intentional walk (IBB) to Rafael Devers of the Red Sox. The two out pass led to three runs against Gerrit Cole in a game the Red Sox won 7-1. This tidbit I did find interesting:

Cole’s intentional walk was the pitcher’s first since he was with Pittsburgh and put on Milwaukee’s Travis Shaw with runners on second and third in the third inning of a 2-2 game on Sept. 12, 2017.

Chron.com

On reason Cole hasn’t issued any walks is that since 2018 he played for he two teams least likely to issue an intentional walk. The Astros put 37 men on intentionally in the last seven seasons, the Yankees 59, including today. The next nearest team is Detroit with 84, and I’m pretty sure former Astros manager A.J. Hinch has something to do with that. With more former Astros in Baltimore, they are fourth with 87. Then it’s a more normal progression from the Twins at 101.

That makes the IBB all the more improbable, since the Yankees seem to follow the Astros doctrine of not issuing IBBs. The story gives some reasons why the Yankees did this, but none of them seems that strong.

August 15, 2024

Opening Walks

It looked like the Tigers opener strategy backfired today when when Alex Faedo didn’t allow a hit, gave the Mariners a run on four walks. Kenta Maeda came in as the reliever-starter, pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings while Bryce Miller of the Mariners pitched seven scoreless innings to keep the game 1-0. The Mariners bullpen, however, gave up a two-run homer to Javier Baez, and Detroit wins the game 2-1. Seattle lost three in a row to fall three games behind the streaking Astro who have the day off. The Tigers won four in a row as they try to finish the season above .500.

August 9, 2024

Power at the Top

Colton Cowser hit a lead off home run for the Orioles Friday night against the Rays. That’s a home run by the first batter for a team in a game. It’s the 112th lead-off home run of the season in the majors, That ranks 12th since 1974, with about 45 games left to play.

If you sort by season, you can see when the shift to power hitters at the top of the order happened:

SeasonLeadoff Home Runs
2024111
2023166
2022151
2021185
202068
2019193
2018150
2017159
2016156
2015111
201488
201392
2012114
201197
201069
200998
2008103
2007116
2006119
200593
2004116
200388
200294
200186
200093
1999100
199876
199765
199689
199576
199452
199365
199259
199158
199057
198955
198861
198799
198685
198557
198444
198354
198248
198122
198042
197957
197848
197737
197639
197544
197434
Home runs, First Inning, First Batter, Thru Aug. 8, 2024

There were fits and starts from 2004 through 2015, but the homers starting games leaped to the next level in 2016 and stayed there. The top five in leadoff home runs since the start of the 2016 season are George Springer, Mookie Betts, Kyle Schwarber, Jose Altuve, and Ronald Acuna. I suspect only Altuve would have batted leadoff before 2000.

Update: Ian Happ leads off for the Cubs against the White Sox with a HR, number 113 on the season.

Update: George Springer also went deep in the first inning, bringing the total to 114. That ties 2012.

August 7, 2024

Walk Man

With two out in the bottom of the eighth inning, none on, in game one of the doubleheader between the Angels and the Yankess, LAnaheim manager Ron Washing issued an intentional walk to Aaron Judge. Here’s the data since 1974 on what base situations lead to an intentional walk:

Base SituationIntentional Walks
000140
001134
01027655
011233
1007818
1011587
11020893
1113
1974 through August 6, 2024

The base situation corresponds to the three bases from the catcher’s perspective, with third base on the left and first base on the right. A one indicates the base was occupied.

So the IBB with the bases empty is on par with a man on first, but Judge’s recent collection of bases empty walks brought that situation a little farther ahead.

June 17, 2024

Stealing Sunday Night

The Yankees and Red Sox played a fascinating game Sunday night, the Red Sox setting a franchise record by stealing nine bases in the 9-3 win. The high number of steals led to a discussion about the Yankees having a problem stopping the opposition from running.

From the Red Sox point of view, they were exploiting a weakness, and literally getting the team fired up. They enjoyed the running, and as a team building move I suspect it worked great. It also enhance an offense that had a big night at the plate in terms of getting men on base, but only produced one extra-base hit. Those steals turned walks and singles into doubles and triples. (The Red Sox collected 14 hits, six walks, and a hit by pitch. They should have scored a lot of runs with no steals.)

From the Yankees point of view, I don’t believe they have a problem because they did not try to stop the running game. A number of great pitchers (Jim Palmer comes to mind, but I think Greg Maddux falls into his category) didn’t care of runners stole. As a pitcher, their concentration was on the batter. If the pitcher could get the batter out, the runner was unlikely to score. Marcus Stroman pitched very well with runners in scoring position coming into the the game, allowing a .130 BA and the Red Sox went two for seven in that situation against him last night, and six for fifteen in the game.

For the Yankees, the failure did not come from allowing base runners to advance, but from preventing the hits that would drive them in.

June 13, 2024

Squeezing the Rays

The Cubs just executed consecutive squeeze plays to take a 2-0 lead on the Rays in the top of the fifth inning. Those followed a sacrifice to put runners on second and third.

To be fair the first squeeze technically didn’t work, as the run scored on a an error by the catcher, who dropped the throw. Still, the unexpected bunt cause enough confusion to lead to the poor toss and the drop.

May 5, 2024

Pirates Order

The Pirates beat the Rockies 5-3 Sunday afternoon. In first looking at the Pittsburgh batting order, the lack of power stood out to me. On second glance, however, the management does a good job by simply order the batters by decreasing OBP one through eight, then putting a decent OBP in the ninth slot to give Connor Joe and Bryan Reynolds someone to drive in. This worked today as Joe and Reynolds reached base three times and scored twice, while the heart of the order generated three extra base hits and four RBI.

The Pirates offense isn’t very good, but the batting order at least allows them to make the most out of their best hitters.

May 1, 2024

Longer Saves

Alex Lange picked up a four-out save for the Tigers in their 4-1 win over the Cardinals. That’s the 33rd long save of the season, a long save being one in which the pitcher records four outs or more. The total long saves for the seasons 2021, 2022, and 2023 were 143, 150, and 151 respectively. So far, MLB is on a pace far surpass those seasons.

It turns out in 2019, there were 195 long saves, the most since there were 2013 in bth 2003 and 2024. So long saves were making a comeback before the pandemic hit. We’ll see if 2024 returns to that level.

April 3, 2024

This Time it Worked

Up one run, Aaron Boone, they Yankees manager, issued a two-out intentional walk with men on first and second to get to Arizona pitcher, who had to bat due to the Diamondbacks losing their designated hitter. Scott McGough then stuck out to end the game, the Yankees winning 6-5.

This reminds me of one of my most famous Strat-o-Matic games.* We were playing with 1979 cards in our dorm league, and I was pitted against one of my roommates. We were in extra innings, and with two out, my number six hitter Bill Madlock doubled. My opponent then walked Thurman Munson and Rick Burleson to load the bases, because I could not pinch hit for the pitcher (no DH league) because I had used up my bench. Dave Frost came to the plate, as bad a hitter as a pitcher could be in the game. He faced Joaquin Andujar. The dice roll wound up on Andujar’s card, a 4-9. It turned out to be a walk. The Pinto Hatchbacks were now in the lead.

I started jumping up and down, yelling, “He walked! He walked!” when suddenly the card table came flying across the room at me, and my fuming roommate uttered his now famous phrase, “I hate happy people!”*

Boone is obviously a much better manager.

Andujar was forever called “I Joaquin Runs.”

*Famous among a very small number of people.

March 28, 2024

Rendon at the Top

I notice Anthony Rendon leads off for the Angels on opening day. I like this move. Rendon’s power dissipated with his injuries, but his ability to get on base remained good. Putting him in the lead-off slot allows him to concentrate on getting on base. If his power returns, the Angels can always move him down in the lineup.

The Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) had Rendon batting ninth as a secondary lead-off man. The Angels were not going to bat someone making that much money ninth, so this is a good tradeoff.

February 21, 2024

Astros Flexibility

The Astros want to play Yordan Alvarez in the outfield more to give other players a chance to rest a bit as the designated hitter:

Chas McCormick could be the DH when Houston deploys an Alvarez-Jake MeyersKyle Tucker outfield. Espada said Tuesday he expects Jose Abreu to be slotted in at designated hitter on occasion, and I suspect Jose Altuve could get a smattering of DH reps (both to keep his body rested and to get additional at-bats for Mauricio Dubón).

Chron.com

Abreu and Altuve are well into their 30s and McCormick is one of the older youngsters. Alex Bregman players 2024 as a 30 year old, and he could probably use a day off the infield now and then.

The team could also minimize the defensive impact of Alvarez on the field by playing him on days with either high strikeout or high ground ball pitchers on the mound.

In addition, while the sample size is not great, Alvarez in his career hit much better when he is playing in the field.

November 8, 2023

Party Like It’s 1982

Hal Steinbrenner brings up bunting as an example of how the Yankees will change their minor league development:

In a bizarre moment during his Zoom press conference with reporters on Tuesday, while he was being pressed for specifics on substantial changes the Yankees might make, Hal Steinbrenner finally offered an example.

“So one thing that was discussed in August is bunting — I think Aaron Boone thinks that we’re not teaching the young players to bunt enough,” Steinbrenner said.

Steinbrenner went on to say that, yes, in line with where the game was heading a few years ago, the Yankees “cut back on the bunting skills” in the minor leagues.

“But Aaron Boone feels it’s becoming a bigger part of the game again,” Steinbrenner said. “He feels it’s important. So we’re gonna start right up again at the player development level, with everything we were doing a few years ago.”

NYPost.com

Brian Cashman walked back those comments a bit. Teaching bunting is also very different from using bunting. I can’t help but remember the signing of Dave Collins before the 1982 season as George Steinbrenner decided the Yankees needed to be a speed team:

In planning this year’s strategy, Steinbrenner emphasized that the Yankees would become a team of speed. He did such a good job of emphasizing that, he gave credence to the contention that the Yankees lack the power they will need to fight off such challengers as Milwaukee, Baltimore and Detroit.

NYTimes.com

The Yankees finished fifth, four game under .500, behind all three of those teams.

It’s also not clear what bunting means in this scenario. Bunting has two uses; advancing runners to increase the chance of scoring a run, or taking advantage of the defense to reach base. Mickey Mantle would bunt for the latter reason. His occasional bunts kept the defense honest; they couldn’t play farther back to take away hits.

Of course, the previous decade showed that most players and organizations didn’t think bunting against the shift was a better strategy than going for the home run.

Most people think of bunting in the first sense, however, advancing runners. This used to be an early game strategy. In low scoring eras, getting that first run on the board was important, so having a number two hitter who bunted well worked. In high run eras like today, the sacrifice is a late inning strategy for close games, where one run might mean a win.

Finally, why do MLB organizations need to teach bunting? It’s catching the ball with the bat. This is something that should be learned at a young age, then a few bunts in batting practice to keep the skill honed. Learning to drag a bunt for a hit might take more skill, but I remember a piece ESPN did on Brett Butler in the 1990s where he said he could teach anyone to bunt like he did. Speed leading to infield hits were a bit reason for his .377 career OBP.

There are players who might benefit from learning to bunt well. There are players for whom it doesn’t matter. Concentrating on the former likely makes the most sense for any organization.

October 31, 2023

Bochy Mistake?

With a six run led and two men on base and two out in the bottom of the ninth, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy goes to his closer, Jose Leclerc. He comes in and gives up a two-run single to Gabriel Moreno to close the gap to 11-7. He gets the next batter to pop up, but Arizona gets another look at the closer, and now they can get a hit off him.

It was nice to see both teams play like this game wasn’t decided. The Diamondbacks didn’t give up or give in, and came a long way back.

Unfortunately, they did lose the game to go down three games to one in the World Series. Texas gets three chances to bring home their first MLB Championship.

October 30, 2023

Cat and Mouse

The Diamondbacks send a lefty to the plate to force the Rangers to go to Aroldis Chapman in relief. Once Chapman comes in, Emmanuel Rivera pinch hits and doubles deep down the rightfield line. The Diamond win that battle, and then Geraldo Perdomo comes through with a single to put the Diamondbacks on the board. Texas now leads 3-1.

Update: Chapman strikes out Corbin Carroll for the first out.

Update: Ketel Marte hits the first pitch to short, where Corey Seager makes a nice play to start a GDP and end the inning. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead into the ninth.

October 23, 2023

Thompson in Relief

Ryan Thompson comes on in relief of Merrill Kelly. Kelly allowed three hits, three walks, and one run in five innings. He struck out eight. Kelly was not happy at the end of the fifth inning when he was told he was done.

Thompson gets the first out in the bottom of the sixth, but then gives up a hit to Bryson Stott of the Phillies. Arizona leads 4-1.

Update: Thompson get the final two batters on air outs and the the 4-1 lead remains intact.

October 8, 2023

Why go to Third?

The Orioles had a runner Jorge Mateo, on second with one out and one run scored in the bottom of the fourth inning. The Rangers led 9-3. Adley Rutschman hits a ball to shortstop and Mateo tries to advance to third. It looks like a bad play, but Corey Seager at SS for the Rangers bobbles the ball. Mateo is safe, and Rutschman is safe.

In the Hidden Game of Baseball, Palmer and Thorn thought the runner should always try for third on the play, because if the play above happens, it’s a huge win for the offense. I wish announcers would stop calling it a bad play.

Mateo scores on a sacrifice fly, and Baltimore cuts the lead to 9-4 after four innings.

September 13, 2023

Strategy Argument

Coach Brent Strom and GM Mike Fitzgerald of the Diamondbacks take exception to the Mets broadcasters criticizing a late-game, defensive strategy. The Diamondbacks did not hold Tim Locastro in the ninth, and he stole a base:

Fitzgerald also pushed back on what he thought were questionable numbers put forth on the broadcast on Tuesday night. Cohen argued that the Diamondbacks improved the Mets’ chances of winning by “200 percent” because Nimmo gets a hit 26 percent of the time compared to getting an extra-base hit at only a nine-percent clip.

Fitzgerald said historical data suggests the Diamondbacks’ win probability only went down from 81 percent to 79 percent by allowing Locastro to take second, which he thought was worth the tradeoff of being able to better defend against Nimmo, who eventually flew out to center to end the game.

Strom said he felt the same way, saying the Diamondbacks were better off going into their “prevent defense.”

AZCentral.com

I like that the Diamondbacks showed they knew the probabilities before they made the decision. A big part of that was that they thought there was no chance of throwing out Locastro given the pitcher and catcher at the moment. There have been pitchers who never cared about the stolen base, as they knew if they got the batter, the SB would not matter. This was the managerial equivalent.

August 10, 2023

The Corbin Trade

Patrick Corbin of the Nationals appeared to pitch five strong innings against the Phillies, as he allowed one hit and one unearned run. A closer look at the box, however, showed that he walked seven batters, many on full counts. It’s possible that Corbin came up with the idea to walk the tough hitters to prevent hits. He walked Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto twice, Alec Bohm, Weston Wilson, and Bryce Harper once .

The Phillies lead 2-1 as Trea Turner homered right after Corbin was removed.

May 3, 2023 May 3, 2023

Manufacturing a .400 Hitter

I noticed last night that the Marlins manager Skip Schumaker pinch hit for Luis Arraez. Arraez posted a one for three at that point. There were two outs in the bottom of the ninth, no one on base, and the Braves leading 6-0. Joe Jimenez pitched for the Braves.

Pinch-hitting for the best hitter on your team seems like giving up on the game at that point. I can think of three legitimate reasons to pinch hit for Arraez at that point:

  1. He was facing a tough left-hander.
  2. Arraez had a poor history against Jimenez.
  3. Arraez suffered an injury.

Jimenez throws right handed and Arraez is three for five against him in his career. Arraez has had a couple of minor injuries this season, but he’s back in the lineup tonight.

I think the Marlins are trying to manufacture a .400 hitter, or at least a batting champion. This will bring a lot of attention to the team. Look to see if Arraez keeps coming out early in games where he already has hits.

April 9, 2023

Paradigm Shift

In the late 1980s, STATS, Inc. started collecting pitch by pitch data, which included pick-off attempts. They discovered that one pick-off attempt was enough to deter the running game. Runners stayed a bit closer to the bag if the pitcher showed they were paying attention. Subsequent throws did not reduce steals any further.

Tom Tango shows today that the pick-off limit turns that on it’s head:

Once a pickoff attempt happens, things change radically.  Players at 26-26.99 ft/s jump up to +0.7 net SB per 100.  This puts them squarely at the equivalent of 29 ft/sec with no prior pickoff attempts.  In other words, it’s like adding 2.5 ft/s of speed, simply by having a prior pickoff attempt.

And it gets worse.  Players at a speed of 27-28.99 ft/s have a net SB of +2.9 per 100 pitches (with 1 prior pickoff attempt).  That is similar to the speedsters of 30+ ft/sec with no pickoff attempts.  Again, it’s like adding 2 or 2.5 ft/s of speed.  That’s what the prior pickoff attempt does.

TangoTiger.net

Of course, there is no increase in speed, there is an increase in the runners lead since the next pickoff throw puts the pitcher at a disadvantage.

In the first situation, there was almost never a good reason to make the second pick-off throw. In the current situation, there is almost no reason to make the first pick-off throw. In each case, you had to make the superfluous throw to keep the runner guessing.

Now that this is in the hands of managers, I believe the correct strategy is for catchers to make the second pick-off throw. With a bigger lead, snaps throws should catch more runners leaning.

April 9, 2023

Catching Note

National treasure David Laurila posts his weekly notes column at FanGraphs. There’s a very interesting section on catchers setting a target down the middle of the plate:

The idea of having a catcher set up down the middle has gained a certain amount of traction. The reasoning is twofold. More strikes will be thrown — long a recipe for success — and the movement, often paired with plus velocity, will be enough to limit solid contact. Given the power arsenals that many pitchers now possess, it makes sense that aggressively attacking the strike zone makes more sense than attempting to dot corners.

FanGraphs.com

Tucker Barnhart appraises the strategy, and thinks it works best with young relievers.

“There’s not necessarily one guy that comes to mind, but I think a lot of younger guys get to the big leagues and think that they have to pitch on the edges to have success. Quite frankly, that’s not the case. A lot more times than not, it puts them in situations where they get in trouble. That’s why it’s super important for guys to come up and dominate the strike zone. Hitting is hard. When you’re behind in the count, as a hitter, it’s exponentially harder. The one way to make hitting easier is to fall behind.”

It’s something to keep in mind this season as you watch games.

April 1, 2023

Ban Analytics!

I find their lack of faith disturbing.

Teams always used analytics, and some teams always used them better than others. You can convince me that analytics might make the game more boring, but they also give clubs a chance to find inefficiencies to exploit.

MLB did the right thing in reacting to the things that analytics did to make the game worse. It’s not going to end, however. Rather than complaining about it, MLB and the owners will need to continue to adjust the games as analytics pulls the game in the boring direction.

I also hope the tweet was April 1 joke.

March 30, 2023 March 21, 2023

Just My Imanaga-nation

Japan started left-hander Shota Imanaga against a US team with four great power hitters at the top of the lineup. Imanaga gave up a bloop double to Mike Trout, but retired the other three batters easily.

The broadcast noted that Imanaga pitches better against right-handers than lefties. Kudos to manager Hideki Kuriyama for taking advantage of this trait.

When I worked at ESPN, I noticed Tom Glavine owned this type of split. On separate occasions, I asked both Ray Knight and Greg Olson about this (Olson caught Glavine). Both gave the same response, that Glavine threw a dead fish that moved away from right-handers. I then asked each why opposing managers didn’t start more left-handed batters against these pitchers. Again, their responses were the same. The managers did not want to get pilloried in the press by going with a reverse platoon lineup. It looks like the US was not willing to put more lefties at the top of the order against Imanaga, either.

Update: Right hander Trea Turner takes Imanaga deep for a 1-0 US lead in the second inning. In the words of Emily Litella, never mind.

February 23, 2023

Bearing Down

Cy Morong looks at strikeout rates with men on third and less than two out versus the overall strikeout rate. The AL is here, the NL is here. Note that when strikeout rates were low, there was not much of a difference. As strikeouts became more ubiquitous batters started working harder to put the ball in play. The ratio between the two measures shows a slow but steady drop over the last 30 years.

January 2, 2023

Bunting Confirmation

Jim Albert looks to improve the runs expectancy table.

This table provides the foundation for the development of many measures of performance such as wOBA. However, it always has seemed a bit unsatisfying to me since it provides an incomplete view of run scoring potential. For example, when there is a single out and runners on 2nd and 3rd, we see from the table that teams will score an average of 1.42 runs. But this is only an average and does not directly inform us on the probability of not scoring or the probability of scoring 2 or 3 runs. It seems better to describe runs potential in a way that would say more about the future distribution of runs scored than just the mean.

BaseballWithR.wordpress.com

Albert produces the runs expectancy table for 2022, but also shows the runs advantage table for the same year, based on the probabilities of score a certain integer number of runs compared to a given starting state (in this case, bases empty, none out).

When evaluating strategy, it seems that the sacrifice bunt would be more advantageous in the situation with men on first and second and none out than with a man on first and none out, as a team should be more likely to score two runs. The runs expectancy table, however, shows a team is likely to score 1.55 runs in the 120-0 (occupied-outs) situation, 1.42 runs in 023-1 situation. So a successful sacrifice bunt lowers the expected number of runs score in an inning.

The runs advantage table tells a different story, however. The advantage over the start start in the 120-0 situation is 1.58 comparted to 1.64 in the 023-1 situation. I interpret this as on average a team scores fewer runs (fewer big innings), but scores some runs more often. In other words, it’s a two-run strategy!

This does not hold for the 100-0 situation versus the 020-1 situation. In that case advantage drop from 0.75 to 0.55.

December 8, 2022

Stealing After Pickoff Attempts

Tom Tango notes the new rule that credits a balk on a failed third pick-off attempt makes the first and third situation a lot more interesting. With two out, it’s worth it to get picked off 60% of the time!

 Just like with a regular balk, any awarded balk will move ALL baserunners.  Take the situation of runners on 1B and 3B, 2 outs.  That has a run expectancy of 0.478.  Pickoff the runner, and that goes down to 0.  Allow a one-play-two-Stolen-Balks violation, and that’s one run in the bank and .319 on the bases, or 1.319.  That’s a huge increase of 0.841 runs.  With such a paltry cost of .478 runs, the breakeven point drops all the way down to 36%.  In other words, the 36% of the time you get the violation, you get .36 x .841 = .30 runs.  The 64% of the time you get picked off, you lose .64 x .478 = -.30 runs.  So if you can get picked off less than 60% of the time, that is still a net win for the offense.

TangoTiger.com

Since players are likely to take longer leads after two pickoff attempts, that should lead to more players going first to third on singles and first to home on doubles. We should be on the lookout for more extra bases taken by runners.