Category Archives: Fantasy Baseball

September 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.305 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.288 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
0.265 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Severino.
0.261 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
0.254 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tylor Megill.
0.251 — Michael Harris II batting against Tylor Megill.
0.246 — Gio Urshela batting against Luis Severino.
0.244 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
0.241 — Austin Riley batting against Luis Severino.
0.240 — Starling Marte batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.238 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luis Severino.
0.237 — Francisco Lindor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.236 — Gio Urshela batting against Tylor Megill.
0.235 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
0.234 — Mark Vientos batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.232 — Austin Riley batting against Tylor Megill.
0.229 — Ramon Laureano batting against Luis Severino.
0.229 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.228 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tylor Megill.
0.227 — David Fletcher batting against Luis Severino.
0.226 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Luis Severino.
0.225 — Starling Marte batting against Chris Sale.
0.224 — Jeff McNeil batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.224 — Matt Olson batting against Luis Severino.
0.223 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.223 — Eli White batting against Luis Severino.
0.222 — Francisco Lindor batting against Chris Sale.
0.221 — J.P. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.220 — Ramon Laureano batting against Tylor Megill.
0.219 — Mark Vientos batting against Chris Sale.
0.218 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Luis Severino.
0.218 — David Fletcher batting against Tylor Megill.
0.217 — Harrison Bader batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.217 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Tylor Megill.
0.215 — Matt Olson batting against Tylor Megill.
0.215 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Chris Sale.
0.214 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luis Severino.
0.214 — Joey Wendle batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.213 — Eli White batting against Tylor Megill.
0.213 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Luis Severino.
0.213 — J.D. Martinez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.213 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
0.212 — Luis Torrens batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.212 — J.P. Martinez batting against Tylor Megill.
0.211 — Jorge Soler batting against Luis Severino.
0.211 — Pablo Reyes batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.210 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Sale.
0.210 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Tylor Megill.
0.209 — Luke Williams batting against Luis Severino.
0.209 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Chris Sale.
0.209 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Luis Severino.
0.208 — Brian Anderson batting against Luis Severino.
0.208 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.206 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tylor Megill.
0.206 — Pete Alonso batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.205 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.205 — Jesse Winker batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.205 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Tylor Megill.
0.205 — Orlando Arcia batting against Tylor Megill.
0.203 — Harrison Bader batting against Chris Sale.
0.202 — Jorge Soler batting against Tylor Megill.
0.201 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.201 — Luke Williams batting against Tylor Megill.
0.200 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Tylor Megill.
0.200 — Joey Wendle batting against Chris Sale.
0.200 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Sale.
0.199 — Brett Baty batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.199 — Brian Anderson batting against Tylor Megill.
0.199 — Luis Torrens batting against Chris Sale.
0.197 — Pablo Reyes batting against Chris Sale.
0.194 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
0.193 — Pete Alonso batting against Chris Sale.
0.192 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
0.192 — Jesse Winker batting against Chris Sale.
0.190 — Sean Murphy batting against Luis Severino.
0.188 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Chris Sale.
0.186 — Brett Baty batting against Chris Sale.
0.186 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Severino.
0.184 — Omar Narvaez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.183 — Adam Duvall batting against Luis Severino.
0.182 — Sean Murphy batting against Tylor Megill.
0.179 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tylor Megill.
0.176 — Cavan Biggio batting against Luis Severino.
0.176 — Zack Short batting against Luis Severino.
0.175 — Adam Duvall batting against Tylor Megill.
0.172 — Omar Narvaez batting against Chris Sale.
0.169 — Cavan Biggio batting against Tylor Megill.
0.168 — Zack Short batting against Tylor Megill.
0.164 — D.J. Stewart batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.153 — D.J. Stewart batting against Chris Sale.

The list is short enough that I just gave you everyone. There are people listed not on the roster, but you’ll figure that out. 🙂

The NN produced this list of batters and their probability of collecting a hit:

0.305, 0.747 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.288, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
0.261, 0.678 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
0.265, 0.677 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Severino.
0.251, 0.674 — Michael Harris II batting against Tylor Megill.
0.254, 0.672 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tylor Megill.
0.244, 0.660 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
0.235, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
0.246, 0.654 — Gio Urshela batting against Luis Severino.
0.236, 0.649 — Gio Urshela batting against Tylor Megill.
0.240, 0.645 — Starling Marte batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.241, 0.644 — Austin Riley batting against Luis Severino.
0.232, 0.639 — Austin Riley batting against Tylor Megill.
0.238, 0.638 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luis Severino.
0.237, 0.637 — Francisco Lindor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.225, 0.634 — Starling Marte batting against Chris Sale.
0.228, 0.633 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tylor Megill.
0.234, 0.630 — Mark Vientos batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.222, 0.626 — Francisco Lindor batting against Chris Sale.
0.224, 0.625 — Jeff McNeil batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.229, 0.621 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.219, 0.619 — Mark Vientos batting against Chris Sale.
0.227, 0.618 — David Fletcher batting against Luis Severino.
0.210, 0.614 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Sale.
0.223, 0.613 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.218, 0.613 — David Fletcher batting against Tylor Megill.
0.229, 0.612 — Ramon Laureano batting against Luis Severino.
0.226, 0.612 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Luis Severino.
0.224, 0.612 — Matt Olson batting against Luis Severino.
0.215, 0.609 — Luisangel Acuna batting against Chris Sale.
0.220, 0.608 — Ramon Laureano batting against Tylor Megill.
0.217, 0.607 — Chadwick Tromp batting against Tylor Megill.
0.215, 0.607 — Matt Olson batting against Tylor Megill.
0.221, 0.604 — J.P. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.217, 0.604 — Harrison Bader batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.223, 0.604 — Eli White batting against Luis Severino.
0.213, 0.603 — J.D. Martinez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.214, 0.603 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luis Severino.
0.218, 0.602 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Luis Severino.
0.209, 0.602 — Tyrone Taylor batting against Chris Sale.
0.212, 0.599 — J.P. Martinez batting against Tylor Megill.
0.213, 0.599 — Eli White batting against Tylor Megill.
0.211, 0.598 — Pablo Reyes batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.206, 0.598 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tylor Megill.
0.210, 0.598 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Tylor Megill.
0.214, 0.596 — Joey Wendle batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.213, 0.595 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
0.212, 0.595 — Luis Torrens batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.203, 0.592 — Harrison Bader batting against Chris Sale.
0.200, 0.592 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Sale.
0.205, 0.591 — Orlando Arcia batting against Tylor Megill.
0.213, 0.590 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Luis Severino.
0.211, 0.587 — Jorge Soler batting against Luis Severino.
0.197, 0.587 — Pablo Reyes batting against Chris Sale.
0.209, 0.587 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Luis Severino.
0.208, 0.586 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.205, 0.586 — Jarred Kelenic batting against Tylor Megill.
0.200, 0.585 — Joey Wendle batting against Chris Sale.
0.199, 0.583 — Luis Torrens batting against Chris Sale.
0.209, 0.583 — Luke Williams batting against Luis Severino.
0.202, 0.582 — Jorge Soler batting against Tylor Megill.
0.200, 0.582 — Ignacio Alvarez batting against Tylor Megill.
0.206, 0.581 — Pete Alonso batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.201, 0.581 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.201, 0.578 — Luke Williams batting against Tylor Megill.
0.205, 0.577 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.208, 0.575 — Brian Anderson batting against Luis Severino.
0.205, 0.575 — Jesse Winker batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.194, 0.574 — Eddy Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
0.199, 0.571 — Brian Anderson batting against Tylor Megill.
0.193, 0.570 — Pete Alonso batting against Chris Sale.
0.188, 0.570 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Chris Sale.
0.199, 0.567 — Brett Baty batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.192, 0.565 — Francisco Alvarez batting against Chris Sale.
0.192, 0.564 — Jesse Winker batting against Chris Sale.
0.190, 0.557 — Sean Murphy batting against Luis Severino.
0.186, 0.555 — Brett Baty batting against Chris Sale.
0.186, 0.553 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Severino.
0.182, 0.552 — Sean Murphy batting against Tylor Megill.
0.179, 0.548 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tylor Megill.
0.183, 0.542 — Adam Duvall batting against Luis Severino.
0.184, 0.538 — Omar Narvaez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.175, 0.537 — Adam Duvall batting against Tylor Megill.
0.176, 0.528 — Cavan Biggio batting against Luis Severino.
0.172, 0.526 — Omar Narvaez batting against Chris Sale.
0.176, 0.525 — Zack Short batting against Luis Severino.
0.169, 0.523 — Cavan Biggio batting against Tylor Megill.
0.168, 0.520 — Zack Short batting against Tylor Megill.
0.164, 0.517 — D.J. Stewart batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.153, 0.506 — D.J. Stewart batting against Chris Sale.

Pick Iglesias in game one, although at the moment, Beat the Streak is not allowing a selection. Looks like it’s waiting for the lineups.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Pick

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.335 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.321 — Jose Iglesias batting against Colin Rea.
0.304 — Jackson Merrill batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.297 — Yandy Diaz batting against Quinn Priester.
0.292 — Victor Robles batting against Mitch Spence.
0.292 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.291 — Donovan Solano batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.289 — Randal Grichuk batting against Martin Perez.
0.289 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Mitch Spence.
0.285 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.
0.285 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Ryan Weathers.

The Padres held out Arraez yesterday as Ohtani makes a run at the batting title and the triple crown. Ohtani is four points behind Arraez. At 194 for 627, Ohtani would need to go 5 for 5 to top Arraez. Note that four for four brings Ohtani to .31378, while Arraez is currently at .31388.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.335, 0.764 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.321, 0.752 — Jose Iglesias batting against Colin Rea.
0.304, 0.719 — Jackson Merrill batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.283, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Charlie Morton.
0.297, 0.704 — Yandy Diaz batting against Quinn Priester.
0.292, 0.703 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.285, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Ryan Weathers.
0.291, 0.697 — Donovan Solano batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.277, 0.695 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Irvin.
0.278, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Feltner.

The two systems agree on the top three picks. We will see who actually plays today. Arraez and Iglesias have been excellent picks this season.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 28, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.326 — Luis Arraez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.323 — Randal Grichuk batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.320 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.317 — Kevin Newman batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.313 — Amed Rosario batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.312 — Jake McCarthy batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.311 — Ketel Marte batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.307 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.301 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.300 — Adrian Del Castillo batting against Randy Vasquez.

There’s a very NL West feel to the Log5 results today. There still are some things up in the air with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, so you may still see the A teams on the field today. Del Castillo is a new name on the list. The Diamondbacks rookie is getting a bit more than a cup of coffee, hitting .312/.368/.525 in 87 PA.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.326, 0.756 — Luis Arraez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.293, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jared Koenig.
0.307, 0.719 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.288, 0.713 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ben Lively.
0.296, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.323, 0.711 — Randal Grichuk batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.313, 0.710 — Amed Rosario batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.320, 0.710 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.296, 0.709 — Jackson Merrill batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.295, 0.708 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Xzavion Curry.

Both lists put Arraez at the top, with Grichuk the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 27, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.303 — Jose Iglesias batting against Frankie Montas.
0.302 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.292 — Heliot Ramos batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.289 — Luis Arraez batting against Merrill Kelly.
0.286 — Randal Grichuk batting against Martin Perez.
0.286 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.
0.283 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Adam Oller.
0.283 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brady Singer.
0.283 — Kevin Newman batting against Martin Perez.
0.280 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.

MLB lists Yu Darvish as the starter for the Padres, but everywhere else it’s Perez. Keep an eye on that if you decide to select a Diamondbacks hitter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.303, 0.742 — Jose Iglesias batting against Frankie Montas.
0.289, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting against Merrill Kelly.
0.276, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Max Fried.
0.271, 0.704 — Yainer Diaz batting against Joey Cantillo.
0.283, 0.703 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Adam Oller.
0.272, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Williams.
0.280, 0.693 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.283, 0.692 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Brady Singer.
0.302, 0.692 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.279, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.276, 0.691 — Michael Harris II batting against Brady Singer.

It’s a Jose Iglesias day, with Arraez the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 26, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.352 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.349 — Luis Arraez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.317 — Jackson Merrill batting against Walker Buehler.
0.313 — Freddy Fermin batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.305 — Ivan Herrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.304 — Salvador Perez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.299 — Donovan Solano batting against Walker Buehler.
0.298 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.297 — Brendan Donovan batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.294 — Manny Machado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.294 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Walker Buehler.

Witt and Arraez face starting pitchers who are on the downside of their careers. In general, it looks like a good night for the Padres as they fight to keep a shot at the NL West title alive.

0.349, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.352, 0.752 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.317, 0.723 — Jackson Merrill batting against Walker Buehler.
0.313, 0.707 — Freddy Fermin batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.305, 0.695 — Ivan Herrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.299, 0.695 — Donovan Solano batting against Walker Buehler.
0.298, 0.694 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.297, 0.692 — Brendan Donovan batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.304, 0.691 — Salvador Perez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.294, 0.688 — Manny Machado batting against Walker Buehler.

The NN gives Arraez the nod over Witt, but both come out with much higher probabilities than anyone else of the last day of sparse games. They are your double down picks for the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.303 — Yainer Diaz batting against George Kirby.
0.302 — Luis Arraez batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.291 — Ivan Herrera batting against Austin Gomber.
0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
0.289 — Brendan Donovan batting against Austin Gomber.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Austin Gomber.
0.287 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Zack Littell.
0.286 — Randal Grichuk batting against Mason Black.
0.285 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Mason Black.
0.284 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
0.284 — Yordan Alvarez batting against George Kirby.

Alvarez suffered a slight knee injury, but may play today. Diaz continues to rank high as a beat the streak pick.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.302, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.284, 0.733 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
0.303, 0.724 — Yainer Diaz batting against George Kirby.
0.272, 0.707 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against DJ Herz.
0.290, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
0.271, 0.696 — Jackson Merrill batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.284, 0.693 — Yordan Alvarez batting against George Kirby.
0.282, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting against Keider Montero.
0.272, 0.691 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Richard Fitts.
0.289, 0.688 — Brendan Donovan batting against Austin Gomber.
0.269, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Javier Assad.

Arraez comes in as the consensus top pick with Diaz as the consensus double down choice. Iglesias’s hit streak is up to 17 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 24, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.312 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.308 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.291 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
0.281 — Luis Arraez batting against Landon Knack.
0.280 — Randal Grichuk batting against Logan Webb.
0.280 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.279 — Freddy Fermin batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.278 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Logan Webb.
0.277 — Kevin Newman batting against Logan Webb.
0.275 — William Contreras batting against Bailey Falter.

Iglesias owns a sixteen game hit streak, the longest current streak i the majors.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.308, 0.747 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.281, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Landon Knack.
0.312, 0.730 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.291, 0.705 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
0.255, 0.696 — Yainer Diaz batting against Logan Gilbert.
0.279, 0.686 — Freddy Fermin batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.258, 0.685 — Trea Turner batting against Justin Steele.
0.280, 0.684 — Randal Grichuk batting against Logan Webb.
0.278, 0.683 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Logan Webb.
0.250, 0.683 — Jackson Merrill batting against Landon Knack.

Iglesias and Witt stand as the consensus double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.284 — Trea Turner batting against Nate Pearson.
0.276 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.275 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.273 — Alec Bohm batting against Nate Pearson.
0.272 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.271 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
0.269 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.263 — Victor Robles batting against Hunter Brown.
0.259 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Hunter Brown.
0.259 — Bryce Harper batting against Nate Pearson.

The final scheduled Monday of the season features just four games. Tuner is on a bit of a hot streak hitting .343 with a .361 OBP and just seven K in is last eight games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.284, 0.698 — Trea Turner batting against Nate Pearson.
0.257, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting against Bryce Miller.
0.271, 0.692 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
0.276, 0.686 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.275, 0.683 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.273, 0.682 — Alec Bohm batting against Nate Pearson.
0.246, 0.680 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryce Miller.
0.272, 0.671 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.259, 0.669 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Hunter Brown.
0.263, 0.669 — Victor Robles batting against Hunter Brown.

Both system agree on Turner, but the probability of anyone getting a hit today is low. Yoshida stands as the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 22, 2024

Beat The Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.311 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.304 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Burke.
0.302 — Jarren Duran batting against Zebby Matthews.
0.300 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zebby Matthews.
0.299 — William Contreras batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.297 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
0.297 — Michael Harris II batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.297 — Jackson Chourio batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.295 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.

Hitters like Ozuna, who both walk a lot strike out a lot, usually don’t make this list. He is posting a .370 BABIP this year, so he does a lot of damage when he puts the bat on the ball. Pair him against a pitcher with a low K rate and a high BABIP of his own, and log5 sees Ozuna crushing him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.304, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Burke.
0.297, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
0.259, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.289, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
0.311, 0.706 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.292, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.295, 0.702 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.295, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.302, 0.702 — Jarren Duran batting against Zebby Matthews.
0.300, 0.701 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zebby Matthews.

A similar list in a different order. Ozuna looks less good on a three-year span, and the NN sees that as the most important element for evaluating a batter. Arraez tops the list as the consensus top pick, with Ozuna as the double down choice. Iglesias owns a 3 for 8 against Wheeler with no strike outs in their careers, and the Mets savior owns a fifteen game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.348 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Flexen.
0.313 — Jackson Merrill batting against Chris Flexen.
0.307 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.305 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.300 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Flexen.
0.299 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Flexen.
0.294 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Walker Buehler.
0.293 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Walker Buehler.
0.290 — Will Brennan batting against Miles Mikolas.

Arraez recorded six hits in eleven at bats against Flexen with no strikeouts.

The NN produced this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.348, 0.771 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Flexen.
0.307, 0.742 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.313, 0.721 — Jackson Merrill batting against Chris Flexen.
0.288, 0.710 — Yainer Diaz batting against Reid Detmers.
0.305, 0.703 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.259, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Landen Roupp.
0.282, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Reid Detmers.
0.300, 0.699 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Flexen.
0.295, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Flexen.
0.299, 0.691 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.

With Francisco Lindor out, the Mets bat Iglesias at the top of the lineup, which gives him the opportunity for more plate appearances in the game. With Arraez the unanimous top pick with a very high probability of a hit, you can flip a coin on Iglesias or Merrill for the double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 20, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.329 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.321 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mason Black.
0.309 — Miguel Rojas batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.308 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Alexander.
0.307 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.306 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.303 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.293 — Tommy Edman batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.293 — Luis Arraez batting against Garrett Crochet.
0.292 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Kyle Freeland.

It looks like another good night for the Dodgers as they come home to face the Rockies. In the last three seasons, Freeland is pretty even home and road. In his career, he handled Betts and Freeman very well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.329, 0.750 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.293, 0.743 — Luis Arraez batting against Garrett Crochet.
0.321, 0.731 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mason Black.
0.308, 0.711 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Alexander.
0.303, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.307, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.306, 0.699 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.309, 0.695 — Miguel Rojas batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.262, 0.694 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.275, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against David Peterson.
0.291, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Mason Black.

Iglesias owns a thirteen game hit streak, the longest in the majors at the moment. Witt is the consensus double down pick. Note that the top three on this list are all on teams pushing for a playoff spot, so they are likely to still be bearing down to win.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 19, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.344 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.311 — Yainer Diaz batting against Jose Suarez.
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Suarez.
0.304 — Nico Hoerner batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.303 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.300 — Cody Bellinger batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.300 — Jarren Duran batting against Zack Littell.
0.300 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zack Littell.
0.294 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jose Suarez.
0.292 — Connor Wong batting against Zack Littell.

Walker owns a low K rate, go he allows the ball to be put in play. Iglesias strikes out infrequently, and owns a .371 BABIP this season. You can see that this matchup heavily favors Iglesias. Career, Iglesias is four for twelve against Walker with a walk, a hit by pitch, and no strikeouts.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.344, 0.752 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.311, 0.723 — Yainer Diaz batting against Jose Suarez.
0.309, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Suarez.
0.300, 0.702 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zack Littell.
0.300, 0.701 — Jarren Duran batting against Zack Littell.
0.294, 0.697 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jose Suarez.
0.304, 0.696 — Nico Hoerner batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.278, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting against Brayan Bello.
0.303, 0.692 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.274, 0.692 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Severino.

The NN also sees the Iglesia-Walker matchup favorably. Yainer Diaz is also the unanimous double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 18, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.296 — Randal Grichuk batting against Austin Gomber.
0.294 — Kevin Newman batting against Austin Gomber.
0.290 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jake Woodford.
0.289 — Brendan Donovan batting against Jake Woodford.
0.289 — Alec Burleson batting against Jake Woodford.
0.288 — Masyn Winn batting against Jake Woodford.
0.287 — Jake McCarthy batting against Austin Gomber.
0.287 — Ketel Marte batting against Austin Gomber.
0.286 — Ivan Herrera batting against Jake Woodford.
0.280 — Luis Arraez batting against Framber Valdez.

It looks like a good day for both the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. Grichuk platoons against left-handed pitchers, and Gomber throws left-handed.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.280, 0.737 — Luis Arraez batting against Framber Valdez.
0.277, 0.722 — Jose Iglesias batting against DJ Herz.
0.296, 0.700 — Randal Grichuk batting against Austin Gomber.
0.294, 0.696 — Kevin Newman batting against Austin Gomber.
0.256, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tarik Skubal.
0.271, 0.689 — Amed Rosario batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
0.287, 0.687 — Jake McCarthy batting against Austin Gomber.
0.287, 0.687 — Ketel Marte batting against Austin Gomber.
0.290, 0.685 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jake Woodford.
0.262, 0.684 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cody Bradford.

Arraez moves from the bottom to the top but with a rather low probability of a hit. His 0 for 5 on Tuesday ended the NN’s longest hit streak of the season at 15. Grichuk stands as the consensus top pick, while Newman get the double down nod. The Diamondbacks play this afternoon, so get your picks in early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 17, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.337 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Casey Mize.
0.315 — Luis Arraez batting against Hunter Brown.
0.312 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.307 — Freddy Fermin batting against Casey Mize.
0.297 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.295 — Miguel Rojas batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.294 — Steven Kwan batting against Daniel Matthews.
0.294 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.292 — Amed Rosario batting against Grant Holmes.
0.292 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bobby Miller.

Both Arraez and Kwan are listed as day to day. Arraez extended his hit streak to fourteen games. It’s a knee injury for Arraez, so we’ll see if he plays tonight.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.315, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Hunter Brown.
0.337, 0.744 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Casey Mize.
0.312, 0.736 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.307, 0.709 — Freddy Fermin batting against Casey Mize.
0.292, 0.700 — Amed Rosario batting against Grant Holmes.
0.277, 0.697 — Jackson Merrill batting against Hunter Brown.
0.292, 0.694 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bobby Miller.
0.294, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.287, 0.692 — Freddie Freeman batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.256, 0.691 — Yainer Diaz batting against Michael King.
0.297, 0.691 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jordan Montgomery.

The order is a little different, but the two systems agree on Arraez and Witt as the double down choice, or Witt and Iglesias if Arraez can’t play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 16, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.305 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.299 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jake Irvin.
0.294 — Randal Grichuk batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.292 — Kevin Newman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.287 — Jake McCarthy batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.285 — Ketel Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.281 — Trea Turner batting against Aaron Civale.
0.276 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Reese Olson.
0.275 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yu Darvish.
0.274 — Adrian Del Castillo batting against Antonio Senzatela.

It looks like a good day for the Diamondbacks, although some of the players listed for the team are down on the depth chart.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.305, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.299, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jake Irvin.
0.276, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Reese Olson.
0.294, 0.706 — Randal Grichuk batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.275, 0.705 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yu Darvish.
0.292, 0.703 — Kevin Newman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.270, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.287, 0.696 — Jake McCarthy batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.281, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Aaron Civale.
0.285, 0.693 — Ketel Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.

The two systems are in agreement at the top today, with Arraez and Iglesias the double down pair.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.325 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.319 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Walker Buehler.
0.317 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.304 — Ernie Clement batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.300 — Michael Harris II batting against Walker Buehler.
0.298 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.298 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Martin Perez.
0.298 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.295 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.290 — Gio Urshela batting against Walker Buehler.
0.290 — Will Wagner batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.289 — Yainer Diaz batting against Caden Dana.
0.285 — Luis Arraez batting against Landen Roupp.

The list runs a little longer today because ESPN lists both Rodgers and Fitzgerald as day to day. Both Mikolas and Buehler allow a high number of hits and the two slugger at the top of the list can take advantage of that. The Dodgers-Braves is the Sunday night game, so you may need to wait awhile for the starting lineups.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.285, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Landen Roupp.
0.317, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.325, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.289, 0.714 — Yainer Diaz batting against Caden Dana.
0.319, 0.712 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Walker Buehler.
0.283, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Caden Dana.
0.270, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jared Jones.
0.298, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.300, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting against Walker Buehler.
0.304, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting against Miles Mikolas.

The NN rates the pesky hitters like Arraez and Iglesias higher than the sluggers, but the sluggers still do well on the list. Note that both Arraez and Iglesias own decent hit streaks. Lawrence Butler, who is at 22 games, has a probability of getting a hit of .642 and a projected hit average of .242.

Guerrero comes in as the consensus top pick with Iglesias the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.337 — Xavier Edwards batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.334 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
0.321 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kolby Allard.
0.307 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitch Keller.
0.296 — Cody Bellinger batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.294 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.294 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
0.294 — Brent Rooker batting against Chris Flexen.
0.293 — Nico Hoerner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.292 — Otto Lopez batting against Patrick Corbin.

In his 325 MLB PA, Edwards owns a .388 BABIP. That’s good news against Patrick Corbin, who has been easy to hit over the last few seasons.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.334, 0.763 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
0.321, 0.739 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kolby Allard.
0.337, 0.729 — Xavier Edwards batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.307, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitch Keller.
0.294, 0.703 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
0.265, 0.700 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.285, 0.698 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.274, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Severino.
0.260, 0.692 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.296, 0.691 — Cody Bellinger batting against Kyle Freeland.

The two systems agree on the top four, in a slightly different order. Lawrence Butler does not appear on either list, but has hit in 21 straight games. The NN gives him a probability of .668.

Arraez once again is the top pick, with Edwards the consensus double down choice. Both Arraez and Iglesias are working on decent hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.329 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
0.300 — Steven Kwan batting against Zack Littell.
0.294 — Jose Iglesias batting against Aaron Nola.
0.289 — Jose Ramirez batting against Zack Littell.
0.288 — Jackson Merrill batting against Logan Webb.
0.281 — Will Brennan batting against Zack Littell.
0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against Logan Webb.
0.280 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Zach Eflin.
0.278 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Austin Gomber.
0.278 — Cody Bellinger batting against Austin Gomber.

There’s a good article at MLB.com about Arraez’s streak of not striking out. Balls in play lead to hits. He’s hitting .381 since Aug. 11th, with 43 hits in 27 games, 0 K, five walks, and two hit by pitches. Note that Kwan, with 50 K in 475 in 537 PA doesn’t strikeout much either by today’s standards.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.329, 0.760 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
0.294, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Aaron Nola.
0.270, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Ortiz.
0.272, 0.703 — Yainer Diaz batting against Samuel Aldegheri.
0.288, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Logan Webb.
0.268, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Samuel Aldegheri.
0.300, 0.696 — Steven Kwan batting against Zack Littell.
0.272, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Jose Quintana.
0.268, 0.688 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281, 0.687 — Donovan Solano batting against Logan Webb.

Note that Arraez’s ability not to K puts him way ahead of everyone else in terms of probability of getting a hit. Altuve remains day to day with an injury. Jose Iglesias is the consensus double down pick:

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.308 — Yainer Diaz batting against Mitch Spence.
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Mitch Spence.
0.299 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.297 — Harold Ramirez batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.297 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Mitch Spence.
0.289 — Xavier Edwards batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.288 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.283 — Juan Yepez batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.280 — Jose Tena batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.279 — Aaron Judge batting against Cooper Criswell.

On a day with just eight games, some of the high average sluggers make the top ten. Note that Jose Altuve left the game on Wednesday with an injury, so check his status if you decide to pick him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.308, 0.723 — Yainer Diaz batting against Mitch Spence.
0.306, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Mitch Spence.
0.297, 0.709 — Harold Ramirez batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.297, 0.704 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Mitch Spence.
0.299, 0.702 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.289, 0.694 — Xavier Edwards batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.288, 0.690 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.257, 0.680 — Amed Rosario batting against Sonny Gray.
0.269, 0.680 — Jarren Duran batting against Nestor Cortes.
0.267, 0.679 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Nestor Cortes.

There is good agreement between the two lists, coming up with the same top seven in a slightly different order. Diaz and Altuve are the unanimous double down picks. If Altuve can’t play, Ramirez would be the double down pick. It’s also possible that Diaz doesn’t play, since it’s a day game after a night game and that is usually a day of rest for first string catchers.

September 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.309 — Jose Miranda batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
0.300 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bailey Falter.
0.297 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Casey Mize.
0.293 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Casey Mize.
0.292 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Tanner Gordon.
0.285 — Colt Keith batting against Tanner Gordon.
0.283 — Yainer Diaz batting against Joey Estes.
0.282 — Matt Vierling batting against Tanner Gordon.
0.282 — Andy Ibanez batting against Tanner Gordon.
0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Joey Estes.

Miranda hit poorly since his return from the illjured list with a .237/.268/.336 slash line. He knocked out three triples but no home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.278, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryan Woo.
0.283, 0.709 — Yainer Diaz batting against Joey Estes.
0.282, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Joey Estes.
0.309, 0.705 — Jose Miranda batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
0.300, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bailey Falter.
0.257, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bowden Francis.
0.278, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Lance Lynn.
0.297, 0.691 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Casey Mize.
0.270, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Joey Estes.
0.293, 0.685 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Casey Mize.

Unlike Miranda, Arraez is hot. He is hitting .462 with a .512 OBP during a nine-game hit streak. Miranda and Edwards come in as the consensus double down picks. Note that it’s a fairly low probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.326 — Luis Arraez batting against George Kirby.
0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.302 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290 — Jackson Merrill batting against George Kirby.
0.289 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.285 — Jose Miranda batting against Griffin Canning.
0.284 — Steven Kwan batting against Jonathan Cannon.
0.282 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against George Kirby.
0.276 — Freddy Fermin batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.276 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Keider Montero.

It’s the usual group at the top. Note that Lawrence Butler of Oakland currently holds an 18 game streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.326, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against George Kirby.
0.304, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.302, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
0.290, 0.700 — Jackson Merrill batting against George Kirby.
0.285, 0.695 — Jose Miranda batting against Griffin Canning.
0.289, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.274, 0.692 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against David Peterson.
0.274, 0.688 — Jarren Duran batting against Albert Suarez.
0.276, 0.687 — Freddy Fermin batting against Marcus Stroman.

The two systems agree on the top three, with Arraez and Iglesias the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.312 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.306 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.302 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.301 — Miguel Rojas batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.301 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.292 — Jarren Duran batting against Cade Povich.
0.290 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.287 — Yandy Diaz batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.287 — Cody Bellinger batting against Walker Buehler.

It looks like a good night for the Dodgers against Hendricks. Betts hit .309/.368/.596 since his return. The high BA with a relatively low OBP means he collected hits in 80% of his games since returning. Betts currently owns an eight game hit streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.304, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.301, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.280, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.306, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.312, 0.706 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.292, 0.700 — Jarren Duran batting against Cade Povich.
0.287, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.285, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Cade Povich.
0.302, 0.693 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.275, 0.687 — Jose Miranda batting against Reid Detmers.
0.281, 0.687 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Nick Martinez.

The two systems agree to a large extend on the players, but not the order. Iglesias comes out as the consensus top pick, with Betts and Freeman tied for second. Freeman is 9 for 14 with four walks and two strikeouts against Hendricks. Betts is three for nine with a walk and a K.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.310 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.308 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.307 — Jackson Chourio batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.305 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.303 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Flexen.
0.303 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.302 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Bivens.
0.302 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.299 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.298 — Oneil Cruz batting against Patrick Corbin.

Yainer Diaz continues to rise in the Beat the Streak rankings, now passing long time top ten teammate Jose Altuve. Diaz even managed three triples this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.302, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Bivens.
0.310, 0.723 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.297, 0.722 — Jose Iglesias batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.308, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.279, 0.713 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
0.303, 0.711 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Flexen.
0.299, 0.705 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.296, 0.703 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Flexen.
0.307, 0.696 — Jackson Chourio batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.305, 0.695 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Freeland.

Arraez owns a seven game hit streak during which he’s hitting .414. Diaz comes out as the consensus top pick, with Altuve the consensus double down choice. Mix and match as you like. The Astros are playing the late game today, so Diaz might not get the day off.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.344 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ty Blach.
0.338 — William Contreras batting against Ty Blach.
0.322 — Sal Frelick batting against Ty Blach.
0.318 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
0.310 — Eric Haase batting against Ty Blach.
0.310 — Brice Turang batting against Ty Blach.
0.309 — Garrett Mitchell batting against Ty Blach.
0.306 — Blake Perkins batting against Ty Blach.
0.301 — Trea Turner batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.300 — Willy Adames batting against Ty Blach.

Blach liners matter, as opponents manage a line drive against him 25.2% of the time. The Brewers look like good bets to take advantage of that, although they are playing in Milwaukee today. Note that the Nationals and Pirates play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.318, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
0.344, 0.721 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ty Blach.
0.294, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jakob Junis.
0.338, 0.716 — William Contreras batting against Ty Blach.
0.301, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against Darren McCaughan.
0.287, 0.707 — Yainer Diaz batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.261, 0.703 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bailey Ober.
0.283, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.287, 0.701 — Jackson Merrill batting against Logan Webb.
0.283, 0.697 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Mitch Keller.
0.277, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Mitch Keller.

The NN list depends more on the batter than the pitcher, so this list produces a more diverse list of teams. It’s the fourth day in a row for a high probability of a hit from Arraez, who owns a six-game hit streak. Chourio ranks as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 6, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.320 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
0.314 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
0.300 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.290 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
0.290 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.286 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.284 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
0.283 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.282 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.

Doubling down on Jacksons seems like a good deal as the two rookies project to the same hit average today. Chourio owns a nine-game hit streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.320, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
0.314, 0.732 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
0.300, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.294, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.290, 0.701 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
0.286, 0.695 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.284, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
0.265, 0.689 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Max Fried.
0.268, 0.689 — Jarren Duran batting against Davis Martin.
0.282, 0.688 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.
0.247, 0.688 — Jose Iglesias batting against Fernando Cruz.

I was watching the Rockies broadcast last night, and they discussed the number of sluggers hitting for high batting averages. In was in the context of Marcel Ozuna batting, but they brought up Alvarez, Guerrero, and Aaron Judge. They did not put Witt in the same category, and yet Witt ranks second in the AL in extra-base hits, total bases, and slugging percentage.

The two systems agree on the top three batters, with Arraez and Witt the unanimous double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 5, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.347 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
0.317 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
0.307 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
0.301 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
0.299 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
0.292 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Casey Mize.
0.292 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Casey Mize.
0.288 — Elias Diaz batting against Casey Mize.

It looks like a good day for the Padres as Mize takes the mound. Arraez owns consecutive two-hit games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.347, 0.766 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
0.317, 0.721 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
0.299, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
0.292, 0.708 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
0.307, 0.705 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
0.301, 0.703 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
0.271, 0.702 — Yainer Diaz batting against Rhett Lowder.
0.280, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Hunter Brown.
0.285, 0.691 — Michael Harris II batting against Austin Gomber.
0.263, 0.690 — Jose Altuve batting against Rhett Lowder.

Merrill, in his rookie season, turned out to be a high BA, low OBA player. His strikeout rate is low for the ERA, but high compared to Arraez. Still, he’s a good double down choice today as the two systems agree at the top.

Note there are a number of afternoon games today, and no real late games as the West coast sees two 5 PM PDT contests. Get your picks in early!

September 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.318 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
0.306 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.304 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.301 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
0.297 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.286 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
0.285 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against George Kirby.
0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against Keider Montero.

Edwards kept popping up in the top ten during his stint on the illjured list. He is a high average hitter who walks a decent amount, but his hits are high enough to earn him a good hit average.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.318, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
0.297, 0.726 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
0.301, 0.719 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
0.306, 0.713 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.275, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Houck.
0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.304, 0.704 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.286, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
0.285, 0.694 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.269, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Spencer Arrighetti.

Arraez comes out on top once again, with Guerrero the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.319 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.300 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.298 — Michael Harris II batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.296 — Jackson Chourio batting against Steven Matz.
0.296 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.296 — Gio Urshela batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.295 — Oneil Cruz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.293 — William Contreras batting against Steven Matz.
0.292 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.289 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Phillips.

This might be the first time in a few years that Patrick Corbin pitched and no one batting against him made the list. Corbin improved lately, but I suspect the Marlins batters don’t have great numbers.

Once again I am impressed to see sluggers with high OBPs make the list, especially with Ozuna at the top. He is very high on a lot of leader boards that have to do with hits, and ranks in the top five in all three average categories.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.285, 0.716 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
0.319, 0.714 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.267, 0.704 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kutter Crawford.
0.289, 0.699 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Phillips.
0.285, 0.698 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Max Meyer.
0.279, 0.698 — Harold Ramirez batting against Max Meyer.
0.298, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.283, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.279, 0.690 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
0.296, 0.690 — Gio Urshela batting against Kyle Freeland.

A somewhat different list, where the more traditional streak extenders join the sluggers. At this point, Witt belongs in the sluggers who get on base category, but long term he is more high BA, low OBP. There are also four teams with a day off, which is why we don’t see Luis Arraez.

Ozuna stands as the consensus top pick, while Harris beats out Guerrero for the double down slot.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 2, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.314 — Jose Miranda batting against Zack Littell.
0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brayan Bello.
0.295 — Luis Arraez batting against Ty Madden.
0.292 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
0.292 — Yainer Diaz batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.280 — Aaron Judge batting against Jack Leiter.
0.280 — Royce Lewis batting against Zack Littell.
0.278 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.278 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Chris Flexen.

I’m a bit blown away that both Judge and Alvarez make the list, even on a day with limited games. Sluggers who walk a lot tend not to be great at extending hit streaks. Alvarez at least owns a low K rate, while Judge’s BABIP is in the .370s.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.295, 0.739 — Luis Arraez batting against Ty Madden.
0.304, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brayan Bello.
0.292, 0.720 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
0.292, 0.713 — Yainer Diaz batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.314, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Zack Littell.
0.284, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.278, 0.690 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Julian Aguiar.
0.269, 0.690 — Amed Rosario batting against Justin Verlander.
0.268, 0.685 — Jarren Duran batting against Luis Severino.
0.265, 0.683 — Freddy Fermin batting against Gavin Williams.
0.263, 0.683 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ty Madden.

Alvarez stays on this list, while Judge drops off. Iglesias and Arraez tie for the consensus top pick, making them the double down choice. Arraez tends to be platooned. Ty Madden is right handed, but the Tigers have not named an official starter yet.

Get your picks in early, as there are a number of early starts on this holiday.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.336 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Ty Blach.
0.334 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Ty Blach.
0.330 — Gunnar Henderson batting against Ty Blach.
0.320 — Adley Rutschman batting against Ty Blach.
0.317 — Ramon Urias batting against Ty Blach.
0.309 — Livan Soto batting against Ty Blach.
0.303 — Anthony Santander batting against Ty Blach.
0.298 — Aaron Judge batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.297 — Colton Cowser batting against Ty Blach.
0.288 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Cooper Criswell.

It looks like a blow out for the Orioles today, as eight of their position players make the list against Blach in Colorado. Note that the Log5 Method does not make an adjustment for the park; the NN does that. Blach owns a low K rate of 4.81 per 9 IP, walks few batters, gives up lots of home runs, and opponents own a .348 BABIP against him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.336, 0.720 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Ty Blach.
0.334, 0.717 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Ty Blach.
0.254, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryan Pepiot.
0.285, 0.710 — Yainer Diaz batting against Alec Marsh.
0.330, 0.708 — Gunnar Henderson batting against Ty Blach.
0.265, 0.704 — Jose Iglesias batting against Garrett Crochet.
0.279, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Alec Marsh.
0.320, 0.697 — Adley Rutschman batting against Ty Blach.
0.281, 0.696 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Jordan Wicks.
0.275, 0.696 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jordan Wicks.

Only four Orioles make this list, but the two systems agree on the top as O’Hearn and Jimenez rank as the double down choice on both.

Note that today is the last year you can start a streak and still have a chance at reaching 57 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!