Category Archives: Fantasy Baseball

August 31, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Diaz now owns a career .290 BA and a .316 OBP. That OBP is made up of 245 hits and 31 walks. He’s a good example of someone who generates hits eats up some outs. That’s great for extending hit streaks, not so great for the overall offense of the club. On the other hand, he is a catcher, and that’s really good offense for the position.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.299, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Shane Baz.
  • 0.309, 0.729 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.287, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Davis Martin.
  • 0.313, 0.711 — Yandy Diaz batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.276, 0.696 — Amed Rosario batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.280, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.253, 0.690 — Yainer Diaz batting against Cole Ragans.
  • 0.270, 0.688 — Jackson Merrill batting against Shane Baz.
  • 0.263, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.269, 0.687 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.

The Padres platoon Arraez. I’m not sure if it’s due to his thumb injury, or his splits. It may be both. Baz is a right-hander, so Arraez should be in the lineup tonight. He’s not on the list, but Oneil Cruz owns a ten-game streak, and he’s been on fire since the Pirates removed him from shortstop.

Arraez and Witt tie for the consensus top choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Red Sox as Mize is a low strikeout and walk pitcher with a high BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.316, 0.733 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.281, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting against Taj Bradley.
  • 0.311, 0.717 — Amed Rosario batting against DL Hall.
  • 0.281, 0.714 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.311, 0.713 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.311, 0.710 — Jarren Duran batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.275, 0.704 — Yainer Diaz batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.297, 0.700 — Yandy Diaz batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.290, 0.698 — Steven Kwan batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.270, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting against Seth Lugo.

It’s a day that starts with a Y as you can double down with two Y. Diazes! They are not related. Bill James usually shies away from combined stats comparisons, but does like Duran’s combination of extra-base hits and stolen bases.

All that said, Iglesias and Rosario are the consensus double down picks of the day.

August 28, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Orioles, although who knows if Walker Buehler will return to form as he recovers from a long term injury. Diaz comes out on top. He owns a career .289 BA with a .315 OBP. High BA, low OBP usually means someone who should be good at extending streaks. He’s raised both those numbers this season to .297/.323.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

It’s nice to see a new generation of hitters making this list. Arraez is the consensus top pick, with Diaz the double down choice.

Note that the Rangers and White Sox are playing the finish of a game suspended after four pitches, then the regularly scheduled game. That will likely influence the lineup for the second game, the game that counts here today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 27, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:

Judge comes out second on this list, but he walks so much he is a tough pick. Also, Corbin looks like he’s improving since the Yankees don’t dominate the top picks!

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.340, 0.762 — Luis Arraez batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.302, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
  • 0.288, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.314, 0.717 — Donovan Solano batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.311, 0.714 — Jackson Merrill batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.302, 0.714 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.320, 0.711 — Aaron Judge batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.305, 0.711 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cooper Criswell.
  • 0.285, 0.710 — Yainer Diaz batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.298, 0.702 — Freddie Freeman batting against Cole Irvin.

Both systems agree on Arraez as the top pick. Judge, Solano, and Witt all tie for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 26, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages averages against starting pitchers:

The afternoon continuation game in Boston is not available for your beat the streak picks. My source has Criswell starting the evening game, but that is not official. If you want to pick someone from the Blue Jays, check the Boston starter first.

It looks like a good day for the Cardinals

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.314, 0.749 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.337, 0.747 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.310, 0.714 — Xavier Edwards batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.308, 0.712 — Freddy Fermin batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.304, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cooper Criswell.
  • 0.288, 0.702 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.283, 0.696 — Jackson Merrill batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.280, 0.696 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.305, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.271, 0.693 — Harold Ramirez batting against Nestor Cortes.

The NN flips one and two on Log5, with Arraez a hair ahead of Witt. They are the consensus double down choices for today. Expect to see Merrill on the list more as the season progresses and into next year as well. He owns a .288 BA with a .319 OBP, a high BA without too many walks. He also owns a reasonable K rate. At 482 PA, the long term variable of the NN is still regressing his number toward the mean, but less and less every day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Log5 picked a number of batters from the Mets at the Padres this weekend, and it seems to like the Mets versus Perez today. Iglesias is 5 for21 against Perez in his career, but with just one HBP and one K. So he puts the ball in play. Lindor, on the other hand, is seven for 17 with five walks and one K. That’s a possible Mets double down.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.336, 0.750 — Jose Iglesias batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.315, 0.738 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.296, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.291, 0.707 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.265, 0.704 — Yainer Diaz batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.269, 0.698 — Amed Rosario batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.258, 0.693 — Jose Altuve batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.273, 0.693 — Donovan Solano batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.280, 0.692 — Yandy Diaz batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.264, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting against Seth Lugo.

Yainer Diaz is the only member of the top ten working on any kind of a hit streak. The two systems agree on the top three, making Iglesias and Witt the double down pick for today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 24, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Edwards left the game on Friday with an injury, so check before you make him a pick. Rosario ranks high as Woodford allows a relatively high BA without too many walks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.740 — Luis Arraez batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.293, 0.728 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.320, 0.728 — Amed Rosario batting against Jake Woodford.
  • 0.284, 0.713 — Yainer Diaz batting against Albert Suarez.
  • 0.267, 0.712 — Jose Iglesias batting against Michael King.
  • 0.284, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.277, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Albert Suarez.
  • 0.277, 0.698 — Donovan Solano batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.284, 0.696 — Xavier Edwards batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.286, 0.695 — Steven Kwan batting against Jon Gray.

The two systems show good agreement on which players make the top ten. Arraez captures the consensus top slot, while Rosario takes the double down pick. Rosario owns a .306 BA and a .331 OBP, so he gets on base mostly by hits. A high BA with a relatively low OBP something to look for in a hit streak extender.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Log5 provides an interesting list today, as there are a number of high batting average sluggers included. Judge, Ozuna, Guerrero, and Soto are not exactly “put the ball in play” types of batters like Iglesias and Arraez. They walk all draw walks, and Judge and Ozuna add a ton of strikeouts. Judge is leading the majors in BABIP this season at .381. It’s a shame he does strike out so much, because at the level, with his home run power, he could hit .400 if he put the ball in play more.

I also made the list a little longer than usual, as Soto and Chisholm come out even. Their hit averages are very similar. Soto owns a high walk rate and a low K rate, Chisholm is the opposite. If you take the combination as the not in play rate, they are almost the same. This season, Chisholm has the higher BABIP, .312 to .299, but Soto makes up the difference with home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.307, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.324, 0.744 — Jose Iglesias batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.319, 0.739 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.307, 0.719 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.291, 0.715 — Yainer Diaz batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.319, 0.713 — Xavier Edwards batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.300, 0.709 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.323, 0.708 — Aaron Judge batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.300, 0.708 — Jarren Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Cade Povich.

The NN, weighing batter ability more heavily, tends to do a better job of finding the ball in play hitters. Judge still makes the top ten, albeit at a much lower rank. Judge and Witt both carry ten-game hit streaks into the day.

Iglesias stands as the consensus top pick with Witt the consensus double down choice. By the way, that is a real tie at the top, as out to four decimal places both Arraez and Iglesias are .7439. They play against each other tonight.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

  • 0.323 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.319 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.313 — Elias Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.305 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.297 — Jackson Chourio batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.297 — Brenton Doyle batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.296 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.295 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.294 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.293 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Cal Quantrill.

There’s a light schedule today with lots of early games, so get your picks in soon. It looks like a good day to pick from the Rockies at Nationals, and that game kicks off at 1 PM EDT. Rodgers is a low walk player with a high BABIP, although he does strikeout some. Not a bad top pick, especially against Corbin.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.294, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.323, 0.713 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.319, 0.707 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.293, 0.706 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.285, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.247, 0.702 — Jose Iglesias batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.305, 0.702 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.295, 0.700 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.313, 0.699 — Elias Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.264, 0.698 — Yainer Diaz batting against Corbin Burnes.

The NN, which weighs the batter’s long-term history the most puts Arraez way ahead of the others. Rodgers does rank as the consensus top pick however, with Tovar the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

In 280 PA, Edwards owns a .391 BABIP. His strikeout rate of 15.7% is low for this era. He does draw a decent number of walks, but in general he is developing into a very good streak extender.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.341, 0.751 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.314, 0.741 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.286, 0.731 — Luis Arraez batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.318, 0.730 — Yainer Diaz batting against Cooper Criswell.
  • 0.312, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Cooper Criswell.
  • 0.321, 0.710 — Xavier Edwards batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.304, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr.batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.294, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.283, 0.702 — Freddy Fermin batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.296, 0.698 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Cooper Criswell.

Iglesias produced a one for nine career against Irvin with two strikeouts. He is the unanimous top pick, with Witt the consensus double down choice. The Mets and Astros play early, so get your picks in now for those games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 20, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Nationals. Since the start of 2022, Garcia owns a .277 BA with a .309 OBP. So while he does a poor job of getting on baes, he does a good job of generating hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.281, 0.722 — Jose Iglesias batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.265, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.313, 0.719 — Luis Garcia Jr.batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.306, 0.718 — Harold Ramirez batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.274, 0.717 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.311, 0.711 — Jose Miranda batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.271, 0.699 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.294, 0.699 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Carson Spiers.
  • 0.268, 0.695 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.261, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Bryce Miller.

For the second day in a row, Iglesias and Arraez come up 1-2 on this list. Garcia is the consensus top pick, with Ramirez the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 19, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

  • 0.329 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.298 — Luis Arraez batting against Daniel Matthews.
  • 0.286 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.285 — Starling Marte batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.284 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.283 — Xavier Edwards batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.280 — Jarren Duran batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.279 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.277 — Jake McCarthy batting against Adam Oller.
  • 0.277 — Rafael Devers batting against Yusei Kikuchi.

Only ten games tonight. Iglesias is having a great August with three games in a row of two hits.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.749 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.298, 0.739 — Luis Arraez batting against Daniel Matthews.
  • 0.264, 0.711 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carson Fulmer.
  • 0.269, 0.699 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.267, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.284, 0.696 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.283, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.280, 0.689 — Jarren Duran batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.277, 0.688 — Jake McCarthy batting against Adam Oller.
  • 0.272, 0.688 — Donovan Solano batting against Daniel Matthews.

The two systems are in agreement at the top with Iglesias and Arraez as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 18, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a pretty good day for pitching, as no one come up with a hit average over .300. The top three here come up often in the calculations.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.299, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Bradley Blalock.
  • 0.294, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andrew Abbott.
  • 0.275, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Valente Bellozo.
  • 0.281, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.289, 0.698 — Luis Garcia Jr batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.281, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.268, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ky Bush.
  • 0.267, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Ky Bush.
  • 0.267, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.271, 0.694 — Donovan Solano batting against Bradley Blalock.

Arraez comes up with a decent probability, likely due to the game taking place at Coors Field. He and Witt are the unanimous double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 17, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like another good night for the Padres in Colorado. They picked up nine his on Friday in 7-3 Rockies win. Freeland allows a .341 BABIP this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.365, 0.780 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.335, 0.733 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.306, 0.732 — Jose Iglesias batting against Max Meyer.
  • 0.327, 0.725 — Jackson Merrill batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.286, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.308, 0.721 — Yainer Diaz batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.307, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.308, 0.718 — Trea Turner batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.296, 0.715 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.314, 0.713 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.

Arraez and Solano stand as the unanimous double down choices. Arraez’s probability is so high, however, you might just want to pick him to keep your streak alive.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 16, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:

Corbin allowed 43 hits in 34 1/3 innings pitching for the Nationals in Philadelphia. There are a number of high-walk sluggers on the list today due to the poor pitching against them.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.318, 0.756 — Luis Arraez batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.341, 0.737 — Trea Turner batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.330, 0.732 — Amed Rosario batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.305, 0.730 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.331, 0.725 — Alec Bohm batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.289, 0.724 — Jose Iglesias batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.318, 0.716 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.302, 0.711 — Steven Kwan batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.304, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.293, 0.709 — Donovan Solano batting against Cal Quantrill.

Arraez owns the most plate appearances against Quantrill, and Quantrill comes out on top. The matchup produced a .207/.233/.345 slash line. Both of the extra-base hits were triples. Arraez walked once and struck out four times. The game is in Colorado, and Arraez should see some action against the bullpen.

Turner stands as the consensus top pick, with Arraez second and Rosario third.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Red Sox as Eflin brings both a low K rate and a low strikeout rate into the game. Duran owns a .358 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.311, 0.734 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.288, 0.695 — Jarren Duran batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.272, 0.694 — Jose Miranda batting against Cody Bradford.
  • 0.266, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.282, 0.691 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.272, 0.687 — Alec Bohm batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.282, 0.685 — Rafael Devers batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.279, 0.681 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.282, 0.679 — Connor Wong batting against Zach Eflin.

It’s a unanimous Iglesias-Duran double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Astros against Littell, who allows a .336 BABIP and seldom walks batter. Diaz emerged as a very good pick recently. His walk and strikeout rates are low, and this season owns a .329 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.340, 0.748 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.302, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.334, 0.738 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.331, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.296, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.302, 0.713 — Steven Kwan batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.307, 0.708 — Freddy Fermin batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.291, 0.708 — Amed Rosario batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.312, 0.707 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.308, 0.700 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jordan Montgomery.

The two systems are mostly in agreement at the top, with Arraez moving from tenth to second. Witt tops both lists, with Diaz the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that a number of players in the top ten are listed as day to day, including Witt and Marte.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

Both systems agree on Iglesias as the top pick, with Garcia the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Pirates have not made an official announcement about a starter, but the AP has Gonzales. If so, it looks like a very good day for the Padres. I find it cruel that Log5 adds Guerrero to the list the day after his hit streak ends.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.351, 0.768 — Luis Arraez batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.302, 0.727 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.328, 0.726 — Donovan Solano batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.315, 0.711 — Jackson Merrill batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.286, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.305, 0.703 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.282, 0.698 — Jose Miranda batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.295, 0.697 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Davis Daniel.
  • 0.297, 0.689 — Manny Machado batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.248, 0.687 — Yainer Diaz batting against Taj Bradley.

Not quite as Padres heavy, but Arraez and Solano come out as the consensus double down choice. Arraez is 0 for 7 against Gonzales with a walk and no strikeouts. Solano is three for six with two strikeouts. Machado is 6 for 11 with no walks and no strikeouts.

I suspect Arraez might not start the game due to the lefty on the mound and Arreaz’s thumb injury.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It’s an unusual list, as Kyle Freeland elevates a number of Braves hitters. Ozuna owns a high strikeout rate and a high walk rate, and usually those players don’t deliver hits that often. The opposition produces a .348 BABIP against Freeland in 2024.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.303, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Meyer.
  • 0.280, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.295, 0.712 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.318, 0.711 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.290, 0.707 — Steven Kwan batting against David Festa.
  • 0.276, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.294, 0.703 — Luis Garcia batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.286, 0.702 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.271, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.282, 0.698 — Donovan Solano batting against Max Meyer.

There is some agreement between the two systems. Arraez, who is still feeling the effects of a thumb injury stands as the consensus top pick. Ozuna comes in as consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Angels look to hit well against Patrick Corbin. It might be the only time you see Pillar on the list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.741 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.288, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.295, 0.720 — Yainer Diaz batting against Josh Winckowski.
  • 0.293, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Winckowski.
  • 0.260, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.288, 0.703 — Luis Garcia batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.277, 0.700 — Steven Kwan batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.288, 0.700 — Freddy Fermin batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.278, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.285, 0.699 — Jose Miranda batting against Gavin Williams.

Witt is now regularly beating out Arraez for the top slot. League hit average is up to .219, which make everyone a little better. Witt and Diaz are the consensus double down choice for today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Royals are in a very good position with two catchers who can generate hits. Combined with Witt, it makes them a strong team up the middle.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.347, 0.754 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.320, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.316, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.266, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Edward Cabrera.
  • 0.324, 0.716 — Xavier Edwards batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.278, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bryce Miller.
  • 0.296, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.312, 0.712 — Freddy Fermin batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.308, 0.710 — Alec Bohm batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Keller.

Although he doesn’t make the top ten, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.owns a 20-game hit streak. He continues to destroy pitchers, with a .507/.575/1.096 slash line. The NN gives him a probability of getting a hit of .696, and a .289 projected hit average against Mitch Spence.

Witt is the unanimous top pick, while Turner comes in as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Iglesias gets one more game in Colorado, he is 3 for 8 in the series so far. His hit averages are .284 for this season and .292 since 2022.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.333, 0.754 — Jose Iglesias batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.289, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.331, 0.727 — Trea Turner batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.318, 0.712 — Alec Bohm batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.274, 0.698 — Harold Ramirez batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.314, 0.697 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.308, 0.693 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.271, 0.693 — Donovan Solano batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.277, 0.692 — Luis Garcia batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.268, 0.687 — Yandy Diaz batting against Kyle Gibson.

The two systems are unanimous on Iglesias, and the consensus puts Turner as the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Angels vs. the Yankees and the Diamondbacks vs. the Guardians are both doubleheaders today, so be careful picking from those games. Make sure you get the right starting pitcher, and that your hitter is in the lineup.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.342, 0.764 — Luis Arraez batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.323, 0.748 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.318, 0.720 — Donovan Solano batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.310, 0.717 — Trea Turner batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.299, 0.715 — Steven Kwan batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.281, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kutter Crawford.
  • 0.291, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.287, 0.708 — Yainer Diaz batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.299, 0.705 — Alec Bohm batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.300, 0.702 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.280, 0.702 — Steven Kwan batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

The two systems agree on an Arraez/Iglesias double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 6, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good night for the Mets. Both Bader and Martinez have small sample of success against Freeland.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.354, 0.762 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.314, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.329, 0.743 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.308, 0.717 — Amed Rosario batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.304, 0.711 — Freddy Fermin batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.297, 0.710 — Jose Miranda batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.280, 0.702 — Steven Kwan batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.272, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.292, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.281, 0.693 — Donovan Solano batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.309, 0.693 — Harrison Bader batting against Kyle Freeland.

Iglesias, for the second day in a row, is the top pick. Arraez and Witt tie for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 5, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Miranda owns a .324 BA this season, and profiles as a batter who should collect lots of hits. His walk rate and strikeout rate are both low, and he owns a .351 BABIP this season. His main problem in 2024 is staying healthy.

Ramos is day to day with a sore thumb.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.308, 0.735 — Jose Iglesias batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.332, 0.730 — Jose Miranda batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.292, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.299, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.286, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.298, 0.707 — Luis Garcia batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.285, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.281, 0.701 — Steven Kwan batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.295, 0.701 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.273, 0.697 — Amed Rosario batting against Aaron Nola.

Miranda ranks as the consensus top pick, with Iglesias the consensus double down choice. Iglesias and the Mets make a detour from the west coast to St. Louis to make up a rain out, then head to Colorado.

JoyceG owns the longest streak of the season and longest current streak at 49. The contestant needs eight more games for the jackpot!

Beat the Streak Advisor is another source of information.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit average versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Pirates and the Padres. Quantrill faced Arraez more than any other batter, and held the contact guru to a 6 for 26 with four strikeouts and one walk. Arraez has two extra-base hits against Quantrill, both triples.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.319, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.305, 0.729 — Jose Iglesias batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.309, 0.717 — Jose Miranda batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.283, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bryan Sammons.
  • 0.276, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Hunter Bigge.
  • 0.270, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Osvaldo Bido.
  • 0.273, 0.699 — Yainer Diaz batting against Hunter Bigge.
  • 0.264, 0.695 — Harold Ramirez batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.286, 0.694 — Donovan Solano batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.292, 0.687 — Cody Bellinger batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.296, 0.687 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Ryne Nelson.

The top of the list is similar, but the middle differs somewhat. The two systems agree on Arraez as the top pick, with your choice of Iglesias or Miranda as the double down.

There are 57 days left in the regular season, so this is the last day you can start a streak picking one player each day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Witt is hitting .508 over a 15 game hit streak, tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and Colton Cowser for the longest in the majors currently. Guerrero is hitting .509.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.326, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Noah Davis.
  • 0.347, 0.750 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.334, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.333, 0.737 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.320, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.321, 0.719 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.303, 0.715 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.292, 0.711 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.316, 0.706 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.307, 0.700 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.255, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Soriano.

Arraez pops to the top of this list after not starting against a tough (on him) lefty Friday. Witt is the consensus top pick, with Altuve and Arraez tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 2, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The NN yields these to projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Rockies at the Padres looks like a game that will generate a lot of hits. Arraez stands 0 for 5 against Gomber in their careers, but with no strikeouts. Bogaerts is 3 for 13, also with no Ks. Tovar recorded a three for five against Vasquez.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.347, 0.767 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.313, 0.721 — Amed Rosario batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.327, 0.713 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.310, 0.710 — Donovan Solano batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.284, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Shane Baz.
  • 0.283, 0.709 — Harold Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.260, 0.707 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.262, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tarik Skubal.
  • 0.275, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.306, 0.703 — Jackson Merrill batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.280, 0.703 — Yainer Diaz batting against Shane Baz.

The two system agree on Arraez at the top with Rosario and Tovar equal in the double down category. Gomber may be a tough lefty for Arraez, so watch to see if the Padres star gets the night off. Arraez, Witt, and Bogaerts are all working on double digit hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages versus starting pitchers:

MLB scheduled five games today, but some of the best hitters see action. Witt is a good choice most days, and he comes into this game with a thirteen game hit streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.327, 0.738 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.313, 0.722 — Steven Kwan batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.302, 0.704 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.296, 0.698 — Freddy Fermin batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.278, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.283, 0.677 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.275, 0.669 — Salvador Perez batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.253, 0.663 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.260, 0.663 — Alec Burleson batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.275, 0.663 — Kevin Pillar batting against Ryan Feltner.

The two systems agree on a Witt-Kwan double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!