Category Archives: Hit Streaks

July 31, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The NN yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Rengifo had a great season for the Angles getting on base, overall batting .306/.352/.424. He did suffer an injury, and is only batting .229/.289/.257 in July.

It looks like a good day for the Giants as Stripling allows a .355 BABIP this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

Rengifo and Altuve tie for the consensus top pick. Arraez went 0 for 6 against Kershaw in their careers, Altuve striking out twice.

Check out Beat the Streak Advisor, a site that aggregates information to help you make a pick.

At Beat the Streak, JoyceG now owns a 47 game streak. Ten more to go!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Cannon is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so Witt should have a great chance of putting the ball in play against the White Sox starter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.336, 0.742 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.332, 0.740 — Harold Ramirez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.324, 0.731 — Steven Kwan batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.306, 0.729 — Jose Iglesias batting against David Festa.
  • 0.297, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.245, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.312, 0.709 — Luis Garcia batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.290, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting against Gerrit Cole.
  • 0.307, 0.703 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.282, 0.700 — Yainer Diaz batting against Bailey Falter.

The two systems agree on the top three. Witt currently owns an eleven game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these to projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Nationals offense as Montgomery allows a ton of hits this season. His K rate dropped about two per 9 IP compared to his previous two season. Combine that with a .346 BABIP, and he’s allowed 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings.

Note that the Blue Jays and Orioles play a traditional doubleheader this afternoon, and Eflin is scheduled to pitch the matinee. Miranda is listed as day to day after taking a pitch to the helmet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.736 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.329, 0.734 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.283, 0.711 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.271, 0.710 — Jose Iglesias batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Luis Garcia batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.281, 0.700 — Jose Miranda batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.252, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Paul Skenes.
  • 0.286, 0.690 — Freddy Fermin batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.302, 0.687 — Juan Yepez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.287, 0.686 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.

Witt and Ramirez come in as the consensus double down picks. Witt is five for eight career against Flexen with a walk and no strikeouts. The Jrs sport ten game hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 28, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Ramirez picked up his hitting since moving to the Nationals, hitting .333 with a .380 OBP in seventy one PA. It looks like a good day for the Orioles as Vasquez allows a .342 BABIP this season.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.304, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Albert Suarez.
0.315, 0.728 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.295, 0.715 — Steven Kwan batting against Kolby Allard.
0.283, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Javier Assad.
0.289, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Joey Cantillo.
0.268, 0.711 — Jose Iglesias batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.278, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against River Ryan.
0.304, 0.705 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.313, 0.702 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.269, 0.694 — Jose Miranda batting against Alex Faedo.

It’s a very different list as O’Hearn is the only Orioles batter to reach the top ten. Ramirez comes out as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.

A quick shout out to JoyceG, who now has a 45 game streak at Beat the Streak. That is the best of the 2024 season and tied for 19th best in the history of the game. Only 12 more games for the big prize!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 27, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Carrasco is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so a Turner and Bohm double down looks pretty good today. Turner is 8 for 13 in his career against Carrasco with one walk and two strikeouts no walks and no strikeouts.

Note that the Rockies and Giants play a doubleheader on Saturday, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.338, 0.743 — Trea Turner batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.284, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.302, 0.733 — Jose Iglesias batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.298, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.288, 0.710 — Steven Kwan batting against Tyler Phillips.
  • 0.282, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Wrobleski.
  • 0.308, 0.709 — Alec Bohm batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.278, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.298, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.265, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Andrew Abbott.

The two systems are unanimous on Turner, with Iglesias the consensus double down pick. Both Arraez and Witt are working on short-term hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 26, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Witt is 16 for 23 since returning from the All-Star Break.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.344, 0.748 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.304, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.306, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.306, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.312, 0.723 — Steven Kwan batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.277, 0.719 — Jose Iglesias batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.300, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.308, 0.702 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.272, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.286, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.316, 0.697 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kyle Freeland.

Witt is the unanimous pick, with Kwan the consensus double down, although the four behind Witt on the NN list are all good choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like another good day for the Padres as they get to face Corbin. Arraez is just two for nine against him, including two Ks. Bogaerts is 3 for 5, Profar 3 for 10.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.364, 0.778 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.343, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.356, 0.736 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.263, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.319, 0.714 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.318, 0.709 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.293, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.304, 0.700 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.324, 0.699 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.288, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kenny Rosenberg.

There is decent agreement between the two systems today, with Arraez by far the best pick. Kwan and Rengifo tie for the consensus double down choice. Rengifo is one for eight since his return from the IL.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like the Red Sox hitters are good picks in Colorato. Blach owns a low K rate, a very low walk rate, and a .340 BABIP. Witt is 12 for 15 with five extra base hits in three games since returning from the All-Star Break.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • ‘0.317, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting against DJ Herz.
  • 0.351, 0.747 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.348, 0.736 — Jarren Duran batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.322, 0.733 — Steven Kwan batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.334, 0.732 — Harold Ramirez batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.346, 0.725 — Connor Wong batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.331, 0.721 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.332, 0.717 — Rafael Devers batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.328, 0.715 — Luis Garcia batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.334, 0.712 — Rob Refsnyder batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.282, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.

Arraez tops the list here, although he was just off the Log5 list. Witt and Duran, however, are easily the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Iglesias put the ball in play throughout his career with low walk and strikeout numbers. He combined that this season with a .405 BABIP, but in only 96 PA. Chirinos allowed a .363 BABIP this season in 25 innings. Note that the calculation will regress hit averages for both to the season mean, currently .218, but there is enough plate appearances both ways to get a high number. After regression, Chirinos’s 2024 hit average is .261, Iglesias is .289, so Log5 sees this matchup as very favorable to the hitter. The three year parameters are .255/.303, so anyway you look at it , Iglesias should mash against Chirinos. They have never faced each other.

Note that the Rays and Yankees play a 1 PM start, so if you want to double down on the dynamic duo, get your picks in early.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.344, 0.764 — Jose Iglesias batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.286, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.282, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yilber Diaz.
  • 0.304, 0.710 — Jarren Duran batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Hogan Harris.
  • 0.284, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.301, 0.698 — Connor Wong batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.284, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
  • 0.274, 0.691 — Yainer Diaz batting against Hogan Harris.

Iglesias does very well in this analysis also, and it the unanimous top pick. Duran comes out as the consensus double down choice. The two are working on short hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Turner owns a .393 BABIP this season, .342 for his career. Ozuna owns an eight game hit streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.310, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.318, 0.747 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.321, 0.737 — Trea Turner batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.275, 0.705 — Steven Kwan batting against Michael King.
  • 0.287, 0.696 — Alec Bohm batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.298, 0.695 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.261, 0.692 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.267, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.245, 0.691 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andrew Thorpe.
  • 0.250, 0.683 — Harold Ramirez batting against Andrew Abbott.

The NN flip the top three, putting Arraez at the top. So Arraez, Iglesias, and Turner all tie for the consensus pick of the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 20, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Diamondbacks, and Hendricks allowed a .326 BABIP this season. Ramos will be playing in Colorado with a .373 BABIP this season.

Note that the Cardinals and Braves play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

It’s quite a different list. It’s Witt both systems like, with Ramos edging out Turner for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 19, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

There are a number of unannounced starters on the MLB site, so I am using the FanGraphs probable pitchers here. Somehow, the Nationals and Pirates actually announced Perez and Corbin as the pitchers to start the second half. I do understand it, as the veterans starting today give all the youngsters one more day off.

Note that Rece Hinds makes the list after just seven games. While it helps that he is facing Patrick Corbin, Hinds’ 11 hits in 28 PA translate to a regressed .242 hit average for this year and .226 for the long term, both above the .218 MLB average.

All in all, it looks like a good day for the Phillies.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.361, 0.755 — Trea Turner batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.289, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.307, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.289, 0.714 — Steven Kwan batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.272, 0.713 — Jose Iglesias batting against Edward Cabrera.
  • 0.320, 0.712 — Alec Bohm batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.309, 0.696 — Bryce Harper batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.269, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Amed Rosario batting against Gerrit Cole.
  • 0.263, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.

As usual, the NN is less sensitive to bad pitching, although the top Phillies hitters still do well. Arraez is listed as day to day as he jammed his left thumb. Both systems put Trea Turner at the top, with Witt the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Ozuna is working on a five game hit streak during which he went 10 for 20. Ramos stands near the top of the active streak list with a nine game run.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.311, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.317, 0.727 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.265, 0.724 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.285, 0.714 — Jose Iglesias batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.292, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.328, 0.707 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.269, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Max Scherzer.
  • 0.290, 0.691 — Freddy Fermin batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.265, 0.690 — Harold Ramirez batting against Colin Rea.
  • 0.251, 0.690 — Steven Kwan batting against Ryan Pepiot.

While Kwan now qualifies for the AL lead in batting average, Turner is 45 plate appearances short of the NL lead. It might be another month or so until he can qualify.

Turner and Witt tie for the double down choices of the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Cubs and Cardinals play a doubleheader in St. Louis, so be careful picking from those games. You can do an all Ramirez double down today. It looks like a good day to pick from the Guardians as Littell owns an opposition .353 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.363, 0.757 — Steven Kwan batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.324, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.319, 0.731 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.257, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
  • 0.298, 0.717 — Harold Ramirez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.289, 0.707 — Jose Miranda batting against Hayden Birdsong.
  • 0.292, 0.700 — Luis Garcia batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.307, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Amed Rosario batting against Gavin Williams.
  • 0.260, 0.694 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kutter Crawford.

The two systems agree on Kwan and Turner on the double down. Witt has a ten-game hit streak going.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

I’ve never seen Ozuna at the top before, but given that Vasquez combines a low K rate with a high home run rate and a .356 BABIP, I’m not surprised a high average power hitter comes in first.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.315, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.309, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Hogan Harris.
  • 0.318, 0.722 — Amed Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.308, 0.716 — Jose Miranda batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.297, 0.714 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Cooper Criswell.
  • 0.277, 0.712 — Steven Kwan batting against Taj Bradley.
  • 0.289, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.325, 0.702 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.278, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.295, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting against Carlos Carrasco.

Arraez is the consensus top pick, with Rosario the double down choice. The NN weights the batter’s ability to get a hit more than the pitcher’s weakness in allowing hits.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Kwan slowed down a bit, batting .273/.314/.394 in his last sixteen games, but still managed to collect hits in twelve of those contests and post two three-hit games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.307, 0.730 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.275, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Landon Knack.
  • 0.293, 0.711 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.285, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.278, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.292, 0.687 — Andy Ibanez batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.287, 0.687 — Gio Urshela batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.280, 0.686 — Luis Garcia batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.262, 0.686 — Yainer Diaz batting against Roddery Munoz.

Note that the MLB hit average rose today to .218. MLB offense picked up recently, and a higher league hit averages makes everyone a tiny bit more likely to collect a hit.

Kwan stands as the unanimous top choice, while Iglesias comes in as the consensus double down pick. Note that Rosario is three for nine in his career against Cortes, one of the few matchups today with any kind of track record.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Today features two double headers, so be careful picking from the Royals at the Cardinals and the Twins at the White Sox. Luckily, with both Perez and Corbin on the mound, the Brewers and Mets give you plenty of choices for players who might get a hit. Yelich has not hit Perez well, however, going just one for eight in his career.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

Miranda gets a chance to extend his twelve game hit streak by two today. As offense heats up in the majors, we are starting to see more batters with probabilities over .700. Iglesias comes in as the consensus top pick with Witt as the double down choice. Pallente is scheduled to pitch the early game.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Kwan comes out well ahead of everyone else. Maeda allows a .316 BABIP this season, well above his .284 career mark.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.344, 0.743 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.277, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.316, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.310, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.292, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Bobby Miller.
  • 0.288, 0.709 — Jose Miranda batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.299, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.300, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.300, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Quinn Priester.
  • 0.281, 0.700 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.306, 0.700 — Christian Yelich batting against Quinn Priester.

Miranda extended his hit streak to twelve games on Monday.

Kwan is the unanimous top pick, while Altuve comes in as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

Miranda received a day off on Sunday, but wound up going one for one in a pinch-hitting appearance. That extended his hit streak to eleven games, hitting .579 in those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.307, 0.726 — Steven Kwan batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.312, 0.723 — Jose Miranda batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.303, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.278, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.297, 0.699 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.278, 0.671 — Carlos Correa batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.267, 0.671 — Starling Marte batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.280, 0.670 — CJ Abrams batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.249, 0.666 — Elias Diaz batting against Andrew Abbott.
  • 0.277, 0.663 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Chris Paddack.

The NN flips Kwan and Miranda, so they are the consensus double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a great day for the Padres as Nelson allowed a .313 BA this season on a .345 BABIP. He owns a low K rate, a low walk rate, and you can homer off him. This is the type of pitcher Arraez should punish. In their brief history, Arraez is one for six against Nelson, but put the ball in play each plate appearance.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.376, 0.782 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.305, 0.725 — Steven Kwan batting against Hayden Birdsong.
  • 0.304, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.300, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
  • 0.305, 0.709 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.322, 0.709 — Donovan Solano batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.327, 0.708 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.270, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.278, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.263, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Reynaldo Lopez.

Nice to see Miranda high on the list here after collecting 12 hits in twelve consecutive at bats. His hit average this season stands at .302.

Arraez is the unanimous and runaway top pick for Sunday. Kwan, Merrill, and Solano all tie for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 6, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Miranda set a Twins record with ten consecutive hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.317, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.325, 0.734 — Steven Kwan batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.324, 0.731 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.303, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.303, 0.705 — Freddy Fermin batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.704 — Jose Miranda batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.291, 0.704 — Amed Rosario batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.273, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.272, 0.698 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bailey Falter.

Altuve was hit on the hand by a pitch Friday night and is considered day to day. Kwan stands at the consensus top pick with Arraez the consensus double down choice. Witt at Coors is a pretty good bet, however.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 5, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Bobby Witt Jr.in Colorado should be exciting. Like his home in Kansas City, it’s a great triples park. Freeland owns a .353 BABIP this season, Witt at .352.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.335, 0.760 — Luis Arraez batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.340, 0.739 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.293, 0.719 — Steven Kwan batting against Spencer Bivens.
  • 0.288, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.274, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.326, 0.704 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.314, 0.701 — Alec Burleson batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.325, 0.700 — Kevin Newman batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.286, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting against Aaron Civale.

The two systems agree on Arraez and Witt as the double down choices. There is disagreement in the middle of the list, however. Turner hits Fried much better than predicted, with eleven hits in 34 PA for a hit average of .324. He did strike out eight times, however.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Cardinals as Perez allows a .352 BABIP this season, and is not known for his ability to K batters.

Note that the Mets at the Nationals kicks off at 11 AM EDT, so get your picks in early.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.275, 0.728 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Scherzer.
  • 0.294, 0.717 — Steven Kwan batting against Jared Shuster.
  • 0.305, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.289, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.286, 0.707 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.289, 0.699 — Luis Rengifo batting against JP Sears.
  • 0.286, 0.696 — Christian Yelich batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.290, 0.696 — Alec Bohm batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.279, 0.696 — William Contreras batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.261, 0.696 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jake Irvin.

The NN eliminates the Cardinals hitters. Connor Wong, with a seventeen game hit streak, does not make the list today. The NN pegs his probability of a hit at .680.

The two systems agree on Turner as the top pick, with Witt winning the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Wong owns the longest current hit streak in the majors, sixteen games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.321, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Jon Gray.
  • 0.315, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.304, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.304, 0.720 — Trea Turner batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.272, 0.705 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.299, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.291, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.299, 0.700 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.302, 0.700 — Connor Wong batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.286, 0.699 — Luis Rengifo batting against Joey Estes.

The two systems agree on the top four this morning, so Arraez and Altuve stand as your double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 2, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that part of Ohtani hitting for a high average this season is that he cut down on his strikeouts. For his career, Ohtani struck out in 25.6% of his PA. This season it’s down to 20.3%.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.741 — Steven Kwan batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.285, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.330, 0.727 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.328, 0.724 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.334, 0.720 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.315, 0.715 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.310, 0.715 — Elias Diaz batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.284, 0.711 — Jose Iglesias batting against DJ Herz.
  • 0.316, 0.709 — Christian Yelich batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.303, 0.709 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Dallas Keuchel.

Eovaldi is one of the few pitchers tough enough to knock Arraez off the top of the list. Kwan, like Ohtani, took his K rate lower this season, although it was already pretty low.

Kwan is the consensus top pick, with Witt the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Here are the Brewers batters. While his power isn’t all the way back, Yelich is hitting closer to his 2018-2019 peak than any recent season. Contreras fell off quite a bit from his early season surge.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.295, 0.719 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.288, 0.708 — Jose Altuve batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
  • 0.281, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.298, 0.706 — William Contreras batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.300, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.275, 0.689 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
  • 0.278, 0.688 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
  • 0.262, 0.679 — Elias Diaz batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.256, 0.673 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.281, 0.673 — Brice Turang batting against Austin Gomber.

The NN and I tend to disagree on Iglesias. He tends to bat way down in the batting order, meaning he’s unlikely to get the extra plate appearance that gives him a better chance of recording a hit. He is the consensus top pick, with Altuve, Contreras, and Yelich all tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 30, 2024

Reynolds Wrapped

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Bryan Reynolds wrapped up his 25 game hit streak today with an 0 four 4 in a 4-2 win over the Braves. Reynolds was on deck when Connor Joe made the final out for the Pirates in the top of the ninth inning. Unfortunately, Reynolds’ hot streak did not help the team all that much, as the Pirates wound up 13-12 during the streak which started on June 1, (and 14-12) for the month of June.

June 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Rosario fits the bill of someone who should rank high on these lists. He tends to produce a high BA with a relatively low OBP. Both his walk and strikeout rates are low, and he owns a high BABIP. On top of that, he is three for six against Corbin.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.763 — Luis Arraez batting against Josh Winckowski.
  • 0.334, 0.729 — Amed Rosario batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.333, 0.725 — Luis Rengifo batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.291, 0.721 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.301, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.315, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.316, 0.715 — Yandy Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.289, 0.712 — Jose Iglesias batting against Shawn Dubin.
  • 0.311, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.312, 0.697 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The lists are similar, with Kwan making the NN. Rosario stands as the consensus top pick, while Rengifo and Arraez tie for the double down pick. The weather is iffy in New England today, so keep an eye on the Padres playing in Boston if you decide to go with Arraez.

Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates extended his hit streak to 25 games on Saturday with a 1 for 5. The NN gives him a .652 probability of extending his streak. His hit average during the streak stands at an excellent .313. For the season, however, it’s only .250.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Cannon pitched 33 1/3 MLB innings with a very low walk rate and a not too high K rate. Teams so far put the ball in play against him, and he allowed a .343 BABIP. Note that his AA and AAA BABIPs were also high. Tovar Ks quite a bit but doesn’t walk much, and owns a .369 BABIP this season and a .340 mark for his career.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.282, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.290, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.276, 0.710 — Steven Kwan batting against Cole Ragans.
  • 0.291, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.280, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.275, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.278, 0.690 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.296, 0.690 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.272, 0.687 — Luis Rengifo batting against Reese Olson.
  • 0.272, 0.686 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tylor Megill.

Older Fenway faithful might be slightly reminded of Wade Boggs when they see Arraez at the plate, although Boggs was more likely to work a walk to go with all his hits. Arraez, Altuve, and Ramirez all tie for the consensus top pick. Ramirez’s high ranking has more to do with his two previous seasons. In 2024, his OBP and power fell off a cliff. His .255 hit average in 2024 is well above the league average of .217, but well below his .278 average since the start of 2022, The Rays chose to release him, and he hasn’t done much with the Nationals yet. He’s a good example of a poor hitter who might actually do well in extending a streak,

Bryan Reynolds extended his streak to 24 games, and Yandy Diaz is now at 20 games. Reynolds probability of extending his streak is at .636, Diaz at .679.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 28, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a day you can get a lot of mileage out of the Red Sox lineup. Vazquez allowed 68 hits in just 47 2/3 innings this season. He owns a low K rate of 5.9 per 9 IP, and a low walk rate of 2.27 per 9 IP. Opponents own a BABIP of .369 against him with lots of balls in play, plus he allowed ten home runs. Small sample size warnings are in order, but his numbers are regressed to the league averages to compensate for that.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.296, 0.740 — Luis Arraez batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.307, 0.730 — Steven Kwan batting against Alec Marsh.
  • 0.351, 0.726 — Connor Wong batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.334, 0.716 — Jarren Duran batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.301, 0.712 — Harold Ramirez batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.294, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.331, 0.706 — Rob Refsnyder batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.305, 0.705 — Luis Rengifo batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.288, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.279, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Kyle Tyler.

Arraez returns to the top of the list. He faced Pivetta six times before with a two for six, no walks and no Ks, so the matchup does result in balls in play.

Wong owns a thirteen game hit streak, but hasn’t played in a few days due to paternity leave. Bryan Reynolds tries to extend his 23 game hit streak. He projects to a .233 hit average against Charlie Morton with a .639 probability of extending the streak.

Wong stands as the consensus top pick, with Duran the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!