Category Archives: Hit Streaks

June 27, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Turner kept coming up in the top ten during his time on the illjured list. Since he returned, he collected hits in seven of the eight games he played.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.309, 0.730 — Steven Kwan batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.318, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.302, 0.706 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.279, 0.697 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.306, 0.695 — Jose Miranda batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.275, 0.689 — Luis Rengifo batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.289, 0.688 — Bryce Harper batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.292, 0.687 — Royce Lewis batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.272, 0.685 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Jon Gray.
  • 0.300, 0.682 — Carlos Correa batting against Jordan Montgomery.

Kwan and Turner tie for the consensus top pick, making them a good double down for the day. Of the players on both lists, Harper owns the longest current hit streak at eleven games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 26, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Braves and Cardinals play a doubleheader on Wednesday to make up for Tuesday’s postponement. Be careful if you pick from those games.

It looks like a good day for the Astros. Despite their struggles, the offense ranks last in the AL in strikeouts. They also are near the bottom in walks, so as a group they do put the ball in play.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.306, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against DJ Herz.
  • 0.321, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.330, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.319, 0.713 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.300, 0.706 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.309, 0.703 — Royce Lewis batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.288, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.283, 0.701 — Trea Turner batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.313, 0.698 — Jose Miranda batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.300, 0.696 — Adley Rutschman batting against Carlos Carrasco.

Arraez still leads the pack due to his great three-season hit average of .306, but he no longer blows away the field. Altuve and Kwan tie for the consensus top pick of the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that Witt’s .312 BA officially leads the AL, as Kwan still needs more plate appearances to qualify. Arraez is now fifth in the NL at .311.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.343, 0.750 — Steven Kwan batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.308, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.302, 0.710 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.297, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.290, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.296, 0.702 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.294, 0.701 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.290, 0.696 — Jarren Duran batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.291, 0.695 — Luis Rengifo batting against Mitch Spence.

Duran works on a 14-game hit streak, while Bryan Reynolds owns the longest current streak at 21 games. Arraez and Kwan make a high probability double down pair.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 24, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Arraez hasn’t faced Corbin much, but is two for six against him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.371, 0.782 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.330, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.294, 0.727 — Steven Kwan batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.313, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.318, 0.702 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.314, 0.693 — Jurickson Profar batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.305, 0.689 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.283, 0.689 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.302, 0.687 — Manny Machado batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.298, 0.687 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.

There’s good agreement today between the two lists, with Arraez and Turner as the double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Nationals get to face Freeland and his .439 BABIP at Coors Field. Everyone on Washington wants into the lineup today.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.338, 0.747 — Steven Kwan batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.286, 0.737 — Luis Arraez batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.309, 0.718 — Trea Turner batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.323, 0.714 — Luis Garcia batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.291, 0.696 — Alec Bohm batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.311, 0.694 — CJ Abrams batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.271, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Paul Skenes.
  • 0.304, 0.690 — Ildemaro Vargas batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.260, 0.689 — Harold Ramirez batting against Paul Skenes.
  • 0.296, 0.687 — Joey Meneses batting against Kyle Freeland.

The two systems agree on Kwan at the top, although he is 0 for 6 against Kikuchi. The matchup produced no strikeouts, however. Luis Garcia of the Nationals is the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:

The Brewers look good today as Vazquez owns both low strikeout and walk rates so batter put the ball in play against him. His opposition BABIP this season stands at .371.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.319, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
  • 0.320, 0.738 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.321, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Tommy Henry.
  • 0.342, 0.722 — William Contreras batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.296, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.344, 0.714 — Christian Yelich batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.293, 0.706 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.295, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jon Gray.
  • 0.284, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.301, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Tommy Henry.

Kwan lost his hit streak on a base running mistake Friday.

There is some agreement between the two systems at that the top, with a different ordering. The Borda count on Arraez, Contreras, Kwan, and Turner all evaluate to six, so take your double down pick from those four. Kwan is four for seven against Berrios with no strikeouts.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Phillies as Jordan Montgomery allowed 72 hits in 57 innings. He got a double whammy this season of a declining K rate leading to more balls in play, and the opposition producing a .348 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.302, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Colin Rea.
  • 0.327, 0.741 — Steven Kwan batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
  • 0.335, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.321, 0.713 — Alec Bohm batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.276, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.284, 0.698 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.313, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.291, 0.695 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.273, 0.690 — Gio Urshela batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.272, 0.688 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Grayson Rodriguez.

It’s nice to see Kwan coming into parity with Arraez. Picking the same player every single day only works if that player is set to break Joe DiMaggio‘s hit streak record. Arraez, in today’s game, represents a unique talent, and it looks like Kwan developed a similar skill. He is currently working on a fourteen game hit streak.

Kwan and Turner tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 20, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Dodgers as they play an afternoon game at Coors field. Most games are in the afternoon today to give an exclusive to the Rickwood Field game and what is turning out to be a memorial to Willie Mays. Get your picks in early.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.300, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.340, 0.739 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.350, 0.739 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.304, 0.728 — Steven Kwan batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.305, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.322, 0.708 — Luis Garcia batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.314, 0.707 — Royce Lewis batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.299, 0.706 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.300, 0.705 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.316, 0.695 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Littell.

Arraez comes out on top again, but today he’s not blowing away the field. San Diego does play the only late game of the day, so picking him runs the risk of him not starting and being unable to replace him.

Freeman and Ohtani tie for the consensus double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 19, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

After two weak cups of coffee, Ramos is Heliot on wheels in 2024. He owns a .414 BABIP with a .241 isolated power for the Giants. He’s the only person to make the list not facing Corbin or Feltner. Newman always put the ball in play, but with a .323 BABIP this season it’s paying off.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.274, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.311, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.321, 0.718 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.324, 0.710 — Kevin Newman batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.260, 0.707 — Steven Kwan batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.318, 0.706 — Randal Grichuk batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.277, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.303, 0.696 — Connor Wong batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.310, 0.696 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.280, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Medina.

Arraez’s slump combined with facing Suarez brought his probability down a bit but he’s still decently ahead of the Dodgers playing at Coors. Newman and Ohtani tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 18, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Freeman, with a seven-game hit streak, is 6 for 11 career against Gomber with no strikeouts.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.278, 0.719 — Steven Kwan batting against Bryce Miller.
  • 0.299, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.304, 0.711 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.295, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.290, 0.700 — Amed Rosario batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.279, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.298, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.273, 0.695 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Hogan Harris.

Jonathan Cannon ranks as one of the best names for a pitcher ever. So far, however, his high K rate failed to prevent hits.

The two systems disagree a bit today, leading to a three-way tie for the consensus top pick of Arraez, Freeman, and Ohtani. Given the Dodgers game takes place in Colorado, Freeman and Ohtani seem like a good double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 17, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Turner is supposed to come off the illjured list today. Vazquez allowed a .341 BABIP this season, so that’s why so many Phillies make the list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:

  • 0.342, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.334, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.320, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.270, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.287, 0.695 — Luis Rengifo batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
  • 0.292, 0.691 — Connor Wong batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.270, 0.687 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.260, 0.686 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jon Gray.
  • 0.270, 0.678 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Reese Olson.
  • 0.257, 0.675 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against James Paxton.

The two systems agree on Arraez and Turner as the double down picks, but you may want to wait a couple of games to see how Turner looks at the plate. Bohm is a great double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 16, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these high projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that the Athletics and Twins play a doubleheader Sunday to make up the game lost to rain on Saturday. Be careful which game you choose!

Kwan extended his hit streak to ten games on Saturday.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:

  • 0.316, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.312, 0.729 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.309, 0.709 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Daulton Jefferies.
  • 0.295, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.311, 0.704 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.301, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.277, 0.696 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.290, 0.695 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.266, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Hurston Waldrep.
  • 0.273, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Hurston Waldrep.

The two systems stand in agreement on Arreaz and Kwan as the double down picks. Here is what the NN sees:

  • 0.316, 0.7569 — Luis Arraez batting against Tylor Megill. Parameters: (0.206, 0.236, 0.305, 0.312, 0.215, 0.198)
  • 0.312, 0.7287 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios. Parameters: (0.215, 0.229, 0.340, 0.267, 0.215, 0.214)

The first two parameters are pitcher hit averages allowed this season and since 2022. The third and fourth parameters are the same for the batter. Number five is the hit average of the majors this season, and the sixth parameter is the three-year hit average of the park. The parameter that gets the highest weight is number four, the batter four year hit average. While Kwan dominates in this season, it’s not enough to overcome the huge three-year average of Arraez. Note that going into the 1941 season, Joe DiMaggio owned a three-season hit average of .313.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

Quintana struck out just six batters per nine innings this season, leading to 72 hits in 66 1/3 innings. Arraez’s hitting profile indicates he should take advantage of that type of pitcher. It also looks like a good day to hit for the Pirates.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.345, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.312, 0.720 — Steven Kwan batting against Bowden Francis.
  • 0.285, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.300, 0.696 — Luis Garcia batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.313, 0.694 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.273, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  • 0.278, 0.691 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.286, 0.690 — Bo Bichette batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.284, 0.690 — Luis Rengifo batting against Keaton Winn.
  • 0.314, 0.689 — Nick Gonzales batting against Ty Blach.

Both system agree on Arraez at the top, way ahead of everyone else. Kwan comes out as the consensus double down pick. Reynolds and Kwan are working on decent hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these high projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Kwan owns a huge lead in the MLB batting race over Witt, but Kwan has a ways to go before he would qualify for the title. Both batters own hit streaks during which they are producing offense at a high rate. Witt’s fourteen game streak is tied for the longest in the majors right now, and he’s hitting .426 in those games. Kwan is hitting .500 during his eight game streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:

  • 0.313, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.324, 0.729 — Steven Kwan batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.301, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Stone.
  • 0.321, 0.711 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.287, 0.698 — Luis Rengifo batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.296, 0.694 — Michael Harris II batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.282, 0.693 — Gio Urshela batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.290, 0.691 — Bo Bichette batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.298, 0.689 — Ozzie Albies batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.263, 0.684 — Jose Iglesias batting against Matt Waldron.

The two systems agree on the top four, but in a different order. Kwan stands as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Once again, Corbin makes everyone a good hitter. Note that both Urshela and Vierling are fairly high average, low OBP hitters, so they tend to post hit averages closer to their batting averages.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.340, 0.732 — Gio Urshela batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.296, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.285, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.318, 0.694 — Matt Vierling batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.267, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.303, 0.692 — Luis Garcia batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.293, 0.692 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.274, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.306, 0.684 — Andy Ibanez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.253, 0.678 — Jose Iglesias batting against Roddery Munoz.

The two system agree on Urshela as the best bet for extending a streak. The consensus double down pick goes to Vierling. The Nationals at the Tigers kicks off at 1 PM EDT, so get your picks in early if you go that route.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Looks like a good day to be an Ezequiel and a bad day to be an ‘ogan.

  • 0.304, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Hogan Harris.
  • 0.297, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.280, 0.709 — Steven Kwan batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.290, 0.696 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.279, 0.695 — Jose Iglesias batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.294, 0.691 — Connor Wong batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.279, 0.689 — Luis Rengifo batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.279, 0.688 — William Contreras batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Cody Poteet.
  • 0.272, 0.685 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.285, 0.685 — Jeremy Pena batting against Logan Webb.

The two system agree that you’ll get an A for doubling down with Arraez and Altuve. Note that their teammates, Fernando Tatis Jr.and Alex Bregman have the two longest current hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Rengifo lowered both his walk and strikeout rates this season and greatly raised his BABIP to become a high average hitter. Looking at STATCAST, he leveled his swing, and that led to a higher percentage of his balls in play going for line drives. He reinvented his swing to great success, and that appears to be an under-reported story.

Diaz is listed as day to day.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against JP Sears.
  • 0.310, 0.717 — Steven Kwan batting against Brent Suter.
  • 0.332, 0.716 — Luis Rengifo batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.302, 0.712 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.311, 0.710 — Amed Rosario batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.307, 0.701 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.296, 0.700 — William Contreras batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.306, 0.699 — Elias Diaz batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.258, 0.686 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.259, 0.684 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.

Arraez went two days in a row without a hit! He still remains the odds on favorite to pick up one today. Meanwhile, his teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. owns a sixteen game hit streak, the longest currently in the majors. Witt is third at eleven games.

Rengifo stands at the consensus top pick, with Kwan the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Elias Diaz and Tovar are the top two hitters on the Rockies this season. They will be playing on the road, where Diaz is still good but Tovar falls off a bit.

The NN produces this group of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:

  • 0.300, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.305, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.319, 0.707 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.319, 0.706 — Elias Diaz batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.299, 0.695 — Jeremy Pena batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.291, 0.692 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.277, 0.690 — William Contreras batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.256, 0.682 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.284, 0.680 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.278, 0.676 — Yainer Diaz batting against Kyle Harrison.

The two systems are in general agreement on the top ten, but not on the top two. Arraez and Altuve win out in this model due to their long-term ability to collect hits. All four of the top players own an average rank of 2.5, so pick your favorite double down combination from the group. Note that Witt is working on a ten-game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these predicted to top averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Orioles against Littell. Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson both hit him well in very limited plate appearances.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit in a game:

  • 0.319, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting against Scott McGough.
  • 0.345, 0.738 — Steven Kwan batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.300, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.311, 0.707 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.316, 0.701 — Adley Rutschman batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.296, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.317, 0.698 — Alec Burleson batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.275, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.284, 0.697 — Amed Rosario batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.285, 0.695 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.

Arraez and Kwan are a good double down on most days, and they tie for consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these high hit average predictions against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Padres against Nelson. He is a low K, low walk pitcher who allowed 64 hits in 48 innings this season and 232 hits in 210 1/3 innings for his career. Arraez is 0 for 3 against him, but Profar is five for 14 with a walk and a strikeout, which would be a .333 hit average.

Note that Machado is listed as day to day.

The NN produced hit list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.397, 0.796 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.315, 0.712 — William Contreras batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.324, 0.708 — Donovan Solano batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.307, 0.704 — Luis Rengifo batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.277, 0.699 — Steven Kwan batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.328, 0.697 — Jurickson Profar batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.319, 0.694 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.312, 0.691 — Alec Burleson batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.267, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.313, 0.686 — Masyn Winn batting against Ryan Feltner.

Arraez’s .796 probability of a hit in the game is the highest of the season. Solano is the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against starting pitchers:

Lopez is a new name on the list. He replaced Arraez at second base for the Marlins and is hitting .295/.324/.421 on the season. A high batting average with few walks leads to a great hit average, and Lopez is getting that done. The main difference with Arraez is that Lopez strikes out a lot more.

The NN generates this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.766 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.298, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.286, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.279, 0.702 — Steven Kwan batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.281, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.281, 0.689 — Luis Rengifo batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.285, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.291, 0.687 — Adley Rutschman batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.279, 0.683 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.275, 0.683 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Griffin Canning.

The two list agree on the top, with Arraez and Rosario the unanimous double down choices. Irvin allows a ton of balls in play, and Rosario doesn’t walk much, so this might be a very good matchup. It’s a very small sample, but Rosario is four for six against Irvin with three doubles, no walks, and no strikeouts.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 6, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against starting pitchers:

Arraez appears to be recovered from his Sunday injury as he went 3 for 4 on Wednesday to raise his BA to .337.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.313, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.281, 0.703 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.295, 0.689 — Adley Rutschman batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.271, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.258, 0.683 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.281, 0.683 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.249, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.281, 0.680 — Connor Wong batting against Jake Woodford.
  • 0.283, 0.676 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.265, 0.674 — Salvador Perez batting against Tanner Bibee.

Rutschman owns a nine-game hit streak, currently the third longest active streak in the majors. Kwan is seven for 18, .389, with two walks, a hit by pitch, and one K against Singer. Kwan puts the ball in play against Singer.

Arraez is the unanimous top choice, while Rutschman comes in as the consensus double down pick. Rutschman owns an 8 for 20 with four walks and three strikeouts against Kikuchi. Note that the Orioles and Blue Jays play early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 5, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

It’s a good day to be on the Mets or the Astros as they face pitchers with high hit rates. Over the years of Beat the Streak picks, Marte and Iglesias have often come up in the top ten, as both are capable of produce relatively high BA with relatively low OBPs.

The NN generates this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.281, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Soriano.
  • 0.323, 0.720 — Jose Iglesias batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.316, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.325, 0.709 — Starling Marte batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.314, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.289, 0.705 — Amed Rosario batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.279, 0.704 — Harold Ramirez batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.281, 0.703 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.305, 0.700 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.316, 0.700 — J.D. Martinez batting against Patrick Corbin.

Facing Corbin and Mikolas is not enough to dislodge Arraez from the top slot. He did play on Tuesday after his Sunday injury, but ended his hit streak.

Iglesias stands as the consensus top pick, with Marte the double down choice. Marte does hit Corbin well, but with a high K rate.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top estimates of hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Padres list Arraez as day to day after his shoulder injury on Sunday, so the top picks go out to eleven just in case Arraez can’t play. He is working on an eight-game hit streak, as is Jake Fraley.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.335, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.297, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.271, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.288, 0.691 — Jeremy Pena batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.260, 0.691 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.283, 0.691 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.283, 0.691 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.298, 0.690 — Jake Fraley batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.260, 0.683 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.263, 0.683 — Amed Rosario batting against Jesus Luzardo.

Arraez continues to post high probabilities and gets the unanimous number one pick. Altuve and Contreras tie for the double down choice. Those two would be the top choices if Arraez can’t play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log 5 Method yields these top batter versus pitcher hit average predictions:

It looks like a good day for the Giants as Nelson allowed 58 hits in 40 1/3 innings. He is a low walk, low K pitcher so plenty of balls get put in play against him. Estrada is listed as day to day, so make sure he is playing if you make that pick. Note that in their few appearances against Nelson, Conforto hit him better than Estrada.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.286, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.291, 0.694 — Luis Rengifo batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.271, 0.693 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.314, 0.691 — Thairo Estrada batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.301, 0.691 — Adley Rutschman batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.295, 0.685 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.294, 0.682 — Jake Fraley batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.265, 0.681 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.283, 0.680 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.290, 0.679 — Jordan Westburg batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.311, 0.679 — Patrick Bailey batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Jeremy Pena batting against Kyle Gibson.

Once again, Arraez is the only batter with a very high probability of a hit. Estrada comes out as the consensus top pick, with Rutschman the consensus double down choice. Note that Arraez left the game on Sunday with an injury, but says he’s okay.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 2, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against the starting pitcher:

Wong decreased his K percentage from a very high 33.3% in 2023 to 18.9% this season, a reasonable number for the era. He also upped his already high BABIP to .381. The combination led to a 100 point rise in his batting average.

Seager owns a fourteen game hit streak, tied with Kevin Pillar for the current high streak in the majors.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.302, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Cole Ragans.
  • 0.287, 0.702 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.278, 0.700 — Harold Ramirez batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.284, 0.699 — Steven Kwan batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.310, 0.698 — Connor Wong batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.296, 0.696 — Luis Garcia batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.273, 0.696 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.281, 0.695 — Mookie Betts batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.301, 0.694 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.280, 0.694 — Alec Bohm batting against Lance Lynn.

Arraez stands as the only player with superb hit averages both short and long term. He stands at .318 hit year and .316 since the start of 2022. He both walks and strikes out very little, and owns a .362 BABIP for the second season in a row. He is the consensus top pick, with Wong the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top batter versus pitcher hit average estimates:

Opponents hit Musgrove hard this season, as he allowed a .305/.374/.521 slash line. The BABIP against him stands at .348 versus a career mark of .294. He allowed ten home runs in 2024, matching his total of 2023. Perez and Witt stand well equipped to take advantage of that kind of pitcher.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.301, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting against Alec Marsh.
  • 0.315, 0.711 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.315, 0.707 — Salvador Perez batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.294, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.279, 0.694 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.276, 0.691 — Mookie Betts batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.264, 0.687 — Jose Altuve batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.262, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.273, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.269, 0.683 — Gio Urshela batting against Cooper Criswell.

Kwan returned from the illjured list on Friday and posted a three for four. Arraez went four for five on Friday to raise his league leading BA to .342. Arraez, Perez, and Witt are all tied for the consensus top pick, and since they are playing against each other, you have a one-stop game for your double down. Perez is three for six against Musgrove with no strikeouts or walks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 31, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Guardians get to celebrate Corbin day. Ramirez owns a low strikeout rate for his career, and this season he walks less as well. He puts plenty of balls in play, and lately they’ve been finding holes.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.323, 0.762 — Luis Arraez batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.319, 0.713 — Alec Bohm batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.297, 0.705 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.325, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.293, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.290, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.279, 0.694 — Freddie Freeman batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.317, 0.692 — Andres Gimenez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.285, 0.690 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.290, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting against Pablo Lopez.

Arraez is four for thirteen against Wacha, .308, with two home runs! He also struck out twice, so Arraez is good against Wacha, but in an atypical way for the hitter.

Anthony Volpe saw his hit streak end on Thursday, putting Masyn Winn at 18 and J.T. Realmuto at 17 on top of the list of longest current streaks.

Arraez stands as the consensus top pick with Bohm and Ramirez tied for the consensus double down choice.

May 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day for the Royals against Paddack. He gave up a high BABIP in each of the last three seasons.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.306, 0.720 — Harold Ramirez batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.332, 0.719 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.322, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.303, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.294, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.290, 0.688 — Connor Wong batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.282, 0.687 — Yandy Diaz batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.267, 0.686 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.264, 0.682 — Luis Rengifo batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.287, 0.680 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Spencer Arrighetti.

Note that three batters not on the list currently work on long hit streaks. Anthony Volpe of the Yankees extended his streak to 21 games on Wednesday, with Masyn Winn right behind him at 18 and J.T. Realmuto at 17. Note that all of them are hitting for power during their streaks.

Perez is the consensus top pick, with Ramirez the consensus double down choice.

May 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day for the Rangers. Duran owns a high K rate, but that comes with a .341 career BABIP, .375 this season.

Note that the Pirates and Tigers play a doubleheader in Detroit today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.762 — Luis Arraez batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.323, 0.703 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.290, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.290, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.303, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.305, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.305, 0.699 — Elias Diaz batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.316, 0.698 — Corey Seager batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.288, 0.698 — Shohei Ohtani batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.277, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Joey Estes.

Arraez and Duran tie for the consensus top pick. Note that Arraez continues to be off the chart when it comes to probability. This is the 11th day in a row with him in the top slot.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!