Category Archives: Awards

September 1, 2024

Players of the Month

Once again, Aaron Judge blows away the field in August. He posted a .389/.530/.856 slash line in 117 plate appearances. He led in OBP by 49 points. He led in slugging percentage by 156 points. Oneil Cruz tied him in batting average, but was not close in the other categories.

If Judge didn’t exist, it would be a very tough choice as a number of players posted great months. No one came close to Judge, who is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for August 2024. Judge was also player of the month in June and May.

Eleven pitchers posted sub 2.00 ERAs in August at the 26 innings level, led by Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays. In five starts and one relief appearance he allowed 10 hits, four walks, and one hit batter in 34 1/3 innings. In three of the five starts he pitched at least seven innings with one hit allowed. All that was good for a 4-1 record and an ERA of 1.05. He ranked fourth in walks per 9 IP. It’s tough to find someone who clearly beat those numbers. Bryan Woo pitched 40 1/3 innings, the most in the month, but with a 2.23 ERA and a low K rate. Spencer Arrighetti struck out 13.08 batters per 9IP, with a 1.95 ERA, but in fewer innings than Francis. Chris Sale and Osvaldo Bido did not allow a home run.

Sale’s three true outcomes are all very good. He posted a 2.05 ERA, a run higher than Francis, and in fewer innings. My feeling is that Sale places in this race. There is a very good case for Framber Valdez as well, but just not quite at the top level

Bowden Francis wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for August 2024.

August 1, 2024

Players of the Month

Bobby Witt Jr. blows away the competition for July player of the month. I like to start with on base percentage, and Witt comes in first with a .520 mark. That’s decently far ahead of Aaron Judge at .482, but the components of Witt’s OBP separate the two further. Witt collected 44 hits, six walks, and two hit by pitches, while Judge walked a ton, 27 hits, 25 walks, and two HBP. Witt’s 44 hits gave him a .489 BA for the month, almost 100 points ahead of Xavier Edwards. It’s tough to hit .400 for a month; .489 is unreal. Finally, collected 16 extra-base hits for an .833 slugging percentage. That topped the majors as well, although he was one of four hitters slugging .800 for the month. Note that Brent Rooker, with a .391/.461/.828 slash line, eleven homers, 30 RBI and 21 runs scored makes a pretty good case, but doesn’t quite succeed. Bobby Witt Jr. is the Baseball Musings Player of the Month for July 2024.

I find choosing a pitcher of the month more difficult. Hunter Greene posted a 0.33 ERA, his only run allowed coming on a home run. He only made four starts and pitched 27 innings. George Kirby didn’t allow a home run in 36 2/3 innings. His 1-2 record was undeserved given his 2.21 ERA. He made six starts, however, not going as deep in games as Greene. The top three in K per 9 IP all posted terrible ERAs.

So I think I have take the low innings for what they are worth and look at the three leaders in ERA, Greene, Taj Bradley, and Paul Skenes. Skenes wins strikeout and walk rate, Bradley pitched the most innings at 31. Greene’s ERA was so low, however, due his only allowing nine hits. None of those hits came with a man on base. Twenty six at bats, one walk, three hit batters, only six strikeouts. It seems like batters decided to attack Greene with men on base, and couldn’t make decent contact.

Hunter Greene wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for July 2024.

June 30, 2024

Players of the Month

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees both reached .500 OBPs in June of 2024. Judge led with a .514 mark, Soto came in right on .500. Soto did not come close to Judge in anything else. Judge led the majors in slugging percentage at .864, 150 points ahead of Bryce Harper of the Phillies. Anthony Santander of the Orioles (13) and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers (12) each posted more home runs than Judge, but Judge beat their 16 extra-base hits each with 17 of his own. Finally, Judge hit a clean .409 for the month, topping Carlos Correa by 21points.

Judge’s 37 RBI beat Santander by 11.

This was an easy pick, as Aaron Judge win the two months in a row and takes home the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month Award for June 2024.

On the pitching side, Hunter Brown of the Astros led the majors in ERA with a 1.16 mark and great three-true outcomes. He also posted a 4-0 record in five starts and 31 innings. He is not a slam dunk for the award, however. Logan Gilbert of the Mariners posted a 1.51 ERA, but walked just one batter in 35 2/3 innings. Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies finished with a 1.64 ERA, did not allow a home run, and pitched a shutout.

Despite his 1-1 record, I think the award should go to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. His ERA came in at 1.91, but he had by far the best combination of three true outcomes. He topped the majors in K per 9 at 13.38. Along with the K’s, his walk rate was just 1.43 per 9 IP and he allowed one home run in 37 2/3 innings. His innings were tied for third.

Congratulations to Garrett Crochet on winning the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2024!

June 1, 2024

Players of the Month

May 2024 offered little competition to Aaron Judge of the Yankees. LaMonte Wade of the Giants tied Judge for highest OBP with a .488, mark, but did so in many fewer plate appearances. In terms of power, Judge left everyone in the dust with a .928 slugging percentage. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians came in second at .686. (In crew, this is called winning by the curvature of the earth.) Although Judge failed to hit a triple, he led in both doubles and home runs. Just to top it all off, his BA of .371 was second to Luis Arraez of the Padres at .389. His 26 extra-base hits tied Ty Cobb for most in May since 1920 (Cobb did it in 1921). He is also the 21st player to have at least 26 EXBH in any month since 1920, and list is full of Hall of Famers, including Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, and Babe Ruth of the Yankees.

Aaron Judge is easily the Baseball Musings Offensive Players of the Month for May 2024.

Five pitchers with at least 25 IP in May posted ERAs below 1.00. Chris Sale of the Braves led that group with a 0.56 ERA. He also led that group in K per 9 at 12.7, walks per 9 at 0.56, and did not allow a home run. His strikeouts almost doubled his hits allowed, 45 to 23. The K rate led the majors, only George Kirby of the Mariners posted a lower walk rate, and only Tanner Houck of the Red Sox pitched more innings without allowing a home run.

Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians and Andres Munoz of the Mariners each pitched extremely well as closers, but given the innings difference with Sale, it’s tough to put them at the top of the list.

Another easy choice, Chris Sale takes home the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2024!

May 1, 2024

Players of the Month

Alec Bohm of the Phillies led the majors in both OBP and Batting Average for the month of April. He finished third in slugging percentage behind Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers and Marcell Ozuna of the Braves. Note the main difference in Ohtani’s favor is his seven home runs to Bohm’s four. They both collect twelve doubles, the most in April, and one triple.

Of the top home run hitters in the month, only Ozuna hit on all cylinders. Notice that the narrative about Mike Trout was wrong; he was not having a great season. Trout’s April looks like a Ken Phelps season, not the best hitter in the league.

Bohm and Ozuna tied for the league lead in RBI as well.

Given all that, Alec Bohm wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for April 2024!

On the pitching side, Ranger Suarez of the Phillies makes a very strong case for the honor just looking at the ERA leaderboard. Suarez wound up with a 0.75 ERA for the month, helping him to five wins in five starts with a complete game. He allowed just 18 hits in 36 innings, two home runs, four walks, and a hit batter. Shota Imanaga posted slightly better strikeout and walk rates, but did so in eight fewer innings. Going deep in games is tough with the current pitching strategies. Suarez finished 3 1/3 innings behind the leader in IP for the month, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. The seven pitchers ahead of Suarez all made six starts to Suarez’s five. Of the pitchers with six starts, Houck posted a fantastic month, with excellent three true outcomes.

Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals collected ten saves with miniscule offense allowed. He did take two losses, however.

I like Suarez, however, for his ability to go deep in games, and his ability to stop offense. Ranger Suarez wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month Award for April 2024.

A Phillies sweep!

April 28, 2024

Glasnow and Suarez

Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers and Rangers Suarez of the Phillies find themselves locked in a close race for the NL Cy Young Award after each pitched an outstanding game on Saturday. The four Cy Young Trackers here do not try to establish value, they are useful in as an indication how sports writers vote.

Suarez leads in three of the indicators, both Tom Tango versions of Cy Young points and the Bill James Season Score. Glasnow leads in Bill James Cy Young Points. The main difference there is the position of the team in the standings counts, and the Dodgers are in first place while the Phillies sit in second.

Both pitchers go deep into games compared to the league. Both own five wins. Suarez is better at preventing runs, but Glasnow is better at blowing away batters. If they stay on rotation for a while, it will be fun to see how this races changes over time.

December 15, 2023

Doby Honored

Larry Doby posthumously received the Congressional Gold Medal on the 100th anniversary of his birth. Doby became the second African American player in the majors and the first in the American League:

“Larry Doby will forever be remembered as a pioneer who demonstrated great character and courage throughout his life,” Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. “His legacy as a trailblazing player and manager endures to this day, and he will always remain one of the great heroes that our national pastime and nation have ever known.”
ESPN.com

Doby beat Jackie Robinson to a World Series title, winning his in 1948 with the Indians.

November 16, 2023

Unanimous Seasons

2 Replies

Both Shohei Ohtani of the Angels and Ronald Acuna Jr.of the Braves win their league MVP awards unanimously.

Ohtani is the first player to win the award unanimously twice:

This election marks the 12th time the AL MVP Award winner was a unanimous choice, and the second time for Ohtani, who was also a unanimous MVP in 2021. He is the first player to win the MVP Award unanimously more than once.

Other unanimous winners of the AL award: Hank Greenberg (1935), Al Rosen (1953), Mickey Mantle (1956), Frank Robinson (1966), Denny McLain (1968), Reggie Jackson (1973), Jose Canseco (1988), Frank Thomas (1993), Ken Griffey Jr. (1997) and Mike Trout (2014). There have been eight unanimous winners in the National League: Orlando Cepeda (1967), Mike Schmidt (1980), Jeff Bagwell (1994), Ken Caminiti (1996), Barry Bonds (2002), Albert Pujols (2009), Bryce Harper (2015) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (2023).
BBWAA.com

Ohtani posted a four rWAR as a pitcher and a six rWAR as a batter. As batter he led the AL in home runs, slugging percentage, and on-base average. That’s a great MVP combination. He did not qualify for any pitching average leader boards, but Pi like ERA of 3.14 ranked eighth in the majors among pitchers with at least 132 innings.

Acuna’s 2023 batting line is covered with bolded numbers. He led the majors in runs, hits, stolen bases, and OBP. While he did not lead any of the long-hit categories, he did lead the majors in total bases. He also led the NL in plate appearances and at bats.

Congratulations to both players on great seasons and well deserved awards!

Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers finished second and third respectively. There are a number of young up and coming players in the AL top ten.

The NL vote had Mookie Betts winning second place unanimously, with the interchangeable Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson finishing third and fourth respectively.

In the end, five of the six big player award finished in unanimous outcomes. Only Blake Snell‘s NL Cy Young showed any dissent. I’m not sure if this was just a bit of a freak year, or if more and more writers are looking at the same numbers an drawing the same conclusions.

November 15, 2023

Blake’s Two

Blake Snell of the Padres takes home the NL Cy Young Award for 2023. He joins a long list of pitchers who won in both leagues:

Padres’ left-hander Blake Snell, a previous winner in the American League with the Rays in 2018, won the National League Cy Young Award. He joined the company of Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay as Cy Young Award winners in both leagues.
BBWAA.com

All of those pitchers had Hall of Fame worthy careers. I suspect Snell will be the first double league winner not to be considered for the Hall. While his two Cy Young seasons were great, he’s been just okay otherwise. Maybe he’ll go on a tear in the 30s and wind up looking a lot better when he retires.

He led the majors in ERA with a 2.25 mark. He allowed just 5.8 hits per 9 IP, but walked a ton of batters. That may be why he was not a unanimous choice. His 6 rWAR did lead the NL among pitchers.

The interesting part of the voting came down to third and fourth place with Zac Gallen edging out Spencer Strider of the Braves. Strider received more high votes (1 or 2), but Gallen appeared on more ballots finishing four points better. Strider would be an old-school candidate as he collected 20 wins. New schoolers would note that his ERA was about a run higher than his FIP, so maybe his defense let him down. There were reasons for people on both side of the wins divide to vote for Strider, and I’m a bit surprised he didn’t appear on more ballots.

November 15, 2023

King Cole

Gerrit Cole of the Yankees takes home the AL Cy Young Award for 2023. He swept the first place votes:

Yankees’ right-hander Gerrit Cole unanimously won the American League MVP Award, marking the 11th time an AL pitcher has swept the voting.
BBWAA.com

Eleven times but only seven players, as Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander won unanimously twice.

Cole was an easy choice as his 7.4 rWAR led the majors among pitchers. He posted the best ERA with the most innings in the AL, a combination that is tough to beat, tossing two shutouts along the way. His strikeout rate dropped this season, but despite that he owned the lowest hits per nine in the AL. It was a truly superlative season for this era. Congratulations to Cole on the much deserved award!

November 14, 2023

Dr. Hyde

Brandon Hyde of the Orioles won the AL Manager of the Year Award for 2023. In Hyde’s case, this might very well be a multiyear award, as he and the front office leadership built a team from scratch.

It’s probably why he beat Bruce Bochy for the award. The Rangers brought in Bochy to take a team ready to compete to the title. Hyde nurtured the Orioles to this point. Sometimes a team needs a different leader to take them from developing to winning. Hyde accomplished both, and that’s a big reason he won.

November 14, 2023

If the Schu Fits

Skipper Skip Schumaker of the Marlins wins the NL Manager of the Year Award for 2023.

This election marks the seventh time in the NL and ninth time overall that the award went to someone who was in his first full season as a major league manager. The other first-year NL winners were the Astros’ Hal Lanier (1986), the Giants’ Dusty Baker (1993), the Marlins’ Joe Girardi (2006), the Nationals’ Matt Williams (2014), the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts (2016) and the Diamondbacks’ Torey Lovullo (2017). There have been two first-year winners in the American League, the Rangers’ Jeff Banister (2015) and the Twins’ Rocco Baldelli (2019). 

Schumaker is the third Marlins manager honored, joining Jack McKeon (2003) and Don Mattingly (2020).
BBWAA.com

It seems that making the playoffs with the Marlins is a ticket to the award. Only Jim Leyland was left off. Congratulations to Shumaker on the honor!

The article notes how often Craig Counsell came in second in recent years. There is an old British sitcom called Chef! In one episode, the chef goes to France for a cooking competition. At the end, they are announcing the award for individual dishes, and the chef keeps coming in second. He is a bit disappointed, but because all of his dishes were excellent, he wins the overall prize for the competition! That’s Counsell’s contract.

November 13, 2023

Rookie Sweeps

Both Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks win the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award for their respective leagues. Both won with unanimous first place votes, the fifth time that happened in the history of the award.

Henderson gives Baltimore its first ROY in 34 years. The Orioles posted a good ten year run of rookies from 1973 to 1982 with Al Bumbry, Eddie Murray, and Cal Ripken taking home the award in that time frame.

Henderson posted a 4.6 fWAR, based mostly on his power. He collect 77 singles and 66 extra-base hits. He did that while playing good defense at shortstop. He was the easy pick.

Carroll gave the Diamondbacks their first ROY period. All thirty teams produced a ROY now. Carroll produced plenty of power, but sprayed singles all over the park as well, giving him a high BA and OBP. His BA was helped by striking out about 20% less than Henderson. Carroll also did a fantastic job stealing bases, going 54 for 59 when attempting to thievery. Again, Corbin was an easy choice.

Congratulations to both deserving recipients!

November 12, 2023

Stenson Award

Michael Trautwein of the Reds organization wins the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award in the Arizona Fall League. In 2003, Criminals car-jacked, then murdered Stenson while he played in the AFL. He too, was a member of the Reds organization and played briefly at the major league level in 2003.

Trautwein, a catcher and outfielder, hit for a low average but drew a decent number of walks and knocked out a few extra-base hits, so his .217 BA represents just a small percentage of his value. In his minor league career, however, the OBP is there but not the power.

November 11, 2023

Why Draft Shortstops

Fernando Tatis Jr.won the Platinum Glove award for 2023 as the best defender in the National League:

Tatis’ transition from shortstop to right field is well documented. The level at which he played a new position at the major league level is astounding. He was second in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved at 27. Only Toronto’s Daulton Varsho had more. Seeing as he is in the American League, that means Tatis has the highest Defensive Runs Saved of any National League defender at any position. Which makes sense, now that he has been named the Platinum fielder of the NL.

He resided in the 94th percentile for Outs Above Average and the 99th percentile for arm strength. Among right fielders specifically, he led with 11 Outs Above Average. Second place had six. Tatis was also tied for the third-most outfield assists with 12. Teams quickly learned that they should not run on Tatis’ arm.
EastVillageTimes.com

Shortstops who can hit can always be moved to another position if they, like Tatis, find that injuries limit their ability at the top defensive position behind the pitcher. The defense will often translate to the easier position.

I still believe the Yankees big mistake 20 years ago was keeping Derek Jeter at shortstop when they acquired Alex Rodriguez. Bernie Williams was in decline, and Jeter played shortstop poorly relative to the league. Jeter was fantastic at running down play balls, however. So a move of Williams to DH, Jeter to centerfield, and Rodriguez to short would have improved the team at two defensive positions while keeping the bats in the lineup.

It’s good that San Diego realized this early, and are reaping the defensive benefits of Tatis in the outfield, while persevering his ability to hit by limiting injuries.

November 6, 2023

Gold Gloves

Rawlings announced the Gold Gloves awards Sunday night. There were a number of first-time winners:

First-time AL winners included Texas catcher Jonah Heim, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and right fielder Adolis García, Toronto pitcher José Berríos, Houston utilityman Mauricio Dubón and Volpe.

In the NL, first-time winners included San Diego right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and utilityman Ha-Seong Kim, Philadelphia pitcher Zack Wheeler, Arizona catcher Gabriel Moreno, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, Pittsburgh third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and Doyle.
ESPN.com

While managers and coaches still vote for players, 25% of the score comes from defensive metrics. That, and coaches being more aware of the metrics, seems to have stopped the constant repeats at positions based on reputation. Nolan Arenado‘s streak ended this season. The Rangers played outstanding defense as a team, so it’s nice to see three of their fielders taking home trophies.

November 1, 2023

Seager MVP

Corey Seager wins the World Series MVP, his second time taking home the Willie Mays trophy. Seager hits .286/.375/.762. He collect six hits, four of them for extra-bases, three of those home runs. He broke up the no-hitter tonight, and scored the first run of the game, the only run the Rangers would need.

October 30, 2023

Judging All Rise

Aaron Judge won the 2023 Roberto Clemente Award for his work with the All Rise Foundation:

His foundation hosted baseball camps in both states and has awarded grants supporting Bridge2College, NYC Autism Charter Schools, Tourette Association of America, the Edward C. Merlo Institute of Environmental Technology, the Resiliency Center of Fresno and the Birch Family Services. The foundation supported students to attend California leadership conferences.

Judge partnered with initiatives to encourage positive social media behavior and to recognize health care workers during the coronavirus pandemic.
ESPN.com

Congratulations to they Yankees slugger!

October 24, 2023

Garcia MVP

I’m so old I can no longer stay up to see who wins the LCS MVP. There’s no surprise in the AL as it goes to Adolis Garcia of Texas:

García, named MVP of the ALCS, capped off Game 7 of the series against cross-state rival Houston with a bang. Two homers, five RBI and a pennant were all she wrote for El Bombi as the Rangers secured the 11-4 win on Monday night to advance to their third Fall Classic in franchise history.
MSN.com

The Rangers put up some gaudy slugging percentages against Houston, but Garcia slugged over .400 points better than anyone else on the team with a 1.143 mark. He did not draw a walk in the series, but he was hit by a pitch.

It looks like admiring a shot that hit the wall in the outfield for a single didn’t deter the voters from picking Garcia.

October 4, 2023

Brush with Greatness

Three scientists won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for work on quantum dots:

Moungi Bawendi of MIT, Louis Brus of Columbia University and Alexei Ekimov of Nanocrystals Technology Inc. were honored for their work with the nanoparticles, which are just a few atoms in diameter and “have unique properties and now spread their light from television screens and LED lamps,” according to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which announced the award in Stockholm.
LATimes.com

Bawendi got stuck with me as a lab partner in one of our chemistry classes in college. He was brilliant then, and I’m not surprised to see him win this honor. Congratulations to all on their remarkable achievement!

October 1, 2023

Players of the Month

September 2023 saw a number of great performances, making the choice of an offensive best difficult. Nolan Jones of the Rockies posted the highest OBP of the month, a .460 mark, along with an excellent .631 slugging percentage on five doubles, three triples, and six home runs. Juan Soto of the Padres came close in OBP, but slugged .711 as he hit six doubles and ten home runs. He also led the majors in RBI with 29.

Xander Bogaerts of the Padres gave Soto the opportunity to drive in those runs. He led the majors in batting average with a .416 mark, helping him to a .451 OBP. It’s very tough to hit .400 in a month. He also slugged .673 and scored 25 runs.

Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr.of the Braves each hit eleven home runs, tops in the majors. Acuna had a slightly higher slugging percentage, but Olson wins the paring with a much higher OBP for the month, .447 to .407.

I am going with Bogaerts here. He did everything well, and set up the rest of the Padres lineup for success. Xander Bogarts wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for September, 2023.

On the pitching side, the two leading Cy Young Award candidates, Blake Snell of the Padres and Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, posted incredible numbers. Snell led the majors in ERA with a 0.58 mark, Cole finished third at 1.03. Neither allowed home run. Snell blew batters away with 11.9 K per nine IP, but walked a ton at 4.1 per nine IP. Cole’s strikeout rate was good but not great at 8.7 per 9 IP, but walked just 0.8 per nine IP. Cole also pitched four more innings.

In between them sits Tarik Skubal of the Tigers 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA in 30 innings. All of his three-true outcomes are great, although he did allow a home run. On top of that, Michael King of the Yankees isn’t that far behind Cole with a 1.30 ERA, although he pitched just 27 2/3 innings.

As starters pitch less and less I do like to see more innings in a month as more innings means luck is less of a factor. Cole did throw a complete game, and his TTOs are a bit better overall than Snell’s. It’s a tough call, but Gerrit Cole wins the Baseball Musings pitcher of the Month for September 2023.

September 27, 2023

Betts Versus Acuna

Tom Tango posted this about the NL MVP race between Ronald Acuna and Mookie Betts:

They really are in reality close, but the old-school look at the data is still trumping the new-school.

This isn't 1983, but we're probably at 2003 in this discussion, if the view is Acuna at 3:1 over Betts. https://t.co/x1YBNspKlA
— Tangotiger ? (@tangotiger) September 26, 2023

Sometimes feats trump statistics. A good example of this happened in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the MVP. Mike Trout beat him in rWAR 10.5 to 7.1 and in fWAR 10.1 to 7.3. Cabrera, however, won the Triple Crown, a feat that many thought we would never see again.

Today, Betts leads Acuna 8.3 to 8.1 in rWAR and 8.2 to 8.0 in fWAR. It’s really close, and one can make very good arguments for either player. Acuna owns the feat however, stealing 68 bases and hitting 41 home runs. That gives Acuna the highest power speed number ever, 51.2 breaking the old record of 43.9 set by Alex Rodriguez in 1998.

Home runs and stolen bases have vastly different values, and the stolen base value is dependent on the run environment. Stolen bases are a one-run strategy. They are valuable when runs are scarce. Managers throughout history have been more likely to steal in a low run environment, as it’s more worth the risk of an out on the bases. The new rules did not change the break even point of stolen bases versus caught stealing, they simply lowered the risk of getting caught.

The bottom line is that stolen bases are just not that valuable, they are simply entertaining.

On top of that, the Braves are slugging .501 as a team, and likely will set the record for slugging percentage by a team. Slugging percentage (or more precise, average) is a measure of distance. A .500 slugging average means than the average Braves at bat ends with the batter halfway to first base. High slugging averages move base runners a long distance, which is why sluggers tend to lead the league in RBI. Since Acuna is a great baserunner, and the whole team hits for power, would he score many fewer runs if he didn’t steal at all? How often would he not score from first base on a double?

I used one of the Bill James runs created formulas to estimate how many runs the Braves scored. The formula includes stolen bases and caught stealing. It has the Braves at 908 runs versus their actual total of 916. I then removed stolen bases and caught stealing from the calculation, asking how many runs the Braves would score if they never attempted a steal. The answer is 899. By this estimate the Braves, who are an excellent 125 for 150 stealing, added just nine runs with those 150 attempts.

Acuna’s feat is nice, it’s entertaining, but it doesn’t add a lot of value given the offense of the Braves and the league.

Betts and Acuna may be having the greatest lead-off seasons ever. I have no problem with either of them winning the MVP. 0.2 WAR is noise. Voters might very well decide that Acuna, due to the steals, is more entertaining that Betts, and that entertainment has value. They may decide that Betts’ versatility on defense give him the edge. I just hope that voters don’t overvalue Acuna’s steals in terms of run production.

September 1, 2023

Players of the Month

The best offensive player of the month for August 2023 turned out to be an easy choice. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers won the average triple crown leading the majors in Batting Average, On Base Average, and Slugging Percentage with a .455/.516/.839 slash line. His eleven home runs and 35 runs scored also led the majors, while finishing second in RBI with 30. There were a number of outstanding months. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners hit .429 in August. It’s rare to have a batter hit .400 over an entire month, but two players accomplished the feat. Bryce Harper of the Phillies, Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, and Marcell Ozuna of the Braves also deserve mention. Congratulations to Mookie Betts on winning the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month Award for August 2023!

The Royals switched Cole Ragans to a starter on July 15th. He’s been outstanding since then, and posted the lowest ERA in the majors in the month of August, 1.72. All three true outcomes were great as he stuck out 53, walked nine and allowed just one home run in 36 2/3 innings, helping him to a 3-1 record. Only Freddy Peralta of the Brewers owned a higher K rate at 13.80 per nine. Peralta only pitched 30 innings in his five starts, but his 2.10 ERA was good for a 5-0 record.

Charlie Morton of the Braves came in second in ERA at 1.91 and was the only pitcher with at least 25 innings to allow no home runs in the month. He pitched 28 1/3 innings for a 4-1 record.

Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara worked the most, with 41 2/3 innings and 41 1/3 innings respectively. With higher ERAs they don’t really qualify for the pitcher of the month honors. In third place, however, stands Sonny Gray with 39 2/3 innings in six starts and a 2.04 ERA. Gray’s three true outcomes were good, but not quite as good as Ragans.

In a nice moment for the Royals, Cole Ragans wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month Award for August 2023. Congratulations!

August 1, 2023

Players of the Month

Ha-seong Kim of the Padres make a bid for the offensive player of July 2023 by posting the highest OBP of the month, a .449. The middle infielder collected 30 hits and sixteen walks in 24 games, getting hit twice by pitches for that little extra that propelled him ahead of Shohei Ohtani of the Angels at .447. Ohtani split his hits and walks evenly, twenty two each, and also got plunked twice.

The difference between the two is power. Kim slugged a very good .551 on four doubles and five home runs, but Ohtani comes in at .705 with a total of thirteen extra-base hits, including nine home runs. The .705 led the majors in slugging.

Cody Bellinger needs some attention as well. He collected 40 hits in 100 at bats for a .400/.432/.690 slash line. It’s difficult to hit .400 for a month, and while walks are great, hits do a lot more damage. Bellinger also struck out just ten times, showing once again the value of putting the ball in play to generate hits.

It was not a great month for home runs, as Manny Machado topped the chart with eleven, the only player to reach double digits. Machado also led in RBI. CJ Abrams of the Nationals showed power and speed as he hit .327/.391/.500 with sixteen stolen bases in sixteen attempts. He also tied for most runs scored in the month with 24.

For me it comes down to Ohtani versus Bellinger. This is an era where we should be awarding putting the ball in play, especially when it leads to hits. That makes Cody Bellinger the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for July 2023.

The best ERA of July belonged to Blake Snell of the Padres, a 0.56 in 32 innings. He achieved that despite walking twenty six batters! Opponents were just 5 for 39 with one RBI with runners in scoring position against him. He did not allow a home run.

Joe Musgrove and the just traded Aaron Civale posted 1.45 ERAs with much better walk rates. Musgrove struck out 10.45 batters per nine innings with a walk rate of 1.45. Civale struck out just 6.03 per nine innings and walked 1.69, but allowed just one home run to Musgrove’s three. Justin Verlander is right there with them with a 1.69 ERA and good three-true outcomes as well.

Joe Ryan blew batters away, but the high K rate did not lead to fewer hits allowed as his ERA came in at 6.39. Nick Pivetta and Tyler Glasnow owned good ERAs with high K rates, but something we’ve seen all year is that strikeouts are not necessarily leading to success. Of the walks per nine innings leaders, only Ryan Yarbrough produced an excellent ERA.

In the end, I like Civale’s line the best. He pitched more innings than Musgrove and Snell, and I find it difficult to award a pitcher with that many walks. Aaron Civale wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for July 2023!

July 1, 2023

Players of the Month

June busted out all over with great offensive performances. Eight players recorded batting averages over .350 in a minimum of 80 plate appearances (PA), including Luis Arraez of the Marlins who batted .406. It’s tough enough to hit .400 in one month, but Arraez hit .439 in April, and went 3 for 7, .429, in March.

Twenty one players posted OBPs over .400, including Ketel Marte at .442. Marte’s return to form this season is a big reason the Diamondbacks are on top of the NL West.

Fifteen players finished the month with slugging percentages over .600. Eddie Rosario of the Braves slugged a convenient .711, He appears to be returning to his pre-pandemic form, when he regularly hit over 20 home runs.

Despite all these great performances, the stats present an easy choice for the top batter. Shohei Ohtani of the Angels tops the OBP board with a .492 mark, and tops the slugging percentage board with a .952 average. His .394 BA finished second to Arraez. Ohtani collected 41 hits, twenty five of them for extra bases. Not only did his fifteen home runs lead the majors but he finished second in triples with three. He drove in 29 runs to lead the majors, and his 27 runs scored with second only to Marte’s 30.

Congratulations to Shohei Ohtani, the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for June 2023.

On the pitching side, Eury Perez of the Marlins made five starts, allowing one run on a solo homer in 28 innings for an ERA of 0.32. He struck out 35 and walked five for a 3-0 record. Blake Snell of the Padres pitched three more innings with a 0.87 ERA, striking out 53 batters. He did walk more batters and allow more home runs than Perez, however.

Twenty eight innings is not a lot. Among the pitchers with at least 36 innings, the stand out is Taijuan Walker of the Phillies. Walker went 5-1 in six starts with a 1.50 ERA. While his three-true outcome rates are good, none of them blow you away. Brayan Bello and Marcus Stroman allowed zero home runs, No one seemed to have dominated as much as Perez all month, so despite the low innings total, Eury Perez wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2023.

June 1, 2023

Players of the Month

Three batters posted outstanding performances in May 2023. Juan Soto of the Padres turned into an on-base machine, leading the majors with a .482 OBP. He collected 29 hits and walked 25 times, adding a .632 slugging percentage to the mix. He even stole five bases in six attempts.

Freddy Freeman of the Dodgers posted a .400 BA, tough to do in a month. His seventeen doubles were six more than any other player. Overall he posted a .400/.462/.722 slash line.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees topped the slugging percentage list at .882, 160 points higher than second place Freeman. Judge finished second to Soto in OBP at .747. He also tied for the major league lead in home runs with 12.

Of the three, Judge put up the best overall numbers, and wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for May 2023.

Two veteran pitchers posted ERAs below 1.00 in May. Michael Wacha of the Padres came in first with a 0.84 mark in 32 innings, while Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers finished with an 0.96 ERA in 37 2/3 innings. Neither produced a high strikeout rate, but both did a great job of limiting walks and home runs.

It was not a great month for high strikeout pitchers. Four of the top five K/9 pitcher finished with ERAs over 4.00. Three pitchers did not allow a home run in at 27 innings, but only Dane Dunning produced a remarkable ERA.

Wacha has slightly better three-true outcomes than Eovaldi, so Michael Wacha is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2023.

April 30, 2023

Players of the Month

Two players stand out on the offensive side for April 2023. Luis Arraez of the Marlins pulled off the rare feat of hitting .400 for a month. His .439 BA led the majors, and more importantly, so did his .500 OBP. Sixty seven points behind him sits Matt Chapman of the Blue Jays at .372, and he’s also second in OBP at .459. The two are much closer in that regard. Arraez hit mostly singles, however, his .549 slugging percentage comes mostly from his high BA. While Max Muncy of the Dodgers led the majors in slugging percentage at .743, Chapman was right behind him at .691. Chapman also hit 15 doubles. No one reached 60 doubles in a season since 1936, and Chapman is a quarter of the way there. His 15 doubles also ties a Mark set by Mike Lowell in 2002, most doubles through the end of April.

Ronald Acuna Jr.deserves a mention as well. Not only did he post high BA/OPB/Slug, he led the majors with twelve steals while only being caught twice.

Chapman’s superior power takes the day, and Matt Chapman is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for April 2023.

On the pitching side, Sonny Gray of the Twins made six starts and posted a 0.77 ERA in 35 innings. That was the best in the majors with a minimum of 25 innings. He blew batters away with 41 strikeouts and did not allow a home run. He went 4-0 in those six starts. Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks pitched 33 innings in five starts with a 1.09 ERA. He went deeper in games, and his K and walk rates were superior to Gray. He did allow two home runs, however.

Note that Gray was close to the top in innings pitched, if not IP per game. Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays accumulated 38 1/3 innings in his six starts, good for a 2.33 ERA. Josh Hader pitched great out of the pen for the Padres, leading the majors in saves with 10 while allowing just one run in thirteen innings.

Gray’s ability to keep the ball in the park and his extremely low ERA makes him a bit better case than Gallen, and Sonny Gray win the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the month for April 2023.

April 17, 2023

Cy Young Early Returns

Gerrit Cole of the Yankees leads in three of the four Cy Young Predictor categories, including both versions of Tom Tango’s Cy Young Points. Shane McClanahan beats him in Bill James Cy Young points since the Rays are in first place.

Note also how many AL pitchers are at the top of the list, basically surrounding Julio Urias. The AL seems much more concerned about pitching even though historically it’s been the league of higher offense.

November 17, 2022

Verdict Find Judge MVP

Every voter for the AL MVP award voted Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani first or second. Judge, however, took 28 of the 30 first place votes to win the MVP going away. He becomes the tallest MVP ever:

At 6-foot-7, Judge is the tallest MVP winner ever in either league. The previous tallest MVP was his Yankees teammate, 6-foot-6 Giancarlo Stanton, the NL winner with the Marlins in 2017. The previous tallest winners in the AL were 6-foot-5 Frank Thomas (1993-94), Joe Mauer (2009) and Justin Verlander (2011). NL winners who were also 6-foot-5: Dave Parker (1978), Kris Bryant (2016) and Freddie Freeman (2020).
BBWAA.com

That seems about right to me. If Ohtani can combine his 2021 hitting with his 2022 pitching, he might need to get two votes from every writer to express how much better he would be than anyone else in the game.

Verlander finished tenth, the best finish for a pitcher this season.

November 17, 2022

Gold Medal for Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt takes home the NL MVP award:

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt was named the 2022 National League MVP, giving the Cardinals a league record 18 winners.
BBWAA.com

I thought the vote would be a bit closer, since very good cases could be made for both Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. Goldschmidt took 22 first place votes and eight second place votes. Machado ranged from first to fifth with seven first place and 13 second place votes. Arenado picked up just one first place vote, but 15 third place votes.

I would not have voted for Goldschmidt due to his last-season fade. It seems the day it appeared he had a shot at the triple crown, he faded from contention. He was just okay the last quarter of the season.

Sandy Alcantara finished tenth, best for an NL pitcher, with two voters ranking him fourth.