The White Sox beat the probabilities and finish 41-121 as they beat Detroit 9-5. That gives them a .253 winning percentage, better than the .250 1962 Mets. At least New York no longer owns the most losses record.
White Sox Watch
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Category Archives: Records
Two Games in One
The Tigers defeat the White Sox 4-1 Friday night. That clinches a wild card slot for the Tigers. It also means Chicago sets the modern record for losses in a season at 121.
The Tigers finish a remarkable run that brought them from eight games under .500 on August 10th to 12 games over .500 today. They own the best record in baseball, 31-11 since then, with division rivals Kansas City and Minnesota playing below .500 ball. Tonight may decide which of the other two will join the Tigers.
The White Sox need to win their remaining two games to avoid the worst winning percentage in a 162 game season. the 1962 Mets only played 160 games. The White Sox need to go 41-121 to finish above .250.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox sweep the Angels with a 7-0 win on Thursday, finishing out their final home stand with a rare three-game win streak. Chicago remains tied with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
The White Sox need to win two more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.313 | 0.787 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.805 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.360 | 0.734 |
Today’s win means the White Sox will finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. The worst the White Sox can do now is 39-123, a .241 winning percentage.
The probabilities still lean toward ending the season with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. They will face the Tigers in Detroit, a team than at the moment is motivated to win all of their remaining games.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Angels 4-3 in ten innings on Wednesday, a rare two wins in a row for this team. Chicago remains tied with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
The White Sox need to win three more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.309 | 0.915 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.924 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.356 | 0.878 |
Chicago only needs one more win to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.309 | 0.234 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.250 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.356 | 0.182 |
The White Sox still look like a lock to finish behind the 1962 Mets in winning percentage, but now there is about a 1 in 10 chance that they pull off a miracle. The two game streak pulls the probability of losing their last four games down, but not out. One in four wins happen often enough that it would not be unusual . A sweep of the Angels would take away that pain.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Angels 3-2 on Tuesday, overcoming a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning for the win. Chicago remains tied with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
Chicago needs to win four more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.969 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.972 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.351 | 0.949 |
Chicago only needs two more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.522 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.538 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.351 | 0.430 |
The White Sox still look like a lock to finish behind the 1962 Mets in winning percentage, but they now have about a 50/50 chance of avoiding a worse finish than the 1916 Athletics.
Century for Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies hit a home run leading off the bottom of the third inning to put Philadelphia up 3-0 on the Cubs. The solo shot also game him 100 RBI, all from the leadoff slot. He is the sixth hitter to accomplish this since 1974, the start of complete event records. All game from the year 2000 on. Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna Jr.in 2023 became the top two, Betts at 107, Acuna at106.
I suspect it didn’t happen in the old days. Lead-off batters got on base; the power hitters came up behind them. Now they do both.
White Sox Watch
The Padres beat the White Sox 4-2 on Sunday. Chicago led 2-1 in the eighth inning, but Luis Arraez pinch hit and doubled in a run, then Fernando Tatis Jr. homered for the lead. The White Sox suffered their 120th loss, tying them with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
Note that the White Sox have now lost 30 more game than the division leading Guardians won.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.298 | 0.9898 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.9901 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.352 | 0.978 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.298 | 0.748 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.752 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.352 | 0.644 |
All probabilities now point to the White Sox winding up being the worst team of the 125 seasons of modern baseball. Even the plus eight Pythagorean WPCT has them failing two out of three times. Hope is fading fast.
White Sox Watch
The Padres beat the White Sox 6-2 on Saturday. Chicago suffered their 119th loss, tying them with the 2003 Tigers for the second most losses in the modern era. The Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that the Tigers were 38-118 then won five of their last six games to avoid both records.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.300 | 0.971 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.973 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.941 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.300 | 0.647 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.656 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.521 |
All probabilities now point to the White Sox winding up being the worst team of the 125 seasons of modern baseball. Frankly, I don’t put much stock in the Pythagorean winning percentage due to the team unloading players at the trade deadline. They may be +8 overall, but I suspect the current roster is very close to replacement level.
Their only hope is that they get to host the Angels for three games. They may need to sweep, as the Padres and Tigers are still in playoff contention. A sweep of the Angels only has them avoid the 1916 A’s winning percentage.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox played another close extra-inning game of Friday, with the Padres winning 3-2. Their 118th loss breaks the tie with the 1916 Athletics for third place for most losses in the modern era. The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003, and the Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that two close losses in two games move them eight game below their Pythagorean projection.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.302 | 0.941 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.945 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.358 | 0.885 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.302 | 0.547 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.562 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.358 | 0.409 |
All probabilities for the 40-122 or worse finish point to a near certainty of knocking the 1962 Mets to second place for the expansion era. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, but two of the three estimates of the team’s intrinsic winning percentage make that finish more likely than not. Even the most generous intrinsic winning percentage puts the odds at 2 in 5.
Best Batter Today
Thursday’s games changed the order of the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings just a bit. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Judge went one four three with a walk, while Soto drew a walk in a 3-2 Mariners win.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays moves back into second place after a three for four with a walk and two home runs. He tied for the second highest game score of the day at 82. The Blue Jays won a two-hit shutout of the Rangers 4-0.
Brent Rooker, in third place sat idle with the Athletics on Thursday, as did Manny Machado and the Padres, Machado in fifth place.
Now ranking sixth, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted a game score of 115. He went six for six with two doubles and three home runs, driving in ten runs in a 20-4 win over the Marlins. The 115 is the highest of the season, the third game score over 100 this year and the 23rc over 90. Historically, it is the second highest game score since 1920, second only to Dodgers great Shawn Green, who posted a score of 117 on May 23, 2002. Ohtani also broke Green’s single season Dodgers record for home runs, 49 in 2001
Although stolen bases do not count for the batting score, he stole two bases to give him 51 homers and 51stolen bases on the season. That makes him the first offensive player to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases. He has not quite caught up with Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of power-speed number. Ohtani is at 51. Acuna, with 41 homers and 73 steals in 2023 stands at 52.5.
Mr. 50-50
The Dodgers lead the Marlins 14-3 in the top of the eighth inning, and Shohei Ohtani already played a monster of a game. Early on he knocked out two doubles and stole a base, his 50th. He would add another steal before coming to bat in the sixth and seventh inning, homering in both for his 49th and 50th of the season. That puts him all alone in the 50-50 club.
Ohtani came into this game in a bit of an on base slump. Since the start of August he owned a .235 BA with a .298 OBP. Twenty three of his 42 went for extra bases, including sixteen home runs. If this game marks the return of Ohtani as a complete hitter, the Dodgers are looking much better going into the playoffs.
Update: The Dodgers win 20-4 as Ohtani hits a third home run in the game! He’s six for six with 17 total bases. He’s only the seventh player to record at least seventeen total bases in a game.
White Sox Watch
It took 13 innings, but the Angels beat the White Sox 4-3 on Wednesday. They lost in a very White Sox fashion as with a runner on third and one out, Chicago brought the infield in, only to have the ball in play deflect off the third baseman to allow the runner to score.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.896 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.906 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.823 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.452 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.474 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.330 |
This evening the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and it’s back to a near certainty. Their Pythagorean winning percentage gives them a one in five chance of 41 wins. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
White Sox Watch
The Angels beat the White Sox 5-0 on Tuesday as Chicago continues to do poorly in games in which they don’t score a run. They lead the majors in times shut out at 19. (Their cross town rivals, the Cubs, are tied for the NL lead with 15.)
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.306 | 0.839 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.857 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.355 | 0.740 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.306 | 0.367 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.394 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.355 | 0.251 |
This morning’s the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and it’s back to a near certainty. Their Pythagorean winning percentage gives them a one in four chance of 41 wins, and as we’ve seen with Beat the Streak that is no sure thing. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Angels 8-4 on Monday. It is the first time Chicago won three games in a row since June 29th.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.772 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.798 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.650 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.293 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.323 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.187 |
This morning the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, but it’s no longer a foregone conclusion. The three wins in a row make finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics much less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Athletics 4-3 on Sunday. Bryan Ramos starred at the plate with a double and a home run. Sean Burke, in his first start, held the Athletics to two runs in five innings. It is the first time Chicago won two games in a row since June 29th, when they completed a run of three games in a row.
Chicago needs to win six more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.303 | 0.877 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.888 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.781 |
Chicago only needs four more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.303 | 0.483 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.505 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.339 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets. The two wins in a row make finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics less likely. It going to be close, but they have an okay chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Athletics 7-6 on Saturday. It was a dramatic win as Chicago twice blew three run leads, the second time in the top of the ninth inning. Andew Benintendi, three for five in the game, hit a walk off home run for the win.
Chicago needs to win seven more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.297 | 0.941 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.942 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.862 |
Chicago only needs five more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.297 | 0.663 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.666 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.355 | 0.485 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then an even chance than of finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in five of the six scenarios to be the worst team of the modern era. My guess would be a 37-125 finish.
White Sox Watch
The Athletics beat the White Sox 2-0 on Friday. Chicago needs to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.292 | 0.973 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.971 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.350 | 0.925 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.292 | 0.800 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.791 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.350 | 0.641 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 5/8 chance than of finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in every scenario to be the worst team of the modern era.
White Sox Watch
The Guardians beat the White Sox 6-4 on Wednesday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.294 | 0.955 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.954 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.352 | 0.883 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.294 | 0.739 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.733 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8) | 0.352 | 0.558 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 50/50 chance than of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in every scenario to be the worst team of the modern era.
White Sox Watch
The Guardians beat the White Sox 5-0 on Tuesday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.296 | 0.931 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.931 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.347 | 0.847 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.296 | 0.673 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.673 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.347 | 0.500 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 50/50 chance than of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics.
Leading Edge
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies led off the bottom of the first inning against the Rays with a home run, his fourteenth lead-off dinger of the season. That sets a new record:
In the bottom of the first inning, Schwarber sent a 1-0 fastball from Rays starter Taj Bradley 437 feet to center field, moving ahead of Alfonso Soriano, who had 13 leadoff homers in 2003 with the New York Yankees.
Schwarber’s 35th homer of the season was the 45th leadoff homer of his career, with 32 coming since joining the Phillies in 2022.
Schwarber walked to lead off the bottom of the third inning and appeared to injure his elbow diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt by Tampa Bay catcher Logan Driscoll.
ESPN.com
Putting a slugger in the lead-off slot worked out well for the Phillies, who rank third in the majors in runs per game since 2022 at 4.80.
White Sox Watch
The Guardians beat the White Sox 5-3 on Monday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.298 | 0.899 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.902 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.349 | 0.790 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.298 | 0.604 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.611 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.349 | 0.423 |
They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives them a better chance than not of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox beat the Red Sox 7-2 Sunday afternoon, taking advantage of Boston reliever Zack Kelly, charged with five runs late in the game. This afternoon, the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.299 | 0.861 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.868 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.352 | 0.722 |
Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.299 | 0.538 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.549 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.352 | 0.348 |
So after Sunday’s win they are somewhere between a 1 in 3 to even to relieve the Athletics of their dismal record. Finishing worse than the 1962 Mets, however, is still a very strong possibility.
White Sox Watch
I keep getting dragged back into this post by college roommates. Both possess mathematical minds, and both work as lawyers. The first expressed interest in the probability of finish worse than the 1962 Mets, their .250 winning percentage the worst in the 162 game era. This morning, the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.294 | 0.925 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.922 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | .347 | 0.822 |
Yesterday, the other lawyer inquired about the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.294 | 0.687 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.680 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | .347 | 0.492 |
So after Saturday’s loss, they are at best 50-50 to relieve the Athletics of their dismal record.
White Sox Watch
I had a request to update the White Sox probability of finishing with a lower winning percentage than the 1962 Mets. After the loss to the Red Sox Friday night, the 95% confidence interval method gives them a possible high winning percentage of .296, which is also the replacement level winning percentage. The probability of them winning no more than eight games comes in at 0.89.
The White Sox stand seven games below their Pythagorean win total, and using that as a floor on their winning percentage they evaluate to .349. That would mean their probability of no more than 8 wins is 0.77.
The team really needs a winning streak.
White Sox Watch
The White Sox win! They take down the Orioles 8-1. I watched quite a bit of the game, and the south siders played well. Starter Jonathan Cannon mixed his pitches well to keep the Orioles hitters off balance. The defense looked good, and the offense delivered three home runs.
That win doesn’t change much, however, as there still is a 0.86 probability that they finish with 40 wins or fewer.
White Sox Watch
The Orioles beat the White Sox 9-0 to drop Chicago’s winning percentage to .221. At this point figuring out probabilities is just ridiculous. This is just a horrible team. They are going to break loss records and winning percentage records at the bad end of the scale. At this point I would be surprised if they won another game all year. They have 22 games left. They would need to go 10-12 to finish above .250, and 11-11 to just tie the 1962 Mets in number of losses.
Here’s Woody asking a White Sox what she thinks of this season:
White Sox Watch
The Orioles beat the White Sox 13-3 on Monday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .223. It was a particularly awful loss. Chicago got off to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first. The Orioles came back with one in the bottom of the inning, then two more in the third, then two more in the fifth. The White Sox would put a man on, but three double plays killed some of those runners. The Baltimore batteed around in the sixth inning, scoring six more runs, and the game was basically over. Some how, that big loss did not move the needle on their Pythagorean projection, as they are still at -7.
That winning percentage is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-14 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 139 games is .294. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.893. The White Sox are now below the replacement winning percentage of .296, which would give them a ,888 chance of no more than40 wins. I believe that when replacement level becomes the generous team evaluation, a team has gone from the miserable to the horrible. I wonder if they only read books with “death” in the title:
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .348, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.75, or three in four. I’m dropping my best guess to a 38-124 finish.
White Sox Watch
The Mets beat the White Sox 2-0 on Sunday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .225. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-15 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 137 games is .296. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.86. The White Sox are now at to the replacement winning percentage of .296! A generous view of their winning percentage puts them at replacement level.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .351, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.68, or two in three. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins! I’m sticking to my best guess of a 39-123 finish.
White Sox Watch
The Mets beat the White Sox 5-3 on Saturday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .226. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-16 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 137 games is .298. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.817. The White Sox are now very close to the replacement winning percentage of .296. The probability at that level comes out at 0.823. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or 82 times.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .353, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.62, or worse than even. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins! My best guess right now would be a 39-123 finish.
White Sox Watch
The Mets beat the White Sox 5-1 on Friday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .228. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-17 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 136 games is .300. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.77. The White Sox are now very close to the replacement winning percentage of .296. The probability at that level comes out at 0.78. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer three quarters of the time.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .355, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.55, or worse than even. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins!
Note that since Grady Sizemore took over the team on August 8th, they have won just three games. Maybe it wasn’t the manager.