The Rangers beat the White Sox 2-1 on Thursday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .230. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-18 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 135 games is .302. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.72. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.74. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer two thirds of the time.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .358, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.43, or nearly one half. Even generous measures of the intrinsic winning percentage of the team have their win total low.

The Rangers beat the White Sox twice on Wednesday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .231. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-19 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 134 games is .304. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.67. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.70. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer two thirds of the time.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .353, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.45, or nearly one half. Even generous measures of the intrinsic winning percentage of the team have their win total low.

The Tigers beat the White Sox 6-3 on Monday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .235. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-21 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 132 games is .309. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.55. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.61. Both measures now favor the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .358, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.34, or about 1 in 3.

The managerial change has not helped. This is just a terrible team.

The Tigers beat the White Sox 9-4 on Sunday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .237. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-22 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 131 games is .311. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.49. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.56. The odds now favor the White Sox falling below the mark of the Mets!

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .360, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.27, or about 1 in 4.

Things are looking bleak for Chicago.

The Tigers beat the White Sox 13-4 on Saturday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .238. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity*. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

*It was pointed out to me yesterday that mediocre means average work. To me, mediocre carries a much stronger negative connotation If you think of average as being one standard deviation from the mean, mediocre to me happens at the lower end of that average range. I am comfortable sticking with that description.

They need to go no better than 9-23 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 130 games is .313. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.43. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.51 So the odds of a worse finish are basically even.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .363, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.22, or about 1 in 5.

The White Sox beat the Giants 6-2 on Wednesday, raising the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .242. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 9-25 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 128 games is .318. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.43. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.53. So the odds of a worse finish lay somewhere between one in three and two in five.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .368, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.14, or about 1 in 7.

The Giants beat the White Sox 4-1 on Tuesday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .236. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-25 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 127 games is .312. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.45. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.53. Both measures are converging, and both point to about a 50% chance of a new low.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .362, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.23, or about 1 in 4.

The Giants beat the White Sox 5-3 on Monday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .238. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-26 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 126 games is .314. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.39. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.45. So the chance of the White Sox beating the Mets is somewhere between 2 to 5 and even.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .365, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.18, or between 1 in 6 and 1 in 5.

The Astros beat the White Sox 2-0 Sunday afternoon, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .240. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-27 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 125 games is .316. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.34. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.45. So the White Sox right now have about a 29% to 40% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So the odds are some where between 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .359, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.17, or about 1 in 6.

The Astros beat the White Sox 6-1 on Saturday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season .242. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-28 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 124 games is .319. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.29. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.40. So the White Sox right now have about a 29% to 40% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. That about 1 in 3 to 2 in 5 odds.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .361, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.14, or about 1 in 7.

The White Sox beat the Astros 5-4 Friday night, raising the White Sox winning percentage on the season drops to .244. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 10-29 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 29 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 123 games is .321. The probability of no more than 10 wins at that level is 0.25. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.37. So the White Sox right now have about a 25% to 37% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. That about 1 in 4 to 2 in 5 odds.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .364, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.11, or about 1 in 9.

The Cubs beat the White Sox 3-1 on Saturday night. The White Sox winning percentage on the season falls to .235. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 12-31 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 27 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 119 games is .313. The probability of no more than 12 wins at that level is 0.38. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.48. So the White Sox right now have about a 38% to 48% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s somewhere between 2 in 5 and 1 in 2.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .358, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.18, or between one in five and one in six

Note also that the White Sox do not have an easy schedule. They have seven games against Detroit, six games against the Angels and three games against the Athletics. Otherwise, most of their opponents are in some kind of race. They may need to got 8=8 against these weaker opponents to top the Mets winning percentage.

The Cubs beat the White Sox 7-6 on Friday night in one of the most exciting games of the year. The Cubs got out to a 7=0 lead, but the south siders clawed their way back to a one-run deficit, the game ending with the bases loaded on a fly ball by Andrew Vaughn. A tough loss in Grady Sizemore‘s first game as a manager. The White Sox winning percentage on the season falls to .237. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 12-32 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 27 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 118 games is .315. The probability of no more than 12 wins at that level is 0.34. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.44. So the White Sox right now have about a 34% to 44% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s somewhere between 1 in 3 to 2 in 5.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -5 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .360, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.15, or between one in six and one in seven.

The Athletics beat the White Sox 3-2 on Wednesday afternoon, wasting six shutout innings by Chicago’s starter, Davis Martin. Their winning percentage on the season falls to .239. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 12-33 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 27 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 117 games is .317. The probability of no more than 12 wins at that level is 0.29. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.40. So the White Sox right now have about a 29% to 40% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s somewhere between 1 in 3 to 2 in 5.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -4 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .355, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.14, or about one in seven.

The White Sox beat the athletics 5-1 on Tuesday night, ending the 21 game Chicago losing streak. Their winning percentage on the season rises to .241. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 12-34 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 27 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 116 games is .321. The probability of no more than 12 wins at that level is 0.24. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.37. So the White Sox right now have about a 24% to 37% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. It’s still a likely event, but almost cut in half using the 95% CI method.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -4 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .354, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.12, or about one in eight.

The Royals beat the White Sox 4-3 Tuesday night to drop Chicago’s winning percentage to .245. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 13-39 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that includes 27 wins at the low end of the range in 110 games in the 95 percent confidence interval is .327. The probability of no more than 13 wins at that level is 0.15. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.29. So the White Sox right now have about a 15% to 29% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. At the conservative level, they’ve gone from one in eight to one in six. At replacement level, they are closer to one in three. With the trades they made at the deadline, they are a bit close to replacement level.