Sean MacLeod questions whether win shares really show that the A’s staff looks more formidable than the Red Sox. I’ve thought about this, and wrote a piece on the subject of how run distributions might be the cause of the Pythagorean estimate being off.

The short answer is, don’t strike out. The DBacks faced five teams this year that struck out less than 7 times per nine innings against Arizona pitching. The results:

Team K/9            Record vs. Ariz.
Less than 7.0           26-25
Greater than 7.0        38-73

The five teams with K success were the Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Yankees and Indians. The Cardinals struck out 8.36 times per 9 innings against the DBacks this year, and had a winning record against them, a bit on the high side (DBacks average was 8.11). If the Cardinals can put the ball in play, they have a shot at winning this series.

Here’s the final list for 2002:

Player                   WS
Barry Bonds             48.6
Alex Rodriguez          38.9
Brian Giles             37.7
Jim Thome               35.9
Lance Berkman           34.8
Todd Helton             34.8
Jason Giambi            33.9
Miguel Tejada           33.9
Chipper Jones           33.6
Vladimir Guerrero       32.4
Albert Pujols           32.2
Larry Walker            31.4
Luis Gonzalez           30.8
Bobby Abreu             30.5
Jose Vidro              30.4
Alfonso Soriano         30.2
Manny Ramirez           29.8
Bernie Williams         29.6
Randy Johnson           28.4
Sammy Sosa              28.4
Magglio Ordonez         28.2

Thanks to STATS, Inc. for letting me figure these all year. And let’s put in a good word for Brian Giles. He finishes the season with a .298 BA, a .450 OBA and a .622 slugging percentage. Now the Pirates just have to take their revenue sharing money and put a decent team around him, and they’ll be a contender. Here are just the pitchers:

Player                   WS
Randy Johnson           28.4
Eric Gagne              27.9
John Smoltz             25.2
Barry Zito              25.1
Tim Hudson              24.0
Billy Koch              23.2
Eddie Guardado          22.4
Robb Nen                22.4
Byung-Hyun Kim          22.3
Roy Halladay            22.3
Derek Lowe              21.8
Jose Mesa               21.7
Pedro Martinez          21.6
Bartolo Colon           21.0
Mike Williams           21.0
Curt Schilling          19.7
Greg Maddux             19.7
Troy Percival           19.5
Tom Glavine             19.2
Jamie Moyer             19.0
Odalis Perez            18.7
Billy Wagner            18.7

Based on this, by the way, the A’s staff looks more formidable than the Red Sox. Notice, also, that there are no Yankees in the top list here.

Kim does the job, striking out the last two batters. Game 1 will be in Arizona, late night Tuesday.

Colorado refuses to lay down and die. They’ve cut the lead to 11-8 in the 9th, and with one out Brenly has had to go to Kim. And of course, Kim never gives up a game tying HR. 🙂

Curt Schilling came in to pitch the 8th inning today. I don’t quite understand this. What does he get from coming into the game that he doesn’t get throwing on the sidelines? He didn’t look sharp, giving up 2 singles and a three run homer. And on top of it all, Rick Sutcliffe explains to everyone how Schilling may be tipping his pitches! I’m sure the Cardinals appreciate that. 🙂
But what if Schilling got hurt? Is it really worth getting him live game action when you are risking an injury. Sometimes I think Schilling is more in charge of that team than Brenly.

Home field is settled in the AL. Yankees finish first, Oakland 2nd. Still waiting for the outcomes of the Cardinals and Diamondbacks games.

Soriano struck out in the ninth, as did Jeter. Barring a big comeback by the Orioles, Soriano falls 1 HR short of 40-40.
I actually think this is a good thing. If Soriano had gotten the 40-40, it would have been difficult to have an objective discussion about his season. Someone would always throw the 40-40 in your face as if that’s all that mattered. Soriano is a good player; he’s not a leadoff man, however. Nick Johnson will finish with an OBA 15 points higher than Soriano. He’s more valuable at the top of the lineup than Soriano. Alfonso would be a great #5 hitter, but unless he learns to get on base, his talents are wasted in the leadoff spot.
Jeter finishes with 730 PA without a triple, 2nd highest total of all time.

Rolen broke it up as I wrote the last post. 🙁

Wayne Franklin of the Brewers has a no-hitter through 5. Cardinals need to win this game to have a hope at home field in the first round.

Jeter now has 729 plate appearances this year without a triple, win the possibility of one more if Torre doesn’t pull him. If he doesn’t get a triple in that PA, it will be the 2nd most PA in a season without a triple. Biggo had 754 in 1999, and Bagwell, also in 1999, had 729. So the top of the ninth should be interesting for the Yankees. Soriano’s last chance for 40-40, and Jeter’s last chance for a triple.

Sammy Sosa has hit #49. They are through 4, so he should have two more PA for a crack at 50. It would be reminisent of Cecil Fielder in 1990 needing one HR for 50 on the last day of the season, and hitting two. There was no TV broadcast for that game, so ESPN sent a camera crew to record his AB. 50 HR was a very big deal a decade ago.

Detroit-Toronto took 2:12 today. It was a 1-0 game. Hinske drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 8th to keep the game short.

Mateo gets a hit. Maybe Vlad will hit his 40th.

Tim Drew has a no-hitter going through 5. Stay tuned.

From 1996 on, the Yankees have an unbelievable record in the post-season. This article examines why.

I was just looking at the Braves win shares, and noticed Vinny Castilla at 3.2 by the short form, and I thought, what’s the lowest win shares by a player with 502 PA (qualifies for the batting title). Sure enough, it’s Vinny. Here’s the bottom of the list:

Player                    WS
Aramis Ramirez           7.5
Jeromy Burnitz           7.2
Deivi Cruz               7.0
Neifi Perez              4.4
Vinny Castilla           3.2

It’s not the worst of all time. Just last year, Michael Barrett of the Expos put up a 2. Ted Simmons, in 1984, actually posted a 1, and he was mostly a DH! Still, given this, I don’t know if the move of Chipper from third was such a good idea. It strikes me that it would have been easier to find a left fielder capable of putting up 5 or 6 win shares.

Earlier in the year I cited an article about keeping ball at the proper humidity at Coors Field. It seems to have paid off. The Rockies only have 150 HR this year, their lowest total since 1994 and third lowest total in franchise history. They’ve put up their third lowest home slugging percentage (.496) and their fourth lowest home slugging percentage allowed (.497). I’d say the experiment was a success.

Looks like the Arizona-Cardinals series will get the extra day off this year. That means that only Schilling would have to go on short rest if the series goes five. Randy Johnson would still get 4 days off between starts.

The A’s and Twins have set their rotations for the Division Series. The A’s are going with a 3-man rotation, where lefties Mulder and Zito will get three starts, and Tim Hudson will get two. Looking at the Twins vs. lefties and righties, the A’s may want to start Hudson in one game instead of two. The Twins are 70-38 (.648) when the opposition starts a RHP, best in the majors, but only 22-29 (.431) whe the opposition starts a LHP.

A story here from SFGate.com on Jackie Autry, and how happy she thinks Gene would be with this team.
One of the reasons the Angels never won under Gene Autry was that he always wanted stars on his team to compete with the Dodgers. However, rather than grow his own, he went for other teams stars, and unfortunately, when he got them, they were usually on the downside of their careers. This is a very different team than one Gene Autry would have built, and probably has a better chance of winning than any team Gene ever built.

Congrats to these two teams. I’d like to see Barry Bonds do well in the post-season this year. It would be a shame if he ended a Hall of Fame career without one decent post-season.

This looks like a really evenly matched series. My thoughts are here.

Rey Ordonez wants out of New York, according to this story on ESPN.com.

“The fans here are too stupid,” Ordonez told The Post. “You have to play perfect every game. You can’t make an error. You can’t go 0-for-4. Are we like (expletive) machines?”

Since 1996, Ordonez has gone 0 for at least 4 one hundred seven times out of 386 games in which he got at least 4 AB. That’s 27.7% of games. Not the worst in the league, but in the top 30. His .245 BA is fifth lowest in the majors over that time. His .290 OBA is the 2nd lowest (2000 PA). And his .304 slugging average is the lowest by 26 points! To put it another way, there are 30 hitters in that time frame whose batting averages are higher than Rey’s slugging average. But NYfans are stupid to boo a poor hitter.

“I want something more relaxed,” Ordonez told The Post. “I’ll probably play two or three more years (after next season), then I’m gone. After next year, I’m looking for something else. Maybe close to Florida.”

Rey, Florida is a great place for retirees. You’ll have plenty of time to catch the early bird dinner specials, because it’s likely you won’t be playing baseball.
Update: Ordonez doesn’t think all fans are stupid.

Sorinao has now gone 9 games trying to hit his 40th HR. He has 5 two-hit games in this stretch, but with his 0 for 5 tonight, he’s hitting .263 over these games. When I’ve seen him, he’s really just swinging for the fences, rather than just letting it happen. I think Michael Kay of the Yankees is going to be very disappointed if Sorinao does not reach the milestone.

Al Bethke makes a good point about the Twins attendance. Here it is by month:

Month        Att
------     -------
4    20727
5    19894
6    23146
7    26648
8    29998
9    20339

It’s too bad. The Twins were saved from extinction, they are winning the central by a mile, and it was time for the fans to come out. Let’s hope they show up for the playoffs.

Reader Brad Harris asked for a list of top win share leaders. Here is the top of the overall list:

Player               Win Shares
Barry Bonds             48.1
Alex Rodriguez          38.6
Lance Berkman           35.5
Brian Giles             35.2
Todd Helton             34.7
Jim Thome               33.4
Chipper Jones           32.5
Jason Giambi            32.4
Miguel Tejada           31.8
Albert Pujols           31.7
Larry Walker            31.3
Vladimir Guerrero       30.9
Luis Gonzalez           30.9
Alfonso Soriano         30.5
Bobby Abreu             29.7
Manny Ramirez           29.3
Bernie Williams         28.7
Jose Vidro              28.6
Randy Johnson           28.5
Magglio Ordonez         28.1
Sammy Sosa              27.9

And here is the list of just pitchers:

Player               Win Shares
Randy Johnson           28.5
Eric Gagne              27.9
Barry Zito              24.0
Billy Koch              23.9
Tim Hudson              23.8
John Smoltz             23.8
Derek Lowe              21.9
Jose Mesa               21.7
Pedro Martinez          21.7
Eddie Guardado          21.5
Robb Nen                21.3
Byung-Hyun Kim          21.2
Mike Williams           21.1
Curt Schilling          20.6
Bartolo Colon           20.6
Roy Halladay            20.5
Troy Percival           19.5
Greg Maddux             19.2
Jamie Moyer             19.1
Odalis Perez            19.0
Tom Glavine             18.9
Billy Wagner            18.7

Now remember, these are short form win shares, so the final totals will probably be a bit different. However, it’s pretty clear that Johnson deserves the Cy Young award more than Schilling this year.

The Giants won the season series vs. the Diamondbacks, so they hold the advantage in case of a tie. The also have a game in hand, as their game with the Atlanta Braves on 8/15 ended in a tie. If the Giants finish 1/2 game behind Arizona after Sunday’s games, they would fly to Atlanta to make up the game on Monday. If they lose the game, they stay in Atlanta and open up as the wild card against the Braves. If they win the game, they would play St. Louis, either in St. Louis or SF depending on how the season ends. Giants do not have the tiebreaker vs. St. Louis. If the Giants are 1/2 games up on the DBacks after Sunday, no make up is needed to decide the wild card, but if both the Giants and Cardinals have 95 wins, I would think the game would be necessary to decide first round home field. Inerestingly, Cardinals (3.01) and Giants (3.03) have the best ERA’s in the NL in September. If a series between those two comes about, I wonder is Bonds will run the bases with “one flap down” if he hits a HR?

Prime California real estate, walk to Disneyland. Twenty-five strong men to patrol the lawn. Great for parties, can hold 50,000. 30 Bathrooms, kitchen and house cleaning staff included. Waterfall on property. Big screen TV in backyard included. Gene Autry lived here!
Sounds good to me, I’ll start the bidding at $1 million dollars.
Think that will be the best offer they get? 🙂

Congrats to the Angels for winning at least the wild card. The AL teams are now set, for the most part, and I don’t know who to root for. They’re all good teams. You can go for the Cinderella Twins; you can go for the scrappy and low paid A’s; you can go for the surprise Angels; and there’s always the cream of the crop Yankees. I’ll try to write some previews over the weekend now that we have a better handle on the matchups.