Monthly Archives: February 2004

February 29, 2004 February 29, 2004

Panning for Gold

According to this article by Danny Knobler, a member of the Tigers has not won a gold glove award since Gary Pettis in 1989. With the addition of I-Rod and Vina, Knobler thinks that streak might be over. The pitching coach thinks the better defense will help his staff:

With or without an award, there’s little doubt the Tigers will be better defensively this year. They should be better behind the plate (although Brandon Inge wasn’t bad last year), and much better in the middle of the infield, with Vina and new shortstop Carlos Guillen.
“That’s big, very big, especially for me,” pitching coach Bob Cluck said. “Because I’m a good-glove pitching coach. Our whole philosophy is to put the ball in play early, and put it on the ground.
“Last year, we had range problems.”
What he means is, the Tigers’ worst-in-the-AL .978 fielding percentage didn’t tell the whole story, because it didn’t count the number of balls that went past infielders for hits. Many of those same balls figure to be outs this year.

According to the Probabilistic Model of Range, the Tigers had the 2nd worst range in the majors last year. Guillen was above average at shortstop last year, while Vina was below average (I don’t know how much his injury contributed to that). So they should be improved up the middle this year.
However, given what we now know about pitchers being rather unable to control what happens when the ball is put into play, maybe Bob Cluck should rethink his philosophy and try to get his staff to strike out more batters.

February 29, 2004

Tribe Pitching

Here’s a look at how the Indians pitching staff is shaping up. They are planning on carrying 12 pitchers. It wasn’t that long ago that pitching staff went north with 10 pitchers, and trimmed it down to 9 after April. Those days, the big question was whether to carry a third catcher. According to this article, Wedge is trying to decide if he wants to spare outfielders or two spare infielders.
Part of the dilution of pitching is this expansion of the bullpen staff. Yes, expansion has contributed, but growing a staff from 10 to 12 also adds a lot of pitchers who don’t really have the talent to be in the majors. I’ve always thought that 10 pitchers and 15 position players is the right mix. That way, you have enough lefty-righty bats on the bench for any batting situation, and you can carry a couple of defensive wizards to fill in late in the game for your lumbering sluggers. I’d love to see a team go back to 10 pitchers.

February 29, 2004

He’s Trying Not to Be Seen

The White Sox are using an interesting strategy this spring. They are only using Shingo Takatsu against NL hitters:

With a funky, sidearm delivery, Takatsu has been baffling White Sox hitters during batting practice and his off-speed pitches have been particularly nasty.
“I don’t want to pitch him against any American League team down here unless I have to,” said Sox pitching coach Don Cooper. “I’d rather make it a complete surprise attack. Nobody’s seen him, so let’s keep him under wraps.”
The White Sox will play six exhibition games against the NL Arizona Diamondbacks this spring, and they also face the Colorado Rockies five times. If that’s not enough to give Takatsu suitable work, the Sox have three “B” games as another option.

I don’t know how long they’ll be able to keep him a secret. I assume other teams will have scouts watching, and I’m sure video tape of his delivery will get out. It’s a good mind game, however.

February 28, 2004

Flocking to the Park

Another example that signing big free agents helps the ball club at the gate:

In the week following Feb. 7, when tickets went on sale, the Orioles sold 1,200 new season ticket packages. That adds up to about 60,000 tickets and already puts the club near the amount sold for all of last season. In the next week, overall ticket sales will approach 1 million, Brightman said.
Meanwhile, the season ticket renewal rate is almost double that of last year, and the number of new season ticket sales is more than double that of last year.
Interest in tickets has been so high the team had to hire temporary staff to handle the call volume, said Don Grove, senior director of sales and fan services.
“The phone volume is out of control,” he said. “The level of interest is comparable back to when the team was in the playoffs — of the big years when there was a lot of Cal events going on.”

When free agency first hit baseball, some people thought it would destroy the game. Instead, fans wanted to come out and see what these high priced players could do, and interest in the game (and revenue) grew. Once again, fan interest is following the movement of the big names (and salaries).

February 28, 2004 February 27, 2004 February 27, 2004

Graphing Pitchers

Eric McErlain points me to this post by my favorite Canandian blogger, Colby Cosh. In the post, Colby creates a 2-D projection of the K/Inn, BB/Inn and HR/Inn of each ERA qualifying pitcher from 2003. Basically, if you are in the upper left corner of the graph, you’re very good.
Some observations:

  • Kevin Brown is located right between Clemens and Pettitte. He’s a good replacement for either.
  • Vazquez is better than both Clemens and Pettite, so he should be an upgrade for NY.
  • The Yankees are the only team with three pitchers in the upper left quadrant.
  • Tim Wakefield should be the Red Sox third starter, not Lowe.
  • The only difference between Mulder, Zito and Hudson is the number of people they walk.
  • Kerry Wood is an extreme outlier. He has the highest K per 9, but also walks a ton of batters. By this chart, Prior is clearly the #1 starter on the Cubs.
  • If you walk a lot of batters without striking many out, you don’t get enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.
  • If Clemens and Pettite can get Wade Miller to walk one less per 9, the Astros will have three pitchers in the upper left quadrant on their team this year.

Nice work from the Great White North!

February 27, 2004

Baseball Business

There are lots of great posts over at Doug’s Business of Baseball Blog. Start here and keep scrolling.
To comment on a couple of Doug’s posts, I find it interesting that in the article on the Minnesota stadium proposal, the extended tax isn’t a new tax. The tax was going to disappear. As a voter, I would be upset if a politician tried to pull that on me.
Doug also comments on HBO’s Milwaukee’s Best which aired the Brewer’s dirty laundry. Doug doesn’t believe the Brewers management has been corrupt of venal, just imcompetent. I say, why not all three?

February 27, 2004

Phoenix Rising

It’s amazing how a big cut in pay can get the competitive jucies flowing again:

Roberto Alomar spent more time than usual getting in shape over the winter, and arrived at spring training intent on a big comeback season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It will be his 17th season in the majors.
“I think I put on seven or eight pounds. I feel in much better shape,” Alomar said as he and the other Diamondbacks’ position players reported to spring training Thursday.
“The last few years I didn’t do what I needed to do to stay in shape,” he said. “I think at my age now, 36, you have to work more than you used to work before so you can stay in shape. This game is not as easy as people think it is.”

That last paragraph can’t make Mets fans too happy. Alomar denies it’s the money, but you I believe not being wanted by other teams hurt his pride. If he is back in shape, I suspect he’ll have a good year for the Diamondbacks, and be one of the steals of 2004.

February 26, 2004

Tore the Cover Off the Ball

The Bartman Ball is no more. They blew it up real good. The ball blew apart, leaving nothing but the cord in a pile at the bottom of the blast chamber. I must admit, it was pretty cool. I liked the way the ball jumped off it’s holder for a second, then ripped itself apart. I’m glad that the remnants are still around, so the remains can be viewed for all time.

February 26, 2004

Bernie’s Right Side

Bernie Williams is having an appendectomy. Torre doubts he’ll be back in time for opening day. I actually find this a bit surprising, since appendectomies are pretty non-invasive these days. However, the person most likely to benefit from this is Travis Lee. I would think with Bernie out of the picture, the Yankees will use Giambi at DH and Lee at first.
Update: In related news, the Yankees have released Aaron Boone.

February 26, 2004

For All It’s Worth

Brian over at Rock’em Schnockem thinks that Steve Bartman isn’t making enough of his foul ball fame.

Bartman — When they blow up your ball today, you should be pushing that button. Imagine the feeling! We can’t all make oodles of money AND exorcise our past at the same time. Sure, I could go back to West Point and flip off the Superintendant, but that’s on my dime, and all it would get me is stranded in frikkin’ New York. I could go back to a high school reunion and say to Erin Schreck, “Damn you were hot and I was a dunce”, but all that would get me is stranded in frikkin’ Iowa next to a gal laughing at my bald head. You see — you (Bartman) were handed this steaming pile from on high, and have done nothing with it, other than hope it goes away.

Update: You can watch the ball be destroyed on MSNBC tonight at about 8:30 PM, EST. Keith Olbermann hosts, so at least they’ll have someone who knows a lot about baseball history.

February 26, 2004 February 26, 2004

Burning Leather

Athletics Nation wants a ball desctruction moment of its own.

The A’s need to track down Jeremy Giambi’s shoes. You know the ones that kept him upright in 2001 when he represented the tying run of that Barry Zito gem. The ones that likely cost the A’s a possible World Series championship that season.
I’m convinced now that it was those shoes that has started this spiral (even though we lost in 2000, our team was much younger and less experienced and also featured Gil Heredia), this horrible downward spiral of postseason misery the A’s have experienced. While we’re at it, get Miggy’s shoes and Eric Byrnes’ shoes circa 2003 ALDS and let’s make it a cleat-burning extravaganza.

I’m actually sad they are blowing up the Bartman ball. It’s a piece of baseball history that is going to be lost. Maybe they should just give it to the Marlins for enshrinement in Pro Player Stadium. 🙂

February 26, 2004 February 26, 2004 February 26, 2004

Drafting

The Bench Coach links to an interview with Paul DePodesta on Baseball America, and comes away with the impression that DePodesta will be more flexible in drafting high school players than the Oakland A’s were. I found something very interesting in the article also (Emphasis added):

Whether Los Angeles outdrafted Oakland in the last two years and has a better farm system?we rank the Dodgers second, the A’s 17th?is, for now, a subjective opinion. DePodesta prefers cold, hard facts.
Which is fine with White. He believes in analyzing data from past drafts to find ways to do his job better. The Dodgers have done studies similar to the one Baseball America did last spring, which showed that high school picks yield a higher percentage of above-average big league regulars and stars than college choices.
“Paul likes research and reasons, and I’m into statistics and analysis too,” White says. “He’s open if you can prove to him what you’re saying is accurate. I’ll have information to show him.”

Now, the draft is not one of my strong points, but the way I understand the research I’ve seen, is that it’s perfectly fine to draft position players out of high school, but high school pitchers are a huge risk. In general, the younger a hitter is when he gets to the majors, the more likely he is to have a terrific career. But pitchers seem to do better in the majors when they’ve gone through college. So it’s perfectly reasonable to have a mixed draft strategy.

February 26, 2004

First Impressions

Vladimir Guerrero made a good impression on the Angels and batting practice balls yesterday in the Angels first full workout.

Showing no sign of the back injury that limited him to 112 games with Montreal last season, Guerrero was swinging the bat smoothly and mostly making solid contact Wednesday as he joined his new teammates for their first full-squad drills.
“It feels good. I’ve been working on my back, so everything’s OK,” the 28-year-old Guerrero said through an interpreter.

What a steal for the Angels.

February 26, 2004 February 26, 2004 February 25, 2004

The Other Zim

The Rangers have everyone in camp, including Jeff Zimmerman:

Still, one of the highlights for Showalter was watching Zimmerman throw batting practice.
Zimmerman, who missed the past two seasons because of a right elbow injury that required reconstructive surgery, threw for eight minutes to Brian Jordan, Brad Fullmer, Laynce Nix and Ken Huckaby.
“We’re happy to get to that point,” Showalter said. “He’s talking about mechanics, talking about grips, talking about stuff that pitchers talk about in spring training other than the health of his arm.”
After making the All-Star team as a rookie in 1999 and having 28 saves in 31 chances in 2001, Zimmerman got a $10 million, three-year contract. He got hurt the next spring and hasn’t pitched for Texas since.

A healthy Zimmerman will be a boon to the Texas pitching staff. Glad to see he’s recovering.

February 25, 2004

Dynamic Duo

Rich Lederer and Alex Belth team up to give you a rather long history of Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter over at Bronx Banter. One paragraph reminded me of something:

Jeter is a major star, a sex symbol. Williams looks like a bookworm and is a family man. Jeter is Spiderman and Bernie is Peter Parker. Jeter is the cool extrovert and Williams is the thoughtful introvert. Jeter does little things that get noticed while Williams is easy to overlook. Recall the infamous Jeffrey Maier game against the Orioles in the 1996 ALCS which made the rookie Jeter a household name. It was Williams? home run in extra innings that actually won the game for the Yanks, but who remembers that? Many of us just remember that?s the night that some lucky kid made another lucky kid a star.

As you may know, Jeff Maier is now playing for Wesleyan University. They are hosting Amherst on Saturday, March 27 at 1 PM, a double header. I’m planning on attending, and if I’m lucky, maybe I can get an interview with Jeff.

February 25, 2004 February 25, 2004 February 24, 2004 February 24, 2004 February 24, 2004

Ticket Prices

Juan Vilafane makes, I believe, a flawed argument in his comment to this post on baseball economics:

I’m a yankee fan, but what there doing is ridiculous. when does the roof come in to play? higher team salaries mean higher ticket prices. Higher ticket prices mean less and less middle and poor people being able to attend games. that cant be good after all there is a hell of a lot more middle class and poor people than there is rich. isnt there? put a 100 million dollar cap for every team and bring prices down. after all how many good to great games have you seen since teams began passing the 100 million mark?

Juan has this backward. Higher salaries don’t drive ticket prices higher. Higher ticket prices drive salaries higher. And what drives ticket prices up? Higher demand. As long as the Yankees are drawing over 3 million fans a year, their ticket prices seem about right to me. If the Yankees were to cut the payroll to $100,000,000 and still have a winning team, they would not cut their ticket prices one bit. There is no reason to do so. They would just make more money. It seems to me the Yankees make so much money that they can just concentrate on winning. Lower ticket prices with the same demand would just mean the scalpers would make more money.

February 24, 2004

Sabermetrics vs. Psychology

The other day I referred to an article about the Orioles use of psychological tests to help them select players. In the article, they talk about Arthur Rhodes:

Meanwhile, Flanagan had become the Orioles’ pitching coach. In 1995, while struggling to find a role for talented, inconsistent Arthur Rhodes, he sought from Ritterpusch’s advice. He said Rhodes’ psychological testing indicated he should neither start nor close, roles the Orioles wanted him to fill.
Rhodes was made into a middle reliever and setup man, and is still pitching in the major leagues today.

So what is Arthur Rhodes going to be doing this year? Closing for the A’s. What Beane sees is someone who strikes out a lot of batters, doesn’t walk too many, and keeps the ball in the park. In other words, he does the three things pitchers can control very well. So Rhodes will be an interesting data point for a sabermetrics vs. psychology debate.
Does talent matter more than makeup? In the past I would have said yes. But I’m willing to be open minded about the subject. Rhodes won’t prove anything by himself, but we will be able to watch the Orioles starters, closers and middle relievers from now on, so we should get a good idea of how this theory plays out.

February 23, 2004

Bonds In Camp

I’ve seen a couple of stories about Bonds reporting to camp, but none tell me what I want to know; does he look thinner?
Update: Once again, I’ve written something that has been misconstrued. I meant this as a smart-alec comment. All winter long I’ve been reading and hearing about how these ballplayers are going to come back thinner, and we finally see one of the big suspects and the writers don’t even put in a line about how he looks! If you read my previous posts on the subject, you’ll see I don’t really think you can tell the difference between steriods and physical therapy. I agree with John’s comment:

Does anybody here know for sure that a steroid user who stops juicing will lose muscle mass? Are the steroids necessary to *maintain* said mass? I find it hard to believe that it’s even possible to lose 25 pounds of muscle in 4 months even if you tried HARD, let alone just by laying off of very specific mass-enhancing substances. Ask Roy Jones Jr. about how easy it is to lose muscle and you may have second thoughts about the idea of muscle just evaporating – or being pooped out or whatever.

If you keep up your weight training, you should retain your muscle mass. You don’t blow up overnight; you have to exercise with the steroids. And you don’t deflate overnight either, especially if you keep up the work. The description of Giambi is just what I’d expect if you had gone through intense physical therapy for the knee. Remember Nancy Kerrigan? She skated her best after going through knee rehabilitation. Don’t be surprised to see Giambi have a great year. Sounds like he’s lean and mean to me.