This post on how troops are making golf more interesting reminds me of an old Mad Magazine piece by Al Jaffe called The Mad Game of Basebrawl. Jaffe had defensive and offensive teams on the field at the same time. The offensive team would try to interfere with the fielders trying to put the batter out. The batter could carry his bat as he ran the bases and could pick up blockers as he went along. It was a pretty silly idea, but a very funny piece. In fact, I believe that was the spoof that started me reading Mad regularly.
Monthly Archives: May 2004
New Lowe
Derek Lowe was knocked around again today. The Orioles scored seven runs in 5+ innings (the first five Orioles reached in the 5th against Lowe). As far as I can tell, the main thing Derek is doing differently is walking more batters. Take a look at this chart:
| Derek Lowe | BB/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2.0 | 2.58 |
| 2003 | 3.2 | 4.47 |
| 2004 | 4.4 | 6.84 |
When Lowe doesn’t have his control, he walks batters. When he walks batters, he has to get pitches into the strike zone, and he has to do that by throwing the ball higher in the zone. And Derek’s high pitches are hittable. Is there are real difference in Lowe, or have batters realized they take the low pitch and have it called a ball?
A Man in Uniform
Somehow, Nick Johnson doesn’t look like Babe Ruth in an Expos uniform.
Bite Out of Crime
Fred McGriff has hit his first HR of the season, giving him 492 for his career. He’s trying to get to 500 before he retires. I wonder if the 500 HR mark will really make a difference to HOF voters? Why would McGriff be anymore or less of a HOF candidate with 500 than 491? I’d love to see a discussion involving a number of reporters in which they are asked to defend or attack the Hall of Fame credentials of McGriff and Palmeiro. The voters need to have this debate, because it’s becoming clear that certain milestones are no longer a reliable indicator of career greatness.
BaseballMusings.com would be happy to host the discussion on-line.
History Repeating
Those of you who don’t read the Boston Red Sox fan web sites on a daily basis may not be aware of what seems to be a repeat of the 1982 battle for third base in Boston. Carney Lansford won the AL batting title playing third for the Red Sox in 1981. The next year, he broke his ankle, and walk machine Wade Boggs started playing regularly. Boggs was so much obviously better than Lansford that Carney was traded at the end of the regular season for Tony Armas. There were clear advantages in keeping Boggs over Lansford; Boggs walked more, he was left-handed, and he was a year younger. Lansford was a good hitter for the A’s. Boggs was a great hitter for Boston.
Now the Red Sox are faced with an injured Bill Mueller, and Kevin Youkilis playing very well. Things are not as cut and dried as they were with Boggs and Lansford. Yes, Youkilis walks a lot, but Mueller is no slouch in that department. Mueller has a .375 career OBA, an excellent number in any era. Mueller is a switch hitter, while Youkilis is a righty. Youkilis wins big in the age department, however, being eight years younger than Mueller.
It’s a good problem to have; good hitting third basemen are hard to come by. My guess is that, unlike 1982, Theo will find room for both on the roster.
Back to Normal
The Expos are batting Livan Hernandez in the traditional 9th spot today.
Ohka Eighth
In looking at how poorly Joe Valentine started the game yesterday, I failed to notice that Frank Robinson batted Tomo Ohka, the pitcher, 8th. It’s an unusual strategy, but one that was tried by Tony La Russa a few years ago. If you didn’t know, there is some mathematical basis for this lineup.
Bruce Bukiet at the New Jersey Institute of Technology has done simulations that have convinced him that the last spot is not the best spot for the pitcher.
My colleagues and I studied the 1989 National League to ascertain principles common to optimal lineups and reduce the number of lineups we needed to test. We ranked players by Scoring Index – the number of runs a team would score on average if it had 9 copies of the given player. Interestingly, we found that the slugger – the player with the highest Scoring Index – should bat second or third on 3/4 of the teams and bat fourth on only 1/4 of the teams considered. We also found that the pitcher should almost never bat last. (These two findings are, of course, not in keeping with the way most managers construct their lineups.)
(You can download a postscript version of the research paper here.) To sum up his conclusions, the worst hitter should be as far away in the lineup from the best hitter as possible. So if you bat your best hitter in the top 3, you don’t want a pitcher batting ninth, because that is going to reduce the rbi opportunities for your best hitter. He basically endorses the strategy that some AL teams use with the DH of putting a 2nd leadoff type hitter in the ninth spot.
When I first heard of this work, I was skeptical. I thought that giving extra plate appearances to poor hitters would do more harm than the extra rbi opps for the best hitters would help. But using the runs created formula and figuring how many runs would be gained and lost by switching the 8 and 9 hitters around, you don’t lose that much. Jamey Carroll did have a hit, a walk and a run scored from the ninth spot yesterday. I don’t think it makes all that much difference if you bat the pitcher 8th or 9th, but for a poor offensive team like Montreal, anything is worth a try.
Memorial Day
On this Memorial Day I want to remember all my readers and their compatriots who are serving or have served in our armed forces for their dedication, service and sacrifice. Thank you for your commitment to a dangerous and harrowing task. I salute you.
Psychological Pitchers
Back in February, I noted an article about the Orioles using psychological tests to help determine who would make good pitchers, and what in what roles those pitchers would be most comfortable. Almost two months into the season, I thought it would be interesting to go back and revisit that story. Unfortunately, the Baltimore Sun link has expired, and you have to pay to get to the story. Nonetheless, so far, I’d say this method isn’t working. The Orioles are last in AL in ERA, and are trailed only by the Colorado Rockies. Now, it could be that this method is great, and the Orioles haven’t had time to implement it fully. But from the original story, they have used it some over the years. In fact they used it to make Arthur Rhodes a set up man.
Well, Rhodes was moved into the closer role with the A’s this year. He’s doing okay. He’s saved 8 of 11, which is okay. His ERA is about the same as last year. He’s striking out more batters, but he’s also walking more and allowing more HR. But overall, he hasn’t been a disaster as a closer.
So far, the scorecard has the Orioles psychology 0-2. When you introduce a new method, it’s not good for it to be a miserable failure in it’s first season. It tends to make others think it doesn’t work.
In their 1991 Major League Handbook, STATS, Inc. first offered projections for the next season based on Bill James’ work, including projections for minor league players who might make the big team in 1991. When Peter Gammons reviewed the book, he noted that STATS had predicted that Jeff Bagwell would win the NL batting title in 1991. Bagwell didn’t win the batting title, but he had a great rookie season. As Bill James told me later, if Bagwell hadn’t played well in 1991, no one would have believed in the validity of the system.
So my guess is a lot of baseball people are going to be pooh-poohing the Orioles use of these tests. That’s too bad, because I believe it’s going to take a while to see if these really work.
Funny Valentine
Joe Valentine made his first appearance this season for the Reds, starting against the Expos. He didn’t get the Reds “pitch to contact” memo however, as he walked five batters in 1 inning and two batters. What’s really strange of course, is that he’s walked five against the Expos! Montreal last in the NL in walks with 109; you really have to be wild to walk five Expos.
Game of the Day
The Angels and the White Sox play the rubber game of their series in Chicago this afternoon. Both teams have put a little breathing room between themselves and the competition. The White Sox lead the Twins by two games, and the Angels are ahead of both Texas and Oakland by 3 1/2.
John Lackey will start for the Angels. The White Sox appear to be a team designed just for him. While Lackey has been successful against righties this year (.250 OBA, .349 slugging), lefties have just pounded him (.394 OBA, .509 slugging). Luckily, the White Sox roster has a distinct lack of left-handed power. Jose Valentin is the only legitimate lefty power threat on the team.
Scott Schoenweis will take the mound for the pale hose. His high number of walks allowed are somewhat offset by his low number of extra-base hits allowed. You don’t hear much about the Chicago rotation, but their top four starters all have ERA’s between 3.45 and 3.93. The over starting ERA is 4.39, which is 3rd in the AL, but most teams would love to have four starters that consistent.
Enjoy!
Lite Cleanup
My good friend Jim Storer called me to point out that the Marlins were starting Lenny Harris as the clean up hitter tonight. Lenny Harris, who has a .349 career slugging percentage. That’s not even a great on-base average! Why? As far as I can tell, Cabrera is out of the lineup, and Harris is playing right in Miguel’s stead. So of course, he has to bat in the same place; we wouldn’t want to upset the rest of the order and we wouldn’t want to move Choi up to a spot where his power would do more good.
This reminds me of how John McNamara used to bat Ed Romero leadoff when Boggs was out of the lineup. Can’t these managers think?
Low Offense
Coming into today, the Twins are 9th in OBA and 9th in runs scored. Looking at the lineup, Lew Ford is great with an OBA over .400, but Jacque Jones is the only other player over .330. Some help should be on the way, as Joe Mauer has started his rehab assignment. He’s already impressed the Rochester press.
Half a Staff
The Indians have three pitchers on the AL top ten list of ERA leaders. Sabathia, Lee and Westbrook all have ERAs under 3.45. Yet, the Indians have one of the highest staff ERAs in the AL. At 5.11, their team ERA is 13th, only the Orioles at 5.41 are worse (a post on that number will be coming soon). The main problem for the Indians is in the bullpen, where the ERA is 6.29, 1 1/2 runs higher than any other AL team. White and Betancourt, have been okay with ERAs in the 3.70s. But from Betancourts 3.75, you jump to Jack Cressend and his 6.32 ERA.
So the Indians have five dependable pitchers. What can they do? If you look at the AAA numbers, there doesn’t seem to be much help there either. AA looks better, but are the Indians ready to rush these kids to the majors?
They’re best bet may just be to try to win the three games their good pitchers start. Save your best relievers for those games, and just take your chances with the other two. It’s not a perfect strategy, but winning 3 out of 5 will get you into the playoffs most years.
Game of the Day
It says a lot about the Seattle Mariners offense that Freddy Garcia is leading the AL in ERA, but has a 2-3 record. He’ll face the man in The Prisoner’s spot on the ERA list, Tim Wakefield. Garcia has pitched three games this year in which he allowed no more than one run, and did not get a decision. (Five times he’s gone at least 7 allowing 1 run or less). Wakefield has been showing great control with the knuckle ball this year; his career walks per 9 is 3.6; in 2004 it’s 2.7.
And of course, it’s a special day at Fenway because the author of Bambino’s Curse will be in the stands.
Enjoy!
Baby Boom
Rob Mackowiak had a big day yesterday; birth of a son in the morning, a walk off grand slam in game 1, and a game tying HR in the bottom of the ninth of game two. This has other Pirates thinking.
In the locker stall next door, Wilson sat amazed: “Good friend has a kid. Goes deep twice in a night. Two walk-off homer victories. Pretty good night.
“Some of us are going to be talking to the doctor to see if we can have kids now, too.”
There were five walk-off HR’s last night, including one by Barry Bonds. It was good to see the Rockies pitch to Bonds with a man on first and two outs. It looks bad when it doesn’t work, but I still feel it’s the right strategy. Giants have won seven in a row.
Risky Play
I’m watching the bottom of the ninth in the Cubs-Pirates game, and a very interesting play leading off the inning. Tike Redman hits a fly ball to deep center, but not terribly deep center. Redman thought it was going to be an out, and didn’t get a good jump out of the batter’s box. But Patterson was playing shallow, and got a bad jump, too. About three steps out of the batter’s box, Tike turned on the jets. The ball went over Patterson’s head, and Redman headed for third (the Pirates were down 1 run). It was one of those decisions that baserunners make where they have to be right. Redman wasn’t, but he was lucky that the throw was off line. A good throw would have nailed him. Both Nunez and Kendall have followed with singles, so in hindsight the extra base wasn’t worth it. But the score is tied 5-5.
Update: With no outs and Nunez on third, Jack Wilson hit a short fly to center. Patterson made a terrific catch, but fell down. Nunez didn’t tag, otherwise he’d have score easily. Two base running blunders. One cost them, one didn’t.
Update: Rob Mackowiak doesn’t leave anything to chance as he hits a grand slam to end the game and give the Pirates a 9-5 victory. It was nice to see the crowd was really into it as well.
Game of the Day
Tonight’s another good chance for the Mets to show they belong in the NL East race. After splitting a series from the Phillies, the Mets travel south to face the Fish in Florida. A nice matchup of lefties as the rejuvenated Tom Glavine faces the youngster Dontrelle Willis. Last time out, Dontrelle was outpitched by another old lefty having a great season, Randy Johnson. Willis is only 1-3 in five starts at Pro Player Stadium this year, and opponents are batting .339 against him in his home park.
Opposition batters have shown no power against Glavine this year. He’s holding batters to a .285 slugging percentage. Watch for the matchup with Mike Redmond. He’s 21 for 42 against Glavine lifetime.
Enjoy!
Correction: Mets and Phillies split a two game series.
Getting His Wings?
It looks like Mondesi has signed with the Angels, but I don’t understand this:
The former All-Star and Gold Glover said he got a $1.75 million contract for the rest of the season. He said he will make his debut in center field for the banged-up AL West leaders Sunday at Chicago.
“I’m very pleased with the agreement I reached with the Angels,” Mondesi said.
Angels spokesman Tim Mead said he could neither confirm nor deny Mondesi’s account.
Is he not confirming that Mondesi is an Angel, or just the terms of his contract?
Update: Jon Weisman has more on the Mondesi story. I have not been following it, I must admit, and didn’t realize that Mondesi lied to get out of his contract. Jon brings up an interesting scenario:
What has happened this month with Mondesi and the Pirates is truly rare. A team and a player can essentially agree, or be duped into agreeing, that they are a bad match and initiate a no-fault divorce.
When you think about it, it seems harmless to both parties (although it might not be to the team that ends up paying Mondesi, a player of equal parts talent and flaw, too much money). But think how often this happens. Pretty much never.
And now, perhaps, a significant precedent has been set.
Consider if a talented but underpaid player decides he isn’t satisfied with his contract. Say, I don’t know, Eric Gagne. Free agency is a couple of years away. But Gagne announces that he’s worried about a foreign invasion of Canada and heads home to protect his loved ones – though everyone knows this is a phony excuse.
Do the Dodgers suspend him – a suspension they might have to hold through the end of the 2006 season, when he becomes a free agent? Are they forced to renegotiate Gagne’s deal then and there? Or do they decide that it just ain’t worth fighting with a player that no longer wants to be here, and terminate his deal – allowing him to sign for big bucks with another team on the spot.
I believe there are more options than Jon has mentioned here. For example, Gagne can be traded. I remember Billy Sample telling me once that it was fairly easy to force a trade by your actions. Trading Gagne simply makes him someone else’s problem, but he’s not out of his contract, and at some point the club can take action against him for that breach.
The other thing, in the case of wealthy clubs, is that they can indeed sit on the contract. I don’t really know if Gagne can afford to sit out a year of baeball. It’s one thing to practice pitching; it’s another to actually do it. So if the Dodgers were to call his bluff and sit on the contract, Gagne is taking the chance that his skills might diminish in a year and a half of inactivity.
Actually, I wonder if Mondesi is really going to get away with this. As this comment on Jon’s site points out:
I would think that MLB in the form of the owners has an actionable tort here. They should be complaining to the commissioner that Moorad and Mondesi, by simple virtue of soliciting bids for a new contract, are invalidating the breach of the original contract. After all, if he was going to be able to play three weeks after he went on leave, there are negotiated procedures in place to protect his and the team’s rights. If he gets away with this, then every team is going to be hit with Operation Shutdown (I know that was different but the game’s the same), and this case will give the player precedent to get his contract terminated.
Rules to Win By
Tim Lynch sends this story from the NY Daily News about an 11-year-old who has been banned from pitching by an opponent because he’s too good.
“He [Anthony] blows away the competition, so he is what we consider an illegal player,” said Gambino.
Gambino noted Anthony has thrown a perfect game and two no-hitters against St. Athanasius players.
“He is an overwhelmingly, powerful pitcher. It’s a very unfair advantage,” Gambino said.
He said St. Athanasius is a church league that’s not affiliated with Little League, and therefore is not bound by its rules.
Gambino said St. Athanasius’ rules allow it to ban dominating pitchers from outside teams.
“He can come in here and hit 10 home runs a game. I don’t care, as long he he doesn’t pitch,” Gambino said.
In other words, Gambino doesn’t want his 11-year-olds to feel inadequate because they can’t hit Anthony Seblano. This has to be one of the silliest things I’ve ever heard. How can Mr. Gambino’s players ever expect to develop into good hitters if they don’t face good pitchers? One of the reasons for sports competition at this age is to find out who can throw strikes and who can’t, and who can hit a fastball and who can’t. Unless the St. Athanasius players face this guy, we won’t know if they can hit a fastball, and they won’t have a chance to develop that skill.
Baseball talent is normally distributed, like almost everything in life. At age 11, little league and church league and community league teams are going to be made up mostly of kids of average talent. So if one team has an outlier, like the young Mr. Seblano, he’s going to dominate. As these children grow up, the ones who aren’t too good tend to drop out and move on to other pursuits. With fewer people playing, there are fewer teams, and the talent starts concentrating. It’s harder for one player to dominate, but even in high school, the best athelete is often the best pitcher and hitter. As players age further, talent is concentrated further, first in the minors, then finally in the majors, where we see the upper tail of the normal curve playing.
So Mr. Gambino should welcome the challenge of Anthony Seblano. Make it into an event! Sell tickets so people in the neighborhood can come see a future major leaguer, and make some money for the church while you’re at it. But don’t tell your children they can’t compete against this guy because you think they’ll feel better. That’s the wrong lesson.
By the way, I love Anthony’s approach to pitching:
“Most of the time I just throw strikes. I never walk anybody,” Anthony said yesterday. “I really don’t think this is fair, because my teammates depend on me.”
If I’m a major league scout, I’m keeping my eye on him for the next seven years.
Good, Bad or Luck?
What does it mean to be a .500 team? Normally, we think of a .500 team as one that wins as many games as it loses, and that’s certainly a good definition. But a .500 team could also be a team that had an intrinsic .500 winning percentage. That is, a team that was like a fair coin, as likely to win as to lose.
Now, when you flip a fair coin a number of times, it’s not always going to come up heads and tails the same number of times. Sometimes, it’s not even going to be close. If you flip a coin 45 times, probability predicts that 95% of the time, you will get between 16 and 28 heads.
When a team that’s instriniscally .500 plays, the result of the games are like the flip of a coin. A win is heads, and a loss is tails. Now, most teams are about 45 games into the season, so we’d expect teams that are intrinsically .500 to have between 16 and 28 wins. As it turns out, all but three teams have between 16 and 28 wins! Does that mean that those 27 teams are intrinsically .500? No, but it does mean we can’t tell. A team that is 16-29 could really be an unlucky team that is intrinsically .500.
It also means that if you set up 30 teams that are really evenly matched, you could get standings like the ones you’ll read in the papers tomorrow morning by pure luck. That’s why when you see a team like San Diego playing well, or a team like Seattle playing badly maybe there’s been a change in talent, or maybe just a change in luck.
That’s why, when I see a team like Detroit, that’s playing better than it’s intrinsic winning percentage, I’d like to see them build on the luck by actually improving the team.
Power Pena
Carlos Pena went 6 for 6 today in the Tigers trouncing of the Royals today, including two home runs. However, even with the six hits, Pena’s stats are still not impressive. At the end of the game, his BA is .236, his OBA is .315 and his slugging percentage is .459. Those aren’t too far off his career averages. At 26 years old, it’s unlikely that he’s going to develop into a great player. At this point, he comes cheap, but isn’t it possible to find a cheap first baseman who can hit? The reality of the situation is that the Tigers are in a pennant race. They have an offensive hole at a position where it’s fairly easy to find offense. Should they go for it, just be happy to be close to .500. I always feel that when you have a chance to win, you should take it. Just for example, Marcus Thames is tearing up AAA. Why not give him a first baseman’s mitt and see if he can hit better than Pena?
The Tigers are playing better than they probably expected. They can be better by plugging an offensive hole at a place where it’s easy to fix. I think they should make a move and keep moving toward the division leaders.
Movin’ Up?
I wonder how long the Marlins will continue to bat Choi behind Conine. Hee Seop had 2 doubles today to raise his slugging percentage to .565 and his OBA to .382. Conine is only slugging .404. With Lowell adn Cabrera doing such a good job of getting on base, it would be wise to put Choi right behind them, to give the big first basmen more opportunites to bat with men on, the situation in which his power is most effective.
Bradley Blast
Not surprisingly, the player I highlight as the poster child for the Dodger’s poor offense hits a 420 ft. HR. Milton Bradley went deep against Ben Sheets, and the Dodgers are now only down 2-1. Sheets is pitching a great game, with 8 K and no walks through seven innings. He’s at 109 pitches; we’ll see how many he’s allowed to throw today.
Update: Kieschnick is on in the 8th. Another great start by Sheets.
More Doug
Games of the Day
Ben Sheets could be in for a good afternoon as the Brewers finish up their three-game series with the Dodgers. Los Angeles has only scored 32 runs in their last 12 games for a 2-10 record. Sheets has had a great month of May, striking out 35 in 30 innings while walking only 8 and posting a 2.40 ERA. It’s starting to look like the Indians did the right thing in getting rid of Milton Bradley, also. He had a good April, but his power has fallen off in May (.361 slugging percentage), and his main strength, getting on baes, isn’t there either. His .421 OBA of last year is starting to look like a fluke.
Probably the best pitching matchup of the day is in Chicago, where Ryan Drese of the Rangers faces Mark Buehrle of the White Sox. Drese has done a very good job this year of keeping the heart of the order in check. The 3-4-5 hitters are batting just .209 against Ryan, and slugging a mere .290. Part of Buehrle’s success is that his strikeout rate this season is about 2 per 9 higher than his career numbers. He’s had three great starts in a row in which he’s struck out 21 in 20 2/3 innings while walking just 4.
Enjoy!
Going Main Stream
Good new about the Boston Dirt Dogs over at Bambino’s Curse. They’ve been acquired by Boston.com. Maybe now they’ll have permalinks!
International Front
Bay Watch
The San Francisco Giants have climbed back into the race in the NL West. Although 3 games under .500, the Giants are in third place, 3 1/2 games out of first place. One big reason is that they now have the pitching staff in control. In April, it seemed like they couldn’t get an out, allowing a 5.55 ERA. They’ve almost knocked two runs off that in May, down to 3.66. They has more than made up for a fall in offense of .5 runs during the same time period. With Bonds starting to hit again, that may change as well.
Schmidt, Tomko and Hermanson have all pitched well for the starters this month, although Schmidt is the only one with a win for his efforts. Rodriguez and Walker have anchored the bullpen. Herges has saved 6 of 7, despite an ERA over 6.00. If the Giants can maintain this level of pitching, they can win the west with a small increase in offense.
Youthful Ward
Daryle Ward hit for the cycle last night in the 11-8 Pirates victory. His father Gary also hit for the cycle, making them the first father-son combination to accomplish the feat. It was Daryl’s first triple since 2000.