Monthly Archives: December 2004

December 31, 2004

Kell Krash

George Kell is in the hospital recovering after an auto accident.

Baseball Hall of Famer George Kell is hospitalized and will need some physical therapy after breaking his left leg and left arm in a car crash, his wife said Friday.
Carolyn Kell said her 82-year-old husband was “doing very well” but remained hospitalized following a crash Tuesday with a tractor-trailer.

Not a fun way to spend new year’s eve. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery. In case you’re not up on George Kell, here’s a account of the 1949 AL Batting Race, where Kell beat out Ted Williams on the last day of the season. Notice that even without an internet and cell phones, information found it’s way to the right people. 🙂

December 31, 2004

Different Deal

As mentioned last night, it looks like the Yankees and Diamondbacks have completed the deal for Randy Johnson.

But for all intents and purposes, the most-anticipated trade of the offseason is complete. The Bombers will send Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro and the $9 million, which will be paid out in increments over the next couple of years, to the D-Backs in exchange for the five-time Cy Young winner that George Steinbrenner has coveted for years.
The inclusion of Navarro, a 20-year-old catcher, was critical since the D-Backs — who already have a premier catching prospect in Koyie Hill — also are looking to trade for Dodgers slugger Shawn Green. Navarro was a player the Dodgers specifically requested when they got involved in three-way talks with the Yanks and Arizona last week, ultimately backing out at the 11th hour of the blockbuster exchange that included Green, Brad Penny, Vazquez and Johnson.

The big difference (as far as the Yankees are concerned) is that Brad Halsey is going instead of Eric Duncan. I really don’t like it when the Yankees trade young lefties with good strikeout rates. I didn’t like the Al Leiter deal, I didn’t like the Ted Lilly deal. But the Yankees are no longer in the mode of the early 1990’s where they are willing to sit back and let their prospects develop. They want to win today. And with Johnson, they have a pitcher capable of dominating any opponent. The Yankees could wind up 15 to 20 games over .500 when Johnson pitches this season; it’s fairly easy to make the playoffs when you just have to be a bit over .500 in 80% of your games.
The Yankees and Johnson will negotiate a two-year extension; does that mean he’ll get this year and another year, or two more years on the existing contract? I know the Big Unit is great, but that’s a lot of money for a 40+ year old.
And it appears the DBacks will turn Vazquez and Navarro around, so the trade will end up looking a lot like the original deal with the exception of Vazquez ending up on the east coast. Until those deals are complete, it’s difficult to judge this trade for Arizona.
But the value of this trade for the Yankees hinges on Johnson’s health. If they win the World Series this season, it will go a long way toward justifying the deal. If they get a couple of more good seasons out of Randy, then it’s fine. But if Johnson breaks down and Halsey is solid, it will have been a colossal waste of money and talent.
Monday April 4 is the Yankees home opener vs. the Red Sox. Schilling probably won’t be ready. So it looks like the weekend of May 27th is the earliest they can face each other. And since the clubs not only open, but close the season against each other what could be better than Johnson and Schilling on the last day of the season for a playoff spot? It’s going to be another fun year on the I-95 corridor.

December 30, 2004

Big Deal In the Bronx?

It’s been rumored for a while and talked about for days, but it looks like the Yankees have finally done it. Tino Martinez is returning to the Bronx. I love the opening of the article:

The Yankees won four titles with Tino Martinez manning first base from 1996-2001. They haven’t won a ring, however, since Martinez left the Bronx after the 2001 season.

Interestingly enough, Tino’s best year was 1997, the year the Yankees got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. He was a solid player for NY, but he hasn’t had a 20 win share season since he left the big apple. He’s also showing the classic sign of aging; his walks are going up as he tries to compensate for lack of bat speed by being more selective. It won’t be long before pitchers realize what’s going on and start taking advantage of it.
If the Yankees are hiring him as a late inning defensive replacement/part time first baseman, that’s fine. If they believe he can contribute a lot as an everyday player, I doubt it. For the life of me, I can’t understand why every team in the majors doesn’t have a young big bopper at first in AAA just for these situations. I’d much rather pay a 22-year-old $300,000 to be below average than $2 million to an old vet.
Oh, and by the way, it looks like the Randy Johnson deal will get done, also. 🙂

December 30, 2004

Little Birdie Talking

The Talk Arena links with news that the Cardinals have reached an agreement with Robbie Alomar. As reported earlier, Robbie’s back has been bothering him so much he couldn’t play winter ball. Still, Jeff Gordon thinks it’s a good signing. He lists Alomar’s problems, then compares him to Larry Walker.

On the other hand, we heard that Walker was on the decline before his arrival in St. Louis. We heard he could no longer get around on the fastball.
We heard that Walker was incapable or unwilling to stay in the lineup. We saw how eager Colorado was to unload him, eating a big chunk of his remaining contract to finalize a trade with the Cards.
The Rockies just didn?t give Walker away, they paid the Cards to take Larry off their hands.
And you saw what happened. Given a happy home ahead of Albert Pujols in the batting order, Walker regained his All-Star form.

Last year, I thought the DBacks got a steal signing him for $1 million. But Avkash in the comments got it right.

Having seen him up close the past two seasons, its clear to me that he is absolutely overmatched at the plate. He can no longer turn anything over 90 MPH into a basehit, and he can’t turn anything into an extra base hit. If he’s hitting right handed, be happy he only makes one out, and doesn’t ground into a double play or something.

There are better ways to spend $500,000.

December 30, 2004

Laugh-In

I just noticed the Sidney Ponson story this morning. It appears to be a combination of “Here come de judge,” and “Sock it to me!” that has landed Sir Sidney in jail.

According to police reports, Ponson was confronted on the beach Saturday by a group of people who asserted he had harassed them by recklessly operating his personal watercraft. In the ensuing altercation, Ponson allegedly struck a man in the face, then fled the scene. The alleged victim, who turned out to be a local judge named W. Noordhuizen, was hospitalized, and Ponson was later taken into police custody.

Ponson was/is an island hero. My guess is he’d be very easy to recognize. And hitting a judge just isn’t a good idea. They tend to be friends with judges who might hear your case.
In his defense, it’s not clear who threw the first punch.

“The people on the beach apparently told him, ‘Come here,’ ” Lejuez said. “They invited him to discuss the matter. So he went to the beach to discuss the matter. He did not go to the beach to fight. But once he was on the beach, the fight started. . . . One of them tried to hit him, and that’s when the fight started.”
Once the fight began, two people described by Lejuez as friends of Ponson’s came to his defense. Lejuez said he has seen their statements to police, and they are “very similar” to Ponson’s statement.

While hitting a judge is mistake, my guess is Sidney didn’t know at whom he was swinging. But hitting a professional athlete is just plain stupid. I wonder if Sidney took Crash’s advice and used his left hand to throw the punch?
It was a bad year on the field for Ponson and it’s ending as a bad year off the field, too. Are there undubbings?

December 29, 2004

Hoffman Honored

Congratulations to Trevor Hoffman, this year’s winner of the Hutch Award.

Hoffman, the 40th winner of the Hutch Award, was recognized for returning last season and recording 41 saves after missing almost all of the 2003 season following two rounds of shoulder surgery as well as his involvement in the community.

Hoffman didn’t miss a beat as he struck out nearly a batter an inning and was stingier than usual in issuing walks. He’s just 7 saves away from 400 and will be just the third pitcher to reach that plateau. With two good seasons, he’ll set the all-time save mark.

December 28, 2004

Firefox Fix

People were reporting a problem with viewing this blog in FireFox. Thanks to Josh and Steve, that problem has been resolved. Please let me know if there are any other browser issues.

December 28, 2004

Eric’s a Red

I had a long post written on Eric Milton and the Reds, but my browser crashed. I’ll try to do a shorter version of the same post.
Milton chose the Reds because of the player moves they’ve made. They obviously want to win.

The Reds traded for starter Ramon Ortiz Dec. 14, signed right-handed relievers Ben Weber and David Weathers the next day, signed left-handed reliever Kent Mercker Dec. 20 and third baseman Joe Randa Dec. 21.
If that flurry of activity hadn’t happened, Milton wouldn’t have considered the Reds.
“Obviously that’s what you want to see,” he said. “They were in first place a lot of last year. Then they tried to improve.”

So the moves that impressed him were four old guys and Ramon Ortiz, who isn’t young. Only Mercker has been great recently, and that’s after a long stretch of poor pitching. Ortiz gives up too many HR, Randa doesn’t hit enough of them. Weber was demoted to triple A last season, and Weathers has had one good three-year stretch in an otherwise long and uneventful career.
Signing Carlos Beltran is wanting to win. Signing these aging players is hoping for a good year on the cheap. Both Ortiz and Milton have a tendancy to allow HR, and so far Great American Ballpark has favored HR hitters. My guess is that the Reds didn’t have as much competition for Milton as they thought. They gave him a good deal and he took it. The Reds moves are a nice excuse, but if Milton really wanted to win, he would have taken less money from the Yankees.

December 28, 2004

Lap Of Luxury

The Yankees got the bill for their share of the luxury tax yesterday, and it’s a whopper.

According to figures obtained by The Associated Press, the Yankees, whose payroll was a record $187.9 million, must pay $25,062,352 in luxury tax. The Yankees also estimate a $60 million revenue-sharing payment they must send to the commissioner’s office by the end of next month.

The Red Sox and Angels will add another $4 million to the luxury tax pool. According to this summary of the CBA:

Luxury tax money to be used for player benefits, the industry growth fund, or player development in countries lacking organized high school baseball. The owners had originally demanded a 50% luxury tax on payrolls over $98 million.

That’s a good chunk of money to promote baseball. I bet if the money had gone to clubs at the lowest end of the payroll spectrum, the Boss would be less willing to pay the tax.
The $60 million revenue sharing payment will go to other clubs, but I’m not sure how much. What I don’t know is if that includes shared local revenue as well as Central Fund Revenue sharing. But it looks like clubs at the lower end of the financial ladder will be receiving a few million dollars each, enough to keep a few good youngsters around.

December 28, 2004

Testing

I’m testing out a couple of new blog services. Art.com has an affiliates program. If you click on the Art.com ad and buy something, this site will get a commission. They have a large number of baseball related prints.
Jittery.com is testing a new auction system for blogs. Since I have no merchandise to sell, I thought I’d try something different. You can bid on a dedication to appear in a post on this blog. Unlike dedicating a song on a radio station, this is something that will be around a long time (since I plan to write this blog until the keyboard is pryed from my cold, dead hands). A great gift for your favorite baseball fan!
Scroll down the sidebar if you’re interested in either of these items. And thanks in advance.

December 27, 2004

The Pedro Effect

Soxblog does some research to show why he thinks Pedro Martinez won’t have that much of an effect on Mets attendance. I disagree with James on this one. When the Mets are good, they’ll draw between 33,000 and 36,000 fans a game. If Pedro is as good as I suspect he’ll be a Shea, he should boost the Mets W-L record. If it’s enough of a boost to put the Mets into contention for the wild card, then fans will come out to all the games the Mets are playing.
But the Mets have to win. There seems to be a two year lag in the Mets performance and their attendance increasing/decreasing. They started winning in 1997, and had a big jump in 1999. They returned to being mediocre in 2001, and the attendance fell in 2003. Attendance will be up if the Mets win, but Pedro could be the catalyst that brings the big jump sooner.

December 27, 2004

Thanks

I just wanted to say thanks for the donation over the weekend. It’s a nice Christmas present. Donations are always welcome; you can use PayPal or the Amazon Honor System. Just scroll down; the links are on the sidebar.

December 27, 2004

Roberto’s Back

In yesterday’s post about the Puerto Rican Winter Leagues, I noticed this item (emphasis added).

Bithorn Stadium, just 10 minutes south of San Juan, has struggled to draw even nominal attendance despite a renovated stadium and the presence of Crabbers infielders Alomar and Carlos Baerga (who doubles as team president). A recent injury to Alomar has helped curtail interest, but ardent fans say the team’s problems ? as well as the league’s and, by extension, Puerto Rico’s ? run much deeper.

I couldn’t find anything about it on the web, so I contacted Edwin Rodriguez who runs the web page for the winter league. He filled in some details:

Alomar started the season in Puerto Rico already under treatment for his lower back. At least once a week he was flying to the states (don’t know where) to get treatment. After the second week of the season it was too much for him, his back wasn’t in good shape.
That much I can tell you, I was asking the same when he left but nobody knew the specifics.

This is the same back injury that kept him out of action most of September. I was wondering why there’s been so little interest in him, and I guess this was the reason. Could his career be over?
It would be sad if that were so, with Robbie only 276 hits from 3000. That’s just two decent seasons. But his production has been way off from his career averages the last three seasons, and now he seems to have a bad back on top of it all. If a team does sign him, he’ll have to play cheap.
If his career is over, does he go into the Hall of Fame? His baseball reference web page shows 2 of the 4 HOF indicators having him elected. It also shows him most comparable to Craig Biggio and Lou Whitaker, very good players who arent’ going to make the Hall.
The other question worth asking; is he the greatest player from Puerto Rico? He compares very favorable to Clemente; Roberto C. had 377 win shares in 18 seasons; Robbie A. had 375 in 17 seasons, about 1 more win share per season. It’s hard to believe that Alomar could replace Clemente in the Island’s heart, due to Clemente’s heroic and tragic death. But he may very well be the best player the island has produced.
If anyone has more information on Alomar’s back, please let me know.
Update: Fixed broken link.

December 27, 2004

Darwin Diaries

Baseball Evolution is a new group website on the grand old game. Check out their article on overpaying pitchers. Keith Glab posits two theories on why pitchers seem to be getting so much money this year. Let me posit a third. Pitching is catching up to hitting. There are a numerous reasons for the surge in offense since 1993. But one of them could be economic. It always seemed to me that you could make a lot more money in this game as an okay hitter than as an okay pitcher. So, if you’re 18, the best athlete on your high school team (the best hitter and the best pitcher), which way are you going to go? To make the most money, I’d go as a hitter. So let’s say for a while, hitters were overpaid. How do you bring the game back into balance? You give the young athletes a reason to take the pitching track. You end up overpaying the pitchers.
This really should happen naturally. When everyone is a good hitter, the supply is plentiful so the price should drop. The value of a good pitcher in this environment should go way up. I never quite understood why we didn’t see contracts on the order of Manny and A-Rod for pitchers. Randy Johnson has been making $13 million to $16 million over the past four seasons compared to Manny Ramirez making $13 to $22 million over the last four. Except for 2003, when Johnson was injured, their season have been comparable in win shares (Johnson did better in 2001 and 2002, Manny better in 2004). Why the big difference is salary? I’m sure part of it is the injury factor, but plenty of hitters fall by the wayside that way also (look at Giambi).
Good pitching is still scarce. That scarcity should be driving up the salaries for those who can throw. We shouldn’t be that surprised that some are getting overpaid.

December 26, 2004 December 26, 2004

Puerto Rican Decline

The Washington Times looks at the declining interest in baseball in Puerto Rico. Some blame the Expos.

Puerto Rico has long been known as a baseball-mad country with an enduring legacy that runs from Orlando Cepeda and Clemente ? an icon on the island ? through Roberto Alomar and Bernie Williams and on to Carlos Beltran and Nationals second baseman Jose Vidro. That legacy, however, has languished in recent years, with other sports growing in popularity and the overall level of baseball declining.
Bringing the Expos to San Juan seemed the perfect remedy for that lagging interest, as well as an opportunity for Major League Baseball to showcase its Latin fan base. But rather than resuscitating the sport there, the Expos left a baseball vacuum in their wake.
“It has had a devastating effect,” Puerto Rican Winter League president Joaquin Monserrate said of the Expos’ two-year stay. “Major League Baseball deflated this market without any kind of warning or cooperation with the Winter League.”

Others blame the winter league itself.

Edwin Rodriguez, however, places the blame at the feet of Winter League officials. Rodriguez, a former Carolina general manager, runs www.hitboricua.com, the league’s unofficial Web site. He said the problem is not with the Expos’ departure but with a league that operates only five months a year and has not done enough to showcase players.
“Saying the Expos are the reason for the poor attendance ? that’s not true,” Rodriguez said. “People who say that are looking for an excuse.”
For years, any notion baseball could lose its foothold on the island was unthinkable. Puerto Rico dominated the Caribbean World Series ? played among the top teams from Puerto Rico, Mexico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic ? in the 1950s, won four titles in the 1970s and took three of four from 1992 through 1995. The World Series was not played in the 1960s.
That background led many to believe that, although the Winter League had been in decline since the mid-1990s, Puerto Ricans would rally behind the Expos and draw baseball back into the national consciousness.
It hasn’t happened.

Others go on to blame a growing interest in basketball, the ability to watch big league teams on cable TV and a growing list of activities for youngsters for the decline. All are probably right in one way or another. It’s a problem the US minor leagues have had for years. How do you draw fans to an inferior product when the superior one is so easily available?

December 24, 2004

Merry Christmas!

From my family to yours, have a very merry Christmas!
Christmas card
(Click picture for a larger image.) Jason Varitek is Melinda’s favorite player. She’s very happy he’s staying with the Red Sox. Phoebe the schnoodle doesn’t have a favorite player, but loves chasing whiffle balls in the back yard. Thanks to my lovely wife Marilyn for the photography! The three of them always make my Christmas a happy one.

December 24, 2004

Captain for Christmas

Jason Varitek got a very nice Christmas present from the Boston Red Sox. Not only was he given a $40 million, 4 year contract, but he was also made captain of the team.

The Red Sox named Varitek their third captain since 1923 today after giving their longtime catcher a four-year deal. Varitek didn’t know of the honor until he was presented with home and road jerseys bearing a red “C” on Friday to formalize the leadership role he has grown into since joining the team in 1997.
“It’s not every day you’re lucky enough to sign a player who embodies everything you want your franchise to be,” general manager Theo Epstein said. “When you have that player, you don’t let him get away.”

I suppose we’ll be hearing “Make it so” a lot from Jason over the next four seasons. 🙂
The Sox and Varitek were two years and $15 million apart on the contract, but the sides came up with a creative no-trade clause that was able to close the distance. Each side gave the other a year, and Varitek brought the price down in exchange for a no-trade clause after he reaches 8 ML seasons with the Red Sox. Of course, no one else was bidding on Varitek, so that gave the Red Sox some leverage. Still I found this interesting:

Varitek, who turns 33 April 11, will be 38 by the end of his new deal. Historically, catchers have declined in offensive production in their 30s, but Boras generated a detailed analysis that argued persuasively that Varitek’s career path mirrors that of the exceptions, like Fisk, who at age 37 in 1985 posted career bests of 37 home runs and 107 RBIs for the White Sox.

I wonder who the other exceptions were? One big difference between Fisk and Varitek is that Fisk reached the majors at a much younger age. Varitek got his first cup of coffee at age 25; Fisk was having his 2nd very productive season at that point. Great youngsters tend to have better careers than players who make it in their mid-20’s. One thing they have in common (and what the other exceptions may have in common) is two seasons in their 20’s with low games played. It could be that lack of wear and tear early on pays off in the long run. We’ll keep our eyes on Varitek over the life to the contract to see if the projection holds up.

December 24, 2004

Oates Passes

Johnny Oates succumbed to brain cancer today at the age of 58. It must be a very sad holiday in the Oates family. My sympathies go out to his family and friends.
Ken Rosenthal remember Oates this way:

Johnny Oates was only supposed to live one year after being diagnosed with a brain tumor.
He lived three.
Oates’ brave fight was a testament to the power of his faith. Rangers manager Buck Showalter has called Oates the most ethical and moral man he has ever met. I would echo that sentiment, and so would virtually everyone else who knew him.

December 23, 2004

In the Cards

One of my commentors had David Eckstein fitting in with the Cardinals, and he was right. The little engine who could signed a three year deal with St. Louis for a couple of million more than OC is getting in the OC. The ESPN article has David playing shortstop; I tend to think he would be better playing 2nd base because his arm is simply not that strong. But his real value will be as a table setter for the Cardinals power lineup. However, he’s had two years in a row of sub-par performance at getting on base. At age 30, I don’t believe his best years are ahead of him. The Cardinals haven’t spent much money, but they may not be getting much of a table setter either.

December 23, 2004

Rays Rant

A Devil Rays fan writes:

I just read on ESPN.com that the D-Rays are considering signing free agent SS Alex Gonzalez. TO PLAY 3B! Am I missing something. His OBP/SLG are .302 and .392 respectively for his career. And he’ll be 32 in April. Could you please comment on this and also why the D-Rays will never be good under the current regime?

I didn’t see the ESPN article, but here’s one from the St. Petersburg Times talking mainly about the Josh Phelps signing.

Phelps is one of several free agents the Rays plan to add. Current talks seem to be focusing on veteran infielder Alex Gonzalez, whom they would use at third base, and outfielder Danny Bautista.
Gonzalez, 31, averaged 18 homers and 66 RBIs from 2000-03 as the starting shortstop for the Jays and Cubs before missing half of last season with injury, bouncing from the Cubs to the Expos and Padres. Bautista, 32, hit .286 with 11 homers and 65 RBIs as Arizona’s starting rightfielder.
Other possibilities include infielders Tony Batista, Mark Grudzielanek and David Eckstein, and outfielders Juan Gonzalez, Dustan Mohr and Ruben Sierra.

In other words, nobody really good. The problem is that the Devil Rays are going after washed up veterans or players like Mohr and Phelps who have a mixed track record. They also appear to never have heard of OBA.
I hold out some hope for Phelps; he’s still young and he’ll help the team if he can get his OBA back in the .350-.360 range. For the price they’re paying, he has a huge upside. But they should be trying that at all their holes; sign young players for under a million and see if they perform. I’d rather see that than Juan Gonzalez playing out the string at DH for messing up in right field.

December 23, 2004 December 23, 2004

Geriatric Giants

It looks like Moises Alou will be reuntied with his dad as there are reports the younger Alou will sign with the Giants. Younger is a relative term, as it appears the Giants will be chasing fly balls with these:
Electric cart
Bonds’ seasonal age will be 40 for 2005, Grissom 38 and Alou 38. I’m sorry, that’s an old outfield. Slow grounders in the gap are going for doubles next year. 🙂 On top of that, the Giants signed Vizquel (38 in 2005) and Mike Matheny (34 in 2005). The youngest projected position player is Alfonzo at 31! The Giants are really testing the theory that veterans play better than youngsters. 🙂 There’s a real possibility that a number of these players hit the wall at the same time and this ends up the worst team in the NL West.
As for Alou, I wouldn’t expect him to help Bonds IBB total go down much. Pacific Bell Park has a huge negative impact on right-handed home runs. Over the last three seasons, right-handers have hit 218 HR in Pac Bell, but 291 in Giants road games. According to The Bill James Handbook 2005, it’s the worst park for home runs by right-handed hitters in the NL. With a right-hander on the mound, given a choice between Bonds and Alou, most managers are going to pitch to Moises. The only thing that will bring Barry’s IBB totals down is a decline in Barry’s ability to hit.

December 22, 2004

Baseball Cookies

Pati Grady, a loyal reader of this site, sends along the latest from the Cooperstown Cookie Company.

Our small firm, the Cooperstown Cookie Company makes awesome Classic Baseball Shortbread cookies in regulation baseball size with stitches (that allow you to break the cookie and share it with a friend). No one has ever done this before – we’re unique!
Our cookies are baked by hand in small quantities by nearby Pathfinder Village which is a residential community for children and adults who have Down syndrome. We share a portion of our profits with Pathfinder Village. Our shortbread is rich and buttery and is made from the finest ingredients, including 100% butter with no additives or preservatives. Please visit our website: www.CooperstownCookieCompany.com for more details.

I can’t wait to try them. Sounds like a great gift for the baseball and biscuit lover in your life. You’ll be helping a worthy cause as well.

December 22, 2004

Peter-Paul Principle?

The Book of Mike has an anonymous source (so take it for what it’s worth) that says DePodesta was responsible for the trade debacle.

Our source, a professional sports agent, spoke to The Book of Mike on the condition of anonymity, tells us that DePodesta originally leaked details of the trade to Ken Rosenthal of The Sporting News. Interestingly enough, part of DePodesta’s statements yesterday include comments about the media over-playing the likelihood of the trade. As it turns out, this was actually Paul’s own doing.

It also appears that DePodesta tried to back out of the Marlins trade for Lo Duca at the last minute.
If true, it’s possible that Paul is now serving as a living example of the Peter Principle:

The original principle states that in a hierarchically structured administration, people tend to be promoted up to their “level of incompetence”.

Paul’s forte may be crunching the numbers and devising plans. He may not be that good at executing. Beane and DePodesta may have been Torre and Zimmer; Zimmer is a lousy manager of people, but knows baseball. Torre is a poor strategist, but players will go to war for him. Together, they’re a really good manager.
Together, Beane and DePodesta were a really great GM. Paul, it looks like, doesn’t have Billy’s skills in dealing with others on these trades. He’s a smart guy, so maybe he can develop those skills. If he does fail in this job, some smart GM will be glad to have him crunching numbers for his organization.

December 22, 2004

Expanding the Market

The best thing the Diamondbacks could do for themselves right now is get another bidder interested in Randy Johnson. Of course, they need to convince Johnson to go somewhere other than the Yankees. Chris Lynch at A Large Regular has a deal that would probably work for the DBacks; Johnson to Boston for Arroyo and Millar.

The Diamondbacks would have received Green, starter Brad Penny and reliever Yhency Brazoban. The way I look at it – the Red Sox could offer Bronson Arroyo instead of Penny (that’s pretty even), a top prospect instead of Brazoban (that’s pretty even depending on the prospect) and Kevin Millar instead of Shawn Green.

In other words, the Red Sox have the type of players Arizona wants. (This of course, pre-supposes that the Red Sox would make such a deal.) If Randy wants out of Arizona so badly, why is he only interested in the Yankees? What’s wrong with Boston? For that matter, what’s wrong with any number of clubs? Imagine what an impact Johnson would have on Cleveland, for example.
Maybe it’s time for Arizona’s management to say to Randy that if he wants to leave, he’ll have to give them flexibility. Otherwise, they’ll just keep him and let him play out the contract. Arizona blinked a week ago on these discussions. I believe their best bet now is to call off all trade talks, and let Johnson or the Yankees come to them. And of course, they have to be willing to eat Johnson’s contract if nothing happens.

December 22, 2004 December 22, 2004

Join Dodgers, Drew

MLB.com is reporting that the Dodgers have reached an agreement with J.D. Drew.

Drew was the ultimate prize the Dodgers were pursuing with the money that would have been freed by the aborted trade, which would have moved Shawn Green, Brad Penny, Kazuhisa Ishii and Yhency Brazoban off the payroll.
Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta was so far along with the Drew negotiations he apparently felt the club could handle that acquisition and still fill the two remaining holes in the starting rotation.

Drew brings the ability to get on base and good power to the Dodgers. He has a career .391 OBA and a .513 slugging percentage. He’s also a good base stealer to boot, swiping at a 76.3% clip for his career. Drew’s main problem has been injuries. He’ll take the field as a 29 year-old in 2005, but he’s never played 150 games in a season. His 145 games in 2004 was a career high, and before that J.D. had never played more than 135 games.
The give the Dodgers an outfield of walk machine Jayson Werth in left, Milton “Boy, Did I Blow My Endorsement Opportunities” Bradley in cneter and J.D. Drew in right. Not bad.

December 21, 2004

No Johnson for George

The Dodgers have withdrawn from the three-way deal that would have brought Randy Johnson to the NY Yankees. It looks like Javier Vazquez was the monkey wrench in the works.

Newsday reported on its Web site Tuesday night that Javier Vazquez did not want to play for the Dodgers and refused to travel to Los Angeles for a physical. The paper, citing a source involved in the discussions, cited that as the “primary reason” for the deal’s collapse.

I don’t understand why Javier wouldn’t want to pitch in LA. It’s a great park for someone like him. I can’t believe he really wants to pitch in the Bronx again.
Maybe it’s time the Yankees and Diamondbacks stepped back and tried to simplify the deal. If it’s true that the Johnson will only allow a trade to New York, the Yankees are in the drivers seat. Why not simply say, “Here’s what we’re willing to offer for Randy. If you don’t like it, let’s forget about the deal.” It’s awfully difficult for the Diamondbacks to get much from the Yankees when there’s no one bidding against them.

December 21, 2004

Exit Eck, Hello Orlando

Paul Oberjuerge of the SB Sun doesn’t like the way David Eckstein was replaced in Anaheim.

David Eckstein, guttiest, grittiest little gamer in modern baseball history … nicest, politest guy in any major-league clubhouse … kid who helped the Angels win the 2002 World Series and the 2004 American League West title …

Dumped by the Angels.

Tossed out like a piece of rotten meat.

Kicked to the side of the road like a dead dog. And just in time for Christmas. Thanks for the memories, Eck, and the unemployment office is in Santa Ana.

And why? So the Angels could commit $32 million over four years to a guy whose career batting average is .268 to Eckstein’s .278.

Whose career on-base percentage is .316 to Eckstein’s .347.

Who in the past four seasons has hit into 65 double plays to Eckstein’s 38.

Who is older than Eckstein and who hasn’t made a single contribution to the Angels’ breakthrough success of the past three seasons.

Good luck, Orlando Cabrera. You’re going to be as popular in Anaheim as Georgia Frontiere.

Paul goes on to point out that the Angels could have kept David for a couple of million dollars. Is this a good deal? Let’s look at the win shares.

Total Win Shares for SS, 2004, Min 100 Games at SS
First Name Last Name Games at SS Total WinShares
Miguel Tejada 162 30
Derek Jeter 154 26
Cesar Izturis 159 25
Jimmy Rollins 154 25
Michael Young 158 25
Carlos Guillen 135 24
Jack Wilson 156 23
Rafael Furcal 131 21
Julio Lugo 143 21
Khalil Greene 136 20
Omar Vizquel 147 17
Edgar Renteria 149 17
Alex Gonzalez 158 15
Cristian Guzman 145 15
Jose Valentin 122 14
Kazuo Matsui 110 14
Bobby Crosby 151 13
Deivi Cruz 104 12
Craig Counsell 129 11
Royce Clayton 144 11
Orlando Cabrera 159 11
Angel Berroa 133 10
David Eckstein 139 9
Alex Cintron 133 8
Total Win Shares for SS, 2001-2004, Min 250 Games at SS
First Name Last Name Games at SS Total WinShares
Alex Rodriguez 322 97
Miguel Tejada 486 87
Derek Jeter 428 68
Edgar Renteria 454 68
Rafael Furcal 436 66
Nomar Garciaparra 389 64
Jimmy Rollins 460 60
Jose Valentin 315 48
Carlos Guillen 341 48
Jack Wilson 448 46
Orlando Cabrera 474 45
Julio Lugo 366 44
Omar Vizquel 361 43
Cristian Guzman 432 41
David Eckstein 402 40
Cesar Izturis 445 40
Alex Gonzalez 350 38
Juan Uribe 267 37
Alex Gonzalez 373 34
Rich Aurilia 333 32
Deivi Cruz 398 29
Barry Larkin 279 27
Angel Berroa 311 27
Royce Clayton 394 26
Adam Everett 261 24
Neifi Perez 260 21

Both SS were poor in 2004. Over the previous three seasons, Orlando put up five more win shares in 70 more games. Oberjuerge is right; there’s nothing you’re getting from Cabrerra that you wouldn’t get from Eckstein. And now the Angels are paying a whole lot more money for it.

This deal also makes clear why the Red Sox spent the money on Renteria. The market was such that they couldn’t sign Cabrerra cheaply; now they have someone who is better, and they have to hope 2004 was just a random bad year.

As for David Eckstein, I bet there are a few teams that could use a player with a .347 OBA. Don’t the Twins need a shortstop?