Monthly Archives: October 2006

October 31, 2006

Smuggling Cubans

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And we’re not talking about cigars:

An agent for baseball players illegally smuggled Cuban players into the United States, eventually shipping them to California in hopes that they would be signed by major league teams, federal immigration officials said Tuesday.
…
Prosecutors say Rodrigues and Dominguez traveled by boat to Cuba on July 28, 2004, and loaded 22 Cubans aboard, but were intercepted by U.S. authorities at sea. Less than a month later, on Aug. 22, 2004, authorities say the two men successfully brought 19 Cubans into the country.
According to the indictment, the defendants transported the athletes to Los Angeles by van, rented an apartment for them, provided them with food and clothing and began training them. It could not be immediately determined if any of the Cubans have been signed by major league teams.

It seems to me we should be encouraging people who want to escape from Cuba, especially if they can play at the major league level.

October 31, 2006

Si Simmons Passes

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The oldest living professional player, Si Simmons, passed away:

Si Simmons, the former Negro leagues baseball player who was believed to be the longest-living professional ballplayer in history, died Sunday in at a retirement home in St. Petersburg, Fla. He was 111.

Simmons was just discovered this summer.

The discovery of Simmons made him a minor baseball celebrity. To celebrate his 111th birthday on Oct. 14, the Center for Negro League Baseball Research organized a party at Simmons’s nursing home that attracted 300 people, including 39 former Negro leagues players.
Carl Boles, who later played the outfield on the 1962 San Francisco Giants, presented Simmons with a plaque from the Society of American Baseball Research that recognized him as the oldest living professional ballplayer ever. And the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, – whose games Simmons still occasionally attended with his church group, gave him an official jersey with No. 111 on the back.

My condolences go out to his family and friends. It’s great to see he was active and alert to the end.

October 31, 2006

Silva Renewed

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The Minnesota Twins exercised their option on Carlos Silva today, hoping 2006 was an outlier for the pitcher:

Silva had a down year, going 11-15 with a 5.94 ERA last season and taking himself out of three games. But the free agent pitching market is thin, and the Twins need starters. They couldn’t afford to go to arbitration with Silva, who had one such year left, or let him go and create a bigger hole in their rotation.
The Twins have starters Silva and Johan Santana under contract for next season. Brad Radke is expected to make his retirement official this month. That leaves Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins as candidates to fill out the remaining rotation. All four have less than three years of experience, making them under the club’s control.
The Twins will hope next season that Silva will pitch more like he did in 2005, when he was 9-8, 3.44 and walked nine batters in 188 innings.

Minnesota feels they need another veteran in the rotation. If Silva returns to form, the $4.35 million salary is a bargain. If not, it’s not that much money and Silva walks at the end of 2007. Although his walks were up in 2006, they’re still very low. It’s the home run increase that really killed Carlos, as he allowed nearly 2 per nine innings, the highest rate in the majors.

October 31, 2006 October 31, 2006

Show Stopper

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George Steinbrenner’s grand daughter gave a knock-out performance in Cabaret on Sunday.

Pauper Players’ Sunday afternoon performance of “Cabaret” was cut short when Department of Public Safety officials responded to a call that a man was suffering from chest pains, DPS spokesman Randy Young said.
Sophomore Emily Riehl, who was in the audience, said the man was New York Yankees principal owner, George Steinbrenner.
Steinbrenner, 76, was in attendance to watch his granddaughter, junior Haley Swindal, perform the lead role of Sally Bowles.
Young said the man was “conscious, alert and breathing” when DPS officials arrived at Playmakers Theatre between 3:30 and 3:41 p.m.
The incident left some audience members shaken and forced the company to cancel the performance.

Steinbrenner is reported to be fine and at home. Hat tip, Deadspin, which is interested in your taste in Broadway show tunes.

October 31, 2006

Schmidt’s Worth

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Lookout Landing makes a case for not paying Jason Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Any contract talk should operate under the assumption that, as an aging pitcher, Schmidt is unlikely to exceed his 2006 performance. Have him repeat his season in Safeco and he probably puts up an ERA around 3.80-4.00. Over 200+ innings, that guy’s worth up to $10m or so, maybe a little less (I’m feeling generous). So even allowing for total consistency over the next several years, you’re looking at an absolute max of $30m/3yr – $40m/4yr. I don’t think that’s going to get it done (although the latter has an outside shot).
But what are the odds that Schmidt staves off further decline for the life of his contract? Although his PECOTA page hasn’t been updated for 2006, his list of Baseball-Reference comps is terrifying (this isn’t authoritative by any means, but still). He turns 34 next January, his strikeout rate has dropped 24% in two years, and as a power pitcher with a history of high workloads he carries an elevated risk of injuries causing him to miss time or pitch worse. Plus, his walk rate’s already teetering on the edge of acceptability, and any drop in command could make all kinds of bad things happen. Suddenly you’re looking at something like (say) $25m/3yr – $32m/4yr, and that’s definitely not going to cut it.
I don’t want to get carried away and proclaim that the end is nigh for Jason Schmidt’s career, because I don’t think it is. Even in what looks like the early stages of an age-related decline, he still has a lot to give before he loses his usefulness, and after starting 32 games in 2006 it seems silly to call his durability into question. But at the same time, he and his agent are going to be asking the market for a #1-type contract, and the smart money’s on Schmidt not holding up his end of the bargain.

The only problem with this analysis is that we don’t know what the market will bear. I suspect Jason is better than most pitchers who are available via free agency this off season, and that alone will drive his price up. At any price, Schmidt is not going to turn the Mariners into champions. There are tons of holes offensively with only the leadoff hitter posting a decent OBA and the heart of the order supplying minimum power. Johan Santana would have a tough time winning with that offense. Spending a lot on a simply good pitcher isn’t the best place to put the Mariners money.

October 30, 2006 October 30, 2006

One Year at a Time

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The Red Sox exercised the option on Tim Wakefield’s contract:

Early in the 2005 season, Wakefield agreed to a $4 million, one-year contract extension through 2006 that gave the Red Sox the ability to keep their longest-tenured player for the rest of his career. The team can keep renewing his contract annually at the same salary.
“I want to pitch as long as my body will let me,” he said.

If he’s anything like Phil Neikro, Wakefield has a lot of renewals in front of him.

October 30, 2006

Reynolds vs. ESPN

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Harold Reynolds is going after ESPN:

“I have tried everything possible to handle this situation quietly behind closed doors. After numerous conversations and multiple mediation discussions with ESPN executives, it is clear that ESPN had no intention of solving this problem amicably,” Reynolds said in a statement.
“For 11 years, I served ESPN with enthusiasm and dedication. It is unfortunate that ESPN has handled this process in an unprofessional manner. At the end of the day, my integrity, reputation and family are my top priorities, and for those reasons I need to set the record straight and clear my name.”
ESPN spokesman Josh Krulewitz said Monday that the network had been made aware that Reynolds either has filed a lawsuit or plans to in coming days.

Good luck to Harold. I remember from STATS, Inc’s negotiations with ESPN that their lawyers were sharks I hope Reynolds is ready for a very nasty fight.

October 30, 2006 October 30, 2006

Getting Some Exercise

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The Chicago White Sox exercised their options on three players today:

Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye and Tadahito Iguchi all were instrumental in helping the Chicago White Sox win the World Series in 2005. Nearly 12 months later, the White Sox decided to retain their services.

It’s clear to see why. With Buehrle making $9.5 million, Dye $6.75 million and Iguchi $3.25 million, all of them are a steal. Dye’s especially interesting. He’ll be 33 in 2007, and the White Sox essentially get him for a second walk year. That will give him plenty of incentive to perform well again. At the same time, Chicago avoids a longer term commitment at an age where a decline in production is more likely than not.
Given the price #2 starters commanded in recent years, Buehrle is probably worth $15 million on the open market. And Iguchi’s good OBA with some pop at second base would likely put him close to seven figures on the open market. The White Sox are getting a lot of value for not a lot of money.

October 30, 2006 October 30, 2006

Collusion or No Collusion?

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Maury Brown now believes the collusion agreement in the CBA is not a big deal:

Fast-forward to the new CBA. What appears to have been negotiated is a number of these outstanding grievances that have been sitting in limbo waiting to be addressed. In the case of the grievances regarding collusion, it appears what has happened is a case where management said, “Look, we don’t want to have this issue from 2002 clouding the new agreement. Agree to settle these outstanding grievances involving claims of collusion, so that we can place wording in the new agreement that says this matter from 2002 can no longer be grieved. Let’s not sour this new deal with these matters from the past.”
So, apparently, the sides agreed on the matter. The paltry dollar figure associated to the settlement underscores that this was more of a book-clearing incident, than the type of colluding we saw during the ’90s.

The 1980’s actually. During that era, teams refused to offer players contracts. So players like Tim Raines, one of the great leadoff men, missed their big payday. The more recent alleged collusion is more of a price fixing scheme:

Bill Madden has confirmed that offers “were actually being determined for the clubs by MLB’s central office.”

But we knew about this. The league was advising teams on the value of free agents, since, I guess, some GMs are mathematically challenged. Collusion would occur if teams refused to bid over that level. I’m not sure that happened, but the settlement made the question moot. This is similar to a defendant paying off a plaintiff to make a case go away, because it’s cheaper than actually defending your innocence. In any case, any collusion that occured recently was on a much smaller scale than what happened in the late 1980s.

October 30, 2006

Blue Jays Ways

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Allan Ryan takes a comprehensive look at the needs of the Blue Jays in the off season. Here’s one:

A 3-4-5 type of starter, maybe two, if they can’t re-sign free agent Ted Lilly; a No. 4-5 type if they do.

In general, I don’t want a rotation that actually has a 3-4-5 starter. I’d much rather own a rotation that consists of three or four #2 starters. Now, if all you can afford is a pitcher with a 4.20 ERA, I understand the targeting. But you really should be looking for a number 2 starter who for whatever reason looks to everyone else like a number three starter (bad defense behind him led to a high ERA, for example). Then you get a deal.

October 30, 2006

Burrell for Soriano?

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Marcus Hayes writes on how the Phillies might eat some of Pat Burrell’s salary to bring Alfonso Soriano on board. It’s an interesting switch; Soriano is a year older. Burrell’s career OBA is about 30 points higher than Soriano’s, but Alfonso beats him in slugging percentage by 30 points. Soriano brings speed and an excellent base stealing resume with him. Alfonso is going to go for about $15 million a year, whereas Burrell with get $13.5 million a year over the next two seasons. Do Phillies fans feel the extra money is worth it, especailly if the team ends up paying part of Burrell’s salary?
There’s also the possibility that the Phillies keep Burrell and put Soriano in right. I like that a lot better.

October 30, 2006 October 29, 2006

Confident Tigers

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Some members of the Detroit Tigers are talking about a dynasty:

“Hopefully, we look back in just a few years and see that this was a building block for our organization,” 23-year-old pitcher Justin Verlander said, in the aftermath of the Tigers’ 4-2 Game 5 World Series loss to St. Louis. “Maybe it becomes a dynasty. Who knows?”
A dynasty?
“Could be,” Verlander said. “Absolutely. Definitely.”
A dynasty?
“Absolutely,” 21-year-old pitcher Joel Zumaya said. “We’ve got plenty of good years ahead. Like (manager Jim) Leyland said — and like I’ll say — this is just the beginning. There are good years to come.”
A dynasty?
“Please understand that (Verlander) is 23,” 41-year-old pitcher Kenny Rogers said. “You don’t use words like that except in the past tense. But this team will be formidable for I don’t know how many years to come. I think the young guys know they’ll get another chance.”

The pitching is certainly young and good. But the best offensive players are over 30, and only Granderson is truly young. The good news is that if the pitching remains as good as it was in 2006, you don’t need much of an offense to win. Simply putting a slugger at first base improves the Tigers run scoring. I can see them getting back next season, although they have plenty of competition from Minnesota and Chicago.

October 29, 2006 October 29, 2006

Mariners Bind

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John Hickey writes on the Mariners needs and shows the problem with signing too many free agents:

Seattle has had three consecutive last-place finishes, and if things are going to change, general manager Bill Bavasi and his crew see the need for an influx of starting pitching. Whether by trade, by free agent signings or by posting (in the case of Japanese star Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Mariners need to add a minimum of two, and maybe three, starting pitchers.

The reason they need to go that route?

Don’t look for the Mariners (or many other teams) to move quickly in free agency. If a club waits until the first week of December, after clubs have offered their own free agents salary arbitration, the signing club can get the player without giving up a draft pick.
With the Mariners having had paltry drafts since the 2000 season in part because of numerous free-agent signings, Seattle management is particularly cognizant of the importance of not losing high picks in the June draft of high school and college players.

It’s a vicious cycle. Teams sign top free agents, lose draft picks, and when those free agents age or don’t work out, there’s no one in the minors to trade or promote. So the team ends up signing more free agents, and fall further behind in the minors. Sometimes a team needs to step back and take a few losing seasons to rebuild the minors.

October 29, 2006

Hope for Ohio

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The Beane Count for 2006 gives some hope to fans of the Indians and the Reds, as both Ohio teams finished first in their leagues in the Rob Neyer stat that uses home runs and walks collected and allowed. No team dominated every category this season, but the Indians were good in all of them. The Indians main problem this year was defense. They put up the second lowest DER of any AL team. Combined with the second lowest K per 9 in the AL, also those extra balls in play turned into hits. Some combination of better defense and more strikeouts to take pressure off the fielders should help the team in 2007.
The Reds dominated three of the four Beane Count categories, finishing 2nd in offensive home runs and walks, and first in walks allowed. But they were dead last in the NL in home runs allowed. The Reds offense is fine, their pitchers keep batters off base. They just need to reduce their fly ball percentage, which was 39% in 2006, not the highest in the league but close. Given their home park, it’s dangerous to be high in that stat.

October 29, 2006

Saving Outs

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It’s nice to see Bruce Bochy has a little Earl Weaver in him:

While not considered a “Moneyball” manager — he was accused of relying too heavily on veterans in San Diego — Bochy subscribes to some of its stat-based tenets. Over the past five seasons, the Padres had the fewest sacrifice hits of any National League club.
“I don’t like to give away outs,” he said.

That’s good news for the Giants. San Francisco was fourth in the NL in sacrifices last year, the Padres 14th. Of the four teams that made the playoffs in 2006 from the NL, the Mets with 77 sac bunts ranked sixth in the NL. Giving away outs in 2006 wasn’t a great way to win.

October 29, 2006

I Must Have ESPN

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This is just too weird. For some reason, I was thinking about how I don’t watch the NBA anymore, and really haven’t followed it since the Larry Bird/Magic Johnson era. I was wondering what’s going on with Red Auerbach, and I couldn’t remember if he was still alive.
So today, I open up the ESPN home page, and there’s the story that Red died yesterday.
I have a Red Auerbach story. I was traveling from Boston to New York on the Eastern shuttle in the late 1980’s. As I boarded the plane, I noticed Red was waiting to board, smoking a cigar. At that time, smoking was banned on short flights. Red was waiting for the last minute to get on the plane so he could finish his cigar. As he walked off the plane in New York, he held a cigar in his mouth, and the second it was legal he lit the stogie.
During the 1970s, CBS gave a Red a half time feature, Red on Roundball. He would use current and former NBA players to teach to basics of basketball. It was a great series, fun to watch and educational at the same time.
Red led a long and successful life. He’s commemorated in championship banners and a Boston statue (anyone can sit on a bench with Red). We all should be so accomplished.
My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

October 28, 2006

Joe Niekro Passes

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Joe Niekro died on Friday:

Niekro died Friday in Florida from a brain aneurysm at age 61.
Astros president Tal Smith, the general manager for part of Niekro’s stint in Houston, saw Niekro last season and said he still had the sense of humor Smith remembered when Niekro was an Astro.
“You always knew Joe was around,” Smith said. “He would always make his presence known by agitating somebody. But he was a fun-loving guy and always the center of activity.”

Joe was known for his sense of humor:

Ashby said Niekro also would send sports writers scrambling by starting a false rumor within earshot.
“He’d be walking along and he would suddenly say, ‘Hey, what do you think of so-and-so getting traded?’ just to see if he could bait the writers into writing a story,” Ashby said. “He always had something witty like that going on.”

Niekro had his own scandal as well:

In 1985, the Astros traded the 40-year-old Niekro to the New York Yankees. He finished his career in Minnesota, where he pitched in the World Series for the only time, in 1987.
Earlier that season, Niekro was suspended for 10 games when umpires discovered a nail file in his pocket. Niekro said he was filing his nails in the dugout, but baseball officials didn’t believe him.

It’s a classic highlight, as he tries to toss the file away without the umpires seeing it.
Joe and his brother Phil combined to win 539 games in the majors. Joe’s son Lance is currently playing for the Giants, making them one of the many successful multi-generational families. My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

October 28, 2006

Taking Turns

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Devon Young points out that the last six World Series champions came from each of the six divisions:

  1. NL West (D’backs)
  2. AL West (Angels)
  3. NL East (Marlins)
  4. AL East (Red Sox)
  5. AL Central (White Sox)
  6. NL Central (Cardinals)
October 28, 2006

Boring Post Season

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This certainly wasn’t the most inspiring of post seasons. Only one series was truly competitive. Only the Mets and Padres won a game facing elimination. Of a possible 41 games, 30 were played. There was a distinct lack of drama.
There were no huge managerial goofs. The biggest one I thought was not starting Bonderman in game 1 of the World Series, but it’s not clear it would have made a difference. No one obviously left a starter in too long or used the bullpen ineffectively.
Jeff Weaver and Kenny Rogers were good redemption stories, at least Rogers was until he was suspected of cheating. Weaver very likely saved his career, adding to Dave Duncan’s legend.
And it’s good to see Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen win a series. Edmonds is running out of time in his career, and the injuries he sustained this season make me wonder how long he’ll go on. Rolen is one of the great third basemen, and I’d hate to see Pujols go through his career like Barry Bonds or Ted Williams, a great hitter who never won a championship.
But given the dramatic series and great stories from 2001 on, this post season paled in comparison. And that’s all right. Sometimes, you need a boring year to remind you of the greatness of years like 1986.

October 28, 2006

Everyone In

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I’ve been wondering if the new CBA eliminated deadlines for a team to sign one of its players who file for free agency. The answer is yes:

Under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement, a five-year deal reached Tuesday night, there is less of a time constraint on the Giants and Bonds to get something done on a new contract.
The previous labor agreement mandated that if the Giants had not offered Bonds arbitration by Dec. 7, they would be unable to sign him until May 1. Now, the club can still negotiate with the 42-year-old Bonds even if it doesn’t offer him arbitration by the new Dec. 1 deadline.

The bigger story here is what will happen to Barry Bonds? Will a team take a chance on him? Has an edict come down from on high that no one touches him? Does he try to go to somewhere with good home run characteristics that make his quest for Aaron’s record more easily obtainable? The bidding should start soon.

October 27, 2006

Cardinals World Champions

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The St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series on the strength of their pitching. They end the series allowing just 10 earned runs in five games, an ERA of 2.05. They struck out 37 Tigers while walking just 8 in 44 innings. The Tigers managed to hit just .199 against the Cardinals. This staff handled the Mets, and handled a very similar offense presented by the Tigers.
The Tigers didn’t do badly pitching, either. They posted an ERA of 3.00, but allowed eight unearned runs. With the offense not hitting, it didn’t really matter. The big difference between the two teams was the walks. The Tigers gave up 23 free passes. St. Louis only hit .228, but with all the walks they put up a much higher OBA.
Congratulations to Jeff Weaver, who amazed me this October. I thought he’d be out of baseball, but he turned around his season and career with five fine outings, culminating with tonight’s championship win.
David Eckstein wins the series MVP. Hooray! David and I share the same first name and the same height, so he’s been one of my favorites for years. It’s his second championship, winning previously with the Angels in 2002.
Tony La Russa becomes the second manager to win the World Series in both leagues, joining Sparky Anderson in that club.
Congratulations once again to the Cardinals. The almost didn’t win the NL Central, but since that last weekend of the season, they’ve been nearly unbeatable.
Congratulations to the Tigers as well. No one expected this team to perform as well as it did. The took out the Yankees and the Athletics, mowing through two of the better teams in the league. A few better throws, and a few more selective plate appearances and they might still be playing. They have a good, young pitching staff, and I expect them to challenge for the division for a while.

October 27, 2006

Top of the Ninth

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Zumaya retires the Cardinals in order in the eighth. The Tigers are down to their last three outs, and need two runs to keep the game and their season going.
Update: Wainwright starts the ninth with two balls to Ordonez.
Update: Ordonez hits a 3-2 pitch off the glove of Wainwright, but Belliard is able to charge and throw out the slow batter. Two outs to go.
Update: Wainwright gets ahead of Casey 0-2, but Casey works the count full. Casey then lines a double off the wall in right center to bring the tying run to the plate, and keep Detroit out of the double play. Ivan Rodriguez will bat with Santiago pinch running at second.
Update: Ivan checks his swing and grounds back softly to the pitcher. That brings up Polanco, and if anyone is due, Polanco is the man.
Update: A wild pitch makes the count 3-2 on Polanco and puts Santiago at third.
Update: Polanco walks on a low outside pitch, and Inge comes to the plate. A long hit can tie the game.
Update: Inge falls behind 0-2, then swings and misses at Wainwright’s final offering to end the game. St. Louis wins 4-2 and are the 2006 World Series Champions! Congratulations to the Cardinals on an improbable post season!

October 27, 2006

Dusty La Russa

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Tony La Russa sends Weaver out for the 8th inning, but the broadcast notes that no one was warming up in the St. Louis bullpen. That’s how Dusty got in trouble in game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. After an out, Flores starts warming.
Update: Weaver still going strong, strikes out Monroe.
Update: Jeff strikes out Guillen for the third out in the 8th. That’s nine strikeouts for Weaver through eight innings.

October 27, 2006

Verlander Done

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Rodney starts the seventh for the Tigers. Verlander throws just 58 of 101 pitches for strikes, but only allowed one earned run.
The Tigers make another mistake as Eckstein reaches on an infield hit as Guillen double clutches on a grounder. I don’t know why Guillen wasn’t charged with an error.
Update: Rodney walks Wilson to bring Pujols to the plate with two on and none out.
Update: Pujols pops to Polanco for the first out.
Update: Edmonds flies out to shallow right. He needs one more out to get out of the inning.
Update: Rolen just misses a double down the line as the ball lands foul, but he then goes the other way and drops a single in front of Ordonez. Eckstein scores and the Cardinals put an insurance run on the board. It’s 4-2 St. Louis.
Update: Belliard taps out in front of the plate. The Tigers have two inning to get two runs, or else it’s home for the winter.