The 2007 season hit the four week mark yesterday. So far, the big news remains the reduction in home runs. Versus the same point last season, runs are down 0.77 per game. Home runs are down 0.46 per game. At 1.6 runs per home run this season, the runs lost due to fewer home runs is 0.745 per game, or 97% of the difference.
On the team front, two teams show signs of pulling away from their divisions. The Red Sox own the best record in the majors. They just finished taking five out of six from the Yankees, dropping New York into last place in the AL East. That might be the biggest surprise of the month. Boston presents a balanced attack. They score over five runs a game while allowing three and a half. Julien Tavarez stands out as the only bad pitcher on the staff, and the completion of Jon Lester’s rehab likely fixes that problem. Okajima and Papelbon emerged as the best setup/closer in the game. The combination allowed one run so far, striking out 32 and walking 8 in 22 innings of work.
Milwaukee turned out to be a consensus pick for first place in the NL Central, and right now they hold the biggest lead of any senior circuit team. Unlike the Red Sox, however, the Brewers record stands on a bit of luck. Opponents outscored Milwaukee 113-110 so far, meaning they should be much closer to .500. They’re 8-3 in one and two games, however. The history of the Brewers show that they play well through the middle of May, then fall off. So far, they’re on track for that type of season.
Apart from the Yankees, the surprises at the bottom come from the NL Central, where Chicago, St. Louis and Houston bring up the rear. While neither the Astros nor the Cardinals are playing well, the Cubs outscored their opponents by twenty two runs! It’s their 0-5 record in one run games that puts them 1/2 game above last in the division. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez carry the load offensively. But the big signing, Alfonso Soriano, hit poorly in April. If he did a better job setting up Lee and Ramirez, the Cubs might not play any close games.
And then there are the last place Yankees. They’ve also outscored their opponents, but are just 1-5 in one-run games. While the problems are properly put at the feet of the pitching, this isn’t a typical Yankees offense, either. While they get on base and slug with the best in the league, their batting average is a bit low for them at .268 (although this ranks fourth in the AL). This means for pitching staff that don’t walk many batters, they have a much better chance of keep the Yankees offense down. The bullpen started the year strong, but of the eight AL pitchers with 14 or 15 appearances this season four are Yankees. Until the Yankees starters are able to go deep in games, Torre needs to start using his relievers longer in games to save some of these appearances.
Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are both scoring more runs than games played, and Alex is also driving in more than played. No one score and drove in more runs and RBI than games played (100 games) since Ruth and Gehrig both accomplished the feat in 1931, although in 1937 Joe DiMaggio scored 151 runs in 151 games while driving in 167.
