My latest column at SportingNews.com looks at the chance of the Giants competing for the division title due to the efforts of their starting pitchers.
Giant Pitchers
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Monthly Archives: December 2008
What About the Twins?
La Velle Neal can’t believe the Twins couldn’t come up with a better package for Mark DeRosa than the Cubs.
Replacing K-Rod
Brian Fuentes
Photo: Icon SMI
The Angels sign Brian Fuentes to a two-year deal. He’ll take over the closer role vacated by Francisco Rodriguez.
Since the start of the 2005 season, when Fuentes became a closer, K-Rod leads the majors in saves. Fuentes ranks 14th, but his strikeout rate and home run rate compare well with Rodriguez, while Fuentes walks fewer batters. Given the Angels ability to win over the time period compared to the Rockies, I suspect Brian might set a career high for saves this season.
Mark Joins Kerry
Mark DeRosa
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The Cubs sent Mark DeRosa to the Indians today, teaming him one again with Kerry Wood:
The Cubs acquired three pitching prospects from the Indians for DeRosa — left-hander John Stevens, who was added to the 40-man roster, lefty John Gaub and right-hander Chris Archer.
The addition of three prospects could signal the rekindling of talks with San Diego for right-hander Jake Peavy, now that Colorado has agreed in principle to take starter Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino, opening up a spot in the rotation.
DeRosa is a versatile players with a an above average OBA, meaning the Indians can use him wherever they see fit. He played six different positions in each of the last two seasons.
According to Baseball Reference, John Stevens is really Jeff Stevens and a righty. He’s posted great strikeout and walk number in his career and keeps the ball in the park. Gaub is a lefty and strikes out a ton of low minor batters but shows little control. Archer is very young, but also not very impressive. Looks like a good trade, as the Cubs get a pitcher who should be useful this year, a good prospect and one that needs a good bit of polishing. The Indians get a solid offensive player who gives them a lot of flexibility in the field. A nice way for both teams to end the year.
Sick Prospect
The Astros first round pick from 2006 is fighting meningitis.
Max Sapp, the Astros’ first-round draft pick in 2006, has been hospitalized for more than two weeks in Orlando, Fla., with a case of meningitis, assistant general manager Ricky Bennett said Tuesday.
Bennett said Sapp, 20, has been breathing with the help of a respirator after undergoing surgery to repair a severe sinus infection and contracting meningitis.
Let’s hope he makes a speedy recovering. It appears his athletic conditioning helped him through the illness.
Hat tip, BBTF.
New Data
The Lahman Database update for 2008 is now available.
Seat of Power
Beyond the Boxscore looks at the best pitch locations to hit for power looking at the axis perpendicular to the direction of the ball (inside/outside). As you might imagine, players hit for more power on inside pitches than outside pitches, but balls over the heart of the plate deliver the most damage.
Estimating the Reds
Red Reporter uses the Lineup Analysis Tool to estimate the number of runs the Reds will score in 2009. The results aren’t pretty.
Lowe Balling
The Mets off Derek Lowe $12 million a year for three years. He wants $18 million a year for five years. I wonder how close they’ll end up to $15 million a year for four years?
Marquis to the Rockies
The Cubs shipped Jason Marquis to the Rockies for setup man Luis Vizcaino:
The deal, first reported by ESPN, likely won’t become official until next week. The Rockies made the math work to get a starter they have coveted for a month, while removing a setupman who asked to be dealt at season’s end after expressing unhappiness with his role.
The Rockies will ship the $4 million remaining on Vizcaino’s deal for the $9.875 million left on Marquis’ contract. The Cubs are expected to eat around a $1 million on Marquis’ contract, leaving the Rockies to pay approximately $5 million for one season of the right-hander.
Chicago, meanwhile, still nets a $5 million savings, crystallizing the motivation for both clubs.
I’m not crazy about this deal for the Rockies. Marquis’s FIP has been higher than his ERA in four of the last five years, and the big park in Colorado is tough to defend. He does induce a high number of ground balls, however, and although he hasn’t pitched much at Coors, the Rockies haven’t hit him there. We’ll see how he holds up over a full season.
Selling Weight Loss
I just saw a Nutri-System ad starring Chris Berman. It’s by far the best Nutri-System ad ever.
Update: Here it is:
New Values
Value Wins appear to be the new rage around the baseball blogosphere. Right now, they are just for batters, but it looks like the Yankees got a good deal on Teixeira, the Red Sox got an even better deal on Pedroia, and A-Rod earned his salary in 2008.
Shifting Power
Buster Olney wonders if the power struggle between MLB and the MLBPA is shifting in favor of the owners.
Wealth might have eroded the determination to enforce Miller’s core principles, however. The sport is generating billions; the players are making millions. The respectful and cooperative relationship that has developed between Michael Weiner, players’ counsel, and Rob Manfred, baseball’s labor guru, is often cited by peers as being as asset.
But soon enough, we will know whether the owners will look to take back some of the financial landscape ceded in past battles.
I don’t think so. My favorite book from college is The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
Feared
Wezen-Ball looks at news reports of the day to see just how much Jim Rice was feared:
However, as great as Rice was for his relatively short career, the argument his supporters make today – that he was the “most feared hitter” of his time – is hard to substantiate when you look at the press clippings from the day. There were plenty of accolades written about him during those years, and there was a short time-frame where people did call him the “most feared hitter,” but it did not persist throughout his career. As questionable as the argument may be, there is some truth in it, but not nearly enough to make it such a cornerstone of Rice’s candidacy.
The whole post is well worth your time.
Hat tip, The Book Blog.
Thinking About Collusion
SportsAgentBlog notes that there are a few possible collusion cases available to the MLBPA, but no grievances have been filed:
Why is the MLBPA not taking action against the MLB based on these potential claims? Is there not enough evidence? Has the association felt that labor peace is more important than filing a grievance on behalf of a few players who may not have strong cases? Do you see a possible grievance being filed any time in the near future?
One reason might be to keep dirt under the rug. I assume if the MLBPA files a grievance, there comes a period of discovery on both sides. In regards to the 2002-2003 case and the Bonds case, I would bet there would be a lot of questions directed at players about steroids during depositions. Maybe MLB doesn’t want that to come out.
The other (and probably more relevant motive) is that the players don’t have a good case. 2002-2003 was a down time, with the economy taking a big hit after 9/11. Also, like this year, there were a large number of good free agents seeking jobs, which tends to hold the price down. Even Bonds, who has the best case of anyone, is going to have a tough time proving he was blacklisted. With an indictment hanging over his head, any single GM could decide on his own Bonds wasn’t worth the negative publicity.
Leaning to the Left
Sox Machine notes A.J. Pierzynski’s better hitting against lefties the last two years, and wonders if that would allow the White Sox to carry another left-handed hitting catcher.
More Dodger Interest
It seems the Dodgers are also interested in Bobby Abreu, which makes perfect sense. Torre knows Bobby from his last year in New York, and Bobby’s a better defensive outfielder than Dunn. I disagree, however, with this on Manny Ramirez:
Having already turned down $45M over two years and the $25M he likely would have received in arbitration, Manny’s painted himself into a corner and has two options: go crawling back to Coletti, or retire. I’m very interested in seeing how this one plays out.
I don’t think Manny will go the way of Barry Bonds. I still believe he can help the Marlins, and possibly the Rays as well. With his home in Florida and his price dropping, don’t be surprised to see him in the uniform of one of the Florida teams.
I also would not rule out the Cardinals. Yes, they have other options in the outfield, but imagine Manny and Pujols back-to-back. That would be a lot of offense in the middle of that lineup.
I’d just love to see the Twins dump a short term ton of money on Manny as well. They didn’t play Santana his $20 million a year, and since they were willing to go that high on Santana, they likely have the money. Why not spend it on Manny and add one more bat to the Mauer/Morneau combination?
Cubans on the Way
Yadel Marti pitches in the 2006 WCB
Photo: Icon SMI
Two Cuban players defected, and should generate much interest in the major leagues:
Right-hander Yadel Marti, Cuba’s best pitcher in the first World Baseball Classic in 2006, and outfielder Yasser Gomez left the island and are in an unknown location before attempting to reach the Dominican Republic to seek an MLB career, sources told ESPNdeportes.com.
Players’ relatives and friends in Cuba confirmed their departure, without disclosing details of the planned route.
Gomez was left off both the 2006 WBC team and the 2008 Olympic team, leading me to believe the Cubans thought he was a flight risk. We’ll see where they land and how much they can help a major league team.
Manny Dunn?
Jayson Stark reports the Dodgers are now looking at Adam Dunn instead of Manny Ramirez. One of the nice things for teams who need a corner outfielder is that they have three good ones available in Dunn, Burrell and Ramirez. If one is asking too much money or too many years, just go sign another. That should keep the price down on all three.
More Defense
Coast to Coast Deal
Bleeding Blue and Teal analyzes a potential Hideki Matsui for Erik Bedard trade.
Another Bad Pitcher
The Orioles are on the verge of signing Mark Hendrickson. I hope they are paying him very little money. Mark is a low strikeout pitcher who is easy to hit. He doesn’t give up many walks because batters don’t need to wait around for a pitch to smack. As you can see at the link above, he’s especially bad with runners in scoring position. If an unclutch pitcher exists, Mark Hendrickson is it.
Mark Hendrickson pitching opening day 2008 for the Florida Marlins.
Photo: Icon SMI
The Orioles got rid of Daniel Cabrera, with a career 5.05 ERA, and move in Hendrickson with a 5.07 ERA. Why? The point is to improve. Derek Lowe is sitting out there cheap, and would improve the Orioles rotation. This move is just Baltimore spinning their wheels.
A bit of trivia, Hendrickson Ken Griffey’s 600th home run.
Video Vault
MLB is opening up its video vault for the premier of MLB TV. The new channel is supposed to be on DirecTV 213, but is not up yet. Some cable subscribers, however, are seeing some things on their MLB channel, however. The 2-teens on DTV now have channels for the NFL, NHL and tennis.
Measuring Drama
Studes looks at the drama of games to show why we believe late season games are more important than early season games. His Washington Nationals graph shows great evidence why no one was watching in 2008.
Return of the Bard
The Red Sox made an offer to Josh Bard.
His physical will seal the deal at last.
His catching tasks will not be made too hard,
Since Wakefield’s balls too often ended passed.
Losing to Win
Squawking Baseball looks at the how the Pirates are usings losing to win in the future.
Penny for your Rotation
Brad Penny
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Ken Rosenthal reports the Red Sox are about to sign Brad Penny to a one year deal:
The move would give the Red Sox the ability to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen and be patient with Clay Buchholz.
Or, trade one of those pitchers to Texas for a catcher.
Brad is great when he’s healthy, but 2008 wasn’t that year. With a sore shoulder, it was the worst of his career. Penny’s also played his career in home parks that favored the pitcher. His career ERA is 0.8 runs higher on the road than at home. I suspect the designated hitter and Fenway Park will raise his ERA a bit. For one year, however, it’s a risk worth taking.
The Market for Manny
Buster Olney looks at the teams interested in Manny Ramirez and comes out with one:
The Nationals apparently have money to spend, and in theory, if they were to sign Ramirez, it could be an interesting play. He would be a lure for fans and would give a reason for folks to tune in to watch the Nationals, something that very few people did last season. But here’s the quandary: For that gambit to pay off, Ramirez would have to play hard for the duration of his contract.
Would you be willing to bet $100 million on that?
Or even $40 million? Because as some general managers have said privately, a great concern they have about Ramirez is that if you give him a deal of two or more years that is worth far less than he thinks he deserves, you run the risk of having a very unhappy Manny. As the Red Sox can attest, that didn’t work out so well in the end. Thus, it’s almost a new year, and one of the greatest hitters of our lifetime who’s coming off one of the greatest showings of our lifetime is unemployed.
It strikes me that the Marlins would be a good place for Manny to land as well. The team is close to his Florida home, and the Marlins make enough in revenue sharing to pay for Manny’s contract. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Marlins become legitimate contenders with Manny on the team.
If I were a GM, I would offer him a $25 million, one year contract, with three team options of $27, $29 and $30 million dollars. That way, he’s always playing for a contract, and if he gets into one of his snits, the team can let him go at the end of the season.
You Can Buy Championships
Alex Belth dispels the idea that you can’t buy championships:
But facts are facts: since the start of free agency in 1977, no team has spent more money on players than the Yankees have; no team has won more pennants or more championships. So while no team can ever fool themselves that they can pre-arrange success (as George Steinbrenner was accused of believing in the Eighties), the Yankees aggressiveness in the free agency market hasn’t always back fired either.
I would also argue that the 1977 Yankees Championship was bought with Reggie Jackson. The 1997 Marlins certainly bought a champion (compare to the Indians who developed the team and signed players to long term contracts). The 2001 Diamondbacks wasn’t exactly home grown. I’m sure my readers can think of others.
There are many ways of building a champion, and buying a team works just as well as anything else.
Getting the Willys
The Reds sign Willy Taveras to lead off. Taveras is a pretty poor offensive players, never posting as OPS+ over 89. He’s not even much of an improvement over combined players used by the Reds in the leadoff slot in 2008. They combined for a .266/.326/.423 line. Willy’s career line is .283/.331/.337. So he gets on base a tiny bit more, but provides no power.
Did Walt Jocketty forget what a leadoff man does? This is the person who gets the most plate appearances for your team in a season, and he’s giving it to someone who provides a minimum of offense. With signings like this, don’t expect Cincinnati to rise to prominence any time soon.