The division preview series continues with what maybe the strongest division in baseball, the American League East. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players and designated hitter, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position player WAR: 28.2
• Starters WAR: 12.5
• Closer WAR: -0.7
• Total WAR: 40.0

The Rays return a very strong team for 2009. They excel at four of the five infield positions, and are great in centerfield once B.J. Upton returns from his injuries. I like the addition of Pat Burrell to the offense. He posted 3.2 value wins in 2008, and that’s with a downward adjustment for fielding. Since he doesn’t need to catch the ball, he won’t lose much of his offensive value.

Upton and Longoria are still in the improvement stage of their careers, so the top two hitters in terms of WAR on the team might put up even better numbers in 2009, especially if Upton’s repaired shoulder allows him to hit for power. If I had to pick a player to regress, it would be Dioner Navarro. He finally lived up to expectations in 2008, but until he repeats that kind of season, that’s a chance that it was just an outlier.

There’s some upside for the pitchers as well. Scott Kazmir is still listed as the ace, even though he posted the fourth highest WAR of the rotation. Healthy this season, he might pass James Shields’s 4.2 value wins of 2008. Troy Percival came in at -0.7, so either Troy or Isringhausen has a chance to at least flip the sign. At some point, David Price probably takes over at fifth starter and improves that position as well. Without much effort other than normal improvement, I can see Tampa Bay bringing their core WAR up to 44. They are in a good position to compete and repeat.

Boston Red Sox

• Position player WAR: 29.2
• Starters WAR: 15.6
• Closer WAR: 3.0
• Total WAR: 47.8

The Boston Red Sox start their first full season without Manny Ramirez, but still remained loaded with talent. The right side of their infield may be the most productive in baseball, with Youkilis and Pedoria combining for 12.1 value wins in 2008. There are chances for improvement as Julio Lugo may give way to Jed Lowrie at short, and a healthy David Ortiz might up his 2.0 WAR from 2008.

However, the Red Sox also show some age on offense. Varitek, Lowell, Drew and Ortiz might continue a downward trend. It will be fun to see how Jason Bay performs given a full season with the Red Sox. With better hitters around him, and a better organization encouraging him, I could see Bay posting a career year.

On the pitching side, the Red Sox are just as stacked. Beckett and Lester are an excellent 1-2 punch, and if Matsuzaka can gain some control he’ll be right with them. Tim Wakefield will continue to eat innings, and it’s quite possible that either Brad Penny or Clay Buchholz emerges as a fourth ace. I haven’t seen many closers so far with a WAR of 1.0 or higher, but Papelbon came in at 3.0 last season, the second highest score in the division for a ninth inning specialist.

The Red Sox come into the season in better shape than the Rays, but Tampa Bay looks like they have more upside, and the Red Sox more downside.

New York Yankees

• Position player WAR: 26.6
• Starters WAR: 23.1
• Closer WAR: 3.1
• Total WAR: 52.8

The Yankees return Posada, Matsui and Cano with value wins under 1.0. Brett Gardner is unlikely to improve much on Melky Cabrera’s 0.1 WAR. Yet the Yankees look like they are going to blow the division out of the water.

Their position players rank third in the AL East, but the 26.6 level is likely an underestimate of their offensive and defensive core. Full seasons from Posada and Matsui boost their 0.8 value wins, and if Cano just reverts to his mean, the Yankees will add three wins there. Those three are likely to make up for any downside on the part of Jeter, Damon and Nady.

Be on the lookout for a Nancy Kerrigan like recovery for Alex Rodriguez. Back in 1994, skater Kerrigan was whacked in the knee by the boyfriend of her rival skater, Tonya Harding. Kerrigan was force to rehabilitate her knee to get ready for the Olympics, and the therapy made her stronger, leading to the best performance of her life. A-Rod is going through that kind of training right now, possibly increasing his strength beyond what a normal spring training would bring. I could imagine him coming back and posting six months worth of number in five. (Of course, he’ll complain about Jeter’s makeup and everyone will hate him again.)

The Yankees real strength comes on the mound. CC Sabathia takes over as the ace of the rotation with consecutive seasons of 7+ value wins. A.J. Burnett’s 5.7 WAR in 2008 was better than both Beckett and Lester. Wang produced the lowest WAR of these five starters in 2008, and he still managed a 2.0 in half a season. Joba Chamberlain still has upside. Their impressive 23.1 WAR may very well be a conservative estimate! Add to that Rivera’s 3.1 value wins, and the core of their pitching staff is over seven wins better than any other team in the AL East. Without any help from the bench, New York is looking at a season with their wins in the high 90s. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.

The Yankees are going to be tough to beat unless everything goes wrong for them.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position player WAR: 16.1
• Starters WAR: 12.2
• Closer WAR: 1.0
• Total WAR: 29.3

The Blue Jays are treading water. They lose a great pitcher in Burnett, and now the carry three rookies in the rotation. Their main source for offensive improvement lies in Vernon Wells staying healthy and another young player, Travis Snider, coming into his own. It really seems like Toronto looked at the falling Canadian dollar, and the three stacked teams in front of them in the American League East and decided this wasn’t the year to compete.

They still have Roy Halladay, however, and two of the three rookies, Purcey and Mills bring impressive minor league strikeout numbers with them. Depending on rookie pitchers, however, is always an iffy proposition. The Blue Jays do have some upside, they are likely to have the curvature of the earth between them and Tampa Bay, Boston and New York by August.

Baltimore Orioles

• Position player WAR: 24.2
• Starters WAR: 4.4
• Closer WAR: 0.4
• Total WAR: 29.0

The Orioles position players aren’t that far behind the big three in the division. A sudden maturation by Felix Pie and Adam Jones could put them on par with the other three. Nick Markakis is as productive as the best players in the division, while Aubrey Huff and Brian Roberts both posted excellent 2008 seasons. There’s nothing really wrong with the Baltimore offense.

The problem is that the pitching staff allows a ton of runs, giving the offense a difficult problem every game. After Jeremy Guthrie, the starters are just bad or unknowns. Koji Uehara comes over from Japan with great control, but we’ve seen that doesn’t always translate to success in the US. Adam Eaton, one of the worst pitchers in the majors over the last two years, pulls down the third spot in the rotation, and it gets worse from there. The Orioles offense is going to need to be a lot better than they project to win with this staff. Still, they may be good enough to finish ahead of the Blue Jays.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the five teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Yankees, 32%
2. Red Sox, 30%
3. Rays, 28%
4. Blue Jays, 6%
5. Orioles, 4%

This should be a fantastic three team race, with two of these three teams going to the playoffs. They are not only the class of the division, they’re the class of the league. Maybe we can finally get a three-way tie, fitting for this trio of stacked teams.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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The division preview series continues with the big one, the six team National League Central. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.

Chicago Cubs

• Position player WAR: 28.0
• Starters WAR: 15.7
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 44.3

The Cubs are loaded. The only obvious weak links on the team are at fifth starter, where Sean Marshall posted a 0.6 WAR in 2008 and centerfield with Fukudome’s 1.8 WAR. Seven of the eight position players bring 2008 value wins of at least three into this season. The Cubs, to put it mildly, are stacked.

If you put the win level for a replacement team at 47 wins, that means the Cubs are over ninety wins with no contributions from their bench or the back of the bullpen. I seldom see a core of a team that good, with the exception of the Yankees and Red Sox over the last few seasons.

While almost every one is good, there are also no extremes on the team. Only Ryan Dempster posted a WAR over five in 2008, so it’s unlikely that one major injury can bring the team down. That’s not to say there isn’t a downside to this squad, however. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley are all on the wrong side of 30. We should start expecting declines in their stats. Rich Harden still has a history of injury, so his 4.5 WAR may be optimistic. On the other hand, no one is so extreme that a huge downward move is likely, and Carlos Zambrano might very well improve his 2.8 value wins by two or three. This is a very good team.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position player WAR: 20.7
• Starters WAR: 5.4
• Closer WAR: 0.1
• Total WAR: 25.2

CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets combined for 9.3 Brewers value wins in 2008, and Milwaukee simply hasn’t replaced those. Drop this team nine games and they fall from the wild card to fourth place in the division. A healthy Gallardo might recover three of those wins, but that still leads them in a huge hole, and the rest of the projected starters don’t appear to have much of an upside.

On offense, maybe Weeks and Fielder finally become +4.0 WAR players. I’m not knocking the pair, but given the hype over these two through their minor league careers, I expected more. Ryan Braun delivered on his promise, but Fielder and Weeks fall a bit short. That said, Hardy, Braun and Cameron give the Brewers three 4.0+ position players, so scoring runs won’t be the problem for the Brewers. With their pitching staff, however, those runs may not be enough.

Houston Astros

• Position player WAR: 20.5
• Starters WAR: 7.3
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 28.6

The Astros tie up a good chunk of their core value wins in two players, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Together they combine for 10.6 of the 28.6 value wins from 2008. Berkman is more than twice as good as the next nearest position player, beating Carlos Lee 6.9 to 3.4 in value wins. Oswalt isn’t quite that far ahead of Wandy Rodriguez, 3.7 to 2.7, but Wandy hasn’t been consistent through this career. If anything major happens to Lance or Roy, the Astros are in big trouble.

There is some upside in two of the younger hitters, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Both posted very strong on-base averages in the minors, which neither of them have come close to in the majors. Pence adds power to that equation. If the two can get on base at around a .360 rate, they should bring this offense a bit closer to the Cubs. I just don’t believe there’s enough at the back of the rotation, however, to catch Chicago.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position player WAR: 26.2
• Starters WAR: 8.4
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 35.2

The Cardinals look like the only team in the division with a legitimate shot at beating the Cubs. A big reason for that is the 8.9 value wins posted by Albert Pujols, a quarter of the core’s total. With his elbow repaired, he might even put up better numbers this year, if that is even possible. There’s some room for upside with two players, as Khalil Greene escapes from PETCO park and Chris Carpenter returns from injury. An increase of two value wins over 2008 by both players puts the core of the Cardinals very close to 40 wins above replacement.

There are some downside possibilities, too. The biggest is Troy Glaus, who starts the season on the disabled list after posting 5.3 value wins in 2008. Ludwick and Lohse both delivered seasons outside their career norms, so expecting a repeat of their great number may be asking too much. Still, if the upside and downside balance, the Cardinals should be in the high 80s in wins, and it only takes a little luck to go from there to the playoffs.

I saw today that Motte won the closer job, so I used his 0.6 WAR instead of Franklin’s -0.4. CBS Sports listed Franklin as the closer on their depth chart.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position player WAR: 13.6
• Starters WAR: 10.2
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 24.6

The Reds are in better shape than I imagined, mostly due to their pitching. Just replicating their 2008 WAR, the core staff should be the second best in the division. The nice thing for the Reds when it comes to pitching is that there’s plenty of upside available. Aaron Harang was off in 2008. Johnny Cueto is more experienced. Either Micah Owings or Homer Baily has a good chance to improve on Owings 1.0 WAR from 2008. If these three spots in the rotation can combine for five more wins, the core of the staff pulls fairly even with the Cubs.

They would also be better than their offense at that point. While I don’t expect any surprises from Ramon Hernandez, Alex Gonzazlez or Willy Taveras, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are just getting started. A full year of Bruce and continued improvement by Votto could add three or four wins to the offensive side of the equation as well. The Reds core goes to 30 value wins at that point. That’s not enough to put them over the top, but it might be enough to keep the race interesting into late summer.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position player WAR: 11.5
• Starters WAR: 6.1
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 18.5

There’s not much chance of the Pirates reaching 82 wins, ending the streak of seasons below .500. They’re half good up the middle with a good closer, catcher and centerfielder. The rest of the team leaves a lot to be desired. Even if Andy LaRoche posts a breakout season and Freddy Sanchez bounces back from a poor year, maybe that’s another seven wins. If everything goes right they might compete for fourth place.

The Pirates need to rebuild this team. Doumit, McLouth and Andy LaRoche are a start. They need to find someone who can produce 6 to 8 value wins a year, and then these players become good complements. If they start drafting well, they may be able to be like Tampa Bay and turn the team around quickly once the new youngsters are in place.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the six teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Cubs, 55%
2. Cardinals, 15%
3. Astros, 12%
4. Brewers, 10%
5. Reds, 7%
6. Pirates, 1%

The Cubs should win this division easily provided they stay healthy. Even with a couple of injuries they have enough depth to put together a very good season. The Cardinals should challenge for the wild card, but for the Astros, Brewers and Reds, they need unexpected players to post career years or some youngsters to really improve. It seems to me the excitement in the central this season will once again come from the wild card race rather than a close battle with the Chicago.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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