J.C. Bradbury’s new book, Hot Stove Economics: Understanding Baseball’s Second Season
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Monthly Archives: October 2010
New Handbook
The Bill James Handbook 2011
Alderson Takes Over
Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets general manager today, Friday.
Alderson indicated the Mets will not be big players in the free agent market, as there is little payroll flexibility in 2011, but indicated with money coming off the books for 2012, the Mets could re-enter the market.
I suspect Sandy will spend 2011 building a foundation for 2012. I’ll be interested to see in how he trades this winter.
Running Out of Pitchers
Don Mattingly ran out of pitchers in an Arizona Fall League game. This was obviously something he learned watching Joe Torre manage the All-Star game.
I don’t think you can blame Don too much here. In a major league game, a manager would have gone to a position player. That’s not going to happen in a development league.
Manager for a Prospect
There’s a story going around that the Marlins were willing to trade power hitting prospect Mike Stanton for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. River Ave. Blues puts out the case that this doesn’t make sense. My guess is the name came up from the White Sox end, and the Marlins rejected the deal. I agree with Joe:
If Loria actually put this on the table — I don’t even want to think about what it would mean if Loria offered it and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf rejected it.
It just doesn’t make sense.
Series Math
Chris Jaffe does the math on what a two-game lead means for the rest of the series.
For any baseball fans out there, 21 of the 27 times the down team won Game Three, the Series went at least six games. It’s NEVER happened when the down team losses another one. So if you want a longer World Series, history says to root for the Rangers to win the next one.
Go Rangers!
Long series also generate better television ratings, since fans seem to love a winner take all game.
Batter Versus Pitcher Predictions
This post by Tom Tango started me thinking about batter pitcher match ups and the predictive ability of a small number of plate appearances. To that end, I’ve developed queries to look at how batters and pitchers perform against each other before and after a certain number of at bats.
This spreadsheet lists all pitchers Barry Bonds faced at least 40 times in his career. The data show his on base (hits+bb+hbp) and his PA (ab+bb+hbp+sf) for the first 20 PA against the pitcher and his last X PA against the pitcher. I then compute the probability that over the last X PA, Bonds would reach base that many times if the OBP from the first 20 PA was his true rate of getting on base against that pitcher. The final two columns show if the probability fell in the 95% confidence interval or a narrower 20% confidence interval (an okay prediction vs. a great prediction). As you can see, for Barry Bonds, his first 20 PA against a pitcher was a poor predictor of his future performance against them. I’ll be doing more work on this as time goes on.
Update: Here’s a look at a different type of hitter who also played a long time, Tony Fernandez.
Cain is Able
Matt Cain pitched great in two dimensions in game two of the World Series Thursday night. First, he kept the ball out of the middle of the strike zone.
Matt Cain pitch frequency, game 2 2010 World Series. Ian Kinsler double overlayed.
Matt also kept the ball from sinking, which helped him get all those easy fly balls.
Matt Cain pitch movement, game 2 2010 World Series. Ian Kinsler double overlayed.
Note that the pitch Ian Kinsler hit for a double, a long fly ball off the top of the wall in center, was not a mistake by Cain. Ian deserves kudos for hitting that pitch as far as he did. It was moving away from him, up in the zone, and near the outside edge of the plate. A little more inside, and Kinsler might have pulled it for a massive home run. Note that Cain also used his pitch sequence to cause Kinsler to just miss as well. He went up the ladder, not only in terms of location, but in terms of drop. Each pitch in the plate appearance dropped less than the previous one.
Otherwise, the Rangers got under balls all night, and all the other fly balls resulted in outs.
See this post on Matt’s ability to keep the ball up.
Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the graphs.
Guillen’s Absence
The New York Times reports on why Jose Guillen was kept off the Giants post-season roster:
Jose Guillen, the San Francisco Giants outfielder, was kept off the team’s postseason roster shortly after federal authorities informed Major League Baseball that he was tied to an investigation into shipments of performance-enhancing drugs, according to several lawyers briefed on the matter.
HGH was shipped to Guillen’s wife according to the story. San Francisco seems to be doing just fine without him as they are up 2-0 in the World Series.
Yes We Cain
Matt Cain pitches 7 2/3 shutout innings as the Giants defeat the Rangers 9-0 in the second game of the 2010 World Series. Cain faced 29 batters, 25 put the ball in play, and 13 of those were fly balls. Only one of those went for a hit as Ian Kinsler missed a home run by inches. Cain demonstrated his ability to get batters to put the ball in the air but keep those in the park.
Despite the score, the game was close. There was no score until Edgar Renteria hit a home run in the bottom of the fifth, and until a seven run eighth, the game could have gone either way. Edgar drove in three in the game, while Juan Uribe lived up to his name with two more RBI, giving him five for the series.
C.J. Wilson pitched well for Texas, but a blister forced him out of the game. He allowed three hits and two walks in six innings, but the bullpen gave up five hits and four walks in two innings.
The Giants knocked out eight hits, four for extra bases. In the series, 11 of the Giants 22 hits have gone for extra bases as they are out-powering the Giants.
Texas needs to win two at home to send the series back to San Francisco next week.
Top of the Ninth
The Rangers come up in the top of the ninth down 9-0. Guillermo Mota comes in to pitch for San Francisco. Nelson Cruz grounds out to third for the first out.
Update: Ian Kinsler falls behind 1-2. He works the count full, then flies to right for the second out.
Update: David Murphy gets ahead 2-1. Mota works the count full, then walks Murphy.
Update: Jeff Francoeur pinch hits. He hits a 1-1 pitch to right to end the game. The Giants win 9-0 and go up 2-0 in the series.
Loaded with Giants
After a two-out Buster Posey single in the bottom of the eighth, Derek Holland comes in and walks Nate Schierholtz and Cody Ross to load the bases for Aubrey Huff. San Francisco is trying to add to their 2-0 lead.
Update: The third straight walk brings in the third Giants run. Holland can’t find the strike zone, and the Giants lead the Rangers 3-0.
Update: It doesn’t matter who is pitching as Mark Lowe walks Juan Uribe for a 4-0 Giants lead. That’s five RBI in the series for Uribe.
Update: With the runners moving on a 3-2 pitch, Edgar Renteria ends the walk parade with a two-run single to left. The Giants lead 6-0 as they’ve turned a pitching duel into a rout.
Update: I wonder what the record is for consecutive walks in a World Series game? I suspect it’s more than four, but probably not much more.
Update: I pulled out my old Sporting News record book through 1999. They had the consecutive walk record for a pitcher at three. They don’t have the record for a team.
Update: Michael Kirkman comes in to pitch, and Aaron Rowand delivers a two-run triple to right-center. The Giants lead 8-0 as the eighth inning may never end. Seven straight batters have reached with two outs in the inning.
Update: The hits keep coming as Andres Torres doubles to extend the lead to 9-0. If someone hits a home run, the Giants will have hit for the cycle in the inning.
Update: Freddy Sanchez makes the second and third out of the inning as he strikes out to send the game to the ninth. The Rangers need nine runs to pull even as the Giants lead 9-0.
Elvis Walks
Elvis Andrus draws a one-out walk in the top of the eighth. That’s the first unintentional walk Cain issued in the game. Andrus steals second as Edgar Renteria did not catch the throw from Buster Posey.
Update: Michael Young flies out to right, and that’s it for Matt Cain. Bochy goes to the bullpen with Josh Hamilton coming to the plate. The crowd goes wild as Cain leaves the field with a 2-0 lead over the Rangers.
Update: Javier Lopez comes on to face Hamilton. He gets Josh to fly out in to center, and the shutout continues. Cain pitches 7 2/3 shutout innings and maintains his 0.00 post season ERA.
Walking Ross
C.J. Wilson walks Cody Ross leading off the bottom of the seventh. We’ll see if Wilson stays in as it appears he developed a blister. That will allow Darren Oliver all the time he needs to warm up. Ross is on at first with a 1-0 Giants lead.
Update: Ross moves up to second on a ground out to first. One down.
Update: Another RBI for Uribe as he singles to center to drive in Cody Ross. That gives Juan Uribe four RBI in the first two games of the World Series. The Giants lead 2-0.
Update: That’s all the Giants get. Matt Cain strikes out to end the inning as Bruce Bochy doesn’t seem to be interested in going to his bullpen tonight. Cain will pitch the eighth. He has not allowed an earned run this post season in 20 2/3 innings, and now he holds a 2-0 lead.
Wilson earns a quality start, allowing two runs in 6+ innings of work. He allowed three hits and two walks, but one of those hits left the park, and his bullpen allowed an inherited runner to score.
Stretch Time
The Rangers go 1-2-3 in the top of the seventh as the Giants maintain their 1-0 lead. Matt Cain has induced 12 fly balls, 11 of them for outs. The one hit stayed in the park as Ian Kinsler hit the top of the wall in centerfield for a double. Cain faced 26 batters, so this percentage is vintage Matt.
Two on For Texas
Michael Young and Josh Hamilton single with one out in the top of the sixth to put men on first and second for Nelson Cruz. Cruz has the only two strikeouts for Texas tonight. The first pitch from Cain goes to the backstop and both runners move up a base.
Update: Cain gets Cruz to pop up for the second out.
Update: Kinsler flies out to right and Cain pitches out of the jam. The Giants continue to lead 1-0.
Edgar Goes Deep
Edgar Renteria doesn’t fool around with the top of the fence. He sends a home run down the leftfield line and rows back in the stands to give the Giants a 1-0 lead with one out in the bottom of the fifth.
Update: That’s all the Giants get, but with Matt Cain not giving up an earned run in the post season, that may be enough. The Giants lead the Rangers 1-0 after five innings.
Just in the Park
Ian Kinsler hits a ball as far as you can hit it at AT&T park and have it stay in the park. It hits off the top of the wall in centerfield and bounces back for a double. Matt Cain really can keep fly balls from going out. 🙂 Ian stands on second with none out in a scoreless game in the top of the fifth inning.
Update: A lined drive and a ground ball to the shortstop keep Kinsler at second and brings the out total to two. The Giants decide to walk Mitch Moreland to pitch to C.J. Wilson. We’ll see if Washington sends up a pinch hitter.
Update: No, C.J. Wilson bats.
Update: Wilson grounds out to first, and a couple of inches on a fly ball keeps the game scoreless at the halfway mark.
Burrell Walks
Like Wednesday night, Pat Burrell draws the first walk of the night for the Giants, this time with one out in the bottom of the fourth.
Update: Pat goes nowhere as Wilson gets two quick outs to end the inning. Ath the end of four, both pitchers own two strikeouts and allowed no runs, and both continue to work efficiently.
End of Three
Matt Cain single in the bottom of the third but doesn’t go anywhere as the game remains scoreless after three innings. Cain alllowed one hit while striking out just one, and threw just 35 pitches so far. C.J. Wilson also struck out just one while allowing two hits. He’s up to 44 pitches, so both starters are working efficiently.
Texas First Hit
Mitch Moreland singles to right for the Rangers first hit with one out in the top of the third. C.J. Wilson bunts him over to second.
Update: Elvis Andrus flies out to center for the second time. Still no score in the middle of the third.
First Hit
Cody Ross doubles with one out in the bottom of the second, the first hit of game two. Ross picks up his 13th hit of the post season, five of them doubles and four home runs.
Update: Ross gets to third base but can’t score. The game remains scoreless after two innings.
Ground Game
C.J. Wilson gets two ground balls in his retiring the side in order in the bottom of the first. Neither pitcher has yet to strike out a batter as World Series game two remains scoreless after one inning.
World Series Game Two Underway
Matt Cain gets Elvis Andrus to fly out to center to start game two of the 2010 World Series.
Update: Cain gets two pop ups to end the inning. The Giants come up for the bottom of the first with no score in the game.
Game Two Coming Up
Willie Mays was ill yesterday and did not throw out the first pitch, but he’s always at the ballpark.
Willie Mays statue, AT&T Park, before 2010 World Series game two. Photo: James F. Storer
C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain meet in about 1/2 hour.
World Series Music
MMN lists the best musical performances at the World Series. They leave out Linda Ronstadt’s national anthem, which was simple and brisk. My least favorite was Sammy Davis, Jr., who took about 10 minutes to sing the song.
Better Defense
The Rangers opted to go with the better defensive team and the platoon advantage as David Murphy starts in rightfield for Texas in game two of the World Series. It’s a small difference over four at bats and a few fly balls, but it’s good to see Ron Washington increasing the team’s chance of success against the Giants and Matt Cain.
Free Agent List
MLB Trade Rumors published the Elias Rankings of free agents.
Playoffs Today
The Rangers and Giants take the field for game two of the World Series just a bit before 8 PM EDT Thursday night. There is some rain in the forecast as C.J. Wilson battles Matt Cain. Wilson pitched two strong starts and a poor one in the playoffs so far. The difference was his control. He walked four in his first two starts covering 13 1/3 innings, then four in his five innings in his second start against the Yankees.
Wilson is devastating against left-handed batters, allowing .144/.224/.176 slash line during the regular season. Aubrey Huff should be the only one in the lineup against him. Wilson is still very good against righties with a .236/.333/.346 slash line. It’s tough to hit for power against him. He also might be a good pitcher to break the Texas ten game losing streak as his ERA dropped 0.8 runs away from Texas this season. Wilson likes to throw to the low-outside corner of the strike zone. Looking at the Rangers starting lineup, Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez are most likely to take advantage of pitches there.
Cain pitched very well against American League this season, holding Oakland and Toronto to four runs in 22 2/3 innings. Despite striking out just 11, he allowed just four walks and 19 hits, including one home run. Cain does a great job of inducing balls in the air that stay in the park. The Rangers as a team had the second lowest fly ball percentage in the AL, so this should be an interesting matchup.
Matt pitched great at home this year, with a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate. I suspect the dimensions of the park also helped him.
Matt allowed just one run in the playoffs so far, and it was unearned. A low post-season ERA didn’t help Cliff Lee last night so we’ll see if Can can continue his dominance.
Enjoy!
Weeds in the Outfield
Josh Hamilton smelled something funny in the outfield of AT&T Park:
The New York Post quotes Josh Hamilton as saying he could smell weed last night while playing center field at AT&T Park.
“It was crazy,” he told the tabloid. “I was looking at the cops a couple of times during the game.”
Hamilton didn’t attribute any of the Rangers’ four errors to the pot fumes — but Vlad Guerrero’s bumbling, two-error performance in right field does makes one wonder.
The fans might have shared, but the Rangers outfielders only brought papers. 🙂