Monthly Archives: February 2011

February 28, 2011

The House that Jeter Built

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Emma Span wonders about Derek Jeter’s mansion:

Jeter won’t talk about this – the mansion, not the definition of a boat lift – which is understandable, but I’m genuinely curious as to what his thinking was here.

The house is rather symmetrical, leading me to believe it’s two houses in one. Derek’s parents are likely approaching retirement (his dad is in his early 60s), and it’s quite possible he built half the house for them. It’s clearly going to be a party house, and maybe Derek wants lots of space to host charity events. He might even be planning a big family.

It’s probably a good investment as well. With real estate in the tank and not that much building happening, Jeter probably got the land and the construction cost for a very good price. The next time the economy booms, I bet he makes a killing on the place.

February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011

Five-Year PMR, Leftfielders

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The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with leftfielders. Here is the data for the teams in left over the five year span:

Team leftfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
CHN 15774 1536 1439.3 0.097 0.091 106.7
ATL 15636 1494 1401.5 0.096 0.090 106.6
PIT 18139 1594 1497.5 0.088 0.083 106.4
KCA 18757 1781 1679.8 0.095 0.090 106.0
NYA 15628 1586 1504.5 0.101 0.096 105.4
TBA 17771 1722 1640.0 0.097 0.092 105.0
MIL 17605 1541 1470.1 0.088 0.084 104.8
BAL 18601 1775 1703.9 0.095 0.092 104.2
ARI 15518 1619 1554.6 0.104 0.100 104.1
COL 17608 1462 1415.8 0.083 0.080 103.3
LAN 15747 1416 1379.9 0.090 0.088 102.6
SFN 15583 1566 1526.4 0.100 0.098 102.6
WAS 13948 1620 1601.8 0.116 0.115 101.1
BOS 15990 1512 1501.2 0.095 0.094 100.7
SEA 18929 1668 1659.2 0.088 0.088 100.5
DET 16254 1624 1618.3 0.100 0.100 100.4
SDN 15744 1574 1578.5 0.100 0.100 99.7
NYN 15106 1529 1544.6 0.101 0.102 99.0
ANA 18139 1617 1642.7 0.089 0.091 98.4
TEX 16842 1603 1630.1 0.095 0.097 98.3
OAK 17009 1614 1649.7 0.095 0.097 97.8
CLE 19103 1585 1622.7 0.083 0.085 97.7
TOR 17621 1372 1439.9 0.078 0.082 95.3
MIN 17584 1584 1665.9 0.090 0.095 95.1
SLN 16933 1455 1548.5 0.086 0.091 94.0
CHA 18013 1555 1663.2 0.086 0.092 93.5
CIN 18020 1512 1627.7 0.084 0.090 92.9
PHI 14144 1380 1485.7 0.098 0.105 92.9
FLO 16420 1423 1548.2 0.087 0.094 91.9
HOU 18038 1318 1489.6 0.073 0.083 88.5

From this one might expect Alfonso Soriano to be a pretty good leftfielder. He’s okay, but I guess everyone else who filled in was really good:

Individual leftfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Jay Payton 4591 492 420.2 0.107 0.092 117.1
Matt Diaz 4924 537 461.7 0.109 0.094 116.3
David DeJesus 5747 569 504.3 0.099 0.088 112.8
Johnny Damon 4957 494 456.4 0.100 0.092 108.2
Eric Byrnes 4067 445 411.5 0.109 0.101 108.1
Carl Crawford 14539 1447 1347.8 0.100 0.093 107.4
Ryan Braun 9738 859 819.1 0.088 0.084 104.9
Juan Pierre 5897 560 540.4 0.095 0.092 103.6
Jason Bay 13991 1275 1237.0 0.091 0.088 103.1
Luke Scott 4081 360 352.5 0.088 0.086 102.1
Shannon Stewart 4258 388 382.5 0.091 0.090 101.4
Alfonso Soriano 11797 1163 1148.8 0.099 0.097 101.2
David Murphy 4343 421 419.5 0.097 0.097 100.3
Matt Holliday 15908 1346 1353.0 0.085 0.085 99.5
Scott Podsednik 8245 763 768.9 0.093 0.093 99.2
Juan Rivera 6407 583 589.7 0.091 0.092 98.9
Emil Brown 4408 403 408.7 0.091 0.093 98.6
Fred Lewis 5194 478 492.6 0.092 0.095 97.0
Jason Michaels 5343 436 450.7 0.082 0.084 96.7
Garret Anderson 8106 701 734.6 0.086 0.091 95.4
Luis Gonzalez 6334 553 581.7 0.087 0.092 95.1
Chris Coghlan 4039 364 383.0 0.090 0.095 95.0
Adam Dunn 9522 833 890.6 0.087 0.094 93.5
Barry Bonds 4055 350 376.5 0.086 0.093 93.0
Raul Ibanez 14482 1253 1349.4 0.087 0.093 92.9
Manny Ramirez 8953 750 808.1 0.084 0.090 92.8
Josh Willingham 10019 911 983.5 0.091 0.098 92.6
Adam Lind 4535 356 388.7 0.079 0.086 91.6
Carlos Quentin 4582 390 428.8 0.085 0.094 91.0
Pat Burrell 7730 704 778.7 0.091 0.101 90.4
Craig Monroe 4170 351 392.7 0.084 0.094 89.4
Chris Duncan 4449 376 423.7 0.085 0.095 88.7
Delmon Young 8084 694 802.6 0.086 0.099 86.5
Carlos Lee 14907 1069 1238.1 0.072 0.083 86.3

At least the Royals are above average somewhere in the field. It’s not surprise that Carl Crawford is the best long term leftfielder and the slugging Carlos Lee is the worst. It also appears moving Ryan Braun off third base was the right strategy.

FanGraphs agrees on the top ranking for Carl Crawford, and also rates Soriano and Matt Murton highly.

February 28, 2011

Towers’s Power

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Kevin Towers suffered due to the many changes of CEO in San Diego. He likes his position in Arizona as the GM the owners wanted:

Here, Towers is the chosen one, the general manager who reports to the same people who hired him. In San Diego, he had become a holdover inherited by a dizzying succession of supervisors.

This is the difference between being the fair-haired boy and the balding brother-in-law.

“When they pick you, there’s a sense of comfort,” Towers said. “There’s still pressure, but there’s comfort as opposed to new CEOs coming in all the time and you weren’t their hand-picked guy. And I got that a lot. I went through seven CEOs (in San Diego).

“I wasn’t comfortable. Those last 2-3 years, I just didn’t know where I sat. … I’m so much happier (now). This is probably the best I’ve felt since I’ve been a GM. I’ve felt I have more freedom here than any of the years in San Diego.”

Mr. Towers also likes to drop f-bombs. The whole article is worth the read to see just how bad things got in San Diego.

February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011

Goold on Bill James

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Derrick Goold writes an excellent profile of Bill James for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

In the past 20 years, it’s become clear that James cannot be taken out of baseball either. From the scoreboards that feature an alphabet soup of stats to the Cy Young Award voting, James’ influence and the rise of sabermetrics are everywhere. In the past two years, Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez have won their league’s highest pitching honors with two of the lowest win totals in the award’s history. The false value of a pitcher’s record is a “Moneyball” tenet, and its acceptance by voters is due in part to James and his myth-busting.

I’d make it 30 years, since I first saw a Baseball Abstract in 1982.

February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011

Ozzie Down the Middle

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Ozzie Guillen tried to decide if he should bat Adam Dunn or Alex Rios third, and yesterday he decided on Dunn. The Lineup Analysis Tool took yesterday’s lineup (substituting Mark Teahen at third) and used Marcel projections to see how it would do. Ozzie came out on the high side, with his lineup projected to score 4.8 runs per game. The best scores 4.9 runs per game, the worst 4.6. There is a group of good players (Beckham, Dunn, Korerko and Quentin) that are fairly even, and a group of poor hitters (everyone else), who are also pretty even. So as long as Ozzie gets the better players at the top and the poorer ones at the bottom, he’ll use something close to the optimum order.

February 28, 2011

Wild Perez

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One poor spring training start should not matter that much. Oliver Perez, however, needs to show he changed:

In allowing four earned runs in two innings, while striking out three, walking three and throwing just 25 of 44 pitches for strikes, Perez did not appear ready to contribute to a major league team. Technically, he will have about two more weeks to prove he can do so as a starter, as Warthen, the pitching coach, expects to eliminate rotation candidates around March 10. It is difficult, though, to imagine Perez as a legitimate contender. The team could send him to the bullpen, or release him. The Mets could also try to send him to the minors, but due to the collective bargaining agreement, he can refuse the assignment, as he did last season. Regardless, Perez still is owed $12 million for the last year of his contract.

His fastball topped out at 86. It would take quite an optimist to see something positive in that start, especially when his career is hanging by a thread.

February 28, 2011 February 28, 2011 February 27, 2011 February 27, 2011 February 27, 2011 February 27, 2011

Mediation

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Terry Francona took care of the war of words between Bobby Jenks and Ozzie Guillen:

Jenks, entering his first season with Boston, has been in a back-and-forth exchange with his former White Sox manager since signing with the Red Sox as a free agent. Francona said on Sunday that he has reached out to Guillen and Chicago bench coach Joey Cora about the dispute.

“That’s over,” Francona said. “I spoke to Bobby, actually went back and forth with Ozzie, not speaking, but messages. I’m confident that will be over.

“I don’t care if they like each other, but Bobby is a Red Sox and we need to move on. I think [Guillen] understands that.

“Just making sure it goes away. It doesn’t need to happen.”

That’s just another reason to like Francona, he does a great job taking care of his players.

February 27, 2011

Snider Passes

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Duke Snider died:

Duke Snider, one of the Brooklyn Dodgers’ Boys of Summer and one of three outstanding New York center fielders in the 1950s, died Sunday. He was 84.

Snider died at the Valle Vista Convalescent Hospital in Escondido, the Dodgers announced. No cause was given.

In 18 seasons, Snider posted a .295/.380/.540 slash line, impressive for that era. He led the NL in slugging percentage twice and OBP once. He led the league in runs scored three times and scored 100 runs six times. Those numbers helped him make the Hall of Fame in 1980.

He hit the last home run in Ebbets Field and had the first hit in Dodger Stadium, a single on opening day in 1962, and was part of the 1959 Los Angeles Dodgers team that beat the Chicago White Sox in the World Series.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

February 27, 2011

Humidor Talk

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Joe Torre doesn’t buy into conspiracies. I really like this statement on monitoring the humidor at Coors Field:

Torre said if numerous teams complain, he would have to investigate, but he doesn’t foresee that being the case. And for one specific reason: It’s baseball, and people talk.

“Too many players change teams, so this stuff wouldn’t be a secret,” Torre said. “Even if it’s just done at your home field, somebody is going to tell somebody. So it’s tough to really put any credibility in it.”

This is why you shouldn’t buy into long-term conspiracy theories.

February 27, 2011 February 27, 2011 February 27, 2011

Out of Context Comparison

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In an article about David Ortiz‘s future with the Red Sox, Nick Cafardo makes this comparison:

It’s interesting that Ortiz’s 32-102 numbers were almost identical to Gonzalez’s 31-101 last season. Gonzalez had a slightly better OPS (.904-.899), but this is where the perception of Ortiz gets a little fuzzy — that he’s a player on the decline while Gonzalez is a player on the rise.

Really? Nothing about the park context or the league context? FanGraphs credits Ortiz with 26.4 runs over average in 2010 and a WAR of 3.3. During his prime with the Red Sox (2004-2007), Ortiz averaged about 50 runs per year and a WAR around six. Gonzalez posted his two best years in terms of runs and WAR in 2009-2010. I don’t think the perception of Ortiz is fuzzy at all.

February 27, 2011

Unhip

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Justin Duchscherer’s hip is bothering him again.

Asked about his level of frustration, Duchscherer replied, “Ten out of 10. I hope I wasn’t rude yesterday. I just wasn’t in the mood to talk about it. It’s been a long road. It’s certainly difficult.

“I know what it’s supposed to feel like, and I know the last couple days it hasn’t felt as good as it was feeling, so when something like that happens, obviously my first move is to go in there and say, ‘Hey, something’s not right. Let’s see what we can do to keep it from getting worse.’ That’s kind of where we’re at.”

He’s undergone three hip surgeries, so Justin is not taking any chances with his soreness.

February 27, 2011

Torre and Robinson

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Murray Chass rips Bud Selig over the hiring of Joe Torre while passing over Frank Robinson. Chass also claims that Selig is not the driving force for diversity in baseball:

But taking a closer look at Selig’s contribution to diversity developments, he doesn’t deserve as much credit as he has received. Not that he’ll talk about it or take credit for what he has done, but the man behind much of the progress African-American matters have made in baseball is Leonard Coleman, the last president of the National League before the leagues were merged into the central office of Major League Baseball.

Among other things, Coleman was the driving force behind Selig’s decision to retire Jackie Robinson’s uniform No. 42.

However, Coleman, who does not have a position in baseball, works quietly behind the scenes while Selig receives tons of publicity daily through his publicity mill a.k.a. MLB.com.

Plenty of bosses get credit for their employees work. It seems to me that minority hiring improved under Bud. Even if Coleman is the driving force, Selig deserves credit for taking the advice.

February 26, 2011

The Wang Way

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Chien-Ming Wang is ahead of schedule:

Wang has seemingly recaptured the sinking action on his fastball that once helped him win 19 games in consecutive seasons for the New York Yankees. During his live batting practice session today – watched by front office assistant Bob Boone, pitching coach Steve McCatty, Manager Jim Riggleman and Rizzo – Wang broke Danny Espinosa’s bat with one sinker and induced a slew of groundballs.

A right Wang would be a great addition to the Nationals rotation.

February 26, 2011 February 26, 2011 February 26, 2011