Monthly Archives: February 2011

February 26, 2011 February 26, 2011 February 26, 2011

Five-Year PMR, Rightfielders

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with rightfielders. Here is the data for the teams in right over the five year span:

Team rightfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
TEX 17063 1816 1664.4 0.106 0.098 109.1
ARI 18222 1596 1486.0 0.088 0.082 107.4
FLO 15005 1744 1628.4 0.116 0.109 107.1
CLE 16448 1718 1623.7 0.104 0.099 105.8
CIN 19014 1859 1768.9 0.098 0.093 105.1
SDN 18477 1642 1565.8 0.089 0.085 104.9
TOR 15576 1522 1462.0 0.098 0.094 104.1
SFN 16350 1756 1692.9 0.107 0.104 103.7
HOU 18435 1702 1646.5 0.092 0.089 103.4
WAS 15208 1819 1767.7 0.120 0.116 102.9
KCA 18252 1767 1739.5 0.097 0.095 101.6
MIN 17388 1639 1617.1 0.094 0.093 101.4
OAK 14344 1705 1684.4 0.119 0.117 101.2
PHI 16848 1667 1653.6 0.099 0.098 100.8
CHA 14957 1592 1583.7 0.106 0.106 100.5
BOS 17028 1569 1561.2 0.092 0.092 100.5
TBA 14795 1697 1694.1 0.115 0.115 100.2
NYA 15578 1657 1653.8 0.106 0.106 100.2
SLN 19101 1590 1607.5 0.083 0.084 98.9
LAN 17788 1538 1563.4 0.086 0.088 98.4
NYN 14262 1637 1689.5 0.115 0.118 96.9
MIL 18218 1684 1749.2 0.092 0.096 96.3
BAL 17931 1674 1740.7 0.093 0.097 96.2
ATL 17318 1538 1606.5 0.089 0.093 95.7
SEA 17452 1657 1745.2 0.095 0.100 94.9
ANA 15609 1604 1691.5 0.103 0.108 94.8
PIT 18249 1650 1747.4 0.090 0.096 94.4
CHN 16072 1632 1733.3 0.102 0.108 94.2
DET 15483 1533 1645.3 0.099 0.106 93.2
COL 18078 1404 1536.7 0.078 0.085 91.4

A comparison of FanGraphs range runs shows that four of the top eight teams are shared between the two lists. The top teams on the objective PMR list tend to have younger outfielders:

Individual rightfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Nelson Cruz 6996 809 706.4 0.116 0.101 114.5
Alexis Rios 8847 859 783.4 0.097 0.089 109.7
Jay Bruce 6701 686 629.4 0.102 0.094 109.0
Randy Winn 8227 940 867.5 0.114 0.105 108.4
Justin Upton 8906 799 738.7 0.090 0.083 108.2
Nick Swisher 5275 639 599.4 0.121 0.114 106.6
Hunter Pence 10667 1035 976.6 0.097 0.092 106.0
Jeremy Hermida 7305 843 797.4 0.115 0.109 105.7
Shin-Soo Choo 6720 702 664.2 0.104 0.099 105.7
Carlos Quentin 4297 417 397.1 0.097 0.092 105.0
Ryan Ludwick 8676 751 721.7 0.087 0.083 104.1
Jayson Werth 7953 828 798.4 0.104 0.100 103.7
Gabe Gross 4208 472 459.6 0.112 0.109 102.7
Austin Kearns 8814 1034 1008.4 0.117 0.114 102.5
Jermaine Dye 10036 1090 1067.6 0.109 0.106 102.1
J.D. Drew 12711 1157 1133.0 0.091 0.089 102.1
Mark Teahen 5593 553 544.8 0.099 0.097 101.5
Brian Giles 10894 900 908.1 0.083 0.083 99.1
Kosuke Fukudome 4981 515 521.4 0.103 0.105 98.8
Ichiro Suzuki 10925 1098 1116.5 0.101 0.102 98.3
Ken Griffey 5169 452 461.7 0.087 0.089 97.9
Corey Hart 11591 1081 1121.0 0.093 0.097 96.4
Milton Bradley 4013 437 455.1 0.109 0.113 96.0
Vladimir Guerrero 6460 670 697.8 0.104 0.108 96.0
Michael Cuddyer 10977 940 983.7 0.086 0.090 95.6
Geoff Jenkins 4295 388 406.2 0.090 0.095 95.5
Nick Markakis 16303 1503 1574.9 0.092 0.097 95.4
Shawn Green 4313 423 446.3 0.098 0.103 94.8
Jeff Francoeur 15257 1462 1541.6 0.096 0.101 94.8
Andre Ethier 9976 850 899.7 0.085 0.090 94.5
Bobby Abreu 13317 1294 1369.1 0.097 0.103 94.5
Jose Guillen 8014 747 791.7 0.093 0.099 94.4
Xavier Nady 6061 583 643.0 0.096 0.106 90.7
Juan Encarnacion 4275 344 380.6 0.080 0.089 90.4
Brad Hawpe 13340 1024 1144.4 0.077 0.086 89.5
Magglio Ordonez 10859 1022 1156.1 0.094 0.106 88.4

The bottom of the list does tend to be on the older side. I’m always surprised when Ichiro doesn’t do that well in PMR, especially in rightfield. However, he’s no longer a young man, so given average standing, it’s not bad at all. Range Runs likes Ichiro at lot better than objective PMR. Nelson Cruz, Randy Winn and Jay Bruce rate highly there, too, so there’s agreement as well.

February 26, 2011 February 25, 2011

Same Arm, Different Speed

Neftali Feliz figured out how to throw a change with the same arm action as his fastball:

“At times last year, he had a good breaking ball, but today he had really good arm action,” said Napoli, who was 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in five regular-season plateappearances againstFeliz while with the Los Angeles Angels. “Last year, we thought he slowed his arm up and gave it away a little. I couldn’t tell any difference in the arm speed today.”

The. Rangers wanted Feliz to develop another pitch before becoming a starter. Maybe that happened.

February 25, 2011 February 25, 2011

Torre! Torre! Torre!

Joe Torre’s long rumored hire by MLB should take place tomorrow:

Major League Baseball is expected to announce tomorrow that longtime player and manager Joe Torre will be appointed to a major role in the commissioner’s office as the executive vice president for baseball operations.

In the new role, Torre would oversee on-field operations, making him one of the top executives at MLB’s offices in New York.

Congratulations to Joe. He’s an excellent personnel manager.

February 25, 2011 February 25, 2011

Mechanical Adjustment

Ross Detwiler explains with video the adjustments he made to his mechanics this winter.

Ross Detwiler, having fully recovered from the hip surgery that derailed his 2010 season, has stood out this spring training. Pitchers have been limited to just bullpen sessions and live batting practice, but one Nationals officials said he’s looked like the best pitcher in the entire camp.

February 25, 2011

MIT-Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Panels

Next Friday and most of Saturday I’ll be attending the MIT-Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The list of panels is now up. The baseball analytics panel will be the most interesting one to me, but I’d like your input on what other panels might be relevant to Baseball Musings readers. Let me know in the comments.

You can follow the conference on Twitter as well with the SSAC tag.

February 25, 2011 February 25, 2011

Where do Sabermetrics Matter More?

Both Rob Neyer and MGL comment on the Angels use of sabermetrics. It appears the front office gets statistical input when making decisions, but Mike Scioscia isn’t crazy about the fielding metrics.

Reading all that led me to the question, do sabermetrics matter more to the manager or the front office? Most managers do a good job of finding the correct level of bunting and stealing based on the strength of the offense. We know lineups don’t matter that much. Most use spray charts for positioning defenders. Very few are going to sit a great player because some sub went 5 for 5 against a certain pitcher.

So I might contend that the use of numbers is much more important to the front office. They need to value a player correctly. They need to be able to distinguish skill from luck. The need to build a team with the right balance of offense, pitching and defense. If they give a major league manager a good team, very few will screw it up.

February 25, 2011

Morgan on the Run

Jack Moore discusses Nyjer Morgan’s poor base stealing percentage:

EQSBR confirms our rule of thumb. Morgan has a total EQSBR of -5.09 runs for his career, including an abysmal -2.91 mark for the 2010 season, when Morgan stole 34 bases but was caught 17 times. A closer look at the Baseball Prospectus statistic report for 2010, however, shows 58 stolen base opportunities (SB_OPPS), not 51, as his 34 SBs plus 17 CSs would suggest. This reveals another black mark on Morgan’s running record: he was picked off seven times (PO – PCS under the Baserunning header) by opposing pitchers. Instead of 34 successes against 17 failures, that shifts Morgan’s record to 34 successes against 24 failures, an unacceptable mark which suggests that the Nationals would be better off with Morgan staying put.

Being fast isn’t good enough. A base stealer needs to pick his spots. Part of that is knowing the pitcher and catcher. I don’t know how much Morgan runs on his own. If he does, the coaching staff should reign him in. If the staff is already calling his steals, then the Nationals need a new coach.

February 25, 2011

Bosely’s Red Flag

Here’s a reason to keep an eye on the Rangers offense:

Remarked new Rangers hitting coach Thad Bosley on Wednesday: “I’m not a believer in working a pitcher to take a walk. I believe you’ve got to know the pitcher, and get a pitch you can drive. If you get an 0-0 pitch you can drive, you’ve got to jump on it. […] I’ve talked to Josh Hamilton about [his approach]. There were times when he was just pushing the ball to left field, when he could have been driving it out of the park. We believe that none of our hitters up to this point have had a career year. We see tremendous upside. We know what Josh Hamilton can do.”

Joey Matschulat at BBTIA correctly notes this may be spring training hot air. It’s not that he doesn’t want the team to walk, Thad likely wants the team to be aggressive on the right pitch. The great hitters seem to have the philosophy that they get one good pitch during a plate appearance, and it’s their job to jump on it. The difference between the great and not so great hitters is that the better ones lay off the other pitches. That leads to walks. As long as Thad doesn’t have them swinging at pitches outside the zone, it’s a perfectly good hitting philosophy.

February 25, 2011

Calibrating PITCHf/X

At the Hardball Times, Max Marchi looks at games and stadium where PITCHf/x was off:

Nothing new here. We have been warned many times about the occasional miscalibrations of PITCHf/x. Thus, once again, think about it before using unadjusted data to point to an umpire’s ineptitude, or before coming to conclusions about allegedly modified pitching approaches.

Sportvision has been doing a terrific work in the past few years in tracking every major league pitch and we are really fortunate that it (and MLBAM) let us put our hands on that wealth of data. Thus, pointing at miscalibrations is not meant as criticizing their amazing work, but rather as a way to give something back.

Very nice work.

February 25, 2011

Magnum, P.I.

Theo Epstein says the Red Sox did not hire a private investigator to follow Carl Crawford:

“We simply had our scouts do a thorough job on his background and makeup, the way we do for all players of interest. I used a poor choice of words during a radio interview, which I regret, and unfortunately that made a story out of a non-story.

“We told Carl in Houston in November that we had gotten to know him pretty well, and that the more we discovered, the more we liked and respected him. We talked about it again yesterday, and I can assure you that he has no problem whatsoever with the Red Sox or with our approach during free agency.’’

Besides, Magnum would only work for the Tigers. 🙂

February 25, 2011

Forcing McCourt Out

Bud Selig rejected a clever financing deal between the Dodgers and Fox.

What really grabs my attention is Bud Selig’s role here. Neither he nor Jamie McCourt would allow Frank to simply sell a 20-25% stake in the team to raise this kind of cash, and now the commissioner has prevented Frank from engaging in an interesting financing arrangement which would have had the potential to devalue the Dodgers if and when the club reaches the market. By putting the kibosh on this innovative TV-rights-as-collateral deal, Selig sure looks to be showing his hand: for a number of reasons, he’d have trouble simply forcing Frank McCourt out of baseball. But he can sure as heck make it uncomfortable for him to stay around.

Maybe Bud should just say to Frank, “Sell the team, you’re not welcome in the club anymore.”

February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011

Xoom Post

This is a test of blogging from a Xoom.

Update: I went to Costco to see about buying a Xoom. The price is very good, however, it was tough to type (I’m sure I’d get used to it) but the All Categories section of my WordPress Dashboard did not show. The most used categories did, but the All Cats was blank. However, even without seeing, my touch picked one, which I just changed to something appropriate.

The pad was fast, and the display looked very good, but the categories are important to me, so I didn’t buy it.

February 24, 2011

Five-Year PMR, Third Basemen

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with third baseman. Here is the data for the teams at third over the five year span:

Team third baseman PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
DET 16601 2278 1985.8 0.137 0.120 114.7
BOS 15756 2127 1963.4 0.135 0.125 108.3
BAL 16429 2070 1965.7 0.126 0.120 105.3
SEA 17219 2155 2056.5 0.125 0.119 104.8
WAS 16758 2079 1994.8 0.124 0.119 104.2
ANA 15651 1882 1827.8 0.120 0.117 103.0
TBA 15762 1991 1934.9 0.126 0.123 102.9
OAK 16234 2040 1985.6 0.126 0.122 102.7
SLN 17200 2120 2066.4 0.123 0.120 102.6
PIT 16839 2200 2153.5 0.131 0.128 102.2
LAN 16161 2005 1986.0 0.124 0.123 101.0
MIL 16036 1954 1936.2 0.122 0.121 100.9
SFN 15375 1926 1911.8 0.125 0.124 100.7
KCA 16406 1892 1878.3 0.115 0.114 100.7
PHI 16533 2100 2104.9 0.127 0.127 99.8
CIN 16375 1895 1900.1 0.116 0.116 99.7
CHN 15218 1844 1866.0 0.121 0.123 98.8
ATL 16062 1875 1899.5 0.117 0.118 98.7
MIN 15919 1984 2020.2 0.125 0.127 98.2
NYA 15941 1859 1893.5 0.117 0.119 98.2
NYN 15839 1936 1990.1 0.122 0.126 97.3
COL 16985 1885 1953.7 0.111 0.115 96.5
HOU 15943 1922 1997.4 0.121 0.125 96.2
CLE 16767 2048 2131.1 0.122 0.127 96.1
TOR 16319 1977 2060.7 0.121 0.126 95.9
CHA 17128 2136 2248.1 0.125 0.131 95.0
SDN 16032 1846 1960.5 0.115 0.122 94.2
ARI 16245 1851 1966.5 0.114 0.121 94.1
TEX 16725 1831 1966.0 0.109 0.118 93.1
FLO 16004 1811 1955.9 0.113 0.122 92.6

If a team used Adrian Beltre over the the last five seasons, they were pretty good at third base. Detroit leads the pack, thanks to Brandon Inge:

Individual third basemen PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Brandon Inge 12901 1772 1534.5 0.137 0.119 115.5
Evan Longoria 7774 1054 943.6 0.136 0.121 111.7
Scott Rolen 12222 1579 1461.0 0.129 0.120 108.1
Eric Chavez 4895 639 597.5 0.131 0.122 106.9
Melvin Mora 11353 1459 1369.8 0.129 0.121 106.5
Mike Lowell 9823 1298 1221.1 0.132 0.124 106.3
Nick Punto 4365 598 562.4 0.137 0.129 106.3
Jack Hannahan 4222 543 512.6 0.129 0.121 105.9
Adrian Beltre 14499 1840 1745.0 0.127 0.120 105.4
Chone Figgins 7441 905 859.0 0.122 0.115 105.3
Ryan Zimmerman 14647 1817 1745.1 0.124 0.119 104.1
Ian Stewart 5311 639 614.6 0.120 0.116 104.0
Pedro Feliz 12884 1672 1606.9 0.130 0.125 104.0
Andy LaRoche 5619 732 704.9 0.130 0.125 103.8
Alex Gordon 6409 753 726.3 0.117 0.113 103.7
Jhonny Peralta 4124 528 513.9 0.128 0.125 102.7
Joe Crede 7505 1032 1009.2 0.138 0.134 102.3
Mark Teahen 5416 646 640.9 0.119 0.118 100.8
Chipper Jones 10575 1243 1245.2 0.118 0.118 99.8
Alex Rodriguez 12766 1476 1508.3 0.116 0.118 97.9
Ty Wigginton 4642 546 557.9 0.118 0.120 97.9
Casey Blake 10279 1257 1289.0 0.122 0.125 97.5
Jose Bautista 6348 802 825.7 0.126 0.130 97.1
David Wright 14931 1808 1871.4 0.121 0.125 96.6
Aramis Ramirez 11546 1351 1405.1 0.117 0.122 96.2
Edwin Encarnacion 11086 1264 1318.5 0.114 0.119 95.9
Chad Tracy 4557 522 547.6 0.115 0.120 95.3
Pablo Sandoval 4718 559 591.1 0.118 0.125 94.6
Kevin Kouzmanoff 11031 1268 1346.5 0.115 0.122 94.2
Mark Reynolds 9924 1130 1205.9 0.114 0.122 93.7
Troy Glaus 8065 923 989.4 0.114 0.123 93.3
Garrett Atkins 9743 1045 1120.7 0.107 0.115 93.2
Hank Blalock 4054 457 490.9 0.113 0.121 93.1
Casey McGehee 4211 467 508.5 0.111 0.121 91.8
Miguel Cabrera 6241 715 789.2 0.115 0.126 90.6
Michael Young 5549 597 663.5 0.108 0.120 90.0
Jorge Cantu 4607 485 562.2 0.105 0.122 86.3

Of all the positions run so far, this one matches my expectations the best. The only person near the top of the list that strikes me as not belonging is Melvin Mora, and indeed FanGraphs ranks him low in terms of range runs.

You can also see how much Adrian Beltre will help the Rangers defensively. For every 100 outs Young would field, Beltre should pick up 116 to 117. Over 200 Young outs, Beltre will turn over a full game’s worth.

February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011

Wainwright Gone

It’s official, Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2011 season.

The silver lining for the Cardinals is that they should trot out a pretty good offensive team for 2011. The Lineup Analysis Tool, using Marcel projections, rates this projected lineup at 4.8 runs per game. Since Wainwright allowed about 2.8 runs per nine innings over the last two years, we’d expect the Cardinals to win 25 of his 34 starts in 2011, a .746 winnings percentage. If they replace him with pitchers who average four runs per game, they should produce a .590 winning percentage, or about 20 wins.

So can the Cardinals offense squeeze out 50 more runs to make up for Wainwright’s loss. Albert Pujols will be motivated to have a career year with his contract up. David Freese and Colby Rasmus are at ages where we could see improvements. So there is upside potential in the lineup.

All is not lost for the Cardinals. As Rob Neyer pointed out, the Cardinals played like a 90 win team last year, so the loss of Wainwright puts them even at 85 wins. An 85 win team, with a little luck, can win 90 games and make the playoffs. A little more offense, and Dave Duncan working miracles with the pitching staff might just do the trick.

February 24, 2011

Let Jeffress Smoke!

Rob Neyer notes that Jeremy Jeffress has a huge incentive to get out of the minor leagues. If he tests positive for marijuana again, he’ll be banned for life.

This is sort of a Catch-22. Pot smokers supposedly aren’t highly motivated, but if Jeffress isn’t highly motivated to pitch in the major leagues he might wind up back in the minor leagues where he can’t smoke pot.

I hope we get to see him pitch against Tim Lincecum some day.

February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011 February 24, 2011

Soriano’s Grief

Alfonso Soriano talks about his mother, who died suddenly from a heart attack last month:

Andrea Soriano wasn’t just mother and father to Alfonso and his siblings after the parents split when he was very young — she was also a baseball fan.

If not for her influence, he might have become an engineer instead of a $136 million ballplayer.

‘‘She supported me all the time,’’ he said. ‘‘I remember when I was a little kid, I wanted to move to my father’s house, and I went for two days and then went back to my mom’s house.’’

His father, who lived in the city — San Pedro de Macoris — didn’t let him play baseball after school and saw more opportunity in studying, even at an elementary-school level, and putting his efforts toward a white-collar profession.

‘‘My pop, he wanted me to be an engineer because he used to be an engineer,’’ Soriano said. ‘‘And I told him, ‘No, I want to play baseball.’ And I went back to my mom. My mom gave me the green light to do whatever I wanted in baseball. She’d say, ‘Go to school first, in the morning, and in the afternoon you can go to the field and work on baseball.’?’’

In most cases, his father would be right. This time, mom was, and her son became a great player and a very rich man.

February 24, 2011 February 23, 2011