The game between the Tigers and the Yankees was rained out. This ruins the Yankees plans to use three starters in the series.
Update: The game was not postponed. Post-season games are now suspended. They will continue play of this game tomorrow night.
Update: Sunday was supposed to be an off-day, but the teams will play game two at 3:07 PM EDT.
They put the tarp on the field at Yankee Stadium as the game went to the bottom of the second. We’ll see how long this lasts and if Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia can come back.
I just figured out that I should root for a Rays/Tigers ALCS. That would give a very good chance of a Price-Fister matchup. 🙂
I didn’t see it as a thunderstorm took out my DirecTV, but Delmon Young homered off CC Sabathia to give Detroit a 1-0 lead in the top of the first. Young hit four home runs in 84 games with Minnesota, then joined the Tigers and hit eight in 40 games.
Update: Verlander strikes out Derek Jeter leading off the bottom of the first, but it’s on a wild pitch and Jeter goes to first. He comes around and scores from third on an Alex Rodriguez grounder to tie the game at one. Verlander gives up a run on a walk but no hits.
Update: Verlander issues a second walk and the Yankees have runners on first and third with two out.
Update: Nick Swisher grounds out to end the inning. Verlander gives up a run without allowing a hit.
Everything goes right for the Rays in the first game of their ALDS against Texas. Raw rookie Matt Moore pitches seven shutout innings, allowing two hits. Kelly Shoppach hits two long home runs and drives in five. Johnny Damon hit a rare left-handed home run off C.J. Wilson. All that added up to a 9-0 Rays victory.
These teams now played six straight ALDS games against each other, and the road team won each one.
This sets Tampa Bay up for a potential sweep, as they Rays #1 and #2 starters, James Shields and David Price, get to face the Rangers #2 and #3 starters, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis.
The Rays play the Nationals next season, and I’m looking forward to Moore matching up against Stephen Strasburg.
The Rays score once again in the ninth inning and lead Texas 9-0. If this score holds up, Texas might as well as stayed home.
Matt Moore just completed seven innings against the Rangers, giving up two hits and two walks, striking out six. He did not allow a run as the Rays lead 8-0. Moore threw 98 pitches as he worked efficiently. If this is what he’s doing with a few major league innings under his belt, imagine what he’ll do with a little maturity.
Update: Moore is officially out as Brandon Gomes comes in to pitch the bottom of the eighth, the Rays still leading Texas 8-0.
Henry suffered a minor injury in a fall on his 164-foot yacht the Iroquois, a first-responder tells the Herald tonight. Henry was put on a stretcher at about 5:50 p.m. and taken away by ambulance. The yacht, said to cost $32 million, is in the wharf behind the Boston Harbor Hotel.
“He walked down the gangplank and he pretty much walked on his own and he was then taken off on a stretcher,” said Steven Olanoff, a witness and member of the Boston Harbor Sailing Club. He added Henry was wearing a neck brace at the time.
So the team, the manager and the owner all fell in September.
Kelly Shoppach hits his second home run of the game in the top of the fifth, and it’s another tape-measure shot. This one goes to the back of the bleachers in left-center, high and arching. An Adrian Beltre throwing error caused the two runs to be unearned, but the Rays still lead 8-0 halfway through the game.
Shoppach slugged .339 during the regular season and .417 for his career. He did hit seven of his 11 home runs on the road this season.
The Atlanta Braves fired hitting coach Larry Parrish:
The timing of the announcement was a surprise, coming one day after manager Fredi Gonzalez said his entire staff would return in 2012.
It looks like the rest of the staff will stay, which is pretty good considering the only worse September crash was by the Red Sox this season.
Brian McPherson does a nice job of explaining the Red Sox clubhouse culture and how Terry Francona’s confidence in his players to police themselves backfired this season.
I thought it was interesting that Adrian Gonzalez didn’t like all the Sunday night games, forcing late-night travel. Of course, having played on the west coast so many years, a Sunday night game didn’t matter that much, as it was late afternoon there. Since he played for the Padres, he didn’t get much of a chance to play on Sunday night, anyway. Someone should point out to him that with great salaries comes great responsibility.
Tony Reagins resigned as the general manager of the Angels:
A day after saying the Angels would have to be creative this off-season to address their roster deficiencies, General Manager Tony Reagins abruptly resigned Friday.
He will remain with the ballclub as a special assistant to club chairman Dennis Kuhl.
“In moving forward, we felt a change was needed,” said owner Arte Moreno, whose team has missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2000-2001.
This should have happened when he made the Vernon Wells deal. I acutally thought the Angels did well to stay in the race as long as they did, but with Wells performing poorly and not opting out of his contract, the Angels are stuck with the money pit for a few more years.
Hat tip, 6-4-2, who has more.
At Baseball Analytics, I look at Johnny Damon’s ability to hit for power against left-handed pitchers in 2011.
Kelly Shoppach blasts a three-run homer to straight-away center field in the top of the third, and the Rays take a 6-0 lead. Wilson allowed six hits so far, two of them homers. So far, the Rays momentum is carrying over into the post season.
The Red Sox did wind up releasing Terry Francona. From the ownership:
“We met with Terry Francona, Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington Friday morning to discuss the 2011 season, ways to improve the club in the future, and Tito’s status. During the meeting, Tito, Theo and Ben agreed that the Red Sox would benefit from an improved clubhouse culture and higher standards in several areas. Tito said that after eight years here he was frustrated by his difficulty making an impact with the players, that a different voice was needed, and that it was time for him to move on. After taking time to reflect on Tito’s sentiments, we agreed that it was best for the Red Sox not to exercise the option years on his contract.
We have enormous respect, admiration and appreciation for Tito and the job that he did for eight years, including two World Series Championship seasons and five playoff appearances. His poise during the 2004 post-season was a key factor in the greatest comeback in baseball history, and his place in Red Sox history will never be forgotten. We wish him only the best going forward.”
So Terry lost the clubhouse, and that was the end of his stint. Some other team will wind up with a very good manager. Theo Epstein and Francona also issued statements, and no bridges were burned.
Terry Francona led the reverse of the curse, and for that, he’ll always be remembered fondly in Boston.
Johnny Damon gets the first hit for the Rays in the bottom of the second inning, a two-run homer to put Tampa Bay on top of Texas 2-0. That’s his 10th post-season home run.
Update: Matt Joyce drives in Kelly Shopach with two out, and the Rays go up 3-0.
Update: That’s it for the Rays but they take some pressure off their rookie pitcher with a decent lead.
Matt Kemp wins the IBWAA NL Most Valuable Player award:
Los Angeles – The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) announced the first of its 14 annual awards Friday, naming Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp its 2011 National League Most Valuable Player.
Voting results are as follows:
1st Place: Matt Kemp, LAD
2nd Place: Ryan Braun, Mil
3rd Place: Prince Fielder, Mil
4th Place: Albert Pujols, Stl
5th Place: Justin Upton, Ariz
6th Place: Joey Votto, Cin
7th Place: Jose Reyes, NYM
8th Place: Roy Halladay, Phil
9th Place: Troy Tulowitzki, Col
10th Place: Hunter Pence, PhilLos Angeles Times’ baseball writer and IBWAA member, Kevin Baxter, explains his Kemp vote this way: “Consider 2011 a coming-out party for the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, who fully displayed his enormous abilities. No player in the National League had a more complete season than Kemp, who led the league in runs, homers and RBIs, had the third-highest batting average and also stole 40 bases. And he did it all in the middle of a lineup that offered him little protection. Oh, and he also led NL centerfielders with 11 assists.”
Los Angeles Daily News’ columnist and founding IBWAA member, Tom Hoffarth, adds the following: “If Braun has an edge in being valuable to a team winning a division title, Kemp was able to have the season he did for a team blanketed in off-the-field distractions without someone like Prince Fielder having his back in the lineup all season. You hate to be accused of having a local bias, but in this case, L.A. is not only where Kemp played, but where Braun grew up. You could find yourself rooting for both to have phenomenal years, which they did. It could have been easy to name them co-MVPs. But that would be the easy way out. This makes more sense.”
Gary Warner, Orange County Register Travel Editor and founding IBWAA member, sums up his feelings here: “There are just some seasons that demand recognition, despite – or maybe because – of the performance of the team. Kemp went into the last two weeks as the first legitimate triple crown threat in decades. He put up those numbers in a lineup with far less protection than Braun and Fielder.”
An announcement regarding the American League MVP is next on the docket, Monday, October 3, 2011. Cy Young results to come shortly afterwards, with Rookie, Manager, Comeback, Executive and Relievers of the Year to follow.
The Rays and Rangers start the ALDS as Sean Rodriguez takes a strike from C.J. Wilson. He hits the second pitch to third for a ground out.
Update: A strikeout and a fly out ends the inning 1-2-3. Matt Moore now gets his chance.
Don Orsillo is calling the game for TBS. At least someone from the Red Sox made the post-season. 🙂
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Milwaukee Brewers as the first NLDS series gets underway Saturday afternoon. The Dbacks finished the season 94-68, first in the NL West and third in the league. The Brewers came in at 96-66, first in the NL Central and second best in the league. I’m looking forward to this series, since the teams seem very evenly matched.
Offense
| 2011 (NL Rank) | Arizona | Milwaukee |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.51 (4th) | 4.45 (5th) |
| Batting Average | .250 (10th) | .261 (3rd) |
| On-Base Pct. | .322 (7th-T) | .325 (5th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .413 (3rd) | .425 (1st-T) |
| Home runs | 172 (4th) | 185 (1st) |
Looking at the underlying numbers, I’m surprised that the Diamondbacks and Brewers are as close as they are in runs scored per game. Although Milwaukee hit the most home runs and produced the highest slugging percentage, their runs scored rank is in line with their fifth place finish in OBP. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, rank with their high slugging percentage, not with their low OBP. One reason for this might be their performance with men on base. The Brewers slugging percentage dropped with runners on this season, while the Diamondbacks did their best slugging with men on base. Extra-base hits do the most damage with ducks on the pond, so Arizona did a better job of realizing their run potential than did the Brewers.
The Brewers concentrated most of their power in three slots. Leadoff, third and cleanup accounted for 104 of their home runs. There wasn’t much power generated from the 5th slot down, so the fourth slot, mostly Prince Fielder, received 32 intentional walks. Leadoff hitters, due to always batting once with no one on, and coming up behind batters with poor OBPs, also waste power with no one on. That’s why Milwaukee’s runs scored seems low to me. Power was more evenly distributed through the Arizona lineup. There was no great incentive to take the bat out of any particular hitter’s hands. If the Diamondacks came up with better table setters, they would rank ahead of the Brewers int runs scored.
The Brewers concentrate a lot of offense at the top of their order. If opponents can limit the damage there, the rest of the order is smooth sailing.
Pitching and Defense
| 2011 (NL Rank) | Arizona | Milwaukee |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average | 3.80 (9th) | 3.64 (7th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 6.6 (14th) | 7.8 (5th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.8 (3rd-T) | 2.7 (2nd) |
| HR per 200 IP | 22.0 (12th) | 20.4 (9th-T) |
| UZR per 150 | 6.5 (1st) | 0.9 (6th) |
| RA per Game | 4.09 (8th) | 3.94 (6th) |
All four NL playoff teams do a great job limiting walks, as they are the four teams ranked the best in that category. The Brewers own the edge in pitching mostly due to their ability to strike out opponents. Both teams allow home runs, but part of that is the nature of their ballparks.
Note that the Diamondbacks compensate for the lower strikeout rate by playing better defense. The Brewers bullpen blows batters away, so if the games are close, Milwaukee relievers are more likely to shut down the opposition. As on offense, the Brewers have a slight edge on this side of the ball as well.
The Series
This NLDS should produce three good pitching matchups, and I suspect most of the scoring will come on home runs. The Diamondbacks won the season series four games to three, and this series could easily go five games. I give the Brewers a slight edge, with a 52% chance of advancing to the NLCS.
Theo Epstein issued a statement:
“John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino, Ben Cherington and I met with Terry Francona this morning at Fenway Park to exchange thoughts and information on the 2011 season and discuss areas for improvement going forward. We all plan on taking some time to process the thoughts expressed in the meeting. There are no immediate plans for an announcement.”
I would not be at all surprised if Theo is the voice of reason here. Given that he was willing to quit once before, Theo may even issue a, “If he goes, I go,” threat. There are plenty of ball clubs that would jump at the chance to hiring both managers.
Don Baylor went to the hospital after a fainting spell:
Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers said Baylor had a “fainting episode” after eating breakfast in the clubhouse, and one of the team’s trainers caught him as he fell. Towers said Baylor was taken by ambulance to a hospital, accompanied by members of the team’s medical staff.
“Anytime somebody faints, loses consciousness for a while, it’s scary,” Towers said. “He’s a big part of this ballclub, means a lot to these players. And hopefully everything turns out well and he’s in uniform tomorrow, hopefully helping us win a ballgame against a very good Brewers club.”
Towers said the 62-year-old Baylor was undergoing tests and the initial results were encouraging.
I’m glad he seems to be okay. I’m impressed that a trainer was able to catch him, Baylor is a big man.
I had a brush with greatness with Don Baylor’s car once. I got to Fenway early for a game, and was able to park in the McDonald’s lot, which was a couple of blocks away. Parking was cheap there, and the money went to the Ronald McDonald House. I was the second car in the lot, and at the time I was driving a Volkswagen Beetle. The attendant told me to park, next to my cousin, a Porsche. He also told me that was Don Baylor’s car, and I should look at the glove compartment. Sure enough, on the cover of the glove box was a plaque indicating Baylor received the car as part of his winning the MVP.
David McNeely writes:
I think the Braves should send something nice to the Red Sox as a thank you gift for making no one notice their collapse. How about Tim Hudson?
I hear they might want to trade Jason Heyward. Maybe the Red Sox can get him for Carl Crawford. 🙂
Peter Abraham is at Fenway Park, waiting for the announcement on Terry Francona‘s fate. I believe white smoke rising from the of the Budweiser Right Field Roof Deck grill will signal a new manager.
Update: No smoke yet:
Terry Francona, John Henry and Tom Werner all just left Fenway Park in separate vehicles.
That’s just like the Red Sox, 25 separate cabs.
The 2011 MLB Playoffs get underway with the Rays sending rookie Matt Moore against the Rangers and C.J. Wilson. Moore pitched a mere 9 1/3 innings at the major league level, but showed great power and control, striking out 15 and walking just three. In five innings against a bench player laden Yankees lineup in his only MLB start, he struck out 11. Wilson improved on his 2010 season, his first as a full-time starter, by posting a 2.94 ERA. He pitched more innings, walking fewer batters, but his hit total increased. Overall, though, fewer batters reached base per inning.
Wilson made three starts against the Rays in 2011, posting a 2.08 ERA. He blew Tampa Bay away, striking out 24 of the 78 batters he faced while allowing just 10 hits, although three of those were home runs.
Two of the best pitchers in the league face off tonight at Yankee Stadium as Justin Verlander battles CC Sabathia as the Tigers/Yankees series gets underway. Verlander should win a unanimous Cy Young award, as his 24-5 record was well deserved. He set a high for innings pitched this season at 251, while issuing his lowest walk total since he became a full-time starter. Justin was impressively unhittable, ending the year with a .192 BA allowed. He turned in a number of low-hit games, seven in which in pitched at least seven inning and allowed three hits or less. That was the most in the majors.
Sabathia turned in his second 19-8 season for New York. Since he joined the team he’s 59-23. He might have won the Cy Young award if it hadn’t been for his 6.39 ERA in five starts against Boston. It appeared to take him a while to fully recover from his off-season knee surgery, as his strikeouts shot up after the All-Star break, although so did his home runs allowed.
Detroit also gave CC trouble, as he allowed seven runs in 13 innings against the Tigers. The Yankees also got to Verlander, scoring six runs in 12 innings. This game may not turn out to be a pitching duel.
Enjoy!
Cork Gaines praises Joe Maddon. He pulls this Maddon quote from the Orlando Sentinel:
“Coming into the season I remember saying, ‘the demise of the Rays has been greatly exaggerated,’” Maddon said. “After a 1-8 start I looked like a fool. I understand that but I believed in our guys and I know what we’re capable of…We went on our first road trip and I bought some really good whiskey on that airplane. Everybody got a little cup and I toasted to the best 1-8 team in major league history on that first plane ride.”
I’ll drink to that!
Ken Rosenthal reports that Terry Francona and the Red Sox will part ways:
While Francona’s departure is not certain, it is the likely outcome, in part because he is pressing for a resolution, sources say. He would not be fired; the Red Sox would simply decline their club options on him for 2012 and ’13.
I find this strange. The Red Sox collapse was due to age and injuries, something that has more to do with roster construction than on-field management. Theo Epstein even noted that, “All of us collectively look at it as a failure. I’m the general manager, so I take more responsibility than anybody.” The only thing I thought was odd with Francona this season was the way he seemed to give up on Carl Crawford early. This was the manager who stuck with Dustin Pedroia when he had a terrible first month in the majors, but dropped Crawford to seventh in the order after two games. Whatever funk Carl fell into, Francona didn’t seem to be able to bring him out.
I like Terry Francona. He appears to be an intelligent manager who uses statistics properly. He manages his personnel well, and always seems to have his back. I don’t remember him ever saying a bad word about Manny Ramirez during all the time Manny didn’t hustle, and even when his relationship with the team fell apart. Plus, how many Red Sox managers won two World Series titles? Unless there is really something specific that Francona did or didn’t do this season that caused them to lose, firing Terry doesn’t seem right.
Joe Maddon is taking a risk and starting Matt Moore in game one of the ALDS against Texas. Wow. The rookie gets his first major league start on the big stage, against a team that are not AAA hitters. Moore got his first major league start versus the Yankees and did quite well.
The Rangers struck out 930 times in the 2011 season, the lowest total in the AL. Matt Moore’s strength takes on the Rangers strength head on. This should be fun. Of course, Jeff Niemann will be available if the idea blows up early.
Hat tip, Hardball Talk.
Correction: This would not be Moore’s first MLB start.
The Detroit Tigers take on the New York Yankees starting Friday night in The Bronx. The Yankees finished 97-65, first in the AL East and the American League. The Tigers won the AL Central with a 95-67 record third best in the AL. The Tigers laid waste to the AL Central, going 50-22 in the division, including 16-3 against the division in September.
Offense
| 2011 (AL Rank) | Detroit | New York |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.86 (4th) | 5.35 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .277 (3rd) | .263 (5th) |
| On-Base Pct. | .340 (3rd-T) | .343 (2nd) |
| Slugging Pct. | .434 (4th) | .444 (3rd) |
| Home runs | 169 (7th) | 222 (1st) |
The Yankees are half a run better on offense than the Tigers. While the Tigers perform better at producing hits, the Yankees excel at avoiding outs and hitting the ball out of the park. Detroit concentrates their offense a bit more than the Yankees, with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila doing the bulk of the heavy lifting. Losing Brennan Boesch hurts the Tigers here, as he would give them one more tough out in the lineup. The Yankees have nothing but tough outs. Of the likely starting nine (including Jesus Montero), the only Russell Martin brings an OBP below .340. The seasons posted by Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira are extremely competitive with the Tigers top three. New York simply brings in much more depth. They’ll have batters reaching base, just waiting for the big hit.
And the big hits do come. The Yankees slugged .465 with men on base, and .601 with the bases loaded. In other words, their long hits tended to come when they would do the most damage.
The Yankees steal bases somewhat better as well. The Tigers choose their spots, successful in 49 or 69 attempts, 71%. The Yankees stole almost 100 more bases, successful in 147 of 193 attempts, 76%. New York runs often and runs well.
The Tigers hitters and base runners are good, the Yankees are good and deeper.
Pitching and Defense
| 2011 (AL Rank) | Detroit | New York |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average | 4.04 (7th) | 3.73 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.0 (8th) | 7.5 (1st-T) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (7th-T) | 3.1 (7th-T) |
| HR per 200 IP | 20.7 (5th) | 20.8 (6th) |
| UZR per 150 | 1.1 (7th) | 4.7 (4th) |
| RA per Game | 4.39 (8th) | 4.06 (3rd) |
The Yankees come out ahead on pitching and defense as well, allowing about 0.3 fewer runs per game than the Tigers. As far as the three-true outcomes go, the Yankees beat the Tigers in strikeouts, but are nearly identical in walks and home run allowed rates. The Yankees defense is superior to Detroit’s so New York ranks better in runs allowed per game than they do in ERA, while the Tigers ERA rank is better than their runs allowed rank.
What makes this series hard to call in terms of pitching comes from teams tending to stick with their front line hurlers. In this case, the Tigers are a little better on the starting side, and the Yankees are somewhat better on the relief side. If a starter falters, the Yankees have a pen that can shut the opposition down for five innings. Late in the game, Al Alburquerque and Jose Valverde can blow batters away as well as David Robertson and Mariano Rivera. The latter two show much better control. The Yankees hitters are selective enough to let the Detroit relievers get wild, and hope for a hit with men on base.
I like that the Yankees are going to use CC Sabathia on three days rest in the series if game four is needed. That’s telling me, however, that the Yankees want to end this series in four games. If Sabathia can beat Justin Verlander in game one and Freddy Garcia can defeat Max Scherzer then I can see that happening. If Verlander and Doug Fister can hold down the Yankees offense in the first two games, I would give the Tigers the nod in the Verlander vs. Ivan Nova game five.
The Series
I like the Yankees offense to carry this series. In their seven games head to head, New York batters pretty much hit their 2011 averages, while the Detroit batters saw few walks and their OBP dropped to .313. That should carry the day for the Yankees. The pitching staffs are just two close to favor one over the other, especially with the front line pitching for both teams. I give the Yankees a 52% chance of winning.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers meet for the second consecutive season in the ALDS. The Rangers finished 96-66, first in the AL West and second in the American League. The Rays won the wild card with 91-71 record fourth best in the AL. The Rays ranked third in the AL East from May 24th to Sept. 25th. It took them until extra innings on the last day of the season to win the Wild Card.
Offense
| 2011 (AL Rank) | Tampa Bay | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.36 (8th) | 5.28 (3rd) |
| Batting Average | .244 (12th-T) | .283 (1st) |
| On-Base Pct. | .322 (6th) | .340 (3rd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .402 (8th) | .460 (2nd) |
| Home runs | 172 (6th) | 210 (2nd) |
Texas owns the superior offense. Note that their good OBP is somewhat hit dependent, as they rank first in BA but third in OBP. The supply plenty of power up and down the lineup, and finished the season on a home run tear, especially Adrian Beltre.
The Rays bring a below average offense to the series. The given the various ranks of their categories, it seems the Tampa Bay front office spent their money on walks and home runs. Their OBP ranks much higher than their batting average, indicating they are making up for hits with bases on balls. Their home runs rank higher than their slugging percentage, indicating that their extra base power comes mainly from home runs (although they ranked second in triples). So the Rays try to earn a few free passes, then hit a long ball. That was pretty much the eighth against the Yankees on Wednesday night. Both teams steal well, but the Rangers overall have more offensive weapons.
Pitching and Defense
| 2011 (AL Rank) | Tampa Bay | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average | 3.58 (2nd) | 3.79 (5th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.1 (7th) | 7.4 (4th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (7th-T) | 2.9 (3rd-T) |
| HR per 200 IP | 22.2 (9th) | 23.6 (12th) |
| UZR per 150 | 8.2 (1st) | 4.0 (5th) |
| RA per Game | 3.79 (1st) | 4.18 (5th) |
Update 9:52 PM EDT: Matt Moore will start game one for the Rays. That’s gutsy move but it doesn’t change my probabilities. There’s no way to know how Moore will handle the Rangers. These are not AAA hitters.
The Rays allowed the fewest runs per game in the AL this season despite the second lowest ERA. The staff does not impress that much in the three-true outcomes, ranking middle of the league in each. The Rays keep runs from scoring by catching the ball better than any other AL team. Tampa Bay can pitch to contact, as their defense is more than capable of turning balls in plays into outs. This is a case with the pitchers look good, but the fielders are doing the heavy lifting.
That should help them with the Texas offense. The Rangers high batting average should suffer against the Rays defense, and if that happens, the Rays might be able to match them with homers and walks.
The Rangers pitching staff is more than good enough for the Rangers offense. In terms of walks and strikeouts, they outshine Tampa Bay. They do allow home runs, but part of that is a function of playing in Texas and their defense is quite good also.
The Series
The key for the Rays will be to try to reduce the Rangers’ batting average, bring the OBP of the teams more in line, then hope they can out-homer Texas. That’s pretty much what the Giants did to both Philadelphia and Texas last season.
The wild card in all this is Matt Moore. He pitched 9 1/3 innings at the end of the season, walking three and striking out 15. Spending his minor league season as a starter, Joe Maddon could use him in long relief if one of his starters falters, or as a two-inning set up man, helping to further hide the lack of depth in the bullpen.
The Rangers should have the advantage in game one as C.J. Wilson takes on Jeff Niemann. The Rays get that back in games two and three, however, as Tampa Bay sends James Shields and David Price against Derek Holland and Colby Lewis.
Texas should have the advantage in this series, but the Rays defense has a chance to neutralize some of the Rangers offense. I’d estimate Texas with a 54% chance of winning the series, based on a more diverse offense.
Tom Tango provides a graph of total team salary vs. total team wins over the last ten years. It looks to me that there are three types of organizations. A little less than half the teams lie on the regression line. There are about eight teams that appear to lie on a separate line, teams that exceeded expectations. There is another group of seven or eight teams (depending on how you classify one) that line on a below expectation line. I’ll see if I can get the data from Tom to see which teams are in which groups.