Monthly Archives: November 2013

November 29, 2013 November 29, 2013

Borda Hall

Tom Tango offers an excellent suggestion on how to change the Hall of Fame voting, forcing voters to rank 10 of the candidates. I love Borda counts for deciding among lists of candidates, as they tend to filter out local biases when they exist.

You go into an elect-3 system for the next 4 years: top 3 in points get elected each year.

Every 4 years, you have a committee that decides if the next 4 years is elect-2 or elect-3.

I’m not sure I agree with this part, however, although I do think it would be good in the short term. There are going to be ballots where there are few good candidates, and I doubt a Hall of Famer leaves the game every year. One could use the Borda count with a 70% of the maximum points threshold. Anyone who was a unanimous fourth choice would get in, but I suspect in most years just one or two candidates would get in. In a ballot populated by lower level stars, it’s possible everyone averages out to 50%, and no one is elected. That’s fine with me.

November 28, 2013

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers, and thank you all for supporting this site over the last 11 baseball seasons. May you have a joyous day celebrating with your family and friends, and may all your traffic jams be light.

November 27, 2013 November 26, 2013 November 25, 2013

Work, Not Fame

The Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta to a four-year contract:

The deal is worth slightly more than $52 million, a source confirmed. At that salary, it is the largest contract the club has ever agreed to with a free agent who has not previously been a member of the team.

A formal news conference for Mozeliak to make his first public comments on the move is scheduled for today at Busch Stadium.

“One of the things we looked at when acquiring a shortstop was the amount of acquisition cost,” Mozeliak said before the club announced the deal, referencing the prospects, money, or draft pick that would be required to land a shortstop. “For us, the asking price in the trade market seemed very prohibitive. There are two top shortstop candidates in the (free agent) market, and one of the differences between them is there’s a righthanded hitter and a lefthanded hitter. We’re looking for a fit.”

I find it very interesting that members of the baseball community whose job requires winning are much more forgiving of steroid use than the people whose job is writing.

That said, in light of this deal, I’ve had to reassess my opinion of Peralta as a shortstop. Looking at both FanGraphs and baseball reference, he appears to be a good defensive shortstop. The odd thing about that statement, however, he wasn’t very good in most of his early years. In fact, the Indians moved him to third base because he was a defensive liability at the position.

That changed when he joined the Tigers. In fact, in his three full seasons with Detroit, FanGraphs has him saving more runs with his glove than he generated with his bat. I find that truly amazing. Shortstop, and defense in general, is a young man’s game. I need to do the research, but I suspect getting this much better late in your prime years is rare, especially after being moved off the position. What might account for this:

  • The Tigers are a strong club in terms of using sabermetrics. I suspect they position their fielders extremely well.
  • PEDs help fielding.
  • With Miguel Cabrera at third base, Peralta might cheat toward the hole, so he might make lower probability plays more often. I will note, however, he was doing well before Cabrera moved back to third.
  • A coach figured out what Peralta was doing wrong on defense, and was able to teach him how to work more efficiently at the position.
  • Fielding numbers are subject to high variability. He just happened to have two stretches, one that looked bad and one that looked good.

Peralta just needs to be a two WAR a year player for the contract to make sense. He’s averaged more than that in his career. Discounting for his likely decline and salary inflation, this should be a good deal for St. Louis.

November 24, 2013

The McCann Gambit

The Yankees reportedly are just waiting for a physical to be completed before they sign catcher Brian McCann to a huge deal:

The seven-time All-Star agreed to terms Saturday with the Yankees on a five-year, $85 million contract that includes a sixth-year vesting option that could push the total value of the contract to $100 million, a personal familiar with negotiations said. The deal was pending a physical exam.

The $17 million average salary of the five guaranteed years in McCann’s contract will be the highest for a free-agent catcher. The biggest contract ever for a catcher was Joe Mauer‘s eight-year, $184 million extension ($23 million average) with the Twins three years ago.

I’m very surprised the Yankees made this deal for a number of reasons:

  1. I thought they were trying to control payroll this year so they could get under the cap and have their tax rate reset.
  2. Brian plays 2014 as a 30 year old. Catchers tend to go south early in their careers.
  3. McCann already appears to be in decline, with his games played going down three years in a row, and his OBP below his career average the last two seasons.
  4. The article makes the point that teams will want to use McCann as a part-time DH and first baseman. Unfortunately, the Yankees are full of players who need to be part-time designated hitters.
  5. I wonder if the Yankees see McCann as insurance against a set-back in Mark Teixeira‘s return?

I’d feel better about the deal if it was short term. This seems like New York is flushing money down the toilet, money they could use to keep Robinson Cano.

The baseball fiscal landscape is changing rapidly, however. With other teams spending a lot on players, maybe there will be an adjustment to the tax threshold that helps the Yankees. Maybe they are making so much money that they feel they can go for a playoff spot in 2014 instead of waiting for 2015. Maybe they decided they can’t sign Cano, so they might as well have a star hitter up the middle. This strikes me as a Yankees move from the 1980s, their least successful decade since I started watching baseball in 1969.

November 22, 2013 November 22, 2013

Heaven Freeseing Over

The Cardinals traded David Freese to the Angels:

The third baseman and Cardinals relief pitcher Fernando Salas were acquired by the Angels in exchange for center fielder Peter Bourjos and outfield prospect Randal Grichuk.

Angels third basemen hit poorly in 2013. Freese seems to have lost his power, but he’s not an out machine, and that should help the Angels. Grichuk will play 2014 as a 22 year old, so there’s still lots of upside potential in him. He’s shown good power so far in the minor leagues, but his OBP could use some work.

November 22, 2013

Weiner Passes

Michael Weiner, the man who led the Major League Baseball Players Association in recent years, succumbed to brain cancer:

Rob Manfred, Weiner’s management counterpart as baseball’s executive vice president for labor relations, said at the time that he regarded Mr. Weiner as “tough and smart, but also fair.”

“Over the years, we have found creative ways to bridge our differences,” Mr. Manfred told The New York Times.

When Mr. Weiner called the team labor representatives together to announce he was being treated for a brain tumor, Drew Storen, the Washington Nationals pitcher and player representative, remarked, “He’s a guy who is so sharp, and he’s such a powerful person, but he’s so humble and easy to talk to.”

Barry Meister, a longtime player agent, told ESPN in 2009 that Mr. Weiner was particularly adept at marshaling his facts in salary arbitration hearings without flaunting his intellect or injecting ego into the proceedings.

“Michael is a genius,” Mr. Meister said, “but he’s a regular genius.”

Weiner always seemed much more comfortable with the management structure of MLB than his predecessor, Donald Fehr. That probably has to do with most of the big issues being settled by the time Weiner came into power. That allowed him to build a cooperative, rather than a combative relationship, one that benefits both sides. It is sad that a man good at his job should be taken so early.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

November 21, 2013 November 21, 2013

James on Miller

Bill James posts the third in a four-part series on the expansion era Hall of Fame ballot (subscription required). In this part, Bill discusses the candidacy of Marvin Miller:

But Miller, in his last years, stated quite clearly and many times that he did not wish to be in the Hall of Fame. I first heard him say that maybe fifteen years ago, over lunch, but at the time I took it to be a casual statement. In the end, it wasn’t a casual statement; Marvin was a fierce person, sometimes, and this was a fierce sentiment. He told people quite clearly that if they were asked to accept the honor on his behalf, after he was gone, they were to tell the Hall of Fame not “No”, but “Hell, No.”

To disregard that clearly expressed sentiment, within months of his passing, would be extremely disrespectful, and it absolutely should not be done. It should not even be on the table. Marvin was a great man—but among these 12 candidates, he doesn’t rank in spots one through eleven as a candidate for immediate selection.

I disagree 100% with that last paragraph. Sometimes, events are about us, but not for us. When I talk to someone getting married about wedding plans, I remind them that a wedding is for their parents, not for them. Parents are going to invite people they don’t know, haven’t seen in 20 years, and may not even remember. They are going to want things the bride and groom don’t want. That’s all okay, just part of the deal. Sit back and enjoy the party.

The other time something is about you but not for you is your funeral. My wife and daughter have asked me what I want done when I pass, and my answer is, “I don’t care, I’ll be dead.” In other words, I expect my family to do whatever makes them feel better about my passing. I have no desire to control events from the grave.

Alive, Marvin Miller would have the right to refuse Hall of Fame induction. Gone from this world, his induction is no longer for him, it is for us, his fans. I hope he gets elected.

November 20, 2013

Far a Fielder

The Tigers agreed to trade Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler:

The Rangers and Tigers have agreed on a blockbuster deal to send Prince Fielder to Texas for Ian Kinsler, pending physicals and the approval of at least Fielder, CBSSports.com has learned.

There was no word yet of any other players being involved, so it may just be a one-for-one swap of stars. Fielder’s salary is much larger, and it is believed Texas will get money in the deal but it wasn’t certain how much.

Fielder has a limited no-trade clause that includes the Rangers. He must waive the right to veto the trade, but the early word was that he was likely to do so. He’d go to a better hitter’s park in a state with no income tax should he approve, as expected.

Kinsler always struck me as a bit underrated, posting rWAR of four or better six times in the last seven years. He’s good defensively, but two years older than Prince. The Rangers have obviously decided to go younger with Jurickson Profar in the infield, so they trade a fine veteran for a big bat at first something they lacked in recent years.

Fielder did have a off-year in 2013, taking a 30 point hit in his BA, a 50 point hit in his OBP, and a 70 point hit in slugging compared to 2012. He did have marital problems, so if there is no physical problem, he’s a great candidate for a bounce back season.

This also allows the Tigers either to move Victor Martinez to first, or more likely, move Miguel Cabrera off the hot corner for better defense. I suspect the pitching staff will like the move.

This really strikes me as a trade that will help both teams.

November 20, 2013

Cardinals Moves

The Cardinals signed manager Mike Matheny to a three-year extension. Mike brought the Cardinals to the NLCS in his first season, and to the World Series in his second. That’s the type of succes that should be rewarded.

In addition, Chris Carpenter decided to retire:

The 38-year-old right-hander missed all of this season with a recurring nerve issue in his shoulder.

Carpenter pitched two careers, a mediocre one with the Blue Jays, and an outstanding one with the Cardinals. He found his control in St. Louis, and rode that to a 95-44 record and a 3.07 ERA. The injury issues never really disappeared. He missed a full season between his time with the Blue Jays and Cardinals, then most of 2007 and 2008. He did come back from the second injury enough to lead the majors in starts at ages 35 and 36, and the NL innings at age 36. He was tough in the post season as well, going 10-4 with a 3.00 ERA, 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four World Series starts.

November 20, 2013

Arbitration Theater

Alex Rodriguez performed a hissy fit:

New York Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez stormed out of a grievance hearing on Wednesday over his 211-game suspension by Major League Baseball when the arbitrator refused to order Commissioner Bud Selig to testify.

“This morning, after Bud Selig refused to come in and testify about his rationale for the unprecedented and totally baseless punishment he hit me with, the arbitrator selected by MLB and the players’ association refused to order Selig to come in and face me.

“The absurdity and injustice just became too much. I walked out and will not participate any further in this farce.”

I suspect this behavior will not go down well with the arbitrator.

November 20, 2013

Padres Land Johnson

The Padres signed Josh Johnson:

Free-agent starting pitcher Josh Johnson has reached an agreement on a one-year, guaranteed $8 million contract with the San Diego Padres, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The deal includes an additional $1.25 million in performance bonuses if Johnson makes 26 starts, the source said. Johnson was in San Diego for a physical exam Tuesday and the contract is expected to be announced by the club Wednesday.

Johnson was a good pitcher at one time, but has trouble staying healthy. He only made 30 or more starts twice in his eight year career. After leading the league in ERA in 2010 and getting off to a good start in 2011, Johnson came back from his problems to a high ERA in 2012, and lots of home runs and more injuries in 2013. The best news about his 2013 season was that his strikeout rate back up to his 2010 level.

Sky Dome proved to be a very poor park for Johnson, who allowed 11 home runs there in 49 1/3 innings. During his stint in Miami, Johnson allowed very few homers, and I suspect a return to the National League and PETCO will help him cut down on long balls. There’s a good chance the Padres don’t get their money’s worth out of the contact simply because Johnson doesn’t play, but there’s plenty of upside potential. It’s a risk, but the rewards could be high.

November 19, 2013 November 19, 2013

The Advance of Defense

Bless You Boys likes the coaching hires made by the Tigers since bringing in Brad Ausmus to manage. The most interesting one, however, is Matt Martin, who gets the title of defensive coordinator:

Ausmus saved his most surprising selection for last, when he announced that Matt Martin would be the Tigers new defensive coordinator. Who? What? This isn’t the NFL! A “defensive coordinator” will apparently be responsible for working with advance scouts and creating defensive alignments, including some shifts, that will give the Tiger defense the best positioning to get more outs. That is, to reduce the opponents’ BABIP.

The Nationals made a similar hire to help Matt Williams. The Tigers have some age and immobility at first and third, so positioning Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder correctly could make up for a lack of range. Even a great glove like Jose Iglesias will have his range enhanced by good scouting.

One of my complaints about Moneyball GMs over the years is that they tended to hire non-Moneyball field managers. With Brad Ausmus, Dave Dombrowski seems to have gone all in. Dave is one of the smartest GMs in the game, and his field staff reflects that.

November 18, 2013

Must…. Have…. Former…. Athletics…. Pitcher…. Spock

The San Francisco Giants are about to sign Tim Hudson to a two-year contract:

The San Francisco Giants are working to finalize agreement on a $23 million, two-year contract with free-agent right-hander Tim Hudson.

The 38-year-old Hudson went 8-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 21 starts this season for Atlanta. His season was cut short by a broken right ankle that required surgery. The Braves earlier this month declined to make a qualifying offer to Hudson, who won 49 games during the previous three seasons.

“I’m pumped,” Giants lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt said by text message. “Great signing for us. Competitor and innings eater. Knows how to win!”

I remember Barry Zito knowing how to win before he joined the Giants, and then promptly forgetting.

Tim Hudson has been a fine pitcher in his career. His last four ERA in order are 2.83, 3.22, 3.62, and 3.97. Notice that they are going the wrong way as he ages. His FIPs are a little more interesting at 4.09, 3.39, 3.78, and 3.46. He gets a lot of ground balls, which seems to help his ERA beat his FIP, so the Giants need a good infield defense behind him. In addition, Tim has a surgically repaired ankle, which didn’t work all that well for Derek Jeter last season.

It’s good the deal is just for two years, but I would lean toward the Giants not getting their money’s worth from Hudson.

November 18, 2013

Phillies for Life?

The Phillies signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract. That will keep him with Philadelphia through his age 37 season:

Ruiz will turn 35 in January and is coming off a down year in which he served a 25-game suspension for a failed drug test (amphetamines). He hit .268/.320/.368 with five homers and 37 RBI. In 2012, Ruiz hit .325/.394/.540 with 32 doubles, 16 homers and 68 RBI, making his first All-Star team and garnering some MVP votes.

The Rockies, Red Sox and Blue Jays — among a few others — were connected in rumors to Ruiz earlier this offseason.

I think it’s quite possible that Ruiz will average 2.0 WAR over the length of this deal, which would make it a fine one for the Phillies. Part of his longevity as a catcher comes from his not making the majors until late in his career. The Phillies first called him up at age 27, and he did not play a full season until age 28. On top of that, he was never abused in a season, only playing over 120 games twice, his single season high 132 games.

Given his excellent offense at the position over his career, I wonder if we would be talking about the Hall of Fame if he came up in his early 20s?

November 17, 2013

Curling Debacle

John Shuster and his curling team take an 11-1 lead over Pete Fenson’s squad after four ends as the two teams try to qualify for the Olympics. Fenson could not make a shot, giving up four points in the fourth end despite holding the hammer. Fenson then concedes the match, and Shuster’s team will represent the USA as they try to qualify for the Olympics. Just an amazingly bad game for Pete Fenson, the former Bronze Medalist.

November 17, 2013

Stenson Winner

The Arizona Fall League awarded the annual Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award to Garin Cecchini of the Red Sox.

Cecchini demonstrated his compassion as soon as he entered pro ball. When he signed with Boston for $1.31 million as a fourth-round pick in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft, he immediately donated $20,000 to the Jimmy Fund, which has teamed with the Red Sox since 1953 to fund cancer research.

Cecchini also has given money to churches in Louisiana for mission work in Nicaragua and collected used baseball equipment for orphans there. He is involved in several other charitable endeavors and did some work with underprivileged kids while at high Class A Salem this season.

“It’s not something I like to talk about,” Cecchini said. “You just do it. You try to go out and serve your community.

“It’s awesome to get out because you get in a routine playing professional baseball every day. It’s nice to get in the outside world and it gives you perspective on how blessed you are to play this game.”

Cecchini has been an on-base demon for the Red Sox, so they could be looking at a long-term solution at short and third with Xander Bogaerts and this award winner.

November 16, 2013 November 16, 2013

Busy Eighth End

After two blank ends, Team Shuster and Team Fenson have filled the house in end eight. Shuster still has the advantage in hammers, but Fenton is setting himself up for the needed big end. After five throws by each side, Fenton has shot, and two more stones close to scoring.

Update: Team Fenton fails to set up a guard with their sixth stone.

Update: Shuster makes a nice shot, but Fenson has a chance to set himself up for a steal as he throws the seventh stone of the end.

Update: Fenton makes a perfect shot and is sitting two in the button.

Update: Shuster’s seventh stone puts Fenson in an even better position, with one stone right on the button, and another just off it. He can set up a guard that should give him a decent chance for a steal.

Update: Fenson makes the freeze, and has three in a row, vertical on the button. It will be tough for Shuster to knock off all three.

Update: Shuster makes a great shot to clear two, but Fenson steals the end and gets one for a 4-3 lead. Fenson, however, now will get the hammer in the tenth end.

November 16, 2013

Half a Curl

John Shuster’s and Pete Fenson’s curling teams are tied at three after five ends. Shuster’s squad holds three of the five remaining hammers, so Fenson needs a high scoring end at some point to hang on.

November 16, 2013

Little Mistakes

John Shuster’s curling squad will qualify for a chance to represent the US in the Olympics with a win over Pete Fenson’s team. If Fenson wins, the team’s play a championship game on Sunday. After two ends, Shuster leads 2-1.

I remember Fenson from the 2006 Olympics, and it seems little has changed. His team did well, winning Bronze, but little mistakes seemed to cost him in that tournament. So far today, we’re seeing the same thing, especially on a miscommunication in the second end that set up Shuster’s two points.

The US Men have not qualified for the Olympics yet. The winner of this tournament must compete in an international qualifying tournament for an Olympic berth. The US women have qualified, so whoever wins that contest goes automatically.

November 16, 2013

Ice Time

NBC Sports broadcasts the USA Olympic Curling trials today starting at 3:30 PM EST. It will be the men followed by the women. Needless to say, I’m very excited.

November 16, 2013

College Marathon

My good friend Jim Storer sent this article about a 20 inning, 1-1 tie in a college game, both starters going the distance:

Says Patron, who was a walk-on and junior college transfer from Stockton making his first Division I start: “It was just kind of a freak game.”

Gingrich and Patron, who have lived most of their adult lives about 90 minutes apart in Northern California, estimate that they probably combined for about 700 pitches, counting pregame and in-game warmups.

Gingrich, the Spartans’ ace, gave up 10 hits, walked three and struck out 21. Patron gave up 13 hits, walked one and struck out 12, officially making 197 pitches, according to a teammate charting his effort. Long Beach State scored its only run in the third inning. San Jose State pulled even in the fifth.

The hard-throwing Gingrich, a 10th-round draft pick of the Montreal Expos in 1975, says he was so sore the next day he couldn’t raise his arm to comb his hair.

Neither reported any long-term negative effects from the game.

November 16, 2013

Observing Replay

In a comment to this post, Roger Mills gives his opinion on watching a game with replay rules in effect:

I just returned from watching a weeks worth of Fall League games in Arizona and got to see several games where the replay rules were being tested. For what it’s worth there were 11 challenges in the 4 games with the replay rules in effect, with only 3 of the calls being overturned. The managers seemed to have been instructed to request a replay for anything close (it was a test after all) as most of the challenges were on bang-bang plays at first (or similar type calls).

My $.02: It worked I guess, but if umpires are right 99% of the time do we really want to spend all of this time arguing about that other 1%? Wouldn’t that time and effort have been better spent into finding ways to keep the games moving and not allowing them to drag out forever?

Thanks, Roger. I hope the limited challenges prevent the game from dragging.

November 15, 2013

The Cold WAR

Craig Calcaterra reads a lot into the Miguel Cabrera/Mike Trout MVP vote:

But I think the political overtones of all of this are far more interesting and far more decisive. More than just a preference for certain stats over others, the Trout vs. Cabrera debate has come to serve as a proxy war between baseball’s old guard, represented by established baseball writers with BBWAA credentials and attendant awards votes on the one hand and a newer guard, consisting of baseball fans and, increasingly, writers, whose voice and opinion has come to flourish on the Internet. There is some crossover here, of course. Many Cabrera backers can be found on Twitter and in online message boards and some of baseball writing’s most recognizable and established names such as Ken Rosenthal and Joe Posnanski cast first place votes for Trout this year. But, those exceptions notwithstanding, the contours of this battle are pretty familiar by now.

And it’s clearly about more than baseball. If one, as I do, reads just about everything written on the Trout vs. Cabrera debate, one quickly realizes that baseball has become secondary to the discourse. There’s more written about the very debate itself than these two players’ baseball bonafides, which are usually assumed. There’s talk about the allegedly strident tone of the Trout backers, who are claimed to be dogmatic in their adherence to sabermetrics (never mind that one can and many do make great cases for Trout without a single reference to a stat less than 100 years old). There’s talk about the hidebound and luddite disposition of the Cabrera backers, who are claimed to be stuck in the past and unable to follow basic logic (never mind that the intelligence and baseball acumen of the overwhelming number of Cabrera voters is beyond question).

In my view it’s a debate about a debate. And it’s an argument an altogether different thing than which player is most valuable. It’s about the future of media and baseball coverage. The evidence for this is the tone the debate has taken.

As Craig goes on to point out, the debate heated but not nasty. In that regard, the debate is excellent for the game. Let me point out that like the game, the way the news media covers the sport evolved over time as well. Before widespread radio and television, the newspaper articles were story telling, often heroic narratives. Once everyone could see and or hear the game in real time, coverage had to change. That requires more analysis, less storytelling, since everyone knows the story.

The MVP Award remains a throwback to the heroic narrative. Mike Trout stands as the best player in the game over the last two seasons. His combination of skills simply cannot be matched. Cabrera, however, is an amazing hitter, who led his team to two division titles. Injured most of the last month of the season, he still came through in the clutch as the Tigers limped to the finish line. He put the team on his shoulders, etc., etc.

Sports writers are primarily writers, not analysts. They look for a story line that inspires. The player who overcomes an alcohol problem, turns himself around to win the triple crown, plays hurt and delivers is simply a much better story. It has nothing to do with politics or old guard/new guard. Given an heroic narrative, writers will vote for the hero.