Jose Abreu made a successful major league debut with two hits, a run, an RBI and a double, helping the White Sox to a 5-3 win over the Twins. Alejandro De Aza drove in three runs with two homers, and lead-off man Adam Eaton reached base twice as the White Sox offense worked on opening day. Given their poor run scoring in 2013, fans of the south side have to be very happy with this performance.
Neil Walker homers in the bottom of the tenth for the only run in the game between the Cubs and the Pirates as Pittsburgh takes their season opener. I wonder if Neil ever had a walk off walk? 🙂
Francisco Liriano struck out 10 in six innings of work, and Jeff Samardzija pitched seven scoreless innings in a fine opening day pitching duel.
Bryce Harper walks leading off the second inning, then slides hard into second base to break up a double play. He takes a shin to the head and is spending a lot of time on the ground.
Update: Harper walks off the field under his own power, and the Mets broadcast says he’s out of the game, but the Nats don’t need to make that decision yet. Adam LaRoche follows with a two run homer, so using Harper as the lead-off man for the bottom of the order works.
Update: Harper comes out to play left in the bottom of the second. We’ll see if he can stay in the game.
Victor Martinez homers for the Tigers in the second for the first run in the game against the Royals. Justin Verlander gave up two doubles so far, but no runs, and he has not struck out a batter.
Andrew Brown makes a surprise start for the Mets on opening day, and delivers a three-run homer off Stephen Strasburg in the bottom of the first to put the Mets up 3-0. Brown has not played much over the last three years, but has hit 12 home runs in 284 at bats, so he has some power. Strasburg struck out two in the inning, but a solid single and a bloop hit set up the homer.
I’m somewhat surprised to see Bryce Harper batting fifth for the Nationals. Matt Williams explained Bryce batting there and Wilson Ramos hitting clean-up.
Williams batted Harper fifth frequently during the spring. He believes Harper will be unburdened to hit for power batting fifth and he will be able to steal more bases – if he is on base when the Nos. 3 and 4 hitters are up, he would be less inclined to risk an out.
The drawback is, the Nationals are taking at-bats from one of their best hitters by placing him lower in the order. Their second hitters received 722 plate appearances last season, compared to 671 for fifth hitters. Still, Williams believe Harper fits best at fifth.
“The ability to open his game if we want to open his game a little bit,” Williams said. “It’s interesting to see what Bryce can do. He has the ability to beat the other team in a lot of different ways. He’s hit there a lot this spring. He’s had a lot of opportunities to drive runs in.
“There’s no one reason why. We want him in situations where he can win games for us. That’s a good spot for him. And that will change, too, from time to time.”
This harkens back to the Pirates batting Barry Bonds fifth in his last three years with the team. He won two MVPs and should have won a third. My guess is that if Harper is putting up a high OBP and slugging percentage a couple of months into the season, he’ll move up to third. If does seem that Williams is thinking of him as a lead-off hitter for the bottom of the lineup, and that’s okay. I’d rather see him batting second.
Here’s a great video for opening day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UszH4c_KUr4
I love his description of the first time visiting a ballpark. I had the same reaction.
It’s the greatest day of the year, opening day! The day all teams can dream of a World Championship, when ace meets ace, and spring is in the air! Unless you live in western Massachusetts.
Here are best games of the best day.
The Royals start their season with a chance to break on top of the defending AL Central champions as James Shields takes on Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Shields pitched well against the Tigers in his career in terms of three true outcomes, but he allowed nearly a quarter of his runs in his last start against the Tigers. Verlander pitched 20 strong spring training innings coming off surgery during the winter.
Boston and Baltimore start their fight for the AL East crown with Jon Lester facing Chris Tillman. Lester owns a 2.99 ERA at Camden Yards for his career, with three short shutouts. Tillman upped his K rate for the third year in a row in 2013, and a continued rise should help keep his ERA low.
Also in the AL East, Toronto pits R.A. Dickey against the Rays and David Price in a battle of Cy Young Award winners. Dickey was hurt by the home run ball in 2013, probably due to playing in a division and a home park more homer friendly than when he pitched for the Mets. Price dropped his walk rate in 2013, but a drop in strikeouts nullified that as batters picked up more hits.
In a celebration of the 1993 expansion, the Rockies visit the Marlins, with Jorge de la Rosa facing Jackie Robinson Award winner Jose Fernandez. Anytime a Rockies pitcher posts an ERA under 4.00, he should get Cy Young consideration, but de la Rosa received none for his 16-6 record and 3.49 ERA. He allowed just 0.6 home runs per nine innings, amazing for pitching in that park. Fernandez’s 2.19 ERA, and his great three-true outcomes had him show in the Cy Young race.
The big was coast game sees Felix Hernandez battling Jered Weaver in Anaheim as the Mariners take on the Angels. Mike Trout debuts his huge extension as well. The Angels handle The King pretty well, hanging a 3.92 ERA on him in 35 starts. Felix does have five complete games and a shutout, however. Weaver’s walk rate remained extremely consistent over the last four seasons, finishing at 2.1 or 2.2 per nine innings. That ranks him 19th in the major leagues over that time, min. 400 IP.
Enjoy!
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Happy opening day! I hope you get to secretly enjoy some of the game this afternoon at work. One cool thing this season is that my MLB Extra Innings package on DirecTV now includes watching games on MLB.com! Very cool.
And while opening day brings thoughts of spring, it started snowing here in Western Massachusetts 20 minutes ago, and the ground is covered. It won’t last, but I did not expect snow this morning.
Hyun-jin Ryu makes his second start of the season before most pitchers make their first, and he takes th early lead in everything. With seven scoreless innings on Sunday night, he’s now pitched 12 innings with 12 strikeouts, four walks, and just five hits allowed. If he makes every fifth start from here on out, his extra day pitching could put him in the lead for innings at the end of the season.
Unfortunately, he won’t get the win. After leaving with a 1-0 lead, Brian Wilson gives up a lead-off home run to Seth Smith in the eighth, and the teams are tied at one.
Update: Wilson is having a terrible inning. He walks the next batter, and then fumbles a bunt. The Padres have two on with none out in the bottom of the eighth. There seems to be no fear of the beard here.
Update: Runners wind up on second and third for Chris Denorfia, who singles in two runs to give the Padres a 3-1 lead. Wilson has yet to record an out.
Andrew Cashner gets the Padres off to a good start, striking out the first two Dodgers he faces and retiring the side in order in the first. Baseball that counts is back in the US, and the Padres ace looked strong.
The division previews end with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics down one superstar in Josh Donaldson, and manage to surround him with very good players. That leads to the A’s position player core having the highest WAR value in the division. The only real hole among the position player is Alberto Callaspo, but at least he plays above replacement. His stats rebounded somewhat when he moved to the A’s last season, so there is some upside there.
Don’t be fooled by the low WAR numbers for the pitchers. Sonny Gray and Jesse Chavez didn’t pitch many innings in 2013. They may very well post three WAR each.
This is a very good team, solid throughout. They are deep enough to sustain injuries and still compete for the division title. I like the job Billy Beane did here, even more than when he built the pitching centric teams of the early part of the century.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers revamped their lineup quite a bit, but kept their position players competitive in the division. The injury to Jurickson Profar hurts, as they appear to be going with journeyman Josh Wilson at second. I like the outfield of Shin-Soo Choo, Leonys Martin, and Alex Rios, I love the left side of the infield. Prince Fielder gives them upside, especially if his problems in 2013 stemmed from his family problems, as opposed to an injury.
The pitching is a bit of a mess, with injuries leading to pitchers like Joe Saunders in the rotation. Even Yu Darvish is starting the season on the disabled list. The good news is that as pitchers heal, this rotation will get better.
I expect the Rangers to give the A’s a run for their money.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels are very close to the Athletics and Rangers. All they really need are bounce back years from Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton to a level of four WAR. That of course, is easier said than done. I’d bet more on Albert than Josh, although both posted spring numbers that look more like their old selves. Mike Trout should give them plenty of chances for RBI.
The addition of David Freese and Raul Ibanez do little for the club. It would have been nice if these players had been insurance against further failure by Pujols and Hamilton, but with that much money tied up in big contracts, serviceable position players is all the Angels could likely afford.
Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson give the Angels two excellent starters, and further progress by Garrett Richards would give them three. He cut down his walks in 2013, and now needs to extend himself closer to 200 innings.
With better years by Pujols and Hamilton, the Angels could easily win the division.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners solved one part of the puzzle, putting two superstars on the field. Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano account for nearly half of the 26.9 WAR of the Seattle core. The trick now is to see if some of the complementary players step up in support.
Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, and Taijuan Walker all have the ability to add a couple of WAR to their totals from 2013. That’s all the Mariners really need, three career years from other players, or some rookies to play like veterans. That’s just a little bit of luck.
Houston Astros
I suppose some team has to lose 100 games. The Astros appear to have found a good catcher in Jason Castro, and Scott Feldman gives them a solid starter, but no real ace. Maybe L.J. Hoes and Brett Oberholtzer develop into solid players, but the rebuilding in Houston will continue, and fans should concentrate on the draft to see the hope for the future.
Probability of winning the division
This should be a very tight three-team race, and with some luck, the Mariners will be there too.
The division continues with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Atlanta Braves
I’m a bit surprised at the low core total for the Braves. While they lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy for the season to injuries, Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang combined for similar WARs in 2013. Of course, the plan was to find replacements for Tim Hudson and Mike Minor, who combined for over five WAR in 2013. Replacing two other good pitchers on top of that was a difficult task. Alex Wood offers them some upside, however. His three true outcomes were very good in the minors.
I have a feeling the Braves will miss Brian McCann as well. I know that Evan Gattis is a fan favorite, but he is an out machine. Along with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, Gattis gives the Braves three holes in the starting lineup. There’s not much the Braves can to do address those issues at this point, except hope that Upton and Uggla bounce back.
I believe a division repeat will be difficult for this team. On top of everything else, they were seven games over .500 in one run decisions, and that kind of performance tends to revert to the mean quickly.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals own the highest position player and pitching cores in the division, and yet there is upside with this team. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper combined for 8.4 WAR in 2013, each playing just 3/4 of the season, Harper with a bad knee. Harper is still very young for an every day starter, so if he stays healthy the sky’s the limit. Adam La Roche posted an off year, and Anthony Rendon played just 2/3 of a season.
On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg has yet to put everything together, but even if he, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann all post 3 WARs, the Nats will win. The biggest threat for a down side is the injury to Doug Fister. Ross Detwiler gives them a solid replacement, however, and Tanner Roark should build on an excellent first fifty innings in the majors.
Of course, last season the Nationals were picked by many to win the World Series, and pretty much everything went wrong. All the good luck of 2012 turned bad last season. Maybe this will be the neutral luck season when they do exactly as expected, win the division, and go on to bigger things.
New York Mets
The Mets and Cubs strike me as very similar. The front offices have the reputation of being great builders, making something happen where that others can’t see happening. These two organizations seem to be going nowhere, however.
In the Mets case, that’s not all the front office’s fault. Losing Matt Harvey for the season is a blow most teams could not handle. What I don’t understand is why the team continues to populate the roster with players like Ike Davis, Eric Young, and Chris Young, who have shown over time their lack of talent at the major league level.
Maybe youngsters Jenrry Mejia, Travis d’Arnaud, and Zack Wheeler will all impress us in 2014. But the Mets core is probably 15 WAR away from competing, and all three combining to do that well is not very likely.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies pitching core matches well with the Washington pitching core. Like the Nationals, one of their top starters, Cole Hamels, is suffering an injury with an inconclusive return date. Head to head, we should see some great pitching duels between these two teams.
The position players are a different story. The veteran core of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley can’t carry the team any more. Carlos Ruiz declined in 2013, and Cody Asche doesn’t have minor league numbers that might lead to greatness. The Phillies will need to win a ton of low scoring games to compete this season.
Miami Marlins
The trick for the Marlins would be to surround Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez with decent talent so those two could carry the team into contention. Instead, they added two players who missed all of 2013 with injuries, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee. The team still has holes, but if things do break right, I can seem them finishing ahead of the Mets.
Probability of winning the division
The division is Washington’s to lose.
The second opening day of the year takes place Sunday night in San Diego as the Dodgers take on the Padres with Hyun-jin Ryu visiting Andrew Cashner. With the scheduled games in Australia, the Dodgers had a chance to get Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke an extra start this season. Greinke didn’t want to make the trip (thanks, injury) and Kershaw had some back issues after the series, so Ryu gets the extra start. He pitched an outstanding five innings against the Diamondbacks in the second game of the season, walking one, allowing two hits, and striking out five. That’s a nice way to follow up an impressive rookie year in which he posted a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings, with low walk and home run numbers.
Cashner posted similar numbers in his first full season as a starter. He recorded a 3.09 ERA in 175 innings. Like Ryu, his walk and home run rates stood as his strength. Despite a strike out rate on the low side, Cashner allowed just 151 hits in 175 innings. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, so as long as the defense can gobble up the worm killers, Cashner should have continued success.
Enjoy!
The division continues with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers starting pitching in 2013 was very good. Almost… suspiciously good. 🙂 Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez harkened back to the glory days of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in Atlanta. Three starters pitching like superb aces strikes me as difficult to repeat. With Verlander coming off surgery, I would expect that core pitching WAR of 25.4 won’t be repeated. Even if they fell off seven WAR, however, they would still be the best in the division by a long shot.
The Tigers rearranged their infield, trading for Ian Kinsler and moving Miguel Cabrera into the hole left by Prince Fielder. We may see Cabrera’s value drop a bit this season, for a number of reasons.
Mitigating #2 would be that he can do less defensive damage at first base than at third. If Cabrera does slow down a bit, he’s likely still good enough to make the offense great.
If the pitching stands up, the Tigers win the division easily. If not, we could see an interesting race in the division.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians look like they are taking a step backward in 2013. After resurrecting the career of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians allowed him to leave as a free agent, leaving a bit of a hole in the rotation. They decided that Carlos Santana is no longer their catcher, and installed him at third base, moving Lonnie Chisenhall to designated hitter. I would think they could do better than Lonnie with a little work. Asdrubal Cabrera and John Axford bouncing back from poor years would add a few wins to the team total, but I just don’t see too much upside here.
One advantage for Cleveland (and the Royals, for that matter), is they get to play the Twins and White Sox a lot. Those two teams are very poor, and the wins against them should keep both these squads in the wild card race.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals would be my surprise pick to win the division. Where the 45.3 2013 core WAR for the Tigers I see as a ceiling, the 33.9 core WAR for the Royals looks like a floor. The core of this team are in their primes, and I can imagine Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, and Lorenzo Cain improving. Combine that with Billy Butler bouncing back from a poor power season, and I can see this group increasing their core total by seven wins. If the Tigers fall off by that much, there is now a race in the AL Central.
The Royals built this team to get to this point, and I hope they are willing to make the adjustments needed during the season to them over the top.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins probably aren’t this bad, but there’s not a lot of evidence to the contrary. That said, it looks like Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia will get to play. They received enough playing time in 2013 that I don’t want to adjust their numbers, but their minor league statistics indicate they should be much better than replacement level. I’d love to see Josmil Pinto get most of the starts at catcher, and have the Twins use Kurt Suzuki as a back up and defensive coach to teach Pinto the art of working behind the plate (as Bill Dickey did with Yogi Berra).
The pitching staff looks okay, with Kyle Gibson offering plenty of upside. He’s the kind of low walk pitcher the Twins love, but in the minors he combined that with high strike out rates. He should take some pressure off the defense.
Still, even if everything breaks right for the Twins, they just lack the talent to make a run at the playoffs.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox core WAR is exactly the same as the Cubs. That means a very long summer of baseball in the Windy City.
The White Sox do have upside, as does any core that adds up that poorly. I rated Jose Abreu as a 2.0 WAR, because the White Sox are paying him like a 2.0 WAR player. They hope they got a bargain here, and if so, he’ll add some offense. Combine that with the possibility of Adam Eaton returning to a high OBP, and you have a nice combination at the top of the order for scoring and driving in runs.
On the pitching side, the upside belongs to a bounce back season from John Danks and continued improvement by Jose Quintana. That would give them a very good three front line starters, but with huge holes in the back of the rotation. My guess is the White Sox will perform better than in 2013, but will still fall short of the playoffs.
Probability of winning the division
Royals fans should be excited.
CNN reports on a group of friends on a 25-year dead stadium tour.
Thanks to Jim Storer for the link!
The division continues with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
St. Louis Cardinals
As I looked through the teams in the NL Central, I was surprised by how stood pat over the winter. The Cardinals might have made the most moves, trading David Freese and allowing Carlos Beltran to walk as he became a free agent. They rearranged the infield, moving Matt Carpenter to third base, inserting Kolten Wong as the starting second baseman, and acquiring Peter Bourjos to play center.
The team did stand pat on the pitching side, as both the starting staff and closer had excellent years. St. Louis brought along a number of good, young pitchers over the last couple of seasons, so there’s no reason to move anyone. Adam Wainwright provides the superstar anchor, allowing the others to develop without a lot of pressure. The front office did a nice job of addressing weaknesses and assembling a squad with upside potential. They should, once again, be the class of the division.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Usually the first place teams stands pat and the second place team tries to revamp a bit. The Pirates, however, use a core of players all who all played for Pittsburgh in 2013. That’s fine, as they have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot again, but they probably don’t have much of a chance at a division title. One move they might have made is at first base, where they don’t have much talent. That tends to be a position where good hitters tend to congregate. Maybe as the year progresses the front office will try to shore up that spot.
Andrew McCutchen gives them a superstar anchor, and I’m excited to see what Gerrit Cole can do in a full season. It should be fun again at the confluence of the three rivers.
Cincinnati Reds
The big question for the Reds coming into 2013 involves Billy Hamilton replacing Shin-Soo Choo. Choo and Joey Votto gave the Reds two incredibly talented offensive players in the lineup. Hamilton may not be able to match Choo’s OPB, but he may be able to make up for it a bit with his speed. With Votto’s ability to hit doubles, we may see Hamilton lead the league in scoring from first as well.
Like the Pirates, the Cincinnati uses a core that were all on the Reds in 2013. They did allow some older players to leave to make room for younger ones. Devin Mesoraco takes over the catching duties, while Tony Cingrani takes the Bronson Arroyo role. While not acquisitions per se, along with the Billy Hamilton move, the Reds have potential for upside here.
I suspect the Reds will finish the season close, if not ahead of, the Pirates.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers numbers don’t look that strong, but there is quite a bit of upside among the position players. Keeping Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez on the roster for a full season would help greatly. Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett are early prime players who could improve. Unfortunately, Carlos Gomez posted a season way out of context with his career. It’s not unusual for a player to enjoy a career year at age 27, but given Gomez’s past, I doubt he can repeat it.
On the pitching side, there isn’t really that much upside. The rotation is solid, but not great, and Matt Garza gives them someone who can reliably go out every fifth day. The team will need everything to break right to compete for a wild card this season.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are first team of the 15 examined so far that don’t really seem to have a chance at making the playoffs. I thought the plan for this team was to develop Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Jeff Samardzija into stars, then feed in talent to complement them. Those three are not stars, and the only other talent to come along is Wellington Castillo.
Looking at the Cubs, I don’t see upside, I don’t see downside, just a bad team.
Probability of winning the division
This really should be known as the Stand-Pat division.
The division continues with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox come into the season with the highest core WAR in the division. What makes them stand out, however, is their group of pitchers. Note that none of them come bring a Cy Young type total to the season, but no one brings a poor total either. Jon Lester owns the high at 4.3, while Jake Peavy takes the low at a very respectable 2.4. That total would be outstanding for any fifth starter. They are also in the range where a bad year by one could be balanced by a good year for another.
The offense offers plenty of upside as we’re not yet sure what Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, Jr. will do over a full season. Both posted outstanding OBPs in the minors, and neither has reached his prime. The sky should be the limit for Bogaerts as he goes into his age 21 season. Someone who becomes a regular starter at that age has a good chance of becoming a great players. Improvements by those two could easily account for any fall off from the older veterans on the team.
The Red Sox start the season in a very good position to repeat as division champions.
Tampa Bay Rays
I’m impressed that the Rays score the best position player core in the division. The team tends to be a great pitching and defensive squad with enough offense to support that. Granted, defense helps the WARs of the position players, but Evan Longoria, James Loney, and the annually unappreciated Ben Zobrist give the offense a solid core. Wil Myers, with a 2.4 WAR at age 22, gives the Rays some upside as well.
While the pitching at first glance does not measure up to the Red Sox, it is a young maturing staff with plenty of potential Chris Acher, Alex Cobb, and Matt Moore are all in their early primes, each with at least two strong categories in the three true outcomes. This is a rotation ready to blossom, and if they do the team may very well surpass the Red Sox.
Baltimore Orioles
Can the Orioles compete once again with a patch work of players? No gets more out of duct tape and bailing wire than Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. The come into the season a bit in a hole with Manny Machado starting the season on the disabled list. He, along with Chris Davis, were the two players to post WARs over 6.0. They’ll need something close to that again, as there are some holes in the outfield where the Orioles may just keep their heads above replacement level.
The rotation is solid, but not spectacular. If Ubaldo Jimenez can continue his good pitching from the latter part of the 2014 season, the Orioles will make a very strong bid for the wild card.
New York Yankees
The good news about the Yankees is that there is little downside to this team. Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira all return from poor or injury riddled seasons, seasons out of context for their careers. If Jeter and Teixeira stay healthy, they won’t post 0 WAR, and they may even get up to three or four WAR each. If Sabathia can adjust to his diminished velocity by painting the corners better, he could rebound a couple of WAR. Masahiro Tanaka is a wild card, but if the turns out to be more Yu Darvish than Kei Igawa, he could do much better than the two I wrote in for his WAR. All in all, those four players could provide the Yankees with 10 to 12 WAR above the core value here, and that puts the team right into contention for the AL East title.
Of course, the other scenario is that the Jeter and Teixeira injuries continue to haunt them, Sabathia continues to give up home runs, and Tanaka can’t perform as well in the majors as he does in spring training. Neither of the position players hit well in the spring, but both pitchers were outstanding. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I would not put too much stock into all four of them having very good seasons.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were picked by many to win the division in 2013, but most of their big moves did not work out. Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, and Josh Johnson could not recapture their former superstar status. Jose Bautista played well when healthy, but could not last the entire season. A clean Melky Cabrera posted a negative WAR.
There is still talent on this team. Reyes and Dickey are still here, and big bounce backs would make the Jays a much better team. Bautista might stay injury free and give the team a big power boost over a full season. Ryan Goins could develop into a fine offensive player, Brandon Morrow could return to his former form. That’s a lot that has to go right, however.
Probability of winning the division
Last year, I thought any of the five teams could easily win the AL East. This year seems to come down to the Red Sox and Rays, and the Orioles having an outside chance. We’ll see if the Yankees can surprise again.
The Angels decided to keep Mike Trout around for the long term:
On Friday, the Angels locked up the superstar center fielder through 2020, signing Trout to a six-year contract extension that sources say is worth $144.5 million. The deal, which doesn’t kick in until the start of the 2015 season, buys out three arbitration years and three free-agent years. It includes a full no-trade clause, but no additional option years, making Trout a free agent again at age 29.
The year-by-year breakdown isn’t known yet, but a source said Friday night that the contract will ensure that Trout is the highest-paid player in the game relative to service time at every juncture.
As well he should be. He goes into his age 22 season the best player in the majors over the last two years. That’s amazing for someone still three years from his prime. He will still have a year or two left in his prime when this contract is up, although if he continues his greatness, the Angels will probably extend him further. Congratulations to Mike on a well deserved deal.
We might also see Trout’s deal put a cap on future salaries for young players. It going to be tough for any one doing comparisons to say they deserve more or as much money as this superstar. It’s similar to what happened with A-Rod’s Texas contract.
The division previews start with the NL West, since they have already kicked off the season in Australia, and open the normal season Sunday night. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers come into the season with the highest core WAR in the division. Their position players are competitive with the Diamondbacks and Giants, but the pitching staff outshines all the others in the division. The pitchers are four WAR ahead of the next closest team, the Rockies. If the 41.8 holds up, the Dodgers will be competitive with little help from the rest of the team.
In my view, the upside and downside risks in the core balance decently. I don’t expect Juan Uribe to post a five WAR season again, after a career year at age 33. Yasiel Puig, however, posted a four WAR in a partial season. Even if the league adjusts to him, that four is likely to hold up over a full year, and probably be a bit higher. While Clayton Kershaw could fall back after a string of great seasons, Zack Greinke‘s WAR is a bit low due to his time on the disabled list in 2013 due to a freak injury. If Dee Gordon plays the whole season, he should be better than a zero.
The back of the rotation is old, but there are enough pieces in place for another fine year at Dodgers Stadium. Also looming is the return of Matt Kemp, giving Los Angeles a ton of outfield depth. They will be tough to beat.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks rotation took a big hit with the loss of Patrick Corbin to Tommy John surgery. That alone took three wins out of the core. When competing against an elite team like the Dodgers, every win is important. With Bronson Arroyo having physical issues, he may not be able to eat innings as he’s done throughout his career. Managing the starting rotation will be Kirk Gibson‘t biggest challenge.
The good news is there is little downside in the Diamondbacks core. None of their players posted numbers that are unreasonable given their age and history. Miguel Montero might bounce back, and Didi Gregorius is still young and improving. With good play from the bench, and lucky breaks with the pitching staff, the Diamondbacks should be in the wild card hunt.
San Francisco Giants
In a few short years, the Giants went from a team where the pitching carried a weak offense, to a team with maybe the best offense in the division, but a pitching staff that is somewhat old and worn out. Past superstars Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain failed to crack the two WAR barrier in 2013, and while Tim Hudson is a good pitcher, he is no longer a great pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, at seasonal age 24, will need one of the veterans to step up with a good season to bring the Giants into contention.
On the other hand, the offense is no longer just Buster Posey with a hope of a good year from Pablo Sandoval. The acquisition of Hunter Pence and the emergence of Brandon Belt gives the Giants three legitimate offensive threats. Now if Sandoval posts a great year, the Giants should easily have the best offense in the division. They’ll need it to win the division or gain a wild card.
San Diego Padres
The Padres go into the 2014 season with the weakest core in the division. The team lacks a superstar, a player with a 5+ WAR potential. The closest they come is Chase Headley, who exceeded that level once in his career. Maybe Jedd Gyorko or Yonder Alonso build on their seasons, but otherwise, there is not a lot of potential for upside among the position players.
Upside on the pitching side depends on veterans Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy. Johnson was a great pitcher, but can’t stay healthy. Kennedy may get help from PETCO Park, which should be more friendly to a fly ball pitcher. On top of that, closer is coming off the worst year of his career, in which he served up home runs at a high rate.
Bud Black will be challenged again this season, but if he can get the veteran hurlers back on track, the Padres have a chance of finishing above .500.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies come into the season with a solid pitching staff. Unfortunately, playing in Denver means you need a great offense to support the high number of runs even a good staff allows in Coors Field. At this point, the Rockies don’t look like they have the supporting cast to complement Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.
One player with some offensive upside is Charlie Blackmon, who enters the season at the peak age of 27. He made progress in the majors in 2013 and posted high OBPs in the minors. If he puts it all together over a full season, he could add a couple of wins to the Rockies total and put them in contention for a wild card.
I will note that the starting lineup I’m using does not contain Justin Morneau. He had a terrible spring training, and Michael Cuddyer may start at first base. I don’t think it makes much difference in the outcomes, however.
The pitching staff may have some upside with Brett Anderson, but he has a lot of trouble staying healthy. A two WAR may be a reasonable assumption if he can stay on the mound for the whole season, but the Rockies might be expecting more.
This is a decent team, and I would be surprised if they finish last again.
Probability of winning the division
This is the Dodgers division to lose. I expect their second half surge of 2013 to continue into 2014. The may be 3-0 before most other teams start their season.
Jerry Remy talks about coming back to broadcast games while his son faces murder charges. Remy takes the heat in the article, understanding the adverse reaction from some fans:
Remy was asked if ever considered putting an end to the financial and emotional support that he provided to his son.
“It was not an option, he was our son, he’s our son and we tried to do the best that we possibly could for him,” Remy said. “Unless you go through something like this, like I said, people have different ways of dealing with their own personal families and I was in a position where I felt that we could deal with it in a proper way and get him the proper help … believe me, we tried everything we possibly could and stuff about buying cars and this and that you look back and you say, ‘Maybe we should have did [sic] things differently,’ but the fact is he was a kid that couldn’t hold onto a job. He couldn’t do this, he couldn’t do that, and one thing you’ve got to keep in mind through all this is that we wanted the best for our granddaughter, too. He was living with Jennifer and our granddaughter was there and we didn’t want to see her thrown out on the street and begin her life in a horrible way and now obviously it’s horrible now. But that’s just the way we felt, that’s the type of people we are. Some people can accept that and some people still can’t accept it so looking back I don’t know if I would do things differently, I really don’t. We did the best that we possibly could. We thought we were loving parents and we thought we were trying to do what we could to get this kid on the right track and we failed. We failed. It’s that plain and simple. There’s no better way to describe it than we were not successful in that and if people don’t understand that well there’s nothing I can do to change their mind. That’s their prerogative.”
It’s a tough situation for any parent. I thank the stars everyday that our child doesn’t cause us any problems.
It looks like MLB and the MLBPA is on the verge of increasing the suspensions for use of performance enhancing drugs (PED):
Baseball’s revamped drug policy is expected to increase penalties for first-time offenders from 50 to 80 games and bar second offenders for an entire season – 162 games – rather than 100 games.
For the first time, it also threatens to punish teams:
Major League Baseball’s modified drug policy, which is yet to be finalized, will bar from the postseason any player disciplined for performance-enhancing drug use during the regular season, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.
Craig Calcaterra doesn’t like this provision:
This, I feel, is extreme for two reasons. First, it crosses the line from a penalization of the player to a penalization of the team. Clean players’ chances to advance in the playoffs will potentially be harmed through no fault of their own and front offices, likewise blameless, will be forced to scramble to fill holes despite not having any ineligible players.
Second, this penalty may serve as a defacto order that a player be released or hidden on the DL with fake injuries.
It’s harder than one thinks to disable a player with a fake injury. The league will want medical evidence of an actual problem. More importantly, it forces teams to take some responsibility for the action of their players. I find it really hard to believe that teams don’t know what’s going on when a player like Melky Cabrera starts out-performing his norms. Right now, it’s too easy to turn a blind eye to the drug use, as it benefits the team.
Of course, I think the MLBPA should be the one responsible for drug testing and punishing players, since it’s the clean members of the union who feel hurt the most by their fellow players cheating.
Miguel Cabrera agrees to a ten-year, $300 million contract with the Tigers.
If the new contract is calculated as a single,10-year entity, it will surpass the 10-year, $275 million contract that Alex Rodriguez signed with the New York Yankees in December 2007 as the largest deal in Major League Baseball history.
Cabrera joins Clayton Kershaw as players with a $30 million average salary. I’m actually quite surprised that it took this long for players to reach this level after Alex Rodriguez reached $25 million a year in 2001. Of course, for a long time it was tough to argue that you were a more valuable player than A-Rod.
Congratulations to Cabrera, he certainly earned his money the last two years. Unfortunately for the Tigers, given that Miguel is at the age where decline usually sets in, they probably won’t get their money’s worth.
This looks like a useful app for baseball fans, No-Hitter Alerts. It allows you to set innings into the game, and it will tell you where you can watch. At the moment, it only seems available for iPhones. 🙁
The annual Forbes Business of Baseball report is online. Despite their success, the Rays come in as the least valuable franchise in MLB. At $485 million, they are about 1/5 as valuable as the Yankees, the number one team.
Yu Darvish will miss his opening day start due to back problems:
“I knew I wasn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, so I made this decision,” Darvish said through an interpreter, according to the Dallas Morning News. “I didn’t want to burden the team, so I made the decision now. If it was a shoulder or elbow, it would be really different. I don’t know what to feel. It is what it is.”
Levine said via text message that there is no timetable for Darvish’s return.
“I think we are at the point where we need to start ruling things out,” Levine said Tuesday, according to the Morning News.
That is certainly a blow to the Rangers, especially if the problem lands Darvish on the disabled list for a while. There are a number of question marks in the Rangers rotation, and without Darvish they don’t have a solid anchor. Tanner Scheppers moves into the rotation for the first time, Matt Harrison hardly pitched in 2013, and Joe Saunders just isn’t that good. The offense may need to carry the team for a while.
Michael Pineda makes the Yankees starting rotation:
“He threw extremely well,” Girardi said. “It was what we wanted to see from him. He improved each outing. At times he was dominant. We liked what we saw.”
In four appearances (three starts) this spring, Pineda went 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA. He did not allow an earned run until this past Sunday after throwing 13 scoreless innings, and struck out 16 batters in 15 innings, walking just one.
Of course, 15 innings isn’t much to go on, but I suspect Girardi has a good eye for pitchers, having caught so many good ones. Nice to see this pitcher make it back from a serious injury. The nice thing is that he’s only 25, so the Yankees should be able to capture his prime years.
It always amazes me when someone gets traded for lack of grit instead of lack of talent.
Rockies manager Walt Weiss is nobody’s puppet. This is his baseball team. It will win or lose his way.
And that’s why Dexter Fowler is no longer in Colorado.
Fowler was not the greatest player in the in the game, but he did a great job getting on base for the Rockies, especially in Colorado. He hit 53 triples in five years, the most in the majors, using his speed to take advantage of the bit outfield in his home park. He had plenty of positives. I can see trading someone who is considered a cancer in the clubhouse, but:
Fowler is a good man, with a gentle spirit and an infectious smile. But Fowler was not the kind of player Weiss needs on a team that must grind out victories in the National League West against more free-spending rivals.
I don’t think the Rockies could afford to throw away that much offense because someone isn’t tough enough.
The Chicago White Sox locked up Jose Quintana through his arbitration and early free agent years:
Jose Quintana’s shaky spring didn’t stop the White Sox from signing the left-hander to a five-year contract Monday that could be worth as much as $26.5 million guaranteed.
Two team options could take the deal into the 2020 season and possibly make the total value $48.5 million.
FanGraphs puts the value of his first two seasons at around $25 million, so in a way the White Sox are getting the guaranteed part of the contract for free. If he has one great season, this will be a very good deal.
The Red Sox and David Ortiz reached a deal that could keep him in Boston through 2017:
David Ortiz and the Red Sox agreed to a 2015 contract Sunday with options for the following two years, a move that means the popular slugger will probably finish his career in Boston.
…
The Red Sox announced the deal Sunday night. It includes a club or vesting option for 2016, and a club option for 2017.
So the deal is short term enough that if Ortiz’s game deteriorates, the Red Sox will be able to let him go. The contract is not outrageous:
Ortiz signed an extension that will pay him $16 million in 2015, a $1 million raise from his salary this year, according to a source familiar with the situation.
The problem with extending a player in his late 30s, as the Yankees found out with Derek Jeter, is that a breakdown is highly likely. Ortiz fought his decline by slimming down. Derek Jeter fought his decline by more activity, until his ankle gave way. This is the cost for having a fan favorite on the team. Teams think the cost of having them go elsewhere and do well is too high. This contract, however, is much better than a straight four-year extension.