Monthly Archives: December 2014

December 31, 2014

Know When to Fold Them

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The Dodgers signing of Chin-hui Tsao is causing a bit of controversy. He was banned in Taiwan for conspiring to throw games for gamblers, although he never actually pulled it off.

A few days ago, the Los Angeles Times reported the Dodgers were “close” to signing Tsao to a minor-league deal and suggested the club had received clearance from MLB to do so. Both are true. The Dodgers contacted MLB prior to engaging with Tsao, a baseball source with knowledge of those conversations told Yahoo Sports. The league looked into the circumstances surrounding Tsao’s expulsion, found some “ambiguities” in the case, and cleared the way for the signing, the source said.

Note that faced with the same facts, the Australians decided not to let him play.

My World of Baseball believes Pete Rose should use this signing to seek re-instatement.

I have to admit I’m somewhat surprised by this. Gambling is the one area of cheating where there is little tolerance. I would not be surprised to see if the public reaction to this causes MLB to change their ruling.

December 31, 2014

Youngsters to Watch

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Chris Mitchell at The Hardball Times pens an interesting article on predicting the probability of MLB WAR through age 28 from minor league batting numbers. Read the article for his method, but what struck my eye about the table of players with the best chance of producing high WARs is the number of Cubs on the list. There are four Cubs in the top 13, three of them age 22 and one of them 17-year-old Gleyber Torres. It’s another reason to believe the Cubs are poised to be long-term contender in the National League Central.

Hat tip, BBTF.

December 30, 2014

Angels Behind the Scenes

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Pedro Moura profiles the four young number-crunchers helping the Angels make use of the latest statistics. What surprised me a bit is that Mike Scioscia is on board:

“The floodgates have opened in the last six or seven years,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said last week. “As we’ve organized and analyzed numbers better, it’s helped us, primarily on the defensive front. It’s also helped with some lineup issues or determinations. I think our decisiveness was noticeable last year.”

Indeed it was. At this time last year, the Angels’ baseball operations department sought to revamp the way it communicated with the playing department, halving the size of the reports and simplifying the transmission – all while continuing to delve into more and more complicated data.

“The information needs to be sorted, needs to be filtered, needs to be molded, and given to a player in a way that they understand what might happen on the field,” Scioscia said. “Raw statistics just don’t do that.”

This is very similar to what goes on in Pittsburgh. Scioscia always struck me as an old-school type manager, but if you give him the information in a way that makes sense to him, he is willing to use it.

December 30, 2014

Praising Pedro

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Dave Fleming announces the results of the Bill James Online reader vote for the Hall of Fame. Pedro Martinez received the most votes, and Dave dissects what made Martinez so special:

He was brilliant pitcher, of course: I think I’ll never see a pitcher as brilliant at Pedro was at his peak. But to call him brilliant is to miss half of what made Pedro such a singular player. To me, the remarkable thing about Martinez is that he combined the intensity…that hyper-competitiveness that players like Pete Rose or Frank Robinson or Ty Cobb possessed, with a startling joy. He played with a rare kind of humor: though he always wanted to win, he seemed to know, too, that he was making his living playing a game, and was fortunate to be doing that. That’s a difficult balance to find: combining a fierce will with a sense of perspective that allowed him to enjoy the contests he so frequently won.

December 29, 2014

Adjusting to Framing

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FanGraphs uses Matt Garza to see how a pitcher adjusts to catchers that frame pitches well and frame pitches poorly:

Which means framing is probably even more nuanced than we usually acknowledge. Not only will the same pitches get called differently with two different catchers, but pitchers will further expand the zone as a result of their opinion about the difference between catchers. This isn’t a shocking or surprising belief, but it’s an important one to consider when people debate the relative size of framing effects.

Not only does Lucroy get better calls on the same pitches, but that fact creates more pitches in the areas around the plate in which a pitch can be framed. And those pitches are also usually more difficult to hit, which is another point in favor of the great framers.

We see this in game with umpires as well. (The famous Jordan Zimmermann non-strike in this year’s NLDS is an example.) I really do wonder, however, now that framing has gone from theory to fairly concrete fact if umpires won’t adjust. If framing ability is knowable, then umpires should adjust their expectations when sitting behind various catchers. A catcher good at framing should get the benefit of the doubt less often, and a catcher poor at framing should get the benefit of the doubt more often. After all, it is not how the ball is caught, but where it crosses (or doesn’t cross) the strike zone.

December 29, 2014

Voter Age

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Tom Tango breaks up the known Hall of Fame ballots into types to see how candidates like Tim Raines are improving this season. One of his types is, “Did the ballot include Bonds and/or Clemens?” This got me wondering if age has something to do with voting for Bonds and/or Clemens. Someone who doesn’t have a lot invested in Henry Aaron’s record, for example, might be more willing to vote for an alleged PED user. Unfortunately, sports writers, unlike baseball players, don’t have biographies that are easy to find, unless you’re someone big like Peter Gammons.

If the age distribution was true, then Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens might have a chance as the older voters die off. That’s the reason I believe Jim Rice finally got into the Hall. All the voters who hated dealing with him as a player were overwhelmed by the voters who only knew him through his statistics.

December 28, 2014

Castro Cleared

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Bleacher Nation rounds up the reports on Starlin Castro being cleared in the shooting to which he was connected. It seems whenever anything bad happens in the Dominican Republic and Castro is close, someone tries to get money out of him:

It strikes me as a little unfair to say things like, “this keeps happening”, or “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”, or “he’s got to stop getting involved in things like this.” Whatever incidents you can compile, Castro has been cleared in all of them. And the last shooting, in particular, wound up with the conclusion that Castro and his family were at a large concert where there was a shooting involving persons unknown to them. That was it.

To me, the only fair conclusion you can draw from these incidents is that it seems unsafe for Castro – his health, his wealth, his family, etc. – in his hometown right now. I’m sure it sucks to hear the suggestion that you can no longer live the life you want to live when in your hometown (or to be told that you’re better off not going there at all in the offseason), but it’s possible that’s where this all leads. It seems like anytime anything happens to which he can be attached by local reports (and/or local police?), he’s going to be attached, whether there’s a plausible connection or not.

That, to me, is the closest thing we have to a “this keeps happening.”

That’s fair. I wonder how other successful Dominican players managed to stay away from incidents like this?

December 27, 2014

Castro and Bullets

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Starlin Castro talks to police after being at the scene of a shooting:

Jacobo Mateo Moquete, spokesman for the Dominican National Police, said that Castro was questioned at the prosecutor’s office in Monte Cristi. Moquete said that police believe people close to Castro participated in the shooting. He said police searched Castro’s house and that the investigation is ongoing.

Castro’s agent, Paul Kinzer, told ESPN.com that Castro talked to police voluntarily and that authorities have video showing Castro was not involved, though he “may” have known some of the people involved.

Police are investigating allegations that the shooting occurred after an argument between Castro’s brother and the assistant of a government official.

Earlier this month, Kinzer told CBSChicago.com that Castro had been cleared by officials for any involvement at a shooting at a nightclub in Santo Domingo, after police reportedly sought to question him about that incident.

“It’s just they keep dragging his name into this and he had nothing to do with either incident,” Kinzer said.

He may have nothing to do with it, but it’s probably time to find a new group of friends. Bullets have a way of finding unintended targets. Ask the six people injured in this latest shooting.

December 26, 2014

Secret or Transparent?

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BBTF links to a 6-4-2 post about transparency in the Hall of Fame vote:

It is probably not too strong to suggest that Darren Viola’s Hall of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo — an annual event for a number of years now — has sparked a dialogue about transparency in BBWAA voting that is vastly overdue.

The question the BBWAA faces is should all ballots be public. In politics, ballots tend to be secret when everyone is involved, and the secret ballot is used to prevent retribution from voting a certain way. Public ballots are used when representatives of groups are voting. That way the citizens represented know if their desires are being met. In the latter case, secret ballots are sometimes used to take retribution on public ballots.

So are BBWAA members like the voting public, who should be able to cast a ballot secretly so that they cannot be coerced to change their position or punished fro the one they take, or like representatives who must faith the wrath of their constituents because of their public votes?

While not elected, sports writers do work at the pleasure of the public. A writer who brings in a large number of readers will last longer in the business than one who doesn’t. Since the BBWAA requires a long tenure before one can vote, a member is someone with public approval.

On the other hand, if a writer wants to make a principled stand on the Hall of Fame, why should they be subjected to ridicule for that vote? It a large voting body, and in general one vote here or there does not make a difference. Fans (and writers, it seems) think there is something beyond the 75% threshold for election. Is Greg Maddux less of a Hall of Famer because he wasn’t voted in unanimously? Are Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven lesser Hall of Famers because they weren’t elected on the first ballot. As much as people complain about the level of talent in the Hall, all that matters is that you pass the 75% threshold at some point. The player gets the same ceremony, gets to make the same speech, gets forever to be known as a Hall of Famer. Who really cares if someone is left off the ballot?

The clear answer from years of reading about these controversies and being bothered by them my self is that the fans do see the writers as their representatives. They want to know how their local and national writers think. If someone leaves Greg Maddux off a Hall of Fame ballot, there’s good reason to believe that writer has a screw loose. If you can’t recognize that kind of once in a lifetime talent, why do you have a ballot? If fans want to go after writers over candidates like Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris, more power to them. We’ll wind up with a better group of players in the Hall.

So I come down on the side of Repoz:

Or as I told Rob…“I think the MLB Network should have a 3-hr show of all HOF ballots being opened…with a Sammy Petrillo-type host using a magic wall.”

Go for it. I would add having Brian Kenny and Harold Reynolds take what they consider the most egregious ballots and grill those voters on their choices. That would be great television, and we all might learn something.

December 25, 2014 December 23, 2014

Winning the Strike Zone

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Bill James Online posts a very interesting article (subscription required) on the relationship between teams winning the strike zone and winning in general. The strike zone winning percentage is defines as (Pitcher K * Batter BB)/((Pitcher K * Batter BB) + (Batter K * Pitcher BB)). This correlates well with team winning percentage.

Bill makes the point that teams that show a large mismatch between strike zone winning percentage and team winning percentage tend to persist in that regard. The two things that spring from that are that good managers tend to get their teams to out perform their strike zone winning percentage, and expansion teams under-perform their strike zone winning percentage. On the latter point, talking about the 1962 Astros:

I am not arguing exactly that the Astros disprove the theory of Three True Outcomes, but I am arguing that they point forcefully to the limitations of the theory. The other outcomes “don’t matter” because the other outcomes tend, over time, to even out. But when they don’t work out evenly, the other outcomes matter a great deal—and for that reason, one cannot accurately evaluate players just based on those three outcomes.

I have to disagree with Bill here. Three true outcomes in my mind applies to pitchers, because pitchers face a variety of batters, so overall they come close to facing the league average hitter. Individual batters vary widely on their ability to get a hit on a ball in play. Joey Votto, for example, has a very high BABIP, and also can smash home runs.

My belief is that the disconnect between the expansion team strike zone winning percentage and their team winning percentage is that they are made up of low BABIP hitters. In the NL in 1962, the Astros and the Mets finished 9-10 in BABIP, and skewed the league average so much only one other team finished below average.

Expansion teams are made up of marginal players. The best kind of batters that will be available will be ones with good strike zone judgement, but poor ability to hit the ball hard. So even though they put the ball in play, they don’t get a lot of hits. I don’t see any conflict between this and the three true outcomes.

December 22, 2014 December 22, 2014

Phil’er Up

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Phil Hughes signed a three-year, $42 million extension as the Twins have locked him up for five years. So the Twins see Hughes as a two-WAR player long term, which strikes me as fair. In his good years with the Yankees he was around two WAR. In his bad seasons, however, he was in negative territory.

Both BIS and PITCHf/x pitch classification show Hughes abandoning his slider for a cutter in 2014, and PITCHf/x has him adding a knuckle curve. Given his success with this different mix of pitches, the Twins may get a real bargain with this deal. Note, however, that Hughes was successful in 2012 going in the opposite direction abandoning the cutter in favor of the slider. Maybe he just needs to change his trick pitch every so often.

December 22, 2014 December 20, 2014

PTNML

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It turns out one of the players to be named later in the big Padres-Nationals-Rays deal is going to be a player to be named much later:

As Baseball America writer J.J. Cooper wrote this week, Turner can’t be dealt until mid-June because of a rule instituted in 1986 when Pete Incaviglia held out on the Montreal Expos after they selected him, eventually forcing a trade.

So Trea Turner has to play for the Padres for another six months. Turner’s agent isn’t happy, and Washington general manager Mike Rizzo notes that the Nationals and Padres are going to need to trust each other on this deal. Stay tuned.

December 20, 2014

Wieters Rehab

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Roch Kubatko has the latest on Matt Wieters rehabilitation:

Wieters started a light throwing program immediately after Thanksgiving and has stayed with it, heading outdoors every other day to play catch with physical therapist Lloyd Van Pamelen in Atlanta. The distance started at 45 feet and increased to 60 almost two weeks ago. One or two more sessions and he’ll move back to 90 feet.

“Everything has gone how we thought it would and gone how Richie (Bancells) and Lloyd here told me kind of what to expect,” Wieters said. “It’s always good when things happen as planned. I’ve had a lot of good people helping me out. It’s been a rehab process so far, but at the same time we haven’t had any unexpected things going on, which is always good.”

So everything is on schedule, but Wieters won’t commit to being ready for opening day.

December 19, 2014

Eovaldi of Destruction

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The Yankees acquired Nathan Eovaldi from the Marlins, and sent out the person who was slotted to play second base:

The News has learned the Yankees completed a multi-player deal with the Marlins, acquring hard-throwing righty Nathan Eovaldi and a yet-to-be-named lefty reliever for Martin Prado and righty David Phelps.

Last season, Eovaldi was 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA and 142 Ks in 199.2 innings pitched.

So could the Yankees be planning on making Jose Pirela their second baseman? He will be seasonal age 26 in 2015, so he would be getting a starting job at peak. He hit well in AAA, and did well in his seven games at the major league level. The Yankees would also save about $10 million at the position, money which might be used to get them under the luxury tax, or pay a decent chunk of Max Scherzer‘s contract. They could also think about moving Didi Gregorius or Brendan Ryan to second.

Eovaldi is interesting, because he has a live fastball, but doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. That makes me wonder if his pitch selection is poor. I’d actually like to see what the Pirates could do with him.

Since Prado can play anywhere, he gives the Marlins some flexibility, but I have to agree with FanGraphs:

Maybe the Marlins realize that either McGehee and Gordon aren’t that good, and Prado will split time between both positions. But then, did they really need to give up an interesting young arm for a part-time infielder on the downside of his career? I like Prado more than most, but and I’d play him over McGehee, but even I don’t see that as a huge upgrade. This looks more like the Marlins moving wins around than getting better, but they definitely got older in the process.

The Yankees also got a backup for Mark Teixeira in the person of Garrett Jones.

December 19, 2014

Upton With Padres

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The Padres acquired Justin Upton from the Braves, but the details of the deal are not known yet. For example, did the Braves force the Padres to take B.J. Upton as well? It looks like San Diego will get Will Middlebrooks from Boston. I guess the Padres really didn’t like the team they had in 2014.

Meanwhile, the Braves have now gone the full Marlins. We’ll see how quickly they can rebuild.

Update: The Braves get a group of prospects, and FanGraphs has the breakdown.

December 19, 2014

It’s Worth It

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Bud Selig will receive $6 million a year from Major League Baseball in retirement. So he’s value a little less than a one WAR player. Truthfully, if all it took to get him to retire was $6 million a year, MLB should have coughed up the money years ago.

On the other hand, Bud is pretty old, so maybe MLB thinks they won’t need to pay him for that long a period. As of 2010, the life expectancy of an 80 year old male was eight years. So MLB should expect to be on the hook for $64 $48 million.

Since the article doesn’t explain what Bud will be doing to earn the money, here’s the best possible explanation:

Correction: I can’t do math this morning.

December 19, 2014

Rays Stung

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The Rays lost the St. Petersburg vote due to their unwillingness of give up some money:

Through questioning it was revealed that the current agreement allows the Rays to maintain 50% of the proceeds from redeveloping the site of Tropicana Field. Under the new deal that was brought to the City Council for vote, this would not have changed.

To many on the Council, this was a slap in the face. The Rays wanted to explore every opportunity to leave Tropicana Field, and they wanted to profit from Tropicana Field if they’d vacated the premises. On that realization, the vote swung from Yes to No.

I can’t feel sorry for the Rays. They were getting a good deal, but were unwilling to give something in return. Just another reason cities should not get in bed with sports teams.

December 19, 2014

Ticket Contest

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I’m sure Baseball Musings readers would be interested in help buying tickets. Since it’s the holiday season, the site partnered up with Rukkus, a sports ticket search engine, to get you tickets to any baseball game of your choice for free. Click on the image below for details.

Rukkus contest

Teams have certainly shaken things up this off-season. I hope you win and get a chance to see the new players coming to your town!

December 19, 2014

Peavy Stays

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Jake Peavy sticks with the Giants. He agrees to a two-year, $24 million contract.

Peavy struggled in Boston last season with a 1-9 record and a 4.72 ERA in 20 starts, but he put in a strong performance in August and September with the Giants after they acquired him from the Red Sox on July 26 in a trade for minor league pitchers Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree.

Peavy went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA and a 2.1 Wins Above Replacement in San Francisco to help the Giants make the playoffs as a wild-card entry. He threw 5 2/3 shutout innings against Washington in the opener of the National League Division Series, but finished the season on a down note, lasting only 1 1/3 innings in a 10-0 loss to Kansas City in Game 6 of the World Series.

It could be he’s just better suited to the NL West, as he allowed 20 home runs in 124 innings with the Red Sox, three in 78 2/3 innings with the Giants. The five parks in the AL East all are good places to hit home runs, while only two of the five in the NL West hurt pitchers.

December 18, 2014

Kemp Deal a Go

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It appears the Matt Kemp deal will go through:

The blockbuster deal between the San Diego Padres and Dodgers involving outfielder Matt Kemp has been agreed upon, sources told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne.

The deal was jeopardized after Kemp’s physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The Dodgers were upset that Kemp’s medical information leaked publicly, sources told Shelburne.

No word if there were any modifications to the deal.

December 18, 2014 December 18, 2014

Screwing the Dodgers

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The Matt Kemp deal between the Dodgers and Padres is on hold for unknown reasons. Kemp took his physical on Tuesday, and the speculation is the Padres found something. However:

As baseball waits on the Padres’ next move, Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan noted Wednesday that new Padres GM A.J. Preller comes from the Rangers organization, and that is significant “because Texas, where Preller grew his executive chops, has in the past used medical concerns as a way to rework deals at the last minute.”

It could also be the Wil Myers deal changed the Padres thinking. Maybe they don’t need Myers and Kemp. If the Kemp deal falls apart, so does the Dodgers deal with the Phillies for Jimmy Rollins. The Padres and Dodgers, after all, compete in the same division. If SD can use a medical excuse to nix the trade and put the Dodgers in a weakened position, might they do that? It would certainly be an evil plan.

Of course, Ken Rosenthal indicates the Padres do want Kemp, so in fact San Diego likely just wants a little more from the Dodgers.

Update: The latest news is Kemp has arthritic hips.

December 17, 2014

Volquez to the Royals

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The Pirates revive another career and send a pitcher to another big contract:

Edinson Volquez, a 31-year old right-hander who went 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 31 starts for the Pirates in 2014, has reached an agreement on a two-year, $20 million free-agent contract with the Royals, according to reports by CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Royals general manager Dayton Moore was unavailable for comment, but an agreement would wipe out any chance of James Shields returning. Shields, the Royals’ top starter over the past two seasons, was expected to be priced out of their market, but Moore said Tuesday that the team was still looking to add an arm.

Volquez is two years younger than Shields, but Shields was the better pitcher in 2014. Still, the Royals save a lot of money over competing for James on the free agent market.

December 17, 2014

Big Swap

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The Padres, Nationals, and Rays concluded an eleven player deal:

The link above is more readable than the tweet.

It works out that the Rays get five players, including Steven Souza from the Nationals. Souza is not a prospect. He’ll play 2015 as a 26 year old. He should be MLB ready, and the Rays will capture the top of his prime at league minimum. Rene Rivera is a veteran catcher. The Nationals also send out the very young Travis Ott. Burch Smith from the Padres is a high K, good control pitcher who should be able to step onto the MLB team, and Jake Bauers is a very young hitter who showed the ability to get on base so far. It’s a pretty good haul for Tampa Bay, two long term players, two players who should contribute this year and are locked up through their primes, and a veteran catcher.

Washington should be rolling on the river with Joe Ross and Trea Turner. Ross showed great control in the minors, and Turner posted great OBP numbers with some pop.

The Padres get Wil Myers who should help them this year and in the foreseeable future. Veteran catcher Ryan Hanigan joins him. Jose Castillo is an extremely young pitcher, as is Gerardo Reyes. Reyes looks like the better prospect at this point.

The Padres get players who can help them win now, the Nationals get a couple of players they can develop, and the Rays restock without totally gutting the team, and save money on the major league roster in the long run. Good job by all three teams.

December 17, 2014

Padres Going for the Playoffs

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The Padres are trying to acquire either Wil Myers from the Rays or Justin Upton from the Braves. Looks like they are trying to make a serious playoff push in 2015.

The second wild card provided a great reason for teams to try to compete for the playoffs, rather than sit out the season and collect their MLBAM money. It’s much easier to go from 81 wins to 88 wins to make the playoffs, rather than 90+. If the Royals and Pirates can make the playoffs, any team can do it. This increased competitive balance is a boon for the game, bringing in fans to long fallow teams. I like that.

December 16, 2014

Outlandish Trade Idea

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With the Yankees signing Chase Headley on Monday, they have a bit of a glut at the corners and designated hitter. They could probably use another starting pitcher. It strikes me that a trade that might be worth the risk is Alex Rodriguez to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Both have large contracts that are not producing. Alex off the big money part of the deal, so the Giants wouldn’t be taking on that much more money. San Francisco fans showed over the years they are tolerant of players with a steroid taint and disagreeable personalities. Lincecum might benefit from playing in a division where the hitters haven’t seen his delivery very much. Maybe Larry Rothschild can bring a different perspective to Tim’s approach that Dave Righetti. (This is not a criticism of Righetti. Sometimes, fresh eyes make a difference.)

If you believe the tabloids, the Yankees would be happy to lose Alex. While Lincecum might not want to leave the west coast, he might welcome an opportunity to start over. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, so it’s a great time for the Yankees to get a guy playing for a contract.

Both players have no-trade clauses, so either of them could torpedo the deal. But Alex may prefer playing third base every day, as opposed to sitting on the bench as a DH or learning to play first. It seems to me a risk that worth it for both clubs.

Update: Brian Cashman says A-Rod is a full time DH.

Update: A-Rod wants to play third base. I think this deal would work.

December 16, 2014

Morse in Miami

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The Miami Marlins agreed to a deal with Michael Morse, although there are competing stories as to why. The AP sees the two-year contract representing a replacement of Garrett Jones:

Miami considers Morse an upgrade over Jones, who will now be on the trade market. Last season Jones hit .246 with 15 homers and 53 RBI in 146 games and led all major league first basemen with 13 errors.

The Marlins opted for Morse after free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche turned down their offer and instead signed with the White Sox.

Looks Miami only has a Jones for ex-Nationals.

The Sporting News sees this move as setting up a platoon:

The reason that Morse fits in Miami, though, is his bat, most recently seen hitting the game-tying home run in the Giants’ pennant clincher, then driving in four runs in the World Series. Morse has gotten more than 500 at-bats only once in his career, in 2011, and probably will not get to that level with the Marlins, either. He will be able to spell a corner outfielder on occasion, but mainly he figures to play in a platoon with lefty-swinging Garrett Jones.

We’ll see. Both are possibilities.