Monthly Archives: July 2016

July 31, 2016

Shades of 1986

With two on and two out in the top of the ninth inning, the Red Sox score five runs to beat the Angels 5-3. Dustin Pedroia hit a three-run homer to give the Red Sox the lead, and Xander Bogaerts followed with a solo shot for the insurance run. It hearkens back to Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, where the Red Sox scored four runs in the top of the ninth against the Angels, the last two runs scoring with two out to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead. The Angels would tie it in the bottom of the ninth, but the Red Sox won it in 11 when Dave Henderson, who hit the two-out homer in the ninth hit a sacrifice fly to drive in the winning run. Huston Street played the role of Donnie Moore today.

The Angels waste another fine outing by Tyler Skaggs. He pitched 5 1/3 innings, and has yet to allow a run in his two starts back from Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox sit in third place in the AL East, 1 1/2 games separating the top three teams.

July 31, 2016

Rising Cain

Matt Cain just finished five no-hit innings against the Nationals. He walked four and struck out five. Unfortunately, the Giants won’t let him go long, and Madison Bumgarner pinch hits for Cain leading off the bottom of the fifth. He doubles off the rightfield wall. That’s his third double and fifth extra base hit of the of the season. The Giants lead the Nationals 1-0.

Update: Jeff Samardzija pinch ran for Bumgarner, and Samardzija scored on an error to make it 2-0. George Kontos starts the sixth inning trying to keep the no-hitter intact.

Update: Bryce Harper breaks up the no-hitter with a line-drive by the second baseman for a single.

July 31, 2016

Mauled by the Tigers

The Astros came into Detroit on the edge of the top two wild card positions, and leave 1 1/2 games behind Detroit after an 11-0 thumping Sunday afternoon. The Tigers outscored the Astros 28-8 in the three games, now it is Detroit that finds itself 1/2 game out of the second wild card slot, pending the outcomes of the Red Sox game against the Angels. The Tigers won six in a row, as their offense came alive for 45 runs.

It’s been a fun year in the AL, with various teams charging, then falling back. I hope it continues for a while.

July 31, 2016

The Super Goal

The Yankees came to the realization they can no longer simply buy their way into the playoffs:

Cashman all but admitted the Yankees were slow to adapt.

”The chessboard that’s lined up that we’re playing is not the same chessboard that we were playing back when I just started in the late `80s,” he said. ”It’s a recognition of how the industry’s completely different today and the operating standards are completely different today, and there’s just a sounder recognition of that. And if you want to become a super team, there’s certain ways to go about that that you have to strongly consider. And although they may be tough decisions, the one thing the Yankees have always stood for and do stand for is the effort in trying to become a super team.”

Convinced they are unlikely to reach the playoffs this year, the Yankees are pivoting to the future. New York hopes to get under the luxury tax threshold by no later than 2018, which would put the team in prime position to spend again after that season. Bryce Harper, Jose Fernandez, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw are among the stars who could be on the market that fall.

That’s the nice thing about being a team with a lot of money. If you can build a good base, it’s easy to add the final pieces via trades and free agency. That’s how they won in the 1990s. We’ll see if they can pull it off again.

July 31, 2016

Lucroy Says No

1 Reply

Jonathan Lucroy exercised his no-trade clause, killing the trade between the Brewers and the Indians.

Per @bnightengale, #Indians told Lucroy he would be backup C/1B/DH in 17, with Gomes regular C. Team says it simply made Lucroy no promises.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2016

Lucroy gave brief explanation of decision : wants long-term gain not short term gain.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 31, 2016

Maybe some other team will be willing to give Lucroy more of a long-term promise. He is seasonal age 30, so he is likely to decline in the next few years, as catchers tend to decline faster than other position players. He may have blown a chance to win a World Series.

July 31, 2016

Games of the Day

The Orioles try to regain first place in the AL East as they send Chris Tillman against Aaron Sanchez. Tillman tries to become the first 15 game winner in the majors, as he is tied three other American League pitchers and Stephen Strasburg. He holds hitters in check better on the road, with a .204/.281/.354 opposition slash line. Sanchez is an excellent Cy Young candidate based on Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points. He is just a hair behind Cole Hamels for the American League lead.

The Rockies go for a sweep of the Mets, having held New York to four runs total in the first three games of the series. It will be a tough game for Colorado as they send Chad Bettis against Noah Syndergaard. Bettis is 9-6 despite a 5.19 ERA. He walks very few batters, but gives up about half his home runs with runners on base. He’s allowed 11 of his 15 home runs on the road, despite pitching slightly better away from Coors. Syndergaard’s 9-5 record goes nicely with his 2.45 ERA, although the five losses seem a bit high. He owns a 2.36 ERA at home. In a way, it’s a matchup between a good luck pitcher and a bad luck pitcher (at least in terms of record).

The Red Sox send their potential Cy Young winner, Steven Wright, against the Angels and Tyler Skaggs. Wright allowed 12 home runs in 72 2/3 innings in 2015, just eight in 132 2/3 innings in 2016. Skaggs made a successful return from Tommy John surgery in his first start of the season, holding the Royals to three hits and one walk in seven shutout innings.

Finally, Homer Bailey returns to the Reds rotation as he faces the Padres and Paul Clemens. Bailey made two starts in 2015 before elbow surgery put him on the self. He has a 1.64 career ERA at PETCO Park. Clemens makes his fourth start of the year to go with four relief appearances. As a starter, he allowed seven home runs in 15 innings, walking 10.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2016

Miller Official

The Yankees officially traded Andrew Miller to the Indians:

The Indians are sending back four players, including top prospects Justus Sheffield and Clint Frazier, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Here’s Olney’s account:

Minor league pitchers Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen are also heading to New York.

Miller is a terrific relief pitcher, and doesn’t seem to be bothered by his role. He can setup or close.

Frazier is a high OBP outfielder. When I look at his stats, I think Brett Gardner. Sheffield is just seasonal age 20, and in the low minors allowed just 14 home runs in 243 1/3 innings. Feyereisen is blowing away batters at AA, but with a high walk rate. Heller should really be major league ready. He is seasonal age 24 and is posting great three-true outcome numbers this season.

The Yankees got a nice haul of prospects for a relief pitcher. I’m not sure any of them will be a star, but they all should be players that contribute eventually.

July 31, 2016

Indians Going For It

Various rumors indicate the Indians are going to get Andrew Miller and Jonathan Lucroy. The Miller deal seems more definite, while Lucroy has not waived his no-trade. I’ll look at these deals more closely when and if they become official.

It’s good to see the Indians going all in for once.

July 31, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.376 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.361 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain
0.334 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain
0.334 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza
0.314 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin
0.311 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis
0.309 — Ian Desmond batting against Dillon Gee
0.308 — Rougned Odor batting against Dillon Gee
0.307 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee
0.307 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Chad Bettis

It appears some of the top hitters in the league are going against pitchers who allow hits. That’s a pretty good combination. The NN list looks like this:

0.376, 0.792 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.361, 0.773 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.334, 0.746 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.314, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.334, 0.732 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.277, 0.724 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.280, 0.717 — Paulo Orlando batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.311, 0.716 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288, 0.715 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.307, 0.715 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee.

I like the agreement between the two models at the top of the list. I find this a good confirmation of the Log5 method. The features that the NN detect are subtle. It’s also easy to add features and just build a new model, as with the park effects.

The NN with the ballpark factored in looks like this:

0.376, 0.795 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.361, 0.777 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.334, 0.751 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.334, 0.740 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.314, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.277, 0.724 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.307, 0.724 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee.
0.280, 0.722 — Paulo Orlando batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.311, 0.722 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis.
0.304, 0.720 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Garza.

Those are very high probabilities for Altuve and Murphy. It looks like a good day to double down. Even with probabilities that high, however, there still is a 1 in 5 chance of the batter not getting a hit in the game. Good luck!

July 31, 2016

Rea’s Elbow

Colin Rea left his first start with the Marlins after 3 1/3 innings due to a problem with his elbow:

“Just kind of felt something in my elbow and it gradually got worse throughout the game,” Rea said. “I don’t know if I could have thrown another pitch.”

Catcher Jeff Mathis sensed a change in Rea during the third inning.

“Just that it wasn’t coming out quite as hard as it was in the first and second innings,” Mathis said. “It was the first time I’ve worked with him. It’s just unfortunate. Just hope everything works out.”

Rea was listed as day-to-day and the extent of the injury was not known following the game. Any hint of elbow trouble, though, is alarming with a pitcher.

He felt tightness during his pre-game warm up. This pretty much sounds like what happened to Stephen Strasburg the day he blew out his elbow. Stay tuned.

Rea pitched well up to that point, and the Marlins went on to an 11-0 victory over the Cardinals.

Update: Looks like the injury is a sprain. That’s good news.

July 31, 2016

Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 30, 2016

Overton Wall

Making his fourth start of the season, Dillon Overton of the Athletics allowed three home runs in 3 1/3 innings. The Indians added a fourth to lead 6-2 in the fourth inning. Overton has now allowed nine home runs in 18 1/3 innings of work. Wow. The highest HR rate in the majors this year for a pitcher with at least 18 innings is Steven Geltz, who allowed 10 home runs in 20 innings.

July 30, 2016

Little Pink Houses

The team that can’t decide on a closer acquired a new one:

The Washington Nationals found a reliable pitcher for the ninth inning, acquiring All-Star closer Mark Melancon from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday.

Washington sent reliever Felipe Rivero and pitching prospect Taylor Hearn to the Pirates for Melancon, who supplants struggling Jonathan Papelbon as Washington’s closer. Melancon is expected to join the Nationals on Sunday for their series finale at San Francisco.

Note that the Pirates, who are very much in the wild card race, know that finding a closer is not that big a deal, so were very happy to give up Mark “Cougar” Melancon for two good, young, and cheap arms. It strikes me that the Nationals could have just made Rivero the closer and released Papelbon. They’re going to pay him for nothing anyway.

The Pirates do a good job of taking advantage of Mike Rizzo’s weak spot, a proven closer.

July 30, 2016

Games of the Day

Toronto could move ahead of Baltimore in the AL East race, and they have the advantage in starting pitchers today as the Orioles send Yovani Gallardo against J.A. Happ. Gallardo comes into the game with a 5.37 ERA, mostly due to 33 walks and eight home runs allowed in 62 innings. He’s working on a 4.88 ERA in July. Happ’s 13 wins is a single season career high for him, beating his 12 wins in 2009. He walked just 37 batters in 124 innings this season. He is 8-1 in Toronto this season as well.

Detroit can move past Houston into the third slot in the AL Wild Card race with a win in Detroit today. Mike Fiers leads the Astros against Justin Verlander. Fiers pitched poorly on the road this season, posting a 6.75 ERA. He struck out just 21 batters in 40 innings while allowing seven home runs away from Houston. Verlander looks to finish a strong July. He is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA in five starts. He struck out 37 in 33 2/3 innings, looking more like his younger self.

Enjoy!

July 30, 2016

Always Something New

3 Replies

One thing I love about baseball is on any given day, you may see something you’ve never seen before:

The Washington Nationals made history by turning the first 3-3-5 triple play ever in the major leagues then watched as third baseman Anthony Rendon tossed the ball from the milestone moment into the crowd at AT&T Park.

…

The Giants loaded the bases in the eighth with two walks sandwiched around a single. Brandon Crawford then lined an 0-1 pitch from Sammy Solis to first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who had entered the game moments earlier as a part of a double switch.

Zimmerman quickly stepped on first base for the second out then threw to third baseman Anthony Rendon to catch Denard Span to complete the triple play.

“Once I caught it I knew I had the double play,” said Zimmerman, who was moved a few steps back before Crawford swung. “Then Tony was jumping up and down with a smile on his face so I just tossed the ball over to him. Got out of a jam just like that.”

Cool. I’m impressed Zimmerman didn’t throw the ball over Rendon’s head. 🙂

The Nationals won 4-1. Washington now holds a six game lead in the NL East, while the Giants lead is down to one game. Max Scherzer moves into third place in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points with the fine outing.

July 30, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy
0.315 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson
0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.309 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez
0.306 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jake Peavy
0.304 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tom Milone
0.300 — Tyler Naquin batting against Dillon Overton
0.299 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia
0.299 — Cameron Maybin batting against Michael Fiers

Older pitchers Peavy and Colon seem to be the most hittable today.

The NN produces this list:

0.332, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy.
0.276, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Verlander.
0.315, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.309, 0.734 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez.
0.310, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.729 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.723 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.279, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.288, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Braden A Shipley.
0.297, 0.718 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dillon Overton.

The NN likes Garcia less than Peavy, compared to Log5. Both agree on Daniel Murphy at the top of the list.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.332, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy.
0.276, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Verlander.
0.309, 0.741 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez.
0.315, 0.740 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.310, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.731 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.730 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.723 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.
0.306, 0.722 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jake Peavy.
0.297, 0.722 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dillon Overton.
0.279, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.

Corey Seager drops out of the top ten, and Wilson Ramos moves up.

While Murphy is the consensus first choice, the double down pick is tougher. Altuve doesn’t make he Log5 list, so Orlando or Marte would seem to be the consensus choice if you want to double down. Note too, that there is a secondary contest to hit .406 for the rest of the season to honor Ted Williams. I may write an NN figure out the probability of a player hitting at least .400 in a game.

July 30, 2016

Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 29, 2016

Blue Jays Gain

The Orioles and Blue Jays came into their game Friday night one and two respectively in the American League in home runs. They were also separated by 1 1/2 games in the AL East. The Blue Jays gained on the Orioles in both categories as they hit three home runs to the Orioles one, and beat Baltimore 6-5. Edwin Encarnacion hit his 28th HR of the year, and Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki added dingers as well. The Blue Jays are now just five home runs behind Baltimore, although the Orioles have a game in hand.

July 29, 2016

Cashnering In

The Marlins tried to improve their rotation Friday by acquiring Andrew Cashner from the Padres:

The Miami Marlins bolstered their starting rotation with some much-needed reinforcements Friday, acquiring right-handers Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea in a seven-player trade with the San Diego Padres.

The Marlins, eager to shore up their rotation for a playoff push, will also receive pitching prospect Tayron Guerrero and cash considerations for right-handers Jarred Cosart and Carter Capps and two minor leaguers, pitching prospect Luis Castillo and first baseman Josh Naylor.

Cashner pitched very well in 2013-2014 as he transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. His strikeouts were down, but his walk rate was excellent and he didn’t allow home runs. Since the start of 2015, however, his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks and home runs, the result being an ERA about 1.6 runs higher than the previous two years. This comes with him pitching in a park that favors pitchers and helps him. I’m not sold on this move helping the Marlins. Rea is just entering his prime, but has yet to show good control in either the minor or the majors. The designation of Tayron Guerrero as a prospect is generous. He is 25 years old, has been in the minors since he was 19, and walks a ton of batters. I am underwhelmed with the Marlins haul.

On the other side, Cosart’s walks are two high and his strikeouts are too low, a deadly combination. Capps, however, is a blow the batters away reliever, always useful in the current environment of going to lights out pitchers from the seventh inning on. I very much like Castillo’s three true outcomes, although he strikes me as old for high A. Naylor is just 19 years old, but already listed as Firstbase/DH. Seems like he won’t be a defensive whiz.

Overall, I like the Padres side of the deal better, but the Marlins are trying to win this year. If they do that, the trades will be worth it.

July 29, 2016

Games of the Day

Hisashi Iwakuma and Jon Lester get the day started with an afternoon game in Chicago as the Mariners visit the Cubs. Iwakuma ranks seventh in the majors in winning percentage since joining the majors in 2012. Not bad, considering the Mariners have not been a great team in that time frame. Lester tries to continue his home dominance. He owns a 2.18 ERA at Wrigley this season.

Baltimore opens an important AL East series in Toronto with Kevin Gausman facing Marco Estrada. The Orioles lead over the Blue Jays is 1 1/2 games. Gausman’s poor record comes mostly from this struggles on the road. He is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA away from Camden Yards. Estrada suffers some bad luck as well, with a 5-4 record despite a 2.94 ERA. Or maybe his luck evens out. His ERA is much lower than his FIP.

The Rockies try to continue their surge into the playoff picture as Tyler Chatwood takes on Steven Matz of the Mets. Chatwood was built for the Rockies road games, 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA away from Coors with no home runs allowed in 48 1/3 innings. Matz allowed eight of his 11 home runs at Citi Field this year.

Finally, the Nationals and Giants continue their series between first place teams as Max Scherzer battle Jeff Samardzija. Sherzer has been on a roll since the start of June, tied with Michael Fulmer for the best ERA in the majors in that time, 1.71. Samardzija allowed just four of his 19 home runs at home this season.

Enjoy!

July 29, 2016

Nunez Heads West

The Twins traded Eduardo Nunez to the Giants after Thursday night’s win against the Orioles:

The move adds some much-needed depth to San Francisco’s injury-plagued infield.

Second baseman Joe Panik was activated off the disabled list prior to the Giants’ game against Washington on Thursday, while third baseman Matt Duffy remains out with a strained left Achilles. Backup infielder Ehire Adrianza has also been sidelined since mid-April with a foot injury.

It looks like the Giants expect Nunez to be their utility infielder when the rest of the team is healthy again. That’s pretty much been his role until this season.

Adalberto Mejia goes to the Twins. He should fit right in with an organization that values pitchers who limit walks. This should be a trade that helps both teams.

July 29, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum
0.346 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum
0.335 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum
0.332 — Sandy Leon batting against Tim Lincecum
0.330 — David Ortiz batting against Tim Lincecum
0.322 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake
0.319 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.317 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake
0.316 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd

Off-hand, I would say Tim Lincecum’s comeback is not going well. Left-handed batters are hitting him hard, and right-handers are just wailing on him.

0.361, 0.766 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.315, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd.
0.316, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.346, 0.747 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.322, 0.740 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake.
0.299, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.335, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.299, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Leake.
0.317, 0.730 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake.
0.304, 0.726 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.319, 0.726 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.

Dee Gordon went 0 for 4 in his return to the majors Thursday night. He has appeared in the top ten of the NN list during most of this time, but I removed him because he was suspended. Now that he is back, I suggest taking this probability with a grain of salt, because we don’t know how much the PEDs influence the accomplishments of his past seasons. Note that the NN gives Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy big boosts, which may give you an idea that the NN values the batter’s accomplishments more than the pitcher’s ability to stop hits. This is probably correct, since the defense behind the pitcher has a lot to do with stopping hits.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.361, 0.768 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.315, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd.
0.316, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.346, 0.750 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.322, 0.743 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake.
0.335, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.299, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.319, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.317, 0.735 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake.
0.299, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Leake.

All three evaluations put Bogaerts at the top of the list. As always, your best picks are going to go hitless about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 29, 2016

State of the Cy

With Clayton Kershaw remaining on the disabled list, Madison Bumgarner opened up a lead in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points. Note that Kershaw was so good in the time he pitched, he remains in second place. Johnny Cueto had a shot to catch Kershaw Thursday night with a great game, but instead gave up three runs in five innings as the Nationals beat the Giants 4-2. With Jose Fernandez having a rough game against the Cardinals, Stephen Strasburg moves into fourth place in the race, with his teammate Max Scherzer not too far behind. Right now, Bumgarner is in control, but there is a nice, tight bunch behind him.

On the AL side, Cole Hamels pitched himself into first place in the AL with a masterful performance over the Royals, Texas winning a close game 3-2. Hamels went eight inning, striking out 12. He should get a bonus his Ks, since the Royals as a team do not strike out much. Hamels passes Aaron Sanchez, who is also ten games over .500. Sanchez pitched one less inning, allowed two fewer runs, but struck out 17 fewer batters than Hamels. It’s a very close race. Chris Sale is right behind them, and if he had won on Thursday he would be in second place, and if he had pitched Saturday he might be in first place. The AL is shaping up to be a very tight vote.

July 29, 2016

Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

July 28, 2016

Peripatetic Player

Jake Elmore went 1 for 3 with a walk in the Brewers 6-4 win over the Diamondbacks Thursday afternoon. I notice his nice OPB, now at .417, and realized I didn’t know the player. Elmore is the player everyone wants but no one wants to keep. He is an infielder by trade, who played all nine positions, pitching twice in the majors. (He also made spot pitching appearances in the minors.) What struck when I looked at his MLB record is that he played for five different teams in each of the last five years. He is the ultimate one and done player. He has never been traded. He was either claimed on waivers or granted free agency.

Offensively, he does one thing well, draw walks. He has a low career BA, but drew 40 walks in 416 PA. He is versatile, as managers are able to plug him into any position. At age 29, he’s mature enough to play the game right. He hasn’t been able to keep a home, but he always finds one. While he won’t have a great career, he certainly will have one that will be talked about in trivia contests.

July 28, 2016

Dee or Dietrich

Dee Gordon returns from his suspension on Thursday, and Anna McDonald wonders how the Marlins work him back into the lineup:

On Thursday, Gordon will be reinstated. But there’s a measure of uncertainty that surrounds his return and raises several questions for the Marlins: How will they use Gordon without really knowing what he will bring to the table after being out for 80 games? How will Gordon fit into the tight fabric of a team that is already well developed?

By getting the reigning NL batting champion and the two-time reigning stolen-base king back into the fold, the Marlins are in a position to be better in the season’s final two months. The first challenge they face is to figure out how to weave Gordon back into playing every-day baseball.

“I can’t tell you that I have an ironclad plan of how we’re going to do it,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said in St. Louis. “It will be more of a blend than just throwing him into the fire. So, that’s kind of the way we’re talking about it.”

There’s an assumption here that Gordon will be better than the current second baseman, Derek Dietrich. Dietrich did a great job this season of getting on base, although he slumped recently. Since Gordon was taking PEDs, why should we believe his 2015 performance was real? Gordon won’t be able to play in the post-season, so why take playing time away from the person who would need to hold down second base in the playoffs? Apart from Dietrich getting hurt, or his 47 PA slump continuing for a long time, there is no good reason to play Gordon except to rest other infielders. I would not be surprised if the Marlins traded him by Monday.

Gordon did offer an apology, although if he indeed didn’t know he took the substance, I don’t know why he needed to apologize.

July 28, 2016

Games of the Day

Tyler Anderson takes on Jacob deGrom as the Rockies travel to New York to face the Mets. Anderson is off to a good start in his rookie year, 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He’s walked just 10 batters in 48 innings. He also handled Coors Field well, with a 3.47 ERA there. In his third major league season, deGrom is working on his third sub-3.00 ERA. He currently stands at 2.73. His strikeout rate is much higher at home than on the road, 10.47 at Citi Field this year, 6.93 on the road.

Chris Sale returns to the mound, likely in a well-tailored uniform, as the White Sox and Cubs continue their series. John Lackey pitches for the Cubs. Sale’s worst start of the year came in his only interleague game, against the Braves. Sale, however, basically owns the Cubs, with a 0.56 ERA in four appearances, striking out 28 in 16 innings. Lackey is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA in July, mostly due to allowing six home runs and 11 walks in 26 innings.

Finally, the Nationals make their way to San Francisco as Tanner Roark battles Johnny Cueto. Roark owns a reverse platoon split this season. The right-hander holds lefties to a .201/.296/.266 slash line, while righties hit .272/.314/.368. Cueto is 10-0 with a 1.90 ERA in night games this season. He made 12 of his 20 starts at night.

Enjoy!

July 28, 2016

Signs of Life

Four teams that did not play well in the first half of the season are showing signs of life since the All-Star break. The top four teams in that time are the Athletics and Rockies at 9-4, the Reds and the Angels at 8-4. Three of those clubs beat first place teams on Wednesday.

The Athletics and Angels remain far behind in both the division and wild card races, but with records around .450 they are proving to be not so bad teams. The A’s are getting on base more and hitting for more power, while their ERA has dropped 0.8 runs as their pitchers do the opposite. The Angels are hitting better, with a 30 point increase in BA and a 50 point increase in slugging percentage. Their pitchers are walking a batter every five innings since the break.

The Reds are now at .396. In my find, getting over .400 is important. A .400 could be a good team that just had bad luck. Under .400 is simply a bad team. The Reds hitters went from a .298 OBP before the break to a .344 OBP since. Billy Hamilton, who always lacked in that category, is at .375 over his last 12 games, with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto off the charts. The pitchers upped their strikeouts, which lowered the hits allowed, and their ERA.

The Rockies are hitting worse since the break, but the pitchers lowered their ERA over 1 1/2 runs. They are walking a ton of batters, but stopped allowing home runs. Seven of their thirteen games have been at home, so it wasn’t just a road effect. Of the four team, the Rockies have the best chance at making a playoff run, only six games out of the wild card. The played ten games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay in this stretch, but taking two of three from Baltimore has to increase their confidence.

July 28, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.323 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver
0.308 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver
0.306 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha
0.306 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray
0.303 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha
0.299 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price
0.297 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jered Weaver
0.295 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha
0.293 — Sandy Leon batting against Jered Weaver

Sandy Leon plate appearances are starting to get high enough that the regression toward the mean isn’t pulling him down as much. He’s one of many Red Sox players the Log5 method likes today.

The NN produces this list:

0.323, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.292, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha.
0.299, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price.
0.308, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.308, 0.723 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.303, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha.
0.306, 0.721 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray.
0.295, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
0.271, 0.713 — Paulo Orlando batting against Cole Hamels.

The NN prefers Murphy against Cueto instead of Nunez against Jimenez. In this case, it likes the better hitter over the more hittable pitcher.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.323, 0.749 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.292, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.732 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha.
0.299, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price.
0.308, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.308, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.306, 0.727 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray.
0.303, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha.
0.271, 0.719 — Paulo Orlando batting against Cole Hamels.
0.295, 0.718 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.

The two NN argree on the top six. Bogaerts is the unanimous first pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 28, 2016

Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.