Monthly Archives: November 2016

November 30, 2016

Five More Years

The new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) appears to be in place:

Major League Baseball’s players and owners have agreed on a new collective bargaining agreement, sources tell MLB.com’s Richard Justice. The new agreement calls for a five-year deal, according to multiple reports. Neither side has confirmed a new agreement is formally in place, but representatives from both camps emerged visibly pleased and shook hands in public view nearly four hours before Wednesday night’s deadline.

Players and owners had until 11:59 p.m. ET to reach a deal. After that, both sides would have had to agree to an extension or the owners could have imposed a lockout.

The structure of the deal is in place with details to be finalized. A memorandum of understanding will be drafted, which then must be ratified by both sides.

Good news and not surprising. The acrimony that existed during the first three decades of the union have greatly dissipated over the years as the owners who knew and loved the reserve clause died off. We’ll wait for the details, but baseball will go on uninterrupted for another five years.

November 30, 2016

Draft Dropped

It appears Major League Baseball abandoned the idea for an international draft in the current labor negotiations. Good. There is no indication the players gave up anything to keep the draft out of the CBA.

The luxury tax is now the main point of negotiation, according the story. That’s just money, however, and since baseball is awash in money, that should be relatively easy to resolve.

November 30, 2016

Gardner and the Giants

Harrison Howard suggests the Giants trade for the Yankees Brett Gardner:

Gardner’s contract has him with a ball club through 2018, with a team option for 2019. If not this season, but next season the Yankees will need Gardner off the roster. They are rebuilding and don’t need a 33-year-old taking playing time away from their top outfield prospects. This off-season makes the most sense to move him. His trade value won’t be higher than it is right now. The Giants need to take advantage of this and acquire Gardner before another team jumps on him.

Interestingly, the article feels that Gardner would improve the Giants with his glove more than his bat. Unfortunately, the last three seasons FanGraphs rates him as a negative outfielder. The Giants defense was fine in 2016 in LF.

Gardner’s biggest plus would be his OBP, but the trade would give them an old outfield with Denard Span and Hunter Pence. Defense is a young man’s game, so while they may generate some runs, some balls will fall in for hits.

November 29, 2016

Cespedes Signs

Yoenis Cespedes unofficially agreed to a deal with the Mets:

A person familiar with the negotiations tells The Associated Press that outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets have agreed to a $110 million, four-year contract.

The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity Tuesday because the agreement is subject to Cespedes successfully completing a physical.

The 31-year-old Cespedes gets a full no-trade provision as part of the agreement. The deal’s $27.5 million average annual value ties former Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez for the second-highest among position players, trailing only Miguel Cabrera’s $29.2 million with Detroit.

I really like this contract. Cespedes averaged 4.4 WAR per year over the last three seasons. If you figure a 10% fall-off per season (since he is over 30), he would generate 13.6 WAR over the life of the contract, which at $8 million per WAR comes out to $110 million. Cespedes went for a very high average value instead of a long-term contract. If he plays well over the next four seasons, he can cash in at an even higher rate for his remaining WAR, and in the mean-time gets to be among the highest paid players in the game on an annual basis.

In general, I think players would do better in the long run if they did shorter contracts with a higher average value. It works for the clubs, too, as they are not paying a player too much after his production drops. I hope to see more of this kind of deal.

November 29, 2016

Trade Strategy

U.S.S. Mariner provides an interesting take on Jerry DiPoto’s trade strategy:

Jerry Dipoto and the M’s came to view a player who’d played his way to a lower ceiling as having more value in trade – even without a mint-conditioned prospect sheen – than they do on the M’s roster.

The post shows how that explains the moves made so far this off-season by the M’s. Rather than waste time developing disappointing prospects, the M’s move them to another team who believe those prospects still have upside.

November 28, 2016

Returning to Scioscia’s Roots

Nicolas Stellini notes a positive note for the Angels in 2016, their batters struck out very little:

Los Angeles finished in the bottom half of baseball in terms of scoring runs, yes — and fared even more poorly by that measure after accounting for park and league — but they also managed to record the majors’ lowest strikeout rate as a team. If you had to guess which team was the best at not striking out, the Angels would probably be something like your 12th guess. Outside of Trout, the team has been so bland on offense that you can’t really think of anything interesting they do. I’m glad we have this chance to talk about something that the Angels did besides providing Tim Lincecum with the chance to throw batting practice.

The Angels struck out in 19.2% of their plate appearances in 2015, which put them in the upper third of the league in terms of avoiding punchouts. That mark was at 20.1% in 2014, and they brought it all the way down to 16.4% this year. That’s pretty darn good.

Back in 2002, the year the Angels won the World Series, they struck out and walked very little. The Angels went up against a poor defensive team, the Yankees, in the ALDS. That year, the Yankees pitchers struck out the second most batters in the AL, which helped cover up their poor defense. The Angels only struck out 18 times in four games that series, and balls kept finding holes. I’m not surprised that with a weak offense, a Mike Scioscia team is doing it’s best to put the ball in play.

November 28, 2016

More on the Cy Young Debate

Sabermetric Research looks at the defensive debate swirling around Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. Phil Birnbaum uses a Monte Carlo approach to show how luck could result in Verlander getting better than Tigers average defense on the days he pitched, and uses a run support analogy.

All well and good, except pitchers have little to do with run support in the AL, and they have quite a lot to do with defense. What I want to see, and haven’t so far, are how difficult or easy balls in play were against Porcello and Verlander compared to other pitchers on the team. So if the expected BABIP against Verlander was .240, then his .255 number doesn’t look so good. Somebody has those numbers.

November 27, 2016

Head to Head Voting

Tom Tango is rating players on the Hall of Fame ballot by head-to-head comparison. Voting is fun, and the results so far make some sense, although not my precise order. The more votes, the better the results!

November 27, 2016

Too Much Debt

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The Dodgers are carrying too much debt, according to MLB rules:

The rule, designed to ensure teams have the resources to meet their financial obligations, generally limits debt to no more than 12 times annual revenue, minus expenses. The Dodgers were not profitable in any of the first three full seasons under new ownership, co-owner Todd Boehly said last year. Their debt is believed to be in the hundreds of millions.

Guggenheim’s spending — from the assumption of a quarter-billion in contracts to get Adrian Gonzalez in 2012 to the sport’s first $300-million payroll in 2015 — raised eyebrows throughout the industry. The New York Yankees led the major leagues in payroll every season from 1999-2012, but the Dodgers have led in every full season under Guggenheim ownership.

“The Dodgers blew past the Yankees like Grant through Richmond,” said Ron Fowler, executive chairman of the San Diego Padres.

Manfred said the Dodgers’ five-year waiver from the debt service requirements was authorized by the collective bargaining agreement in place at the time of the sale.

Debt is an interesting animal. The ability to service debt depends on lots of factors, including the value of the property financed, the interest rate, the credit worthiness of the debtor, and the liquidity of the lender. Is the interest rate fixed or variable? Can the loans be called?

I suspect that with the value of the Dodgers being in the billions and the debt in hundred of millions, Guggenheim can service it just fine. This rule is more about preserving competitive balance than worrying about the financial health of the Dodgers.

November 26, 2016

Friends, Roman, Phillies

Tal Venada suggests that Howie Kendrick would be a good stop-gap in the outfield if he bounces back a bit from his 2016 campaign. The projections at FanGraphs make that appear likely. The Phillies need to improve two outfield positions, however, and maybe Roman Quinn is the answer to the other slot. His development was slowed by injuries, but hit .295/.359/.438 in 579 AA plate appearances. He will play 2017 as a 24-year-old, which means the Phillies will control his prime cost effectively. He did a great job getting on base in his brief time in the majors. An outfield with Kendrick and Quinn on either side of Odubel Herrera should be much more productive, and help move the team out of the bottom slot in runs scored.

November 24, 2016

Holiday Deal

The Diamondbacks and Mariners accomplished a significant five-player trade:

Mike Hazen aimed high in his first trade as Diamondbacks’ general manager, landing a starting pitcher with potentially sizable upside on Wednesday night when he acquired right-hander Taijuan Walker in a five-player deal that sent infielder Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners.

“It’s not one of those guys that you’re able to acquire all the time with the state of the game now with pitching and the premium, especially on starting pitching,” Hazen said on a conference call to announce the deal. “We felt like this was an opportunity we needed to take at this moment in time.”

In addition to Walker, the Diamondbacks also acquired infielder Ketel Marte while sending outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-handed reliever Zac Curtis to the Mariners.

Walker does not live up to his name, with his strength as a pitcher his walk rate, 2.5 per nine innings pitched. He’ll play 2017 as a 24-year-old, so he has yet to reach his peak. His strikeout rate is fine but not spectacular, but he does allow home runs. Note that he allowed more power in Seattle, a park not known for it’s home runs. I would think that weakness would hurt him in Arizona.

Segura gives the Mariners a middle infielder who gets on base and usually plays good defense. Marte is only 23, and had a rough second year at the plate. He hurt his thumb, which can be a huge factor in a batter’s production. I suspect the Mariners wanted to win now, and they decided they could not wait to see if Marte’s bat recovered.

Haniger is an outfielder with a great minor league OBP, but he’s old, playing at seasonal age 26 in 2017. That means if he’s going to produce at the major league level, it’s now or never. Curtis is a high strikeout lefty who showed good control in the minors, but not so far in the majors.

I’m tempted to say the Mariners did a lot better in this deal, in that all three players they acquired should be able to help them win now. The Diamondbacks will come out of this well if the two players they acquired reach their upside potential.

November 24, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving

On this Thanksgiving I want to send my appreciation out to all the baseball fans and professionals who read Baseball Musings. Baseball Musings now covers 15 seasons of Major League Baseball and continues to be a labor of love. All of you make it possible.

I wish you a wonderful day with with your family and friends, delicious food, and safe travel!

November 22, 2016

Time for Tough Talk

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MLB and the MLBPA are negotiating a new labor agreement, and the players are not doing well. Therefore, they are taking their case to the press:

The owners will consider voting to lock out the players if the two sides cannot reach a new collective-bargaining agreement by the time the current deal expires on Dec. 1, according to sources with knowledge of the discussions.

A lockout would put baseball’s business on hold, delaying free-agent signings and trades until a new agreement is reached. The winter meetings, a joint venture between the majors and minors scheduled to take place from Dec. 4 to 8 near Washington D.C., might still transpire, but without the usual frenzy of major-league activity.

The possibility of a lockout stems from the owners’ frustration with the players’ union over the slow pace of the discussions, sources said. The two sides still have more than a week to complete a deal, but a number of significant issues remain unresolved.

…

Two veteran players with knowledge of the talks, however, said that the players will fight for what they believe are the core beliefs and foundation of the union.

Both spoke on condition of anonymity, due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.

“We are not afraid of a lockout,” one of those players said.

Remember, this is posturing. There is no reason to reach any kind of agreement until the last minute, because that is when you get the best deal. Every CBA is seems that people start worrying when the deadline gets close that labor trouble is on the way. What’s true is that everyone is doing rather well under the current system, and both sides would be foolish to trade that away. My guess is that thinks will be dark until an hour before the deadline, and then we’ll about amazing progress, and at worst a short extension of the negotiating period to get it done.

I personally think the the MLBPA is thinking too small lately. They want free agent compensation abolished, so MLB counters with trading that for an international draft. The two are not really equal, however, and there’s really no way of trading down from no compensation to some compensation. The MLBPA should have asked for no compensation, and two years until free agency, eliminating the need for arbitration in those cases. Then they could possibly get the international draft off the table, and maybe get rid of compensation and free agency after five years, which would be a big improvement.

November 22, 2016

Pitchers and Defense

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Baseball Think Factory links to a developing debate between Joe Posnanski and Sean Forman about the defensive adjustments to pitcher WAR at Baseball Reference. As someone who dabbled in measuring defense, figuring out how much some defense helped or hurt a particular pitcher is a tough problem.

The Posnanski piece wonders why rWAR rates Justin Verlander so much higher than Rick Porcello. The difference comes down to a defensive adjustment. The Red Sox rate as an excellent defense, the Tigers as a poor defensive team. Posnanski’s argument is that the Tigers played great defense behind Verlander, as his BABIP was .256 versus the team BABIP of .302. Forman’s argument is that the team’s defense is the team’s defense, and there’s no reason to think they got good because Verlander was on the mound. There is a lot of random variation in baseball, because nearly every set of individual stats is a small sample size.

When I worked on the Probabilistic Model of Range, one thing I liked to do was look at the expected outs a pitcher produced versus the actual outs recorded. Here’s a post from the end of the 2011 season, when Verlander won the Cy Young Award:

Notice that Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett both produced high expected DERs, but the defense magnified that by turning so many more batted balls into outs. Verlander pitched very well, but his defense gave him that extra push into the Cy Young.

Maybe that happened again. Maybe Verlander is just so good at inducing poor contact that even a bad defensive team looks good. I would love to know the expectations for Verlander’s and Porcello’s balls in play.

November 21, 2016

Posada Versus Rodriguez

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Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez reach the Hall of Fame ballot at the same time. Rodriguez is much more likely to get the induction nod due to his much longer career. Both men are the same seasonal age, but Rodriguez came to the majors at age 19 and contributed immediately. Posada played a bit starting at age 23, but did not become a full-time player until age 26. From 1998 to the end of their careers, Rodriguez led Posada in rWAR 43.7 to 42.4. That’s very close. Overall, however, Rodriguez leads Posada in rWAR 68.4 to 42.7. So Rodriguez put up impressive numbers before reaching his prime years.

Coming to the majors young is a good indicator of future greatness. The player gets more years to accumulate counting stats. In addition, to be major league ready at 19 or 20 requires talent, talent that usually keeps growing. Rodriguez is a great example of that.

November 21, 2016

Mets #2

The New York Times profiles John Ricco, the Mets assistant GM and right-hand man to the last three Mets general managers:

Other teams tried to lure Ricco as well. When Minaya became the general manager of the Montreal Expos in 2002, his first call was to Ricco. Finally, in 2004, Ricco interviewed with the Mets and accepted Duquette’s offer to become his assistant general manager.

“I was brought in more because they knew I had experience with the rules and contracts,” Ricco said. “Those were the two areas and still remain my bread and butter.”

After a 91-loss season, Duquette was pushed aside and replaced by Minaya. The Mets made splashes over the next two years, trading for Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca and signing Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner.

“He kept everything together when I was there and allowed me to go and pursue the talent,” Minaya said. “In a lot of ways, he was running the whole operation.”

I find it odd that someone so well respected did not move up to the GM position, either with the Mets or with another club. The Mets could rename positions to make Alderson president of baseball operations and Ricco GM, as a number of organizations do. Or it could be that Ricco likes a role where he doesn’t need to take the heat from the press and the fans.

November 20, 2016

Blast From the Past

At FanGraphs, David Laurila appears to have revived the old Peter Gammons Sunday notes column. Bud Black talks about Mike Scioscia in the lead:

“Mike is open,” said Black. “At times, people have said that he’s not, but believe me, Mike is open. I’d like to think I’m progressive enough to be open as well. Very open. The managers I know, my closest guys — Tito (Terry Francona), John Farrell, Joe Maddon, Mike — we all want to be educated on why. The last decade has taught all of us managers and coaches to be more curious than we ever were before. Times have changed.”

Of course, openness to new ideas is one thing, and implementation is another. Scioscia has seemingly made strides in both areas, with more room to grow in the latter. As for Black — his approach to analytics, and how he plans to implement them in Colorado — stay tuned. We’ll hear more from him in the coming week.

The column is full of great tidbits.

November 19, 2016

Big Difference from a Small Sample

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In looking at the Royals batting statistics for 2016, it struck me that the team did a great job of getting hits on balls in play with a .309 BABIP, but that was somewhat countered by their increased strikeouts during the season. Striking out 251 times more than they did in 2015 should have cost them around 75 hits. In fact, it only cost them 47 hits, but 49 runs. Was there some issue with the timing of the hits and strikeouts that made a big difference?

The answer turned out to be yes. In 2015, the Royals performed extremely well in a rather rare situation, hitting with a runner only on third. To be precise, one runner on base, and that runner on third. In their championship year, the Royals hit .358/.434/.543 in that situation with 19 K in 219 PA, producing 85 RBI. In 2016, their slash line dropped to .200/.271/.312 with 58 K in 199 PA, producing 52 RBI. The difference in RBI is 2/3 of the difference in runs scored between the two clubs. Nearly 16% of their increase in strikeouts came in just 1.6% of their plate appearances.

In 2015 and 2016, the Royals were excellent at putting the ball in play. About 200 PA in each season in a very specific situation made a huge difference in their overall offensive performance. It’s a reason they beat pundits forecasts in 2015, but lived up to them in 2016. There is a lot of luck built into a baseball season.

November 18, 2016

Poof Goes Plouffe

In a bit of a surprise, the Twins released Trevor Plouffe on Friday:

The Twins presumably shopped Plouffe around before making their move, and couldn’t find a taker — his salary likely played a role, as he could’ve made close to $10 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

I don’t think it was the money. Plouffe will likely be valued as a 1.5 to 2.0 WAR player, making him worth between $12 and $16 million as a free agent. So some team will get him without having to give up any players. This might actually help both sides monetarily. The Twins don’t have to pay the big arbitration salary, and Plouffe will likely make more money as a free agent.

November 18, 2016

The Bench Coach

Bud Black, the new manager of the Rockies, hired Mike Redmond as his bench coach. Redmond is one of many people to have managed the Miami Marlins:

Black said that Redmond “brings a lot of intensity and a strong work ethic; and as a great communicator, he is able to connect well with players.”

I’m not sure that should be the profile of the bench coach. To me, the bench coach should be a great tactician, and complement the manager’s weaknesses. In fact, dealing with the players should be a very minor part of the job. I don’t know how many managers fail on tactics; most fail on managing the personnel. Don Zimmer and Joe Torre made the perfect combination of manager and bench coach. Torre was superb at managing people, but not strategy. Zimmer was superb at strategy, but not managing people. They complemented each other perfectly. We’ll see if Black and Redmond can pull that off.

Update: Torey Lovullo did the same thing, hiring Ron Gardenhire as his bench coach. Lovullo is somewhat of a rookie manager, so having Gardenhire’s experience should help Lovullo with the little things managers learn from experience.

November 17, 2016

Wolff Steps Down

Lew Wolff is selling most of his stake in the Athletics, turning the team over to John Fisher, who becomes managing partner. The Athletics are also staying in Oakland:

The Oakland Athletics are staying put under new leadership and determined to find the right location for an intimate new ballpark that brings together the community with a great vibe for fans. One that will be privately funded and, in time, increase revenue and improve the on-field product.

It’s a big, bold plan. Committed new team President Dave Kaval just pulled off something similar in his other job: Building the San Jose Earthquakes’ second-year, state-of-the art Avaya Stadium, which just so happens to boast the largest outdoor bar in North America.

Kaval is eager to get started evaluating several sites, communicate with city and business leaders and even open his office for two hours a week to anyone who wants to chat about the plan for this low-budget franchise.

“I know they’re starving for a place to call home,” Kaval, also president of the MLS Earthquakes, said Thursday when he was formally introduced.

Wolff seemed to want to build more than just a stadium, he wanted to develop real estate that was anchored by a stadium. He could not pull off that move. Best of luck to Kaval and Fisher in their quest for a new stadium.

November 17, 2016

NL MVP

Kris Bryant wins the NL MVP Award with 29 of 30 first place votes. Congratulations to Bryant on the outstanding win and an outstanding follow up to a great rookie season.

Update: The vote is here. Anthony Rizzo finished fourth. Daniel Murphy and Corey Seager each received 11 second place votes and 10 third place votes. Murphy took the other first place vote to finish second.

November 17, 2016

The Other Way to Improve the Pitching Staff

Eno Sarris analyzes the Yankees and Astros deal that sends Brian McCann to Houston and pitching prospects Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman to New York:

With the framing and calling added in to his offense — projected to be league average compared to Castro’s 19% worse than league average — McCann is probably worth a win, win and a half at least next year. Move Gattis’ similar production to DH, and you’ve probably gained your team a win on the offensive side.

But this trade may have been as much about improving the pitching staff as it is about the offensive side of the ball. For the Astros — and their pitching staff — the hope is that McCann can still frame and call a good game as his offense falls off. It looks like that calling plus offense, on a two-year deal, was enough for them to move on to a new starting catcher.

Abreu is a high K, high BB walk pitcher so far in the minors. He’ll play 2017 as a 21-year-old, so he has time to find his control. If not, he may still end up as a quality reliever if he can keep the strikeouts up. Guzman is similar, but brought his K rate way up this season and look his walks down a notch. Sounds like a good trade for both teams, especially if they develop better control as they mature.

Update: The Astros also sign Josh Reddick to a four-year contract.

November 17, 2016

AL MVP Award

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Mike Trout wins the AL MVP Award for the second time. He received 19 first place votes. It’s his fifth straight season in the top two.

Update: The voting is here. The vote was fairly close, Trout winning 356-311 over Mookie Betts. Betts was one, two, or three on every ballot, while Trout received a fifth and a seventh place votes. Seems there are still writers who put the team above the player. David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre also received first place votes.

November 17, 2016

MVP Show

The AL and NL Most Valuable Player Awards show is about to start on MLB Network. In the AL, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout vie for the award. In the NL, Kris Bryant, rookie Corey Seager, and Daniel Murphy are up for the trophy.

My guess is that Bryant will win the NL Award easily. Trout should also win the award easily in the AL, but there seems to be some consensus that Betts will win. If you average together fWAR and bWAR, Trout comes out at 10 WAR, Betts at 8.7. Trout wins the offensive side of WAR easily, while Betts comes out on top on the defensive side. I would pick Trout, but we’ll see how the voters go.

The voters over the last decade seem to be moving away from the traditional stats, but the AL Cy Young vote yesterday made the writers look like they were back sliding. We’ll see if that is true with this vote as well.

November 17, 2016

Trading Votto

Redleg Nation examines the idea of the Reds trading Joey Votto. Right now, all signs point to no. He finds this quote from Reds GM Dick Williams:

“I certainly haven’t had any discussions with him about [waiving the no-trade],” Reds general manager Dick Williams told MLB Network last week at the General Managers Meetings. “When you have a player of that caliber, there’s always going to be that speculation and the questions out there in the industry. I can just tell you right now, I’m really comfortable with him in our lineup. I’m very happy with the contract we’ve got with him. He performed as well as he has in a long time, in recent years. I see him being at the center of our lineup and a guy we could really build around.”

Williams should be happy with the contract, as Votto is a five WAR player getting paid like a three WAR player. Of course, that’s the kind of contract that other teams would love too, and the kind of contract that might bring a haul in a trade. Williams’s statement above could be construed as a challenge to teams; if you want Votto, bring your best deal.

Votto’s age is the downside of the contract, however. He will play 2017 as a 33-year-old, meaning whoever might get him pays for his decline. Also, with the contract back-loaded, whatever team might acquire him will pay the bulk of the guaranteed money.

Votto appears to be a very smart player, and in 2016 made an important adjustment. He always produced a high BABIP, which was somewhat balanced by a high strikeout rate. He brought that K rate down this season, and posted the second highest BA of his MLB career. He did it without a loss of power, too. This was the Miguel Cabrera adjustment that led to a triple crown. If Votto continues to limit his Ks, he might do very well to hide his decline. Some team that is desperate to win now and needs a first baseman might do very well to send prospects to the Reds for Votto. He would need to produce 22 WAR over the remaining life of his contract to make the deal worthwhile. It seems like a good gamble to me.

November 16, 2016

Sore Spouse

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Kate Upton is more like Kate Upset at Justin Verlander‘s Cy Young loss. At least we now know for certain they consummated the marriage.

She also lashed out at Rick Porcello:

Sorry Rick but you didn't get any 1st place votes? you didn't win. #ByeFelicia @MLB keep up with the times and fire those writers

— Kate Upton (@KateUpton) November 16, 2016

Besides being wrong, I don’t think that’s going over well with other players. I assume Porcello and Verlander are former teammates, and I never heard of bad blood between them. I suspect when Verlander gets a chance (he’s in Rome right now), he’ll issue an apology.

November 16, 2016

The Value of the Borda Count

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MLB award voting uses a Borda Count. The idea behind the Borda count is to pick a good choice for a winner when there is no clear favorite. In those cases, the consensus second choice wins, as we saw in the AL Cy Young vote today, Wednesday. By ranking candidates, no one wins by a plurality. Justin Verlander received 14 first place votes, meaning most writers did not think he deserved the award. In fact, most of those who didn’t put him first, didn’t put him second either. On the other hand, 26 voters thought Rick Porcello was first or second. As a group, the community thought Porcello was the best pitcher, although individually few thought he was number one. In this case, the Borda count did it’s job of finding the consensus in a field where there were highly divergent views of the pitchers.

Update: It looks like everyone who ranked Corey Kluber and Zach Britton first ranked Porcello second. So if MLB used an instant runoff, Porcello would have won as well.

November 16, 2016

AL Cy Young Award

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Rick Porcello wins the AL Cy Young Award as the consensus second choice.

Update: Here is the vote. Justin Verlander received 14 first place votes, Porcello eight first place votes. The people who didn’t see Verlander first saw him way down ballot. Procello received 18 second place votes to win. Porcello wins 137 to 132 as two voters left Verlander off the ballot.

Zach Britton received five first place votes, which probably hurt Verlander as well. It looks like some writers are still voting based on wins.

November 16, 2016

NL Cy Young Award

Max Scherzer wins the NL Award. He’s on vacation, and the champagne shower knocks out Skype!

It’s Scherzer’s second Cy Young Award, having won it while with the Tigers.

Update: Here is the vote. It wasn’t close, as Max took 25 first place votes. Lester finished second with just one first place vote.

Clayton Kershaw did get some support, finishing fifth with two first place votes.