Monthly Archives: December 2016

December 31, 2016

Projecting Moustakas

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John Viril likes the chances of Mike Moustakas posting big numbers in 2017:

Over on Fangraphs.com, Randy Holt pointed out that Mike Moustakas suffered from an unusually bad Batting Average Balls in Play (BABIP) in his short 2016 season. Further, Moustakas’ plate discipline continued to improve with a low 11.5% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Moustakas’ hard-hit percentage zoomed to a career-high 37.4%. Even with the horrendous .214 BABIP, Moustakas managed a .801 OPS and a 110 OPS+ (10% better than a league average hitter).

That unusually low BABIP occurred despite Moustakas continuing to show that he had learned how to hit balls to the opposite field. While Moustakas is a guy that has posted low BABIPs throughout his career, his BABIP improved to .294 in 2015. That number is slightly below the .300 that most analysts consider average.

Moustakas also suffered from a death in the family as well as an injury.

If you look at his career, however, 2016 is much more in line with his career prior to 2015. Moustakas hit for a low BA, with a low OBP, and some power. Batted ball data show he reduced his likelihood of pulling the ball in 2016, something that he did carry over into 2016. In 2016, he started hitting fly balls with more authority, popping up less and leaving the park more.

I suspect, however, that going the other way stops working as well once the element of surprise is gone. Moustakas used to pull the ball a lot, and I suspect defenses played him that way. Once they knew he was using the whole field, the holes closed. He went back to being a low on-base hitter with some power.

Moustakas plays 2017 as a 28-year-old. He’s still at the top of his prime, so a return to his 2015 levels is quite possible. He adjusted in 2015 by going the other way. He adjusted in 2016 by improving his home run swing (in a small sample). Pitchers and defenses adjust, too. We’ll see if Moustakas can stay one step ahead of the competition. I would guess he posts a season better than his career averages, but not equal to his 2015 campaign. Musings Marcels has him at .258/.320/.436.

December 30, 2016

Cannizzaro Passes

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Chris Cannizzaro, an original Padres player and their first all-star, died at the age of 78:

Cannizzaro had a 13-year career as a catcher in the major leagues from 1960-74, playing for six different teams. He was honored by the Padres in a pregame ceremony over the summer during the run-up to the 2016 All-Star Game hosted at Petco Park.

Cannizzaro, 78, who lived in Rancho Penasquitos, had been suffering from emphysema in recent years.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Cannizzaro was also an original member of the Mets, playing 59 games for New York in their inaugural 1962 season. He didn’t last long enough to get drafted in 1977. 🙂 Offensively, he didn’t hit for a high average, but drew a good number of walks. He hit .235 for his career with a .319 OBP. (He did draw 35 IBB, which I take it to mean he was hitting in front of the pitcher frequently.) Although he made the All-Star team in 1969, 1970 would prove to be his best season as he posted a 2.3 rWAR.

He made a solid career as good backup catcher.

December 30, 2016

Brantley or No Brantley

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The Cleveland Indians differ with Jonah Keri on the extent and seriousness of Michael Brantley‘s injury:

Honestly, I would not expect the Indians — through official higher-ups or their social channels — to say anything differently. They’ve put the story out there that Brantley is on track, and there’s no reason to sway from that otherwise unless his shoulder detaches itself from Brantley and rockets itself into the sun. The fact that the Indians even bothered to respond is nice in itself.

It’s still worrying that the reports are out there, though, because the Indians clearly did not know just how extensive this injury was last season when they let him try and play for a handful of games.

The Indians played extremely well without Brantley, coming within a game of winning the World Series. Fans would like a healthy Brantley to help them win that extra game.

December 29, 2016

Thinking About Luck

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From time to time, I think about the batter-pitcher match-up (or batter-defense matchup) and how best to simulate the outcomes. Some games, like Strat-o-Matic, use fixed stats on batter and pitcher cards. It doesn’t matter how good the batter is if you roll on the pitcher card, and it doesn’t matter how bad the pitcher is if you roll on the batter card. A better way would be to generate Log5 probabilities for events based on the batter and pitcher/defense. So the probabilities of the outcomes adjust for each matchup, and random number determines the outcome.

The batter-pitcher match-up is more nuanced than that, however. I like to think of it as a collision of two probability distributions. For example, a batter reaching base has to do with the ability of the batter, represented by his OBP, and the ability of the pitcher/defense, represented by the pitcher’s OBP against. One might model those probabilities with spheres. They would be painted two colors, one color representing the batter reaching base (positive outcome for the batter, negative outcome for the pitcher), and one color representing the batter not reaching base (negative outcome for the batter, positive outcome for the pitcher). So the collision of the two probability distributions could be simulated by the collision of the two spheres.

There are four possible ways the spheres could collide:

  1. Batter reaches base for on both the batter and pitcher spheres.
  2. Batter is out on both the batter and pitcher spheres.
  3. Batter reaches on the batter sphere, does not reach on the pitcher sphere.
  4. Batter is out on the batter sphere, reaches on the pitcher sphere.

Now think of the four cases like this:

  1. The batter executes well, the pitcher/defense executes poorly, and the batter reaches base. Think of the pitcher throwing a hanging curve ball and the batter smashing it. In this case, the batter always reaches.
  2. The pitcher executes well, but the batter executes poorly. Think of the pitcher throwing a good four-seam fastball, and the batter popping it up. Or the pitcher throws a breaking ball that looks out of the strike zone, but comes back over the plate for a K. In this case, the batter never reaches.
  3. Both batter and pitcher execute well. The pitcher throws a good sinker, but the batter was ready for the pitch and golfs it.
  4. Both the batter and pitcher execute poorly. The pitcher throws a fast ball down the middle of the plate, but the batter doesn’t get the barrel of the bat on the ball.

In the last two cases, sometimes the batter reaches, and sometimes he doesn’t. These are the situations where the batter hits a line drive right at a fielder, or he pops a ball into no-man’s land for a single.

Take a batter with a .380 OBP, a pitcher with a .310 OBP against, and a league average OBP of .320. Log5 tells us the batter should get on base against this pitcher at a .366 clip. So where does the .366 come from? Look at the probabilities of the four cases above:

  1. Both reach: 0.080
  2. Neither reach: 0.490
  3. Batter and pitcher both execute: 0.300
  4. Neither batter nor pitcher executes: 0.130

So .286 of the .366 OBP comes from the two situations where some luck is involved. I suspect most of it comes from the third situation, where the batter executes well. Hitters like Ichiro Suzuki, however, who beat out weakly hit balls may get more from the fourth situation.

What should be clear is that there is a lot of opportunities for luck. In 600 PA, the results of 240 of them might go either way. That represents more than enough chances for good luck to lead to a career year, or bad luck to make one wonder what’s wrong with a player.

December 29, 2016

In the Hall

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Via BBTF, Ryan Fagan discusses his Hall of Fame ballot on the occasion of his first time voting. He makes a point that I’ve made before:

The second thing was this: It’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. It’s the reality of the “and Museum” part that surprised me a bit. The Gallery, where they have the plaques of enshrined players, managers and executives, is essentially completely separate from the museum. The truth is, Barry Bonds already is in the Hall of Fame. I took a picture of the ball he hit for his 756th home run, which was in a display case dedicated to Bonds’ achievement. Pete Rose already is discussed in the Hall of Fame. So is Shoeless Joe Jackson. Those guys don’t have plaques in the Gallery, of course, but they’re well-represented in the museum.

I used to make this point when someone brought up Roger Maris. If you visit the Hall of Fame, you learn about Roger Maris. Roger Clemens entered the Hall if 1986 when the game ball from his 20 strikeout game landed in Cooperstown. No one has been wiped from the museum. The arguments are about plaques.

The latest vote totals show Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines getting in, with Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez also pulling plenty of support. The firewall that was keeping Clemens and Barry Bonds out appears to have broken as well, as both are pulling 70% so far.

I believe there are a number of factors for the Bonds/Clemens increase:

  • There is an unofficial ranking of the players in the Hall based on the number of years on the ballot. If you make it the first year, you’re the cream of the crop. If you make it on the last ballot, you were borderline. It’s quite possible the writers see a five-year penalty for Bonds and Clemens as being enough, especially since the standard story is that these two were Hall of Famers before that started using PEDs in the late 1990s.
  • Some writers are using the excuse of Bud Selig’s election as a reason to vote for Bonds and Clemens. However, they don’t appear to be voting for Sammy Sosa, so again, there appears to be an exception based on the belief that the player would or would not have been a Hall of Famer without PEDs. Manny Ramirez is pulling many more votes that Sosa, despite actually failing drug tests. They may see Manny as a great player who game to PEDs late.
  • The newer writers coming online grew up with Bonds and Clemens as their stars. They don’t have the Henry Aaron blind spot.

I don’t think Bonds and Clemens will make it this year, but expect them to break the 75% barrier in the next two years.

December 28, 2016

The Compassion Position

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Jonathan Goehring makes an interesting observation about the Padres and Yangervis Solarte:

Solarte’s wife Yulianna passed away in September after a long battle with cancer. This tragedy is one which transcends baseball, and one that the Padres organization has treated with care and respect.

Solarte’s desires are not publicly known, but under circumstances such as these, they carry much heavier weight. This may explain why there hasn’t been a whole lot of talk lately about a possible trade, despite the fact that it would seem to make a lot of sense.

If Solarte would rather stay in San Diego and take care of his three young children, the Padres will likely honor his request not to be traded.

In a similar situation, Cleveland Indians’ infielder Mike Aviles was not traded while his daughter went through Leukemia. Even though it may have made sense for the Tribe to involve Aviles in a deadline deal, they put him and his family first.

Kudos to the Padres for putting the needs of a player first.

Solarte is a solid two-WAR player, early in his prime, so he will be valuable to some team. He is entering his first year of arbitration, so he poised to make about $6 million this season. That would certainly give him the means to take care of his family properly. I also suspect a team that wanted to acquire him might make accommodations for the children.

The Mets might be a good landing spot. David Wright‘s health is still questionable despite Sandy Alderson’s confidence. Solarte knows New York since he spent time with the Yankees. New York certainly offers the services Solarte needs to raise his children well.

December 27, 2016

Mighty Manfred

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Rob Manfred sat down with John Harper of the New York Daily News to discuss a number of issues, including pace of play.

What I found revealing was how Manfred got a bit agitated when I asked if he worried he might be messing with the fundamental nature of the sport by potentially implementing ideas such as a pitch clock, restrictions on the use of relievers, and curtailing the use of defensive shifts.

“Look,’’ he said, “people always posit these questions as: do you want to change the game? The fact of the matter is the game is changing on its own. You didn’t used to see this type of activity (managers using multiple relievers to match up against hitters).

“I think the issue for us is: it’s not change vs. no change. It’s change that’s organic or change that’s managed, and I do believe we need to manage the way the game is changing a little more aggressively.’’

The winning way may not be the entertaining way. I would personally like to see a rule that says a reliever is expected to finish an inning, and can only be removed if he allows a base runner (and I’m willing to count batters who reach on an error or a failed fielder’s choice).

On the the other hand, the game may be moving that way. More and more teams are designating a seventh, eighth, and ninth inning pitcher. Each starts their designated inning and only comes out if they get in trouble. Reliever use may be evolving in the direction Manfred wants.

December 26, 2016

Barfield Killed

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An acquaintance murder former pitcher John Barfield after an argument:

Barfield, 52, died on Christmas Eve after he was shot in the 500 block of Sherman Street in downtown Little Rock earlier Saturday, police said. His death is the 41st homicide of the year for Little Rock.

Police arrested William Goodman, 59, of Pine Bluff in the death. Goodman has been charged with first-degree murder. He was being held without bail in the Pulaski County jail Sunday evening.

According to an arrest report, Goodman, an acquaintance of Barfield, went to Barfield’s residence on Sherman Street on Christmas Eve.

The two men got into a fight, and Goodman fired a handgun at Barfield, according to the report.

“I’m devastated,” said Barfield’s sister, Debra Hudson, on Sunday night.

My thoughts go out to Barfield’s family and friends.

Barfield’s major league career was short, three seasons that covered 139 1/3 innings, mostly in relief. He showed great control, walking just 39 batters. His strikeout rate was very low, however, and that led to batters hitting him well. It’s a senseless tragedy.

The link came via the Sporting News.

December 26, 2016

Money and the Cardinals

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Via BBTF, Derrick Goold takes a look at the Cardinals finances and shows that they have some money to spend. Cardinals fans seem upset that the team did not spend the money on Edwin Encarnacion:

The tumult and consternation about the slugger has it wrong. The Cardinals, according to a source, had “mild” interest in him. A short-term, high-salary deal seemed most likely, if one was of interest at all. It became clear his market didn’t soften that much. The Cardinals don’t discuss specific free agents, so it’s only possible to speculate they didn’t see a fit, not for his glove or not for that commitment. They have the money to spend, can spend, should spend. It’s clear in this case, they didn’t have the want, not for this player or not for this player at that price.

The Cardinals are not going to be the George Steinbrenner Yankees, where the team just throws money at free agents and then sorts out what works later. While it can work, it’s an inefficient way to build a team, and sometimes it results in a good, but not great team. Sometimes, like in the late 1980s and early 1990s, it crashes into mediocrity. The Cardinals will do just fine, and they will save their powder for players that really help.

With lots of teams doing that, when real talent comes on the market, the bidding war will be quite interesting.

December 25, 2016 December 24, 2016

Stottlemyre Ill

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Best wishes go out to Mel Stottlemyre this Christmas.

Former New York Yankees pitcher Mel Stottlemyre is in the hospital “fighting for his life,” according to his son Todd in a Facebook post Friday.

Mel Stottlemyre started the first game I ever attended, a game at Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox in September of 1969. I don’t remember much of the game, although the Yankees won in a walk-off win. I do remember Stottlemyre, who was a pretty good hitter for a pitcher, hitting a triple and being driven in by Horace Clarke. I was also excited to see Thurman Munson start the game, as he was a September call up. Munson wound up with the game winning hit in the game.

December 23, 2016

The Big Inning of the Ender

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Ender Inciarte and the Braves made a good deal:

This is the type of deal you do with a good player. The Braves buy out Inciarte’s arbitration years and his first year of free agency. The Braves get the rest of his prime, his best years, at a very low price. He’s a three-WAR player who hasn’t peaked, so one very good year from Inciarte pays for the contract. Neither side needs to spend any time preparing for arbitration. Inciarte, if he is prudent, should bank about $10 million by the end of the deal. The income from that will leave him set for life. If he remains a three-war player through the contract, he’ll have a very nice pay-off in free agency. It’s a very nice Christmas present.

December 23, 2016

Indians Land a Slugger

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The Cleveland Indians agreed to a contract with free agent Edwin Encarnacion. Terry Pluto notes how well the Indians played this deal:

But suddenly, the huge spending for big bats just stopped.

Meanwhile, the Indians had targeted Encarnacion as the kind of acquisition that could help them return to the World Series.

But they were not going to spring for a four-year deal.

So they kept talking to his agent, and also kept waiting before settling on a three-year, $60 million deal with a fourth-year option for $25 million.

The Indians probably could have signed Mike Napoli to some type of two-year deal. Or they could have settled for someone such as Chris Carter or Adam Lind on a one-year contract.

But they wanted more.

They wanted an impact hitter for the next few seasons. The front office also was armed with extra cash from the Dolan family.

The Indians got off cheap. I’d expect Encarnacion to provide about 10.8 WAR over three years, 13.7 WAR over four years. That’s $5.55 million per WAR for the three year deal, $6.2 million per WAR for the four year deal. There is a big risk for the Indians, however, as Encarnacion will play 2017 as a 34-year-old. At that age, a career can go south at any time. If Cleveland gets one four-WAR season and a World Championship it will be worth it. This is not the time for Cleveland to hold back. They barely lost to the Cubs in the World Series. It’s time to go to the next level.

December 22, 2016

Eliminate the Draft

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Jonathan Bernhardt is worried about tanking:

This year, the White Sox, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Diego, and probably Minnesota — along with Tampa Bay, which continues along with a bottom-three payroll year-in and year-out — are all planning to some large degree not to contend. Atlanta is at least signing pitchers they can get innings out of and flip at the deadline; Philadelphia’s rotation is actually half-decent, and they might be good next year. But every team which views its goal at the major league level this season as ‘get a high draft position’ rather than ‘win baseball games’ makes the next team to embrace that same goal less likely to succeed.

And that’s without reckoning with the moral component. It’s worth remembering that we’re essentially soberly nodding here and saying that it’s alright for teams to intentionally throw entire seasons. That’s what trading Manny Machado and blowing up the Orioles’ core on the heels of an 89-win season is; it’s throwing the season. If it’s done mid-July as part of a full-on firesale instead of during the winter, then it’s throwing the next season, and likely the season after that. It is not trying your hardest to win baseball games on an administrative level.

Players who engaged in that sort of behavior on the field would be blacklisted, and rightfully so; it’s insulting to the fans who pay money to watch the game, and it’s fundamentally anti-competitive behavior. Yet more and more, this is the expected behavior of front offices around the league.

It is amazing to me how many problems the draft creates. At this point, no draft and universal free agency would produce a much better system, once that would be tougher to game. Teams would not be able to hoard players, since players blocked in a system would go somewhere else when their contract was up. Plenty of trades would take place. There would be no incentive to tank. Front offices would need to work harder, but instead of trying to find ways to game the draft, they could simply be doing player evaluation. Free movement of players is good, and both sides should embrace the concept.

December 22, 2016

Measuring Defense

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Jesse Spector pens an excellent piece on resistance to defensive metrics. Players talk about how these metrics don’t match what they see in certain players, and things the stats might be missing. Joe Maddon talks about using them the predict who will be good, rather than measuring who already is good. Once place where they are being put to good use is positioning defenders, as pointed out by Denard Span:

“When I come up to hit, guys are standing basically where I hit the ball, my hot spots, and that makes it more difficult to hit,” says Giants center fielder Denard Span. “Defensively, they put you in better positions. … The game has changed. From my rookie year to now, there was no such thing a UZR. Then the WAR started. People weren’t sold on it. Now you see teams swearing by it, and guys are getting paid by their WAR and not their actual numbers like before. I don’t get it, but I don’t get paid to get it.”

I’ll also note that in most cases, at the core defensive positions up the middle, the difference between the 30 starters is pretty small. When I watch a minor league game, what usually stands out to me is the defense. Often players don’t make the plays you take for granted at the big leagues. So when analysts put a negative number next to one of the best defenders in the world, it doesn’t sit well. Maybe we just need to express the number in a different way, do there is no minus sign.

December 21, 2016

The Waiting Game

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David Schoenfield at ESPN.com looks at the reasons why free agents seem to be staying on the market longer this season. He makes some solid points, from free agents over valuing their talent to clubs preferring younger players at less money. Once reason he leaves out, however, is that the best deals happen at the last minute. That’s true for both sides. So waiting for a deal close to what you want is the best strategy.

December 21, 2016

Better Ownership

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Jason Burke likes what he sees so far after a change at the top of the ownership pyramid in Oakland. New owner Dave Kaval is doing a better job communicating with fans, starting with emails:

First off, it’s from Kaval himself. He begins by talking about what a whirlwind the last month has been for him since he took over, and how his new position is such an honor. It also includes some gentle ribbing of the cross-bay Giants. He then mentions one of the standouts from his office hours, which is a very cool thing that Kaval is getting started. Every Tuesday fans can come in for a couple of hours and just speak their mind, which, if you’re familiar with A’s fans, they will. He then leaves his e-mail address where you can schedule your appointment for a future meeting with him.

He then continues, “One of the best parts of meeting with fans is getting new ideas and putting them into action.” He states that FanFest moving to nearby Jack London Square was actually an idea brought on by one of these fan interactions, so maybe the front office is listening after all.

So far, so good.

December 21, 2016

Lining Up the Dodgers

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Howard Cole looks at a potential Dodgers batting order with Brian Dozier at second base. He makes the bold move of batting Joc Pederson leadoff:

Andrew Toles is a better match for the leadoff role (.365 L.A. on base percentage in 2016, .348 lifetime OBP in minors) and more than one of my colleagues expects Dave Roberts to go that route. But I don’t buy the notion that Andre Ethier will see much action in right field going forward, and he shouldn’t. My guess is Ethier gets the nod in left, with Yasiel Puig in right to start the season against all comers, and Toles coming off the bench.

And if that’s how it shakes out — minus a trade for genuine leadoff man Ian Kinsler to play second base — Pederson, with his .349 career OBP, is the guy.

I like that, too. Pederson is a high strikeout, high power hitter, but he also does a great job of getting on base. The strikeouts won’t cost much at the top of the order, as fewer runners will be on base. He’ll lead-off a number of games with home runs as well.

The Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) likes Pederson, too. That’s based on the 2017 Musings Marcels. Note the Marcels rate Yasiel Puig higher than Cole does. At his age, there’s still potential for Puig to be a great hitter.

December 20, 2016

Baseball Bastards

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I finally got around to watching The Battered Bastards of Baseball on Netflix Monday night. I would highly recommend it to any baseball fan, or fans of Bing Russell or Kurt Russell. It’s the story of the Portland Mavericks, an independent A-Ball team that replaced the AAA Beavers when they moved north to Washington state. At the time, they were the only independent team in minor league baseball.

One thing that the documentary didn’t explain, however, was why the team did so well in terms of winning games. The narrative of the film is that this group of castoffs, playing for the only independent minor league team in the country, could beat the prospects hand picked by major league clubs. The major leagues must have missed something in releasing this talent. I think the truth is a bit simpler. Many of the Mavericks better players were veteran minor leaguers. They were released but still in or near their primes. Their competition at A Ball was raw talent, players between 18 and 21 years of age. Imagine a AA team getting to play a season against A-Ball talent. That was pretty much the reason for why the team did so well. It wasn’t that MLB didn’t judge the talent correctly, the talent on the Mavericks was simply better due to age and experience.

Nonetheless, the Mavericks made baseball fun again in Portland, so much so that three years later the Beavers moved back. It’s a great piece of baseball history, so watch it when you get the chance.

December 20, 2016

Buchholz to the Phillies

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The Red Sox pretty much let Clay Buchholz go today, trading him to the Phillies for a minor league infielder named Josh Tobias. Tobias played well at A ball the last two seasons, but is old for that level. He will give them some system depth, since Dustin Pedroia‘s health can be variable. I wouldn’t expect to see Tobias in the majors, but if Boston has to start moving second basemen around, he’s a decent player to fill in at a higher level.

Paul Swydan looks at what this means for the Red Sox rotation:

What this leaves the Red Sox is a situation that may not be wholly unique, but is certainly enviable. While the identity of the fifth starter may not be completely clear now or even by Opening Day, the Red Sox now have six starters who are capable of handling a full starter’s workload. Rodriguez figures to be a full-time starter because he has been exclusively a starter in his career, but in Pomeranz and Wright, the Red Sox have two pitchers who have proved to be weapons in both starting and relief roles.

It makes me wonder if the Red Sox start experimenting, playing with a six-man rotation, or using two starters in a game, splitting the innings.

George Stockburger sees the Phillies as having a logjam of pitchers, although many are still developing. I suspect the Phillies are hoping for three good months from Buchholz, and one or two of their minor league pitchers become major league ready. That would allow the Phillies to flip Buchholz to fill some holes while bringing up the future of the rotation.

The Red Sox get rid of a player they don’t need, and the Phillies take a chance on a possible turnaround. There’s not much downside for either club.

December 20, 2016

Typing a Hitter

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Tom Tango reviews Radial wOBA, but makes an important point about wOBA in general:

But, is that the most interesting thing we can do here? What would you prefer, a hitter’s batting average or the individual components of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR? How about his slugging, or the 4 individual components? How about wOBA or his 4 individual components?

Some people may suggest they’d prefer the wOBA. And that’s certainly possible and understandable. Because sometimes you don’t want to know more. Whenever you present a single number encapsulation of a set of components, the conversation ends. What you will have done is taken a series of data points, merged them into one, and… present it. It just ends there because you can no longer unravel it otherwise.

I like numbers that draw a picture of a player, which is why I prefer slash lines to wOBA. If I want a single number for a player, I’d rather see something like runs created per game or wins above replacement, because to me, those are more useful numbers. If I have nine players and their runs created, I can approximate how many runs a team should score. If I have WAR, I can approximate how many games should win. wOBA does provide a nice measure of the quality of a player, but it’s a black box quality. I want to know how the player gets there.

Back to Radial wOBA for a minute. Add a second radial component, the directional angle, and you have the basis for a good probabilistic range system.

December 19, 2016

The Price of Players

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Kudos to Matt Snyder for debunking the idea that baseball players are overpaid:

By no means do I think that the average fan who feels he’s being priced out shouldn’t complain. Go ahead and complain away. I’m just telling those who wish to complain to remember that the player salaries aren’t the reason. It’s the game’s wild popularity and people’s willingness to pay the huge prices that are pricing you out, not the salaries.

Salaries follow ticket prices, not the other way around. He also makes this point on why we seem obsessed with sports salaries:

How often do you actually see salaries anywhere but in sports? We report on contracts as part of our day-to-day operations as baseball writers, but that doesn’t seem to happen in other industries. Maybe people only complain mostly because these are the only gigantic salary figures they’re seeing on a daily basis and would nail actors/musicians more if they saw it more often?

Of course, actor salaries are tied to particular projects, especially since the demise of the studio system. Plenty of actors get one big paycheck, only to never see another one the rest of their careers. If someone can hang around baseball for three or four years, they are likely set for life.

December 19, 2016 December 19, 2016

Managers and Agents

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I didn’t realize that player agents communicate with field managers. Here’s Jeff Banister on that relationship:

One thing I’ll tell you, being the manager of a team, that relationship with a player needs to stay one direction and that’s about playing the game of baseball. It is a relationship and a growing relationship. It’s not a contract relationship. That’s why you have a front office and a general manager and that’s why agents communicate with them. But there are a number of agents out there that I do talk to and there is an open line of communication with me about their players just because if there’s something going on that a player wants to talk to his agent about and they communicate that to me then I’m okay with that.”

That makes sense. An agent helps smooth out communications. A player might go an agent and rant and rave about a problem. The agent goes to the manager or the GM and explains the problem in a constructive way. Likewise, the manager or GM might rant and rave to the agent about the player, and the agent presents the problems to the player in a more positive light. This is why players and teams avoid arbitration hearings. The team talks the player down in front of the player, which is not pleasant for either side.

December 18, 2016

Tax Happy

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Raising Matt Cain expresses happiness at the Giants are paying the competitive balance tax:

Big payroll, big expectations, wouldn’t you say?

Indeed. If you are paying the competitive balance tax, your team should be good enough to be competitive. Right now, the Yankees, Tigers, and Giants don’t really fit the bill. In the case of the Yankees and Tigers, spending big on players to win now sometimes leaves you holding the bag as those players decline. I’ve heard more than one Yankees fan wish that the boss was still in charge of the Yankees, as he would not have let the team slide this much. He would keep spending to keep winning.

The Yankees tax is equivalent to the salary of a three or four WAR player. That might have been enough to have put them in the playoffs in 2016.

December 17, 2016

A New Carew

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Rod Carew survived his heart and kidney transplant surgery:

“We are overwhelmed with emotions right now — joy, relief, excitement and especially gratitude for all the doctors and nurses who have been with us at every step in this journey, and to the donor who made this possible,” Carew’s wife, Rhonda, told American Heart Assn. News.

I wish him many more years. It’s also good to know that someone who likely died tragically lives on in Carew.

December 16, 2016

Chapman’s Complaint

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Aroldis Chapman felt he was misused in game six of the World Series. He came on in the seventh inning, the Cubs holding a 7-2 lead. He had thrown 42 pitches two nights earlier in game five.

To Chapman’s credit, he also told reporters he never told Maddon he disagreed with his usage and felt it was his job to be ready whenever the team asked him to pitch. As he should have been. It’s the World Series and teams are going to lean on their top relievers more than ever.

Ask any reliever and they’ll tell you they appreciate knowing their role and exactly when they’ll pitch. Guys like Miller, who are flexible enough to pitch at any point in the game, are very rare. Most are like Chapman and appreciate having a set role. Baseball players are creatures of habit, and when you don’t know when you’re going to enter a game, it disrupts your routine.

I suspect Chapman is complaining now to try to prevent this kind of use in the future.

December 15, 2016 December 15, 2016

An Early Look at the Hall

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The 2017 Hall of Fame Tracker is up and running, with Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines doing well in the extremely early public voting. Daniel Marks at Bill James Online does some analysis (subscription required):

The really interesting thing to me is the change in individual votes vs. prior years. For example, one of the things the Tracker does is compare how players have fared with returning voters. Both Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, so far, have gained 5 votes from voters who did not select them a year ago (they also both lost 1 vote from a returning voter).

Among the voters who have changed their minds on Bonds and Clemens, at least one has said that he’s tired of being the “morality police”, and another one referenced the fact that Bud Selig was just named to the Hall of Fame (through the recent “Today’s Game” committee selection), and felt that it was hypocritical to have Selig in the Hall but keep players such as Bonds and Clemens out. I think you’re likely to hear more and more voters express one or both of those sentiments as they continue to comment on their ballot selections.

In any event, I think the early voting on Bonds and Clemens implies that this will be their best years ever on the ballot, and I suspect that they will end up with more than 50% of the vote. I didn’t go quite that high in my contest entry (I had them both in the 47-48% range), but I think this may be the year that they cross over into the “majority” of ballots. That doesn’t mean they’ll get in this year or even before their time is up on the BBWAA ballots, but I do think the tide is turning.

My guess is that there are a number of voters who have wanted to vote for Bonds and Clemens for a long time, and now they have an excuse. If support keeps building this year, more voters might flip quickly, and we might see them race to the top in a couple of years.

December 14, 2016

He’s Obnoxious and Disliked

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I have to disagree with Steve Contursi a bit about why Jose Bautista remains unsigned:

The reason why free agent Jose Bautista has not been signed has nothing to do with baseball, nothing to do with the fact that he’s 36, and nothing to do with the price tag of $100 million that he pinned on himself. Instead, it’s all about Bautista, or “Joey Bats” as he likes to be called these days.

It’s about him and what’s becoming more obvious every day, that he’s the fingernails on the chalkboard, and a good number of people in baseball are simply tired of his act and want nothing to do with him.

I think it has everything to do with the first three things. In 2016, Bautista missed 1/3 of a season and his OPS dropped 100 points. When that happens to someone in their age 35 season, it may be a sign of a declining career. At this point, some team might pay him like a 1.5 WAR player and hope for the best, maybe $36 million for three years. The $100 million price tag is too much of a risk right now.

Being disliked doesn’t help, but plenty of unlikable players earned big money in baseball. Dan Duquette helped drive Bautista’s price down with his pronouncement that Orioles fans would not like him. If his price gets a lot more reasonable, however, I could see Duquette making an offer for one or two years.