Monthly Archives: November 2017

November 30, 2017

First of Many?

Gregg Zaun is the latest broadcaster to get the boot.

“This week, we received complaints from multiple female employees at Sportsnet regarding inappropriate behaviour and comments by Gregg Zaun in the workplace,” Brace said in the statement. “After investigating the matter, we decided to terminate his contract, effective immediately. This type of behaviour completely contradicts our standards and our core values.

I suspect former players in broadcasting will prove a target-rich environment.

November 29, 2017

Opposition Batting Marcels

When the Musings Marcels for 2018 came out last week, some readers wondered if there would be pitching Marcels this year. The pitching Marcels as developed by Tom Tango are much more complicated, so I have not taken the time to implement them. This year, however, the thought occurred to simply flip the batting Marcels and publish Opposition Batting Musings Marcels (OBMM) for 2018. Instead of predicting wins, losses, games started, etc, OBMM strives to show a pitcher’s season from a batter’s perspective.

The main changes from the formula for batters is in the reversing of the aging effect (except for strikeouts) and the calculation of plate appearances (batters facing pitcher). The new formula tends to overestimate the playing time of relievers, and may underestimate the playing time of starters. The formula is One year ago PA * 0.65 + Two years ago PA * 0.06 + 107. That comes from a regression analysis of 10000 pitcher seasons, with the constants rounded a bit.

The spreadsheet also contains estimates of innings pitcher, runs allowed per nine innings, and FIP.

The purpose is to serve as a guide, not an exact prediction. Batters are projected to hit .217/.268/.357 against Corey Kluber. If they hit anywhere close to that, Kluber will have a very good year. Ubaldo Jimenez should post an opposition slash line of around .276/.350/.462. He probably won’t survive another year in the majors with that kind of pitching.

Please let me know what you think, or if you have any suggestions.

November 28, 2017

The Stanton Negotiations

There is a new twist to the Giancarlo Stanton trade talks, the Marlins willingness to keep Stanton and trade away the rest of the stars:

According to two sources with knowledge of discussions, the Marlins informed Stanton in October that if he refused to waive his no-trade rights and accept a trade, he would remain a Marlin and team officials would look to trade off other top players to reduce payroll.

While it wasn’t presented to Stanton as an ultimatum, one source said, it shows that the Marlins aren’t without leverage in their efforts to deal Stanton and relieve them of the financial burden he brings. Stanton has said he doesn’t wish to be part of a rebuild.

So which would be better for the Marlins, keeping one superstar and building around him, or keeping a few good players and building around them? If the Marlins can get a number of good, near MLB ready players for the others, in a couple of years with Stanton they could be very good. A good GM could fill in the pieces pretty quickly.

November 28, 2017

Lost? Try Page Six

Page Six of the New York Post puts Matt Harvey back in the spot light as he dates internet model Kristina Krishka. Normally I don’t care about these things, but the Post wins best line of the off-season so far:

Krishka and reps for the Mets did not get back to us. But if this thing works out, the duo can start their own Harvey-Krishka movement.

I can just see Harvey pitching next year with his pony tail hanging out the hole in the back of his cap.

November 27, 2017

The Case Against the Hall

Paul Swydan suggests that the Hall of Fame is not worth our time:

I’m not suggesting everyone should cease attempting to identify baseball’s top players or most influential figures. History is important. I just don’t think that the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum should be the focus of this attention or serve as the arbiter of these decisions. One thing that struck me repeatedly while reading Jay Jaffe’s book, The Cooperstown Casebook, earlier this year is just how relentlessly the Hall of Fame has failed at the task of electing the best players to its institution.

I try not to get to upset or happy about Hall of Fame votes. This is a tough period for the voters as they try to infer who was a great player versus who was a great player because of help from drugs. It seems to me lately the writers are getting the top tier correct, electing many players on first ballots who clearly should be in the Hall. (Can anyone imagine not electing Yogi Berra on the first ballot today?)

Peter Gammons made a good point about the Hall of Fame in his discussion of Joe Morgan‘s issues today. It’s a point I used to make in respect to Roger Maris:

It doesn’t mean that anyone named in the Mitchell Report or who tested positive is therefore banished from the game for life. To the contrary—there are nearly 15 people named by Mitchell who have been coaching, advising, broadcasting and representing players over the last two years. Morgan’s contention is that there is a difference between Mark McGwire being a great, tireless coach and player advocate and being elected to The Hall. It does not in any way demean McGwire’s sincere contributions to the game and to so many who play it. He has a place in the museum, just not in the lineup of plaques.

Maris was in the Hall for his 61 home run feat, as are McGwire and Barry Bonds for their home run feats.

In addition, it strikes me that there is a good discussion about players. Fans interact with voters through web sites, voters interact with each other through their work in the media, and all make their opinions known. Minds are swayed in each direction. I think the voting process is getting better, but no process is going to produce a result that pleases everyone.

November 27, 2017

Players Don’t Usually Retire

Andre Ethier denies reports that he is going to retire:

Ethier told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that a report from FanRag Sports’ Robert Murray stating he planned to call it a career is “totally untrue.” Ethier added that his back is healthy and he’s preparing to play next season.

Very few players actually retire, meaning they voluntarily leave the game when a team still wants their services. Most who announce a retirement are in the position that no team wants their services, so they face reality and move on to their post-baseball life.

November 26, 2017

Half War Pitcher

Reports indicate the Texas Rangers signed Doug Fister to a one-year, $4 million contract:

Claimed off waivers in late May because the Boston Red Sox were in need of pitching depth, Fister helped secure his new deal for 2018 by putting together a solid seven-start stretch in the middle of last season.

The Rangers may not have a lot of confidence in that seven game stretch, so they are paying Fister for about a 1/2 WAR season. If he indeed improved, he’ll pitch for a much better salary in the future, although the Rangers have an option for 2019. There’s no downside to the deal for the Rangers, and plenty of upside.

November 26, 2017

Cold Hot Stove

George Steinbrenner did not believe in time off, which is one of the reasons I miss him. If the biggest story of the weekend was a player sending out a survey to teams, Steinbrenner would have signed a free agent, or fired someone, just to make news.

Fortunately, we have Dave Laurila and his Sunday notes column. His lead discusses the optimism of Reds general manager Dick Williams about the Cincinnati rotation:

“If you look at their last eight starts, Romano and Castillo had ERAs under 3.00,” Williams told me. “Mahle made four starts at the big-league level and his ERA was 2.70. That’s a really encouraging finish for those guys. A lot of our young pitchers made progress over the course of the season.”

This table shows the Reds pitchers over the final quarter of the season. Luis Castillo did pitch brilliantly, with a low ERA, a high strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and just two home runs allowed in 29 innings. The other young starters did indeed have low ERAs, but also appeared to have some weaknesses in their three true outcomes, either with a low strikeout rate or a high walk rate.

What they all did, however, was keep the ball in the park. That should be a reason for optimism. Great American Ballpark tends to favor home run hitters, so if the Reds are developing a staff that prevents home runs, that should be an advantage for the team. They can survive higher walk rates or more balls in play if the ball stays in the park.

I will also note these pitchers tended not to go very deep in games. The Reds appeared to be pulling them before they could get in trouble. There is nothing wrong with that. The pitchers go into the winter with a positive view of how they finished the season. They can build on that in 2018. The Reds found pitchers that fit their park, and gave them a chance to experience success. Well done.

November 24, 2017

More Money

Once again, MLB set a record for revenue in a season:

Major League Baseball continues to hit home runs on the business side. According to sources at the league, 2017 marks the 15th consecutive year MLB has seen record gross revenues, surpassing the $10 billion mark for the first time. By comparison, the league saw revenues approaching $9.5 billion at the end of the 2015 season.

The growth is due in large part to baseball’s compelling postseason play over the last several years, media rights—both traditional television and digital–and continued labor peace.

What to do with all that money? I say pay the hitters and pitchers to play faster.

Hat tip BBTF.

November 23, 2017 November 22, 2017

Musings Marcels 2018

Musings Marcels for 2018 for batters are now available. You can copy or download the data for your fantasy needs. The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (or Marcels for short) was invented by Tom Tango, and here is his explanation.

I like to look at the leader boards as predicted by the Marcels to see if anything surprising comes up. For batting average, Jose Altuve leads the majors with a .328 mark, but in the NL, DJ LeMahieu takes the title at .312. The NL race is very tight, with five players between .307 and .312, with second place in the AL goes to Mike Trout at .305.

For OBP, Joey Votto leads the majors at .429, with Mike Trout coming in second and first in the AL at .422. Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper are the only other players predicted to top .400. Trout pops to the top of the list for slugging percentage at .577, with Nolan Arenado leading the NL at .569. Aaron Judge projects to be second in the AL at .567.

The hit leaders project to be Jose Altuve at 178 and Charlie Blackmon at 173. Doubles go to Jose Ramirez in the AL with 42 and Daniel Murphy in the NL with 39. Mookie Betts comes in second in the AL, also with 39. Blackmon leads the majors with eight triples, while Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and Dee Gordon all come in with seven.

The home run leader board puts Giancarlo Stanton at the top with 42, with Khris Davis and Aaron Judge tied for second at 36. If Stanton stays in the National League, those are your league leaders. The next closest NL hitters would be Arenado at 34 home runs.

Votto rules the walk world with 105, Aaron Judge leading the AL with 88.

Here are slash lines for some of the top free agent hitters:

  • Lorenzo Cain: .290/.350/.438
  • Eric Hosmer: .293/.359/.467
  • Carlos Santana: .251/.356/.444
  • Mike Moustakas: .271/.325/.488
  • Eduardo Nunez: .291/.332/.440
  • Zack Cozart: .269/.340/.470
  • J.D. Martinez: .291/.358/.564

Enjoy your research!

November 22, 2017

The Full Braves Story

Here is the full story on the Braves malfeasance:

The Braves lost 13 prospects and former general manager John Coppolella was banned for life by Major League Baseball on Tuesday for circumventing international signing rules from 2015-17.

Former Atlanta special assistant Gordon Blakeley, who was the team’s international scouting chief, was suspended from baseball for one year by Commissioner Rob Manfred.

Sanctions imposed by Manfred leave the Braves unable to bargain at full strength for a top Latin American prospect until 2021.

Manfred said MLB’s investigation determined the Braves funneled extra signing bonus money to five players in 2015-16 by giving the funds first to another player considered a foreign professional under baseball’s rules and having the money redistributed to the other five. If the money had been counted for the other five, the Braves would have exceeded their pool by more than 5 per cent and been restricted to signing bonuses of $300,000 or under for international amateurs through June 15, 2019.

Banned for life. That’s Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson territory. It is very clear that MLB believes the Braves didn’t just make a mistake or try to find a loophole in the rule. This was a premeditated flaunting of the rules.

November 21, 2017

Ohtani Boy, The Hype, The Hype is Calling

The posting system lives long enough to bring Shohei Ohtani and a big pay day to the Fighters:

MLB, NPB, and the MLBPA agreed to a new posting system prior to tonight’s deadline, according to multiple reports. Ohtani will be grandfathered in under the old posting agreement this offseason, meaning the Nippon Ham Fighters will receive a $20M release fee. The new posting agreement will take effect next offseason.

Joel Sherman has the details of the new posting rates:

I don’t think Ohtani will be a two-way player in MLB. There is just too much specialization and preparation needed for a batter or a pitcher. If he were to pitch and hit, he might be better off in the AL where he would serve as the designated hitter in games he did not pitch. However, the team would lose the DH in games in which he did pitch and came out early (even if he moves to another position). My guess is that whoever signs him will minimize the two way playing, deciding which is more valuable, batting or pitching.

November 21, 2017

Another Data Point

Aaron Judge underwent shoulder surgery:

American League Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Monday, but he is expected to be ready for the beginning of spring training, the New York Yankees announced.

The procedure involved a loose-body removal and cartilage cleanup, the team said.

Judge, 25, played down the impact of his shoulder issues during his slump that began the second half, but there was suspicion that the shoulder could be bothering him.

It does seem like major slumps have an associated injury. The Yankee might have been better off putting Judge on the DL early in August for two weeks to give the shoulder a chance to heal.

November 21, 2017

Free Braves!

MLB brings the hammer down on the Braves.

Following an investigation that cost general manager John Coppolella and scout Gordon Blakeley their jobs and led indirectly to the resignation of president of baseball operations John Hart, MLB determined the Braves had broken rules – the most severe of which was the packaging of signing bonuses – in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 international signing periods. Nine players from the Braves’ 2016-17 signing class, the majority of whom received bonuses in excess of $1 million, will be declared free agents, as will three players from the most recent class. Atlanta also will lose a draft pick next June for trying to induce a player this year with off-the-books perks, sources told Yahoo Sports.

The biggest name is the 17-year-old Maitan, a switch-hitting shortstop from Venezuela who signed for $4.25 million and was one of the most highly touted prospects from Latin America in the last decade. He will be eligible to sign with the 29 other teams, who will be able to use leftover money from the current international signing period or dip into their 2018-19 bonus pools to sign the ex-Braves, a source familiar with the penalties said. Each of the players will be forced to use an agent different than the buscon, or trainer, who negotiated the original deals.

Atlanta, limited to spending a maximum of $300,000 for a player in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 signing periods, will face severe penalties in the two periods thereafter, according to sources. In 2019-20, Atlanta will be restricted from spending more than $10,000 per player – and will be banned from signing Robert Puason, the 14-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic with whom the Braves had struck a deal deemed illegal because of his age. Come 2020-21, the Braves will lose half their signing-bonus pool, which is expected to be $4.75 million.

I don’t remember problems like this when teams were allowed to treat international players as free agents and could sign them for what the market would bear. The rules were put in place because some teams were spending “Too Much Money” (TM). So now teams are trying to circumvent the rules and getting in trouble. Maybe MLB should rethink these restrictions and let teams spend what they want. The current rules are creating criminals.

November 21, 2017

The Twenty Second Clock

It looks like the 20-second clock will be introduced for the 2018 season. There does seem to be some desire on the part of the players to negotiate the amount of time. MLB does not seem to be budging:

After informal conversations between MLB and the players’ union in August, some players walked away from those meetings resigned to the idea that, one way or another, a pitch clock would be put in place for 2018. They wondered, however, if the time between pitches might be negotiated to 22 seconds or 24 seconds.

MLB, however, wants the 20-second pitch clock. And whether the union agrees or not, MLB has the power to implement this and other rules for the 2018 season.

I still think the idea of paying players to play faster is a better solution.

November 20, 2017 November 20, 2017

Ballot of the Rich and Famous

The new Hall of Fame ballot is out:

The candidates, in alphabetical order, for the Class of 2018:

Barry Bonds
Chris Carpenter
Roger Clemens
Johnny Damon
Vladimir Guerrero
Livan Hernandez
Trevor Hoffman
Orlando Hudson
Aubrey Huff
Jason Isringhausen
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Jeff Kent
Carlos Lee
Brad Lidge
Edgar Martinez
Hideki Matsui
Fred McGriff
Kevin Millwood
Jamie Moyer
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Johan Santana
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa
Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

That’s a tough ballot with lots of deserving players. There are at least 13 players on the ballot I would consider checking off as worthy. In reality, the steroid people won’t get in, but we will see if the dam is breached for designated hitters and closers.

November 20, 2017

The Pros of WAR

Dave Cameron responds to the Bill James criticism of WAR:

For the MVP voting, perhaps WAR is less useful than James would like it to be. On that point, I agree, and I used other metrics when filling out my MVP ballot when I was assigned to be a voter. But for many cases, the questions people are attempting to answer by using WAR are better answered by a context-neutral metric. It might not answer those questions perfectly, but it at least aligns with the questions about which fans are curious.

Is there a place for a context-dependent version of WAR? Perhaps. But then again, we’re already accused of undermining the model’s credibility by having multiple popular methods of calculation. And as James himself found when developing Win Shares, tying individual player performance to team wins isn’t quite as easy as one might hope.

I have no problem admitting that WAR as a model contains a number of flaws, or that our specific implementation of the framework is also flawed. There are a lot of areas for improvement. Forcing it to account precisely for the exact number of wins with which each team finished, though, would probably make it less useful overall as a measure of individual performance.

This quite reminds me of arguments between my mother and father, in that they argued topics upon which they agreed. They were really arguing about how to properly express that agreement. If I may be so bold as to summarize the argument/agreement:

  • James: WAR is good for future evaluation, but does a poor job of capturing the actual value of a player for an MVP vote. Win Shares is better for this as it captures context.
  • Cameron: WAR is context neutral, so use other measures in addition when casting an MVP vote. Creating a single number that combines value and context is tough. Win Shares only includes situational context for the batter, not context created by the batter.

In general, I like having multiple measures of player quality. Often, the aggregate of different measures is better than the results of the best measure. So we should be happy we have different versions of WAR, and Win Shares on top of that.

November 19, 2017

Kapler as Manager

Via BBTF, players discuss Gabe Kapler‘s one-year managing in the minors.

Start in the weight room because everyone from the 2007 Greenville Drive has a Gabe Kapler workout story. Like the time they were on the road, maybe in Hickory, N.C., and Kapler joined a pregame session with his players. The manager grabbed a 50-pound dumbbell, outfielder Matt Sheely said, and put it between his legs.

“We sat there and counted,” Sheely said. “He did 50 pull-ups with a 50-pound dumbbell between his legs. We were all like, ‘Holy crap.’ I don’t care who you are. Oh my goodness.”

Or when Still, a fourth-round pick who was 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, realized his manager had topped him.

“I thought I was lifting a bunch of weights,” Still said. “I look over and, of course, Kapler is curling 20 more pounds than I was on each arm. Wow, that’s pretty embarrassing when the manager is in better shape than you are.”

Based on that, I suspect every Phillies player will be in the actual best shape of his life when the season starts. It’s a fascinating read, as Kapler appeared to successfully combine intensity with a connection to his players.

November 18, 2017

Extra Rates

I was curious to see if triples were continuing to disappear from the game, but thought it would be good to look at the rates of all three types of extra-base hits over time. This spreadsheet contains a graph of extra-base hit rates per game since 1957 (the period covered by the Day by Day Database). The moving average is based on four seasons.

First, triples do continue to disappear. After making a comeback in the 1970s, triples have declined in every decade since. Triples are comparable to one-run strategies like stealing bases or bunting to move runners. Taking an extra base is worth the risk of an out when runs are scarce.

Note that doubles and home runs tend to move in tandem, although from season to season, home runs tend to spike more than doubles. During the 1980s, for example, the doubles tend is fairly flat while the home run trend shows a nice hump.

Note two that the end of the PED era* saw a shift from home runs to doubles, as the two-base hit took longer to go into decline. Maybe balls that would have cleared the fence earlier became wall scrapers.

*That is a convenient name for the era. There were trends in ballpark construction, valuing hitters over pitchers, maybe even changes in the baseball that contributed to the rise in home runs.

Right now, the double rate is not really following the big spike in the home run rate. Players are hitting more doubles, but not a lot more doubles. Home runs blew past the 2000 season peak, while doubles have not approached the 2007 peak.

November 18, 2017

James Against WAR

Bill James uses Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge to demonstrate a flaw in WAR for rating the win value of players in a given season:

We reach, then, the key question in this debate: is it appropriate, in assigning the individual player credit for wins, to do so based on the usual and normal relationship of runs to wins, or based on the actual and specific relationship for this player and this team?

I have been silent on this issue for more than 20 years, and let me explain why. In the 1990s I developed Win Shares, while younger analysts developed WAR. At that time it was my policy not to argue with younger analysts. I was much more well-known, at that time, than they were, and it’s a one-way street. When you are at the top of a profession, you don’t speak ill of those who coming along behind you. It’s petty, and it’s just not done. Some of those people did take pot shots at me and some didn’t, but. . .well, it’s a one-way street. I’ve got mine; I’m not pulling up the ladder behind me.

But that was a long time ago. We’re not there anymore. WAR is not an upstart statistic; it is the dominant statistic. We can debate its merits on an equal footing.

This is an important article. The quick summary is that WAR is good for predicting future performance, but not judging the value of a player in a given season.

November 17, 2017

I Left My Hart

John Hart resigned from the Braves Friday:

John Hart left the Atlanta Braves on Friday, less than a week after being stripped of his role as president of baseball operations.

The decision was not unexpected given the hiring of general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who is now in charge of all baseball-related decisions. Hart was bumped to the role of senior adviser, but clearly had no real power.

The situation in Atlanta is messy, and while Hart may not have known about the rule breaking, the buck stopped with him. He was given a push out the door, and decided to take the hint and leave. Will another team hire him? I suspect the result of the MLB investigation into the Braves front office will weigh heavily on that decision.

November 17, 2017

Scherzer’s Stamina

Max Scherzer credits his ability to pitch deep in games to college baseball:

College teams have the major benefit of using their best starting pitchers once a week. Scherzer was the Tigers’ Friday starter, and as he pressed on in that Nebraska game through a scoreless eighth inning and past 115 pitches. Joba Chamberlain, Nebraska’s starter in that game and a future Yankees reliever, had long departed the game, needing 114 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings. Both talents did so knowing they wouldn’t throw again for seven days.

“When you’re exposed to those types of pitch counts, and you’re facing a lineup three or four times and pitching deep into a game, I really feel like that’s a benefit to pitchers in general,” Scherzer said. “I’ve always been a big believer that, even if it’s only once a month, you do need to really tap your pitch count to an extreme level, to 120, to really push it.”

The Japanese majors use the once a week model for their starters (they always know which day of the week a pitcher is starting). That hasn’t really translated into those pitchers going deeper in MLB games. Scherzer may just be an extreme outlier in pitching ability.

This article, however, notes that general managers are moving toward a more bullpen centric approach to building a pitching staff:

This year’s market is starting to reflect these in-game trends. Teams are willing to accept (even pursue) a 160-inning, 180-inning pitcher, and not aim for a 200-inning certainty. The spending pie on pitching is starting to change too as relievers get a larger slice of it, and some teams lean heavy on the back end of their bullpen to hold a lead. It’s a trend similar to what Jamieson saw when the Tigers moved to the Southeastern Conference and more teams started to put their best arms in the bullpen — to be certain to secure leads.

Might a team be better off with seven starters going deep in games? Probably not, as pitching ability is going to decline a great deal going down to the seventh starter.

November 16, 2017

The Need for Speed

Rob Manfred is going to speed up the game, and his speed waits for no union:

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred says rule changes to speed games will be put in place next year with or without an agreement with the players’ association.

Major League Baseball proposed last offseason to institute a 20-second pitch clock, limits in trips to the mound by catchers and raising the bottom of the strike zone. The union did not agree, and management has the right to impose them unilaterally for 2018.

Speaking Thursday after a quarterly owners’ meeting, Manfred says “my preferred path is a negotiated agreement with the players, but if we can’t get an agreement we are going to have rule changes in 2018 one way or the other.”

Of course, turning some home runs into fly-ball outs will speed things along as well.

I actually liked the quick five-second commercials during the World Series. I will gladly takes those if it means shorter breaks between innings. Cutting 30 second between breaks shaves nine minutes off a game with no rule changes.

November 16, 2017

BBWAA MVPs

The BBWAA voted Giancarlo Stanton MVP of the National League and Jose Altuve MVP of the American League. The announcement came Thursday evening.

Stanton won a very close vote, with Stanton and Joey Votto each receiving 10 first place votes. Stanton received more second and third place votes than Votto to win the award 302 to 300 points.

Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins edged Joey Votto of the Reds to win the National League MVP in one of the tightest races ever. The two-point margin was the third closest in NL MVP balloting and the fourth overall.

There was a tie in the NL in 1979 when first basemen Keith Hernandez of the Cardinals and Willie Stargell of the Pirates each received 216 points.

There have been two one-point margins, one in each league. In 1944, Cardinals shortstop Marty Marion won over Cubs outfielder Bill Nicholson, 190-189. The closest American League vote was in 1947 when Yankees center fielder Joe DiMaggio edged Red Sox left fielder Ted Williams, 202-201.

Anthony Rendon finished sixth, despite tying Stanton for the league lead in fWAR. He received one third and one fourth place vote. Kris Bryant, who had a better year than in 2016 when he won the MVP, finished seventh despite his club winning a division. He did receive one first place vote.

Altuve won going away, receiving 27 first place votes and three second place votes, with Aaron Judge getting two of the other first place votes and 27 second place votes. I thought this would be closer:

Jose Altuve of the Astros is the fifth American League second baseman to win the MVP, which has been awarded only 11 times to a second baseman.

Other AL winners were the Tigers’ Charlie Gehringer in 1937, the Yankees’ Joe Gordon in 1942, the White Sox’ Nellie Fox in 1959 and the Red Sox’ Dustin Pedroia in 2008. The award has been won by a second baseman in the National League six times, including two-time winner Joe Morgan of the Reds in 1975 and 1976. The others were the Cardinals’ Frankie Frisch in 1931, the Dodgers’ Jackie Robinson in 1949, the Cubs’ Ryne Sandberg in 1984 and the Giants’ Jeff Kent in 2000.

No position has had fewer MVP winners.

He was a very deserving candidate, but so was Judge.

If you look at the voting and go down the diagonal, there was good agreement 1-4. Even lower than that, the position of finish saw the player get the most votes in that slot often. It seems there was no mystery in the AL this season as to where the players ranked.

Congratulations to Altuve and Stanton on their well deserved honors!

November 16, 2017

IBWAA MVPs

The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America selected Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve and NL and AL MVP respectively:

Los Angeles – The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) announced the winners in its Most Valuable Player category Thursday, with the Houston Astros’ Jose Altuve winning the group’s American League award, and Giancarlo Stanton, of the Miami Marlins, being selected in the National League.

Altuve received 107 first-place votes (72.79%) and 1838 points while being named on 146 of 147 ballots (99.32%). Others receiving first-place votes include Aaron Judge (28), Mike Trout (7) and Francisco Lindor (2).

Stanton received 58 first-place votes (40%) and 1492 points while being named on 144 of 145 (97.96%) ballots. Others receiving first-place votes include Paul Goldschmidt (25), Nolan Arenado (20), Joey Votto (16), Charlie Blackmon (15) and Anthony Rendon (7).

Election results are as follows:

AL MVP

1st Place: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros – 1838 points
2nd Place: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – 1341
3rd Place: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 1067
4th Place: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians – 997
5th Place: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – 562
6th Place: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians – 389
7th Place: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox – 376
8th Place: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox – 280
9th Place: George Springer, Houston Astros – 207
10th Place: Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 202

NL MVP

1st Place: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins – 1492 points
2nd Place: Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks – 1115
3rd Place: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds – 1025
4th Place: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies – 1003
5th Place: Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – 959
6th Place: Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals – 577
7th Place: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs – 512
8th Place: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers – 253
9th Place: Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers – 243
10th Place: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals – 185

Ballot tabulations by Brian Wittig & Associates, using the Borda Method.

The IBWAA was established July 4, 2009 to organize and promote the growing online baseball media, and to serve as a digital alternative to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). Voting for full season awards takes place in September of each year, with selections being announced in November. The IBWAA also holds a Hall of Fame election in December of each year, with results being announced the following January.

Among others, IBWAA members include Tim Brown, Yahoo! Sports; Craig Calcaterra, NBC Sports Hardball Talk; Bill Chuck, Billy-Ball.com; Derrick Goold, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Jon Heyman and Jesse Spector, Today’s Knuckleball; Danny Knobler, Bleacher Report; Kevin Kennedy; Kostya Kennedy, Sports Illustrated; Brian Kenny, MLBN; Will Leitch, Sports on Earth; Bruce Markusen, Hardball Times; Ross Newhan; Dayn Perry and Matt Snyder, CBSSports.com; Tom Hoffarth and J.P. Hoornstra Los Angeles Daily News; Pedro Moura, Los Angeles Times; Tracy Ringolsby, MLB.com; Ken Rosenthal, TheAthletic.com; Eno Sarris, FanGraphs; David Schoenfield of ESPN.com; Jim Bowden and Bill Arnold.

Association membership is open to any and all Internet baseball writers, with a $75 lifetime fee. Discounts for groups and scholarships are available. Members must be 18 years of age to apply.

For more information please visit www.ibwaa.com.

A number of things surprise me about the votes:

  • I thought Altuve and Judge would be closer. I wonder if anyone thought, “Judge will win ROY, so I’ll vote for Altuve for MVP.” I voted for Judge, but I’m very happy with Altuve finishing first.
  • I’m very happy to see the outstanding seasons by Lindor and Simmons honored.
  • I thought Rendon would give Stanton a run for his money, but like the BBWAA voters, the IBWAA voters did not give Rendon much love.
  • Given that the voters didn’t like Rendon, I am surprised Stanton didn’t run away with the award.

The BBWAA announces their winners between six and seven PM EDT tonight. There is already one difference in the vote, as Jose Ramirez made the top three in the American League.

November 16, 2017

International Incident

Efforts to bring two way Japanese player Shohei Otani to MLB hit a snag with the MLBPA:

One week after MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball worked out a “tentative agreement” on a $20 million posting system for Japanese two-way megastar Shohei Otani, the players union balked at the arrangement on Wednesday, meaning there remains a significant hurdle to be cleared before Otani makes his move from the Nippon Ham Fighters to the majors, FanRag Sports has learned.

MLB had been hoping to receive approval Wednesday for its one-year extension arrangement. But the players union has the right to approve – or reject – any foreign protocol agreement. And the union decided not to accept, and instead to counter.

Once again, universal free agency solves all these problems. NPB could sign US players to improve their teams. With a lack of expansion in the US and baseball more popular World Wide, there is an approaching glut of better players. Japan could use that excess to improve their league, as could South Korea and Taiwan. Just allow players to flow where the money takes them.

I hope this is a sign the union will push for younger players to be more fairly compensated in the future.

Hat tip, BBTF.

November 15, 2017

BBWAA Cy Young Awards

Corey Kluber won the 2017 AL Cy Young Award easily. He received 28 of 30 first place votes, while Chris Sale received two first place and 28 second place votes. That’s about as strong as consensus as you can find.

The same was true in the National League as Max Scherzer wins his second Cy Young Award in a row and third overall. He finished with 27 first place votes with Clayton Kershaw garnering 25 second place votes. Kenley Jansen did finish fifth. A very good argument could be made for him winning the award.

Congratulations to Kluber and Scherzer on their wins!

November 15, 2017

IBWAA Pitcher Awards

The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America announced their Cy Young Awards today:

Los Angeles – The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) announced the winners in its Cy Young category Wednesday, with the Cleveland Indians’ Corey Kluber winning the group’s American League prize, and Max Scherzer, of the Washington Nationals, being selected in the National League, both for the second consecutive year.

Kluber received 118 first-place votes (80.27%) and 942 points while being named on all 146 ballots. Others receiving first-place votes include Chris Sale (29).

Scherzer received 91 first place votes (61.90%) and 846 points while being named on 146 of 147 ballots (99.32%). Others receiving first-place votes include Clayton Kershaw (50), Zack Greinke (2) and Corey Knebel (2).

Election results are as follows:

AL Cy Young:

1st Place: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians – 942 points
2nd Place: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox – 653
3rd Place: Luis Severino, New York Yankees – 328
4th Place: Carlos Carassco, Cleveland Indians – 178
5th Place: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros – 129

NL Cy Young:

1st Place: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals – 846 points
2nd Place: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – 658
3rd Place: Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks – 323
4th Place: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 276
5th Place: Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals – 127

Ballot tabulations by Brian Wittig & Associates, using the Borda Method.

The IBWAA was established July 4, 2009 to organize and promote the growing online baseball media, and to serve as a digital alternative to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA). Voting for full season awards takes place in September of each year, with selections being announced in November. The IBWAA also holds a Hall of Fame election in December of each year, with results being announced the following January.

Among others, IBWAA members include Tim Brown, Yahoo! Sports; Craig Calcaterra, NBC Sports Hardball Talk; Bill Chuck, Billy-Ball.com; Derrick Goold, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Jon Heyman and Jesse Spector, Today’s Knuckleball; Danny Knobler, Bleacher Report; Kevin Kennedy; Kostya Kennedy, Sports Illustrated; Brian Kenny, MLBN; Will Leitch, Sports on Earth; Bruce Markusen, Hardball Times; Ross Newhan; Dayn Perry and Matt Snyder, CBSSports.com; Tom Hoffarth and J.P. Hoornstra Los Angeles Daily News; Pedro Moura, Los Angeles Times; Tracy Ringolsby, MLB.com; Ken Rosenthal, TheAthletic.com; Eno Sarris, FanGraphs; David Schoenfield of ESPN.com; Jim Bowden and Bill Arnold.

Association membership is open to any and all Internet baseball writers, with a $75 lifetime fee. Discounts for groups and scholarships are available. Members must be 18 years of age to apply.

For more information please visit www.ibwaa.com.

I can’t argue with either vote. Sale faded as the season wore on, and Kluber came on strong. Scherzer won in a very strong field by virtue of staying healthy. I actually thought Kenley Jansen had a good case for winning the Cy Young Award this season in the NL, so I’m disappointed he is not in the top five. Still, the Nationals putting three pitchers in the top five is very impressive.

There’s already one difference with the BBWAA award, as Stephen Strasburg finished in the top three in that vote. We will know those results in the next hour.