May 27, 2014

The Strange Oakland Offense

The as of Tuesday morning, the Oakland Athletics set atop Major League Baseball in runs scored per game, 5.06. This is highly unusual, since Oakland plays in a park that tends to suppress offense. The A’s score 0.82 fewer runs per game at home and allowed 0.42 fewer runs. Compare that to the Colorado Rockies, a hair behind Oakland at 5.04 runs per game. They score 3.18 more runs per game at home. If you consider the road environment neutral, then the Athletics at 5.43 are indeed the best offense in the league, while Colorado in road games ranks 21st at 3.57 runs per game. So while the two teams look a like at a gross level, Oakland owns the superior hitters.

What’s really fascinating, however, is that the offense is completely different home and road. It’s not that all the A’s stats go down the same amount at home. They perform differently. First of all, they actually own a better slash line at home, .258/.339/.438, versus .243/.333/.390 on the road. The team hits more home runs at home, and many more doubles on the road. They walk and strikeout a lot more on the road, so they get fewer chances to put the ball in play. So why do they score more on the road?

It seems the Athletics take advantage of opponents mistakes on the road more often than at home. At the coliseum, Oakland batters drove in 103 of the 106 runs they scored. On the road, they’ve driven in 139 of the 152 runs the team scored. That ten more runs that came on things like double steals, wild pitches and passed balls, general errors, balks, etc. Whatever they are doing, they hit they way they should at home and the way they should on the road. The result is the top offensive team in the majors.

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