We can use the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to look at the potential of each league’s starting lineup for the All-Star game, and how well the manager captured that potential.
First the visiting NL. Mike Matheny gets a starting nine with an optimum lineup that produces 6.83 runs per game. Eight of the nine players own OBPs well above the league average. Even the low, .336 by Aramis Ramirez, is well above the NL average of .312. Matheny gets each third of the lineup right, with individual picks in each third disagreeing with the LAT. Matheny gets close to the optimum, with his lineup producing 6.74 runs per game. The worst order comes in at 6.50. You have to be a pretty bad manager to lose with a lineup capable of scoring over six runs a game.
Both the manager and the LAT agree with Andrew McCutchen leading off, Paul Goldschmidt batting fourth, and Giancarlo Stanton batting fifth. McCutchen is a great slugger, but with the highest OBP in the lineup and plenty of power behind him, he works best at the top of the offense.
For the AL, the LAT rates the lineup John Farrell constructed at 5.92 runs per game. The optimum lineup scores 6.05 runs per game, and the worst lineup scores 5.48 runs per game. So Farrell captures most of the potential. He could improve things by batting Jeter at the bottom of the order, but that’s not going to happen.
The LAT bats Jose Bautista first, as it did for Andrew McCutchen in the NL. Bautista is a power hitter, but he also leads the AL in OBP. There’s enough power behind him that the LAT can take advantage of his on-base ability to expand the offensive context for the rest of the order. The LAT agrees with Mike Trout batting second, Robinson Cano third, and Josh Donaldson batting eighth. Except for Jeter and Bautista, Farrell gets everyone in the general vicinity of where they should be batting.
Both managers field outstanding lineups, and it’s tough for either of them to make a mistake filling out their card. The NL does seem to have the advantage both in getting on base and pounding the ball. Felix Hernandez will have his hands full.
When I saw the AL lineup, I did actually think Farrell might have made a very clever ‘mistake’ by batting Jeter 1st, as then he can get his two ABs as quickly as possible and get someone else in who can actually hit (and even more, actually field)
Alex Hayes » Right, since these line ups change over so quickly, the manager can almost always get the right person in the right slot at the right time.
I bet Jeter plays 9. Either that or Farrell sends him out to start an inning and then sends in a sub.
I’m sure Farrell deeply regrets his decision. Imagine, getting only a double and a single out of two at bats from your lead-off guy!
(Tom, you nailed it on your second try, anyway.)
I was lucky enough to see it in person, and the entire environment surrounding Jeter was phenomenal. The very good people of Minnesota treated us all like gold, but outdid themselves with regards to their show of respect for Jeter. Well done, and thank you!