Game five of the World Series offers a rematch of game one as James Shields and the Royals challenge Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. The best of seven series is tied at two games apiece.

Shields has now made ten starts in the post-season for his career, and the results are disappointing. His regular season ERA stands at 3.72, his post-season ERA two runs higher at 5.74. His three-true outcomes in the post-season are a little worse, but not terribly worse. The big change is that he allows 8.8 hits per nine during the regular season, 11.5 during the post-season.

Hits allowed tend to be a combination of pitching and defense. Shields always played for good defensive teams. It’s possible that Shields is the type of pitcher who can dominate weak opponents, but teams of strong hitters, like you might see in the post-season, can square up his pitches.

Bumgarner, on the other hand, excels in the post-season. His 3.06 regular season ERA drops to 2.54 in 12 post-season appearances, 11 of them starts. He has not been consistent, pitching great in 2010 and 2014, but poorly in 2012. Overall, however, he’s a great post-season pitcher.

Bumgarner’s three true outcomes are close to his regular season numbers. He allows home runs at the same low rate, gives up fewer walks, which is balanced by fewer strikeouts as well. His hits per nine, however, drops from 8.0 hits per nine innings in the regular season to 6.9 per nine innings in the post-season.

I expect to see the Royals bullpen early in this game.

Enjoy!