The Cardinals and the Cubs pick up their series with Lance Lynn facing Jake Arrieta. Lynn’s ERA dropped a run in 2014 compared to 2013, despite very similar three true-outcome numbers and hits allowed. His FIP and xFIP went up, making the dip even more unusual. The reason seems to be that his BA allowed with runners in scoring position dropped from .299 in 2013 to .194 in 2014. I’m guessing he’s due for a regression to the mean. Arrieta improved his ERA two runs in 2014 by both increasing his strikeout rate and greatly reducing his walk rate.

Texas tries to get in the win column as they send Colby Lewis against Oakland and Jesse Hahn. Lewis stayed relatively healthy for Texas in 2014, making 29 starts. He really should be a back of the rotation starter, however, with a career ERA of 4.84. Last year it was up to 5.18, but with the lack of depth the Rangers were forced to use him often. Hahn comes to Oakland after a good rookie year with the Padres. It wasn’t all PETCO Park, either, as he posted a 3.19 ERA on the road.

Finally, Tyler Tyson Ross battles Zack Greinke as the Padres continue their series against the Dodgers. Ross pitched exclusively as a starter for the first time in 2014 and posted the best ERA of his career. Greinke was very tough at Dodger Stadium in 2014, allowing a .221/.265/.350 slash line versus .271/.307/.393 on the road.

Enjoy!