September 11, 2015

Massive Tie Scenario

Only two games were involved in the massive tie scenario Thursday night. The Rangers lost and the Indians won. That was a good result, as it made the five-way race for the second wild card tighter. It did lower the maximum number of wins for the three-way AL West lead and the five-way wild card to 88:

  • Astros 12-10
  • Rangers 15-8
  • Twins 16-7
  • Angels 18-5
  • Indians 19-4

The Indians and Twins play seven times, and this scenario has Cleveland taking six of seven in that series. The Twins sweep four games from the Angels, and the Angels sweep six from Houston and four from Texas. Then, the Astros take four of seven from the Rangers.

Here is the more likely 87 win scenario. There is still a lot of leeway. If this happens, it may take place closer to 84 wins:

  • Astros 11-11
  • Rangers 14-9
  • Twins 15-8
  • Angels 17-6
  • Indians 18-5

The other five way tie involves just five wild card teams. This works at 89 wins.

  • Rangers 16-7
  • Twins 17-6
  • Angels 19-4
  • Indians 20-3
  • Rays 21-2

This would require the Indians to take five of the seven games against the Twins, the Twins to sweep the four games against the Angels, and the Angels to sweep the four games against Texas. I also suspect that the Astros would get knocked out of the top spot in this scenario. More likely here is the 85 win scenario:

  • Rangers 12-11
  • Twins 13-10
  • Angels 15-8
  • Indians 16-7
  • Rays 19-6

For Friday, the best results would be:

  • The Indians beat Detroit.
  • The Rays defeat the Red Sox.
  • The Rangers fall to the Athletics.
  • The Twins defeat the White Sox.
  • The Angels beat the Astros.

The Astros play seven games in a row against the Angels and Rangers, so this could be a make or break week for the first massive tie scenario.

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