I meant to publish this yesterday, but I saved it as a draft. Sorry.
| St. Louis | Houston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Value | NL Rank | Value | NL Rank |
| Runs per Game | 4.97 | 3rd | 4.25 | 11th |
| Batting Average | .270 | 2nd-T | .256 | 13th-T |
| On-Base Average | .338 | 3rd-T | .322 | 12th |
| Slugging Percentage | .422 | 6th-T | .408 | 11th |
| ERA | 3.48 | 1st | 3.51 | 2nd |
I don’t really see why experts are picking the Astros over the Cardinals. The Cardinals have a clearly superior offense and pitching that is equal to the Astros. Most of the people who pick the Astros see the front three of the Houston rotation being untouchable. I just don’t see where that’s true. Clemens and Pettitte have excellent ERAs vs. the Cardinals, but the Astros are a combined 2-5 in their starts vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals have no trouble at all with Oswalt. I just don’t see the superiority of the Astros pitchers in the results from this season.
The run prediction formula also heavily favors the Cardinals. St. Louis scores 4.97 runs per game and allows 3.91. Houston scored 4.25 runs per game and allows 3.74. With the NL average at 4.44, the formula predicts the Cardinals outscoring the Astros 4.09 to 3.77. It’s really no contest.
You can see this in a position by position comparison. Not fielding positions, but batting slots. Of the eight slots, St. Louis is clearly superior in five of them (1, 2, 3, 5, and 7). Houston wins two (Ensberg over Walker in the 4th slot, Ausmus over Molina in the 8th slot). The sixth slot is a bit of a draw, with Grudzielanek having the better OBA but Lane making up for it with power. Basically, the Cardinals have a money ball lineup, with seven of their players having OBAs over league average, while the Astros only have three such players, and one of them bats eighth. And when the Cardinals win a slot, they tend to win it big.
The Astros have to start Backe in game 4. Oswalt might be able to start games 1, 4 and 7 but who knows if Pettitte is strong enough after his injury to risk it, and Clemens never pitched well on short rest. With Backe in the rotation, the Cardinals are guaranteed a mediocre pitcher to pound in one game.
There are too many tough outs in the Cardinals lineup, and not enough in the Houston order. The way Smoltz and Hudson (in his second start) handled the Astros is the way the entire St. Louis rotation is capable of pitching against Houston. I see the series as going to St. Louis fairly easily.
For the record, this is my absolute favorite NLCS preview I have read. It’s the first one that made me want to do cartwheels.
Man, do I hope you’re right.
Aren’t you getting a bit old to do cartwheels?
I’m just rooting for good baseball at this point.
well,
i didn’t like reading this.
sigh.
but brandon backe did VERY well against the cards in the nlds last year – especially the game in the Box…
but pettitte pitched lousy last night and i have nothing good to say bout the hitting or managing, neither. except chris burke, that is…
Not an excuse, but what was up with the plate calling in the 9th Game 1? Since when did the strike zone change to halfway up the shin. This ain’t golf Blue!!! Oh wait, I forgot, you would have called it a ball if it had been a Houston pitcher. I wish they would be consistent, because he was calling that pitch a ball earlier in the game. My 10 year old asked me why he was calling Isringhausen’s low pitches strikes for Pete’s sake! Had to vent. Go Astro’s
Cry as you may the Astros are going to the World Series. Cards have been winning all year and not able to take a few losses. The wheels are falling off.
Those of you who were at game 2 of the NLCS better save your ticket stub. It will be a souvinier from the last game ever played there.
Go Astros…..
These cardinals need to get rid a lot of these unmotivated, shit bum hitters like edmonds, sanders and walkers. They need to get people who want to swing the bat and hit when it counts. They’ve blown the series and now the Divsion Champion ship with a bunch of excuses like they “had great pitching.” So what? They hit the cardinals pitching!