There is an interesting discussion at Tom Tango’s blog about Eric Hosmer‘s lull and run in the ninth inning of game five:
So, did Hosmer intentionally not go down the line too much, to force Wright to make a play at 1B, so that Hosmer could run home? It would seem that the smart play from Hosmer would have been to go down the line some 5-8 feet, and either keep the batter from being putout, or if Wright goes to first, have a much easier chance of scoring.
No one was covering third at the time, and Flores was taking his time getting over there (when I saw the play live, I thought he had bumped Wright). There’s a discussion of the probabilities in the comments, but I don’t think that was going through Hosmer’s head. I like the suggestion that he thought the ball was a line drive, so didn’t break too far from the bag.
It also strikes me that he might have calculated the play as a steal of home, with the long throw and the short throw reversed. If you watch the video, Hosmer’s lead is about what a runner gets at first when he’s trying to steal. Hosmer starts moving as Wright goes into his throwing motion, but it’s more of a stutter step than a full take off. Of course, the two throws have a bit farther to travel than mound to home to second, and it was a first baseman, rather than a catcher throwing.
Has anyone heard Hosmer comment on the play?
Stop over-analyzing. The whole play was Duda choking on a play that first basemen make routinely in every infield practice sine the age of 9 in Little League. There was absolutely no excuse for Duda’s throw. As a right handed fielder, he didn’t even have to pivot. Step off the base and throw 90 fieet…Hosmer would have been out by at least five feet on just a decent throw to the catcher. Hosmer made a bone head play and got away with it because his first base counterpart Duda choked when the pressure was on.
Duda is finished. The Mets must send him packing. Anyone who chokes in the biggest lay of his life will never be a champion, and my guess is Duda forever will be haunted of throws to the plate hereafter. He cost the Mets the chance to go back to KC with the ball in the hands of deGram and Syndergaard…two really great chances to win this whole thing. I would package Duda and Murphy – two guys who prved they can’t handle the ultimate heat – for a good hitting good fielding first baseman who throws strikes to his catcher when the season and the world champiosnhip depend on it.
Rock Com » I believe Murphy will be a free agent, but your point is taken.
From the article on the Royals’ scouting report of the Mets, in the NY Post:
“I was shuffling along with David and as soon as he turned his head to throw to first base, I saw an opportunity to steal a run,’’ said Hosmer, who scored easily because Duda’s throw was wide of the plate. “With [Jeurys] Familia on the mound, hits were going to be hard to come by, and I had to be aggressive.’’
It doesn’t sound like he had it all worked out, or that he was trying to deke Wright into throwing, just that he was waiting to see if he would, and then dashed off. Sounds like an impulse play, albeit one with a mind to how hard it would be to score otherwise.
Interestingly, if he’d been caught, and with his .190 BA and three (I think) errors in the series, he could have gone down as the goat for KC if the Mets had rallied.
Travis M. Nelson » Thanks, Travis.
I thought of Alex Gordon not trying to score in last year’s game 7. Hosmer wrote a new ending to a very similar story. But since it was only the 5th game, the price of failure was reduced. I take his remark to mean that he realized the Royals had only a low chance of getting a hit with two outs, so his low-probability dash didn’t actually reduce the odds any.