November 3, 2015

The Sabermetric Royals

The Hardball Times explains how the Royals use Moneyball methods to win. I found this analysis spot on, as it was the reasons I thought the Royals would beat the Mets:

The Royals haven’t just won with defense, of course. At the plate, they’ve built a lineup filled with high-contact hitters in an era when power has become pricey and highly sought after. Moreover, in a time when hurlers have dominated and strikeouts have soared, Kansas City has assembled an offense that is less susceptible to the effects of elite velocity and pitching’s widespread supremacy.

As Ben Lindbergh wrote recently at Grantland, evidence exists that high-contact hitters perform better against power pitchers, a notion that has been borne out in the playoffs for two years in a row. (The Giants, too, have succeeded with a similar offensive makeup.) Although burly sluggers often can do more damage, they’re less consistent at the plate, and they’re vulnerable when facing hurlers who excel at getting strikeouts. Watching the Mets’ power arms churn through a formidable Cubs lineup demonstrated this concept to a “T.”

Watching this sereies, and remembering the way the Angles beat the Yankees in 2002, I believe there is another facet to the success of contact hitters against power pitchers. Bill James often pointed out in his Abstracts that a team strength often hid a team weakness. In terms of money, if a team spends a lot on power arms, they cut back somewhere else. If a staff strikes out a ton of batters, the place to cut back is defense, since the Ks will cover up the poor fielding. Contact teams like the 2002 Angels and the 2015 Royals exploit the poor defense of their power pitching opponents.

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