Jon Gray pitched a marvelous game against the Padres Sunday night, walking one and striking out 12 in seven innings. He held San Diego to two runs as the Rockies win a laugher 10-3. Gray is maturing into that kind of power and control, but so far, his ERA does not reflect that. Looking at his short career in the majors, in both seasons his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and xFIP are well below his ERA. That tends to indicate bad luck, and in his 93 innings pitched in the majors he allowed a.355 BABIP.

Much of it comes from Coors Field. Gray owns a 7.44 ERA in his nine starts at home, where long balls are a problem for him. In road games, his ERA stands at 3.73, which still seems high given his high strikeout rate. He also keeps the ball in the park on the road.

What he doesn’t do well on the road is prevent power with men on base. Batters overall hit .215/.291/.326 against Gray away from Coors, but those rates go up to .286/.347/.460 with men on base. Nine of the 14 extra base hits he allowed came with men on base. That may be bad luck, but it also may be the way Gray works hitters in that situation. In home games, however, his power allowed goes down in that situation (his numbers are just terrible overall in most situations).

Gray is a pitcher to watch, however. His underlying numbers are very good, and one would expect his ERA to regress toward his FIP eventually. The Rockies, however, may want to start him on the road as often as possible.