The 2017 series on team offense begins with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished first in the majors in 2016 with 5.42 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That John Farrell order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.04
Probable lineup: 4.99
Worst lineup: 4.80
Regressed lineup: 4.56
The Red Sox are in a good situation in that there is only a quarter run a game difference between the best and worst lineups. This default one is very good, just 0.05 runs off the best. If you look at the top 20 lineups, number three comes very close to this.
On the surface, the replacement of David Ortiz with Mitch Moreland should cause a drop in the Red Sox scoring. Ortiz projected to a .274/.357/.533 slash line, compared to Moreland at .251/.309/.430. The wild card, however, is Pablo Sandoval who appears to be healed and lighter. It’s unlikely that either of them will smoke like Big Papi.
There does seem to be a lack of power in the lineup. So many of the players get on base well, however, that even short hits will score runs given that RBI opportunities should be plentiful.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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